Banking Archives

Emerging Markets Debt Could Potentially Hit Record Sales in 2025

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 9, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Experts in emerging market debt advise that global issuance volumes in this sector year-on-year were up 20% for Q1 and Q2 for 2025, with issuances growing particularly quickly from the corporate sector. The boom in debt sales have defied missile attacks, an oil market with gyrating prices, and US policy, and tariffs putting a strain on global trade, resulting in a major increase in demand for local bonds who are having their best Q1 and Q2 in 18 years. White House policy has seen the greenback fall circa 11% this year, which has led to a fall in investor confidence resulting in an index of emerging market local debt to return in excess of 12% in the first half of 2025.

Regarding the fall in the value of the US Dollar, experts suggest that this has sent fund managers, asset managers, and the rest of the money managers to look elsewhere for better returns, and as a result, the markets have seen a surge in demand for fixed-income assets in emerging market currencies. Data released shows that hard currency bonds are only up 5.4% in the first half of this year as opposed to 12% as mentioned above in the emerging market arena, all this against the backdrop of the US Dollar having its worst performance since 1970 and falling against 19 of 23 of the most traded emerging market currencies.

Figures released by EFPR data (formerly known as Emerging Portfolio Fund Research) show circa USDD 21 Billion (an unprecedented amount) flowing into EM-debt funds, with some Latin American bonds returning some considerable gains. For example, some Brazilian government bonds have returned in excess of 29% whilst local bonds from Mexico (known as Mbonos) have generated a gain of 22%. Elsewhere, experts suggest that Ghana (Africa’s top gold producer) will, due to short-term borrowing costs falling to their lowest level in three years, resume domestic bond sales later this year.

The following is a part overview of data released regarding the total return year-to-date on emerging market bonds, Brazil Notas de Tesouro Nacional Serie F – 20.2%, Brazil Letras do Tesouro Nacional – 26.0%, Mexican Bonos – 21.7%, Poland Bonds – 19.9%, Hungary Bonds – 19.1%, Czech Republic Bonds 17.8%, Mexican Cetes – 17.4%, Nigeria Bonds – 15.8%, Egypt Bonds 15.0%, Romania Bonds – 14.9%, Taiwan Bonds – 13.8%, South African Bonds – 13.2% and Colombian TES – 12.8%.

Since the beginning of the year, data released shows emerging markets companies and governments having sold USD 331 Billion in debt in hard currencies such as the greenback and the Euro. However, not all future roads to emerging markets fixed income products are paved with gold, as tariff increases may yet put a dent in some country’s ability to issue new bonds. Donald Trump will be reviving tariff targets in the second week of this month, indeed, yesterday the White house announced that letters had been sent to 14 countries informing them new tariffs will be enforced on 1st August this year. The president also has stressed that he will put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS*”, confirming “There will be no exceptions to this policy”.

*BRICS – Is an intergovernmental agency and is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, (all joined 2009) followed by South Africa in 2010 as the original participants. Today, membership has grown to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with Thailand, and Malaysia on the cusp of joining. Russia sees BRICS as continuing its fight against western sanctions and China through BRICS is increasing its influence throughout Africa and wants to be the voice of the “Global South”. A number of commentators feel as the years progress, BRICS will become an economic and geopolitical powerhouse and will represent a direct threat to the G7 group of nations. Currently this group represents 44% of the world’s crude oil production and the combined economies are worth in excess of USD28.5 Trillion equivalent to 28% of the global economy.

It is believed by experts that the capture of the “Global South” encompasses all of Africa and South America, and BRICS seemed determined to have their own currency and move away from the US Dollar. President Trump views this as a direct threat to the USA and western Europe and will probably follow through on his threats to BRIC aligned countries. However, as President Trump alienates many of America’s traditional allies, BRICS are positioning themselves to replace the United States in the ground that Trump has ceded. The second half of 2025 will be interesting and over the next few months the markets will see if the increase in fixed-income volumes from emerging markets runs out of steam or goes on to new record highs.

Indian Regulators Come Down Hard on India’s Options Market

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 9, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Over the last five years, India’s equity derivatives* market has become the largest in the world, with a daily turnover (including options**) of circa USD 3 Trillion. India’s SEBI (the Securities and Exchange Board of India) has recently become concerned regarding this area of the market, where it feels that certain large participants have been allegedly using manipulative practices through the use of sophisticated technology, thereby gaining illegal profits and thus affecting the market’s integrity.

*Equity Derivatives – A derivative is a contract (e.g. futures, forwards, swaps and options) whose value is derived from the performance of an underlying asset for example, bonds, commodities, currencies interest rates, or in this case equities or stocks and shares. An equity derivative is a financial instrument which derives its value from the performance of the underlying stocks or shares and allows investors to gain exposure to the equity market without owning the underlying shares, and are widely used for hedging, speculation, and investment purposes.

**Options – A financial option is a contract that gives the owner or the holder the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset, (in this case equities, stocks) set at a specific price, (the strike price) on or before a certain date (expiration date). Options are a type of derivative meaning their value is derived from the underlying asset.

The SEBI are currently investigating an American company Jane Street Group over alleged irregularities manipulation of trades in the above market, but according to officials, (who wish to remain anonymous) the investigation will expand to cover wider markets. The markets being investigated are the Mumbai based NSE, (National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.’s) flagship gauge, the Nifty 50*, and BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) Ltd.’s benchmark Sensex**. The SEBI flagged manipulated and fraudulent trades that mainly took place in the Nifty 50’s weekly options contracts and its underlying constituents in the cash market.

*Nifty 50 – This is India’s leading stock market index and represents the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid companies listed on the NSE. It serves as a benchmark for the Indian equity market and is used by investors and analysts to gauge market trends and the overall health of the Indian economy.

**BSE Sensex – Sensex stands for Stock Exchange Sensitive Index and is one of the oldest indices of India and consists of 30 stocks which are listed on the BSE and represent some of the largest corporations which are also the most actively traded stocks. The BSE is allowed to revise the listing periodically and this usually takes place twice a year in June And December. Sensex is crucial to investors as it gauges market movements and aids understanding in the overall sentiment of the economy and industry-specific developments.

Last week, on Friday, July 4th, 2025, the SEBI through an interim order announced they would be seizing Rupees 48,4 Billion (USD 570 Million) from Jane Street in what they said was unlawful gains made by the company. In consequence, and after an in-depth investigation, the SEBI has barred four Jane Street entities from accessing its securities markets including the confiscation of the aforementioned rupees. Furthermore, the SEBI have accused Jane Street of adopting an “Intraday Index Manipulation Strategy” whereby in early day trading the company aggressively bought constituent stocks and futures thereby pushing up the index, followed by aggressive selling later in the day where the trades were reversed.

The SEBI concluded that the trading actions employed by Jane Street lacked any economic rationale and were designed specifically to artificially move index levels to benefit their trading positions whilst at the same mislead other market participants. Headquartered in New York, Jane Street Capital employs more than 2,600 people in six offices in New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Amsterdam, and Chicago and trades a broad range of asset classes on more than 200 venues in 45 countries. The company totally refutes the allegations.

Is the US Dollar Under Threat Due to the Policies of Donald Trump?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 2, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Donald Trump was inaugurated on Monday 20th January 2025, and since his elevation to the White House, the greenback has lost over 10% of its value against the Swiss Franc, Sterling, and the Euro. Global investors have been turning away from President Trump’s policies, and there is no better measuring stick for their renunciation of his policies than the US dollar. The last time the US Dollar fell so badly was post the Global Financial Crisis 2007 – 2009, when in 2010 the Federal Reserve in order to prop up the economy was excessively printing money.

However, this time around there is no global financial crisis; it is the policies coming from the White House such as expanded global tariffs, the on-going fight between President Trump and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to push interest rates down, where Chairman Jerome Powell* refuses to budge. Furthermore, there are two further policies which are scaring investors such as the open legal warfare against those who stand up against his policies, and “the big beautiful bill” which has just passed the Senate 51-50, which many experts feel will add to an already massive deficit. These are just a few of the pillars that make up the current administration’s policy and according to the value of the US Dollar are driving global investors away.

*Jerome Powell and Tariffs – On Tuesday of this week, The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell noted that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) would probably have reduced interest rates further without the White House’s policy of expanding global tariffs. He went on to say, “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs. We think the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what the effect might be”.

Experts suggest that tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation and certainly slow economic growth, and the President continuing to flip-flop on the specifics of levies and halting progress on trade agreements has given much worry and uncertainty on the outlook of the US economy. However, having said that, recently released economic data shows that tariffs have yet to impact prices or the labour market with further data showing that job openings rose in May, the highest level since November 2024.

Interestingly, many market experts, traders, economists, and analysts suggest that Donald Trump and his colleagues are ambivalent to the fall in the US Dollar. When questioned as to whether they support a strong dollar, the answer is always inevitably “yes” but little seems to be done in halting the current decline. Analysts suggest the financial markets feel that the White House is happy to see the US Dollar slide downwards in order to boost manufacturing in the United States.

Such speculation has led some observers to suggest that the President is playing with fire as the cost of financing the government has exploded to over USD 4 Trillion as the budget deficit continues on its path like a runaway train. Financing mainly comes from overseas

investors, and when it comes time sell up and bring their money home, a sliding greenback means they lose money. This, some observers feel, could lead to a vicious cycle where global investors continue to pull their funds out of the USA driving up borrowing costs resulting in further declines in the US Dollar with further economic uncertainty and so on and so on. If overseas investors get a whiff that a declining greenback is government policy the results could be catastrophic for the US Dollar.

As the world’s reserve currency, the US Dollar is already on the decline because at the close of business 2014 data showed the greenback accounted for 65% of global foreign exchange reserves and as at close of business 2024 this figure stood at 58%. However, that said, swift data shows that as recently as August last year the US Dollar is used in 49.10% of global payments and as at December 2024 data shows that 54% of global traded invoices are transacted in US Dollar and 88% of foreign exchange transactions are done in USD Dollars.

Analysts agree that in the near future, the US Dollar will undoubtedly keep its status as the world’s reserve currency. However, if the US Dollar continues to slide it will come under severe pressure from foreign investors, and there are already mutterings coming out of the ECB (European Central Bank) that the Euro could, in a few years’ time, be in a position to take over the mantle of the world’s reserve currency. The US has amassed a debt pile of USD 29 Trillion (100% of GDP) and it’s not stopping, it has lost its last remaining AAA rating and the budget deficit over the past few years has increased to 6% of GDP. President Trump without a doubt will have some short-term problems coming his way, but will things have turned around by the end of his presidency, and what will his legacy be?

Is the Russian Banking System Close to a Systemic Crisis?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 1, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Experts in the Russian banking arena, plus a number of Russian banking officials themselves, have advised that the banking system in Russia is close to a systemic* crisis. A number of officials within the Russian banking community have advised that bad debt on Russian banks’ balance sheets is in the trillions of rubles. Although official figures may mask the extent of the problem, an increasing number of retail and corporate clients are either deferring or defaulting on interest and principal loan repayments.

*Systemic Banking Crisis – this occurs when a significant number of banks within a country experience severe financial distress simultaneously, potentially jeopardising the entire financial system.

A timeline for this crisis of around 12 months is currently being bounced around by economists, experts, and Russian banking analysts. A number of officials have cited the alarm felt by banks over the non-payment of loan interest, as well as the non-repayment of loan principals. Many experts feel that the corporate and retail sectors within the Russian economy are struggling with high interest rates, with the key benchmark interest rate currently sitting at 20%. If circumstances fail to improve, a debt crisis may well spread through the whole banking community.

Experts contend that Russia’s two-tier economy is impacting the private sector as businesses have to contend with rising costs, slower demand, and decreasing prices for exports. On the other hand, huge benefits have been realised by massive state spending on Russia’s war machine and military industrial complexes. What is not well documented is the favourable loans that banks granted to help fund the war effort, and experts are hearing that there is more pressure on Russian banks as they seek repayments for these loans.

Headquartered in Moscow, ACRA is Russia’s rating agency which, in May of this year, warned of a “deterioration in the quality of loan debt”. They also went on to report that 20% of the entire Russian banking capital is tied up with borrowers whose creditworthiness is under severe scrutiny and may be downgraded due mainly to high interest rates. Furthermore, the military war machine’s appetite for more labour has severely impacted this market, resulting in massive labour shortages. At the same time, this has boosted the earnings of those in work, causing inflation to a peak at 10%.

At the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum, the Russian Economy Minister said, “We are on the verge of slipping into recession”. However, in a speech the following day, President Putin said, “Some specialists, experts, point to the risks of stagflation and even recession. This, of course, should not be allowed under any circumstances”. A number of political experts read this statement as Putin essentially saying this has nothing to do with me, it is officials who need to put this right. However, Russia is in the middle of a credit crunch, with data showing that Russian banks’ corporate loan portfolio is set to decrease by Rubles 1.5 Trillion (USD 19 Billion) in Q1 of 2025.

In mitigation of the credit crunch, and for the first time in three years, the Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 20%, with many experts and analysts saying that the rate is still far too high. However, earlier this month the Kremlin-linked CMASF (Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting) said there is an increased likelihood of a run on Russian banks. The CMASF also went on to say that the MOEX (Russian Stock Market) is a good indicator of heightened economic uncertainty, and it experienced a sharp drop after new sanctions threats by President Trump and his taunt that Putin is crazy.

On the sanctions front, President Trump has so far held off on his threats as it appears he really does not want to go to war with Putin – especially through the non-military option of sanctions. However, the European Union is already in discussions about further sanctions on the Russian banking sector, which could negatively impact the sustainability of Putin’s war on Ukraine. However, without further sanctions, the current Russian economy definitely has a negative outlook and, with rising inflation, labour shortages, and declining growth, could severely hamper Putin’s ability to sustain the current war with Ukraine. However, if there is a full-blown banking crisis – all bets are off, and who knows what the Kremlin might do to sustain not only the current war, but the status quo with the Russian population.

Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates to Zero

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 23, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Thursday 19th June, the SNB (Swiss National Bank) announced their benchmark interest rate was being cut by 25 basis points to zero and is now standing very close to a negative interest rate for the first time since 2022. However, the SNB has not ruled out moving the interest rate into negative territory and the Chairman, Martin Schlegel, stressed that such a move would be subject to great deliberation. The current decision has confirmed that the interest rate is the lowest against their global counterparts.

Chairman Schlegel in a radio interview said, “We are aware that negative interest rates are a challenge for many of our stakeholders in the economy. Negative rates also have negative side effects for savers, bankers, pension funds, and so on – we are very aware of that. If we were to lower rates into negative territory, then the hurdles would certainly be higher than with a normal rate cut in positive territory. When questioned about a rate cut at the next meeting on Thursday 25th September 2025, Chairman Schlegel sat on the fence stressing that officials will weigh data and forecasts at that time.

The cut in interest rates by a ¼ of 1% is the sixth consecutive cut by the SNB forced on the bank by the current strength of Swiss Franc which has caused consumer prices to drop for the first time in four years. President Schlegel was quoted as saying, “the SNB is attempting to counter lower inflationary pressure” and went on to stress “We will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust our monetary policy if necessary. The SNB had indicated back in March of this year that monetary easing was probably finished, but the currency’s role as a safe haven from global economic turmoil forced their hand, and they have hinted that more cuts may be necessary to stop inflows of the Swiss Franc.

Once again President Trump and his tariff policy which has disrupted global trade underscores the impact it has had on Switzerland. Dramatic shifts in policy by the current administration in the United States has certainly deeply worried investors with the result the Swiss Franc has risen to its highest level against the US Dollar, whilst in Q1 of this year inflation was driven below zero for the first time since March 2021. Another option to control the Swiss Franc is intervention in the foreign exchange markets, but this brings political pressure as Donal Trump has already accused Switzerland of being currency manipulators, a statement vehemently denied by Chairman Schlegel.

There is disagreement within the financial markets with some experts suggesting that unless the situation drastically changes between now and September that the current decision to cut interest rates to zero paves the way for a further cut in September pushing interest rates into negative territory. However, countering this argument other experts have said that unless higher tariffs cause a significant downturn in the Swiss economy the SNB were likely to hold at 0.00%. Current bets on another rate cut have been factored in by money markets at 57%. However, Switzerland’s two-year bond yield, which is highly rate sensitive, remains in negative territory, is a sign that financial markets still anticipate a September cut.

Bank of England Holds Interest Rate Steady

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 23, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Thursday 19th June the BOE (Bank of England) held benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25% – 4.00% with the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voting 6 – 3 leaving rates on course for a potential cut at the next meeting on August 7th, 2025. Two external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra plus the Deputy Governor David Ramsden preferred a quarter point reduction, however experts had already predicted a 6 to 3 vote in favour of holding rates steady. The money markets taking its lead from a more dovish vote by the MPC increased the odds on further interest rate cuts, priced in a further two ¼ of 1% cuts by June 2026. Interestingly, even before today’s announcement the financial markets had already priced in an 80% chance of a ¼% cut in August.

Governor Bailey warned that the world is in a highly unpredictable space with concerns that the current conflict between Iran (a major oil producer) and Israel could affect energy costs by sending them higher, thus negatively impacting prices by driving them higher. The BOE confirmed it is sensitive to events in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices where prices could be driven higher, which could then negatively impact the UK economy. The BOE noted that since their last meeting in May gas prices are up by 11% and oil had risen by 26%, however service inflation* an important indicator for the BOE fell in April from 5.3% to 4.7%

*Service Inflation – is a component of core inflation (excludes energy and food services) and reflects the rate at which the prices of services are increasing or decreasing in an economy. It helps economists, financial experts, and policymakers understand the underlying persistent inflationary pressures in an economy. Energy and food prices are excluded and can be volatile and subject to short-term fluctuations but are included in headline inflation.

Officials from the BOE noted that inflation is expected to edge higher in the coming months peaking at 3.7% in September from 3.4% in April. Experts have noted that the September figure is higher than the BOE’s benchmark target figure of 2%, however officials suggest that this figure will slowly come down with Chairman Andrew Bailey confirming “rates are on a downward path”. Officials also confirmed that they expect the economy to grow by 0.25% in Q2 of this year and statistics released by the ONS (Office for National Statistics) showed food prices had risen by 4.4% in the year to May2025, and overall goods prices rose by 2.0% the most since November 2023.

Analysis issued by the BOE suggest that officials and policymakers are feeling less pessimistic regarding the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the UK and global economy, a change of opinion from their more pessimistic outlook last month. However, they continue to stress whilst their outlook has changed, uncertainty over trade could still negatively impact the UK economy. The MPC whilst still trying to balance a cooling economy against elevated inflation is finding their work is being complicated by the Israel/Iran conflict and the trade policies of President Donald Trump.

Are Banks Using the Phrase ‘Non-Inclusive’ as an Excuse to Debank Clients?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 11, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

What exactly do the words ‘Debank’ or ‘Debanking’ mean in today’s financial world? In simple terms a bank can close, without notice or recourse, an individual’s or company’s bank account because the bank may consider them to be a financial, regulatory, legal risk or a risk to their reputation. Usually, banks are required to give two months’ notice but in the cases of money laundering, associations with terrorism, illegal arms trading and drugs, accounts can be frozen then closed straight away. However, the big concern is when banks debank clients who are innocent but come under the ‘not inclusive’ banner.

What is the meaning of not inclusive or non-inclusive? These terms have become highly politicised over the years, but essentially, they mean to undermine the dignity and worth of the person or people targeted. They convey a message that the individual does not belong or is inferior, based on elements of their identity they cannot control such as ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, race and other characteristics. However, innocent individuals devoid of any financial crime as stated above are still being debanked, and to wake up one morning to find that all your banking facilities have been taken away must be stressful in the extreme and have a massive impact on mental health wellbeing.

At the end of March 2025, the EBA (European Banking Authority) said de-risking or debanking is a major problem for the EU consumer, with ‘Unwarranted’ de-risking the third most relevant issue, with fraud and indebtedness the two most important issues. They pointed out that debanking affects the most vulnerable consumers, such as migrants, refugees and the homeless, and this group is being debanked not only in Europe but in the United Kingdom, the United States and elsewhere in the world. But there is also a group who are not homeless or migrants, but honest businessmen and individuals who are being debanked because they do meet the inclusivity that banks stand for*.

*Nigel Farage – is a member of parliament in the United Kingdom and is a right-wing MP and leader of the reform party. In 2021, the NatWest Bank Group debanked Farage for allegedly falling below account thresholds at their wholly owned private banking and wealth management subsidiary Coutts & Co. It subsequently turned out that his politics did conform to the ideals held by the bank and its directors so Farage was debanked, but after a two-year court case NatWest settled out of court and therefore the political angle was never proved.

Analysts suggest that many high-net-worth individuals and companies are targeted for debanking because their businesses or political beliefs do not conform to the inclusivity standards set by the bank or financial institution. The word inclusivity is actually masking the fact that the bank does not like the individual or company concerned, yet despite the total innocence of these people and companies they get debanked. This has been prevalent in the United States where crypto e.g. Bitcoin et al had become a challenge to traditional banks. It was alleged that senior crypto figures and companies were unfairly debanked when the Biden administration put pressure on banks to start debanking this group.

Whilst nothing can be proved, many experts feel that there is a lot of debanking going on just because the client does not fit the political or moral parameters of banks and their directors. As long as no laws have been broken these financial institutions should not be closing these accounts and remember there is no recourse, just thank you and goodbye. In 2024 the United Kingdom saw circa 407,000 accounts closed with many more being closed across Europe and the United States. The impact of such actions can devastate families and lead to depression and mental anxiety.

IntaCapital Swiss SA Geneva has total inclusive values but we are perturbed about the injustices being handed out to banking clients who have never broken any laws but are allegedly thrown out onto the streets for having incompatible views with the banks and their directors. If you have been debanked and are of a high-net-worth, we will be pleased to hear from you and look forward to helping you regain access to banking facilities.

Swiss Regulators Forcing UBS to Increase Capital by USD 26 Billion

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 11, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

In an attempt to defray the risks of another Credit Suisse debacle, the government of Switzerland has proposed, much to UBS’s consternation and chagrin, that UBS increase their capital requirements by up to USD 26 Billion. The UBS management has already criticised this move by the FDF (Federal Department of Finance), but despite intensive public lobbying by the bank’s officials, the FDF wants UBS to fully capitalise its foreign subsidiaries. The UBS proposal by the FDF forms only part of the department’s on-going and wide-ranging reforms to the financial sector of Switzerland.

In 2023, UBS, backed by a state sponsored rescue, took over its biggest Swiss competitor Credit Suisse, and part of that rescue now requires UBS to match 60% of the capital at their overseas/ international subsidiaries with capital at their head office or parent bank. The reasoning behind this move by the FDF, is to avoid the likelihood of another state sponsored rescue, this time, of their largest bank, which means UBS has to increase its common equity tier 1 capital by USD 26 Billion. The FTF has also said that UBS can reduce its AT1 bond* holdings by USD 8 Billion leaving a net increase in Tier 1 capital of USD 18 Billion.

*AT1 Bond Holdings – refers to the investments an individual or institution holds in Additional Tier 1 Bonds also known as contingent convertible bonds or CoCos**. AT1 bonds are a type of bank capital designed to absorb losses during a bank’s financial distress, making them a higher risk, higher yield, compared to a bank’s traditional bond.

**CoCo Bonds – are hybrid debt instruments (combines characteristics of both debt and equity) that are automatically converted into equity or written down when a pre-specified trigger point is reached which is typically a fall in a bank’s capital ratio. This mechanism helps banks recapitalise without needing to seek external equity under stressful conditions, reducing the likelihood of a taxpayer funded or government bailout.

The financial proposals by the FDF will be put out for consultation and should become law at the earliest by 2028 and UBS will be given between six to eight years to put the changes into practice. However, the government and the FTF have been locked in an open feud with UBS since April 2024, when the government first muted these changes. UBS will now have ample opportunity to lobby lawmakers and ask them to water down the current changes. One lawmaker from the Upper House said, “The real lobbying starts now and we are preparing for negotiations to last for years”.

The FDF has already added that alongside the capital reforms, it is proposing a targeted strengthening of the capital base at UBS, which will include the treatment of assets that are not sufficiently recoverable in times of crisis such as deferred tax assets. The FDF said that “regulatory treatment of such assets need to be tightened” and will result in UBS being required to add additional capital over and above of what is already required. In a note to employees seen by a major news outlet, UBS chairman said to the staff “We are disappointed by today’s announcement … we will stand our ground”.

The Debanking Crisis and How to Rebuild Financial Confidence

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 5, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

A new financial phenomenon has in recent years swept through the financial world and it is known as “DEBANKING”. Debanking occurs when a bank, at any time and in any place, closes a corporate, personal, or private account – or refuses to open one – without warning or providing any plausible or straightforward reason. Banking clients may have been with their bank for a short period of time or may have been with them for years, but the client can wake up one morning to find they have no banking facilities.

This means no cash or debit card, no visa card, any banking facilities will have been cancelled, they have been financially frozen out of the system, and there is nothing clients can do about it; there is no recourse. What many citizens and corporates across the globe don’t know is that debanking is not just an internal compliance issue when fraud, money laundering, terrorist funding or other criminal or illicit activity is discovered. Indeed, the innocent, law-abiding (never even has a parking ticket) individuals or entities can be kicked out without any due process; there is no appeal.

A question many in the financial industry have been asked is “When did debanking start”? The answers are somewhat fuzzy, but in essence the concept of debanking, particularly in a political or disruptive motivated context, never really had a fixed beginning date. It is a theme or phenomenon that has occurred throughout history evolving over time but has gained much traction and press awareness in recent years. Indeed, a high-profile debanking event took place in the United Kingdom when in 2021 NatWest Bank debanked a senior British political figure, Mr Nigel Farage MP* leader of the Reform Party.

*Nigel Farage – Nearly two years after NatWest Group closed his accounts at their wholly owned private wealth subsidiary Coutts & Co, the then CEO Dame Alison Rose resigned. Although the bank said the account was closed due to Mr Farage accounts falling below the required thresholds, Mr Farage obtained a document stating that the bank were at odds with his political views. The case was settled privately where the bank paid Mr Farage an out of court settlement, but political motivation in the case was never proved.

The Farage case highlighted the problems innocent individuals and entities face in today’s banking world. In the United Kingdom alone, in 2024 circa 408,000 were closed without appeal as opposed to 45,000 in 2016 – 2017. The same is happening in the United States, Europe and elsewhere in the world. The main focus on account closures by banks are se workers, (legal in the UK), migrants, refugees, those with poor financial histories, the homeless, PEP’s (Politically Exposed Persons), small business and those with links to crypto, (especially prevalent int the United States in recent years).

To this end, IntaCapital Swiss SA Geneva, will be pleased to hear from any high-net-worth individuals who have suffered the ignominy of having their banking facilities removed without any reasons given, with absolutely no chance of appeal or access to a recourse process.

Trump’s Tariffs Hobble U.S. Markets Whilst European Stocks Forge Ahead

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 4, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The week ending 30th May 2025 saw equities in Europe as a clear winner globally, whilst tariffs and trade wars initiated by President Trump have hampered and shackled the markets in the United States. Recent data released showed that out of the world’s ten best performing stock markets, eight can be found in Europe. Indeed, this year in US Dollar terms Germany’s DAX Index* has rallied in excess of 30% including such peripheral markets as Hungary. Poland, Greece, and Slovenia.

*The DAX Index – The DAX or its full name Deutsche Aktien index 40, is Germany’s benchmark stock market index, and reflects the performance of 40 of the largest and most liquid German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It is a key indicator of the health of the German economy.

The European STOXX 600 Index* is currently beating the U.S. S&P 500 by 18% (reflected in dollar terms) which as data shows is a record, which experts advise is being powered by a stronger Euro and Germany’s strong fiscal spending plan both current and in the past. Market analysts with knowledge of this arena suggest there is more to come due to attractive valuations and resilient corporate earnings, which when compared to America’s which is being gripped by fiscal and trade debt, make Europe a safer bet.

*European STOXX 600 Index – This index is a broad measure of the European Equity Market. Based in Zug, Switzerland, it has a fixed number of components and provides extensive and diversified coverage across 17 countries and 11 industries within Europe’s developed economies, representing circa 90% of the underlying investible market.

Equity bull experts suggest that Europe is back on the investment map, with some investment managers saying that recently there has been more European interest from investors than there has been in the last decade. Bulls went on to say that this rally may well be self-feeding and if European stocks continue to rise, they will be likely to attract fresh investment from the rest of the world. Indeed, some analysts suggest that if the trend away from America continues over the next five years the European markets could expect an inflow of circa USD 1.4 Trillion (Euros 1.4 Trillion.) Analysts suggest the gains so far this year were the result of a proposal by the German government to spend hundreds of billions of Euros on defence and infrastructure with some economists suggesting that this will boost growth across the European bloc from Q2 2026.

Elsewhere, a slew of Europe’s peripheral markets have had performances that have made investors sit up. For example, Slovenia’s SBI TOP Index is, according to data released, the second-best performing stock market up 42% (in dollar terms) just behind Ghana’s benchmark the Ghana Stock Exchange GSE-CI, (tracks all the performance of all company’s trade on the Ghana Stock Exchange). Other peripheral stock exchanges that have done well are Poland’s WIG20) Index up 40% whilst the benchmarks in both Hungary and Greece are both up circa 34%.

Experts suggest that 2025 could be a good year for European Stock Markets as some professionals are already betting that European stocks will outperform their counterparts in America. President Trump’s tariffs, the loss of the country’s AAA status, looming trade wars, and the current fiscal deficit of USD 1.9 Trillion (and predicted to climb), are all factors as to why investors are turning their backs on the US markets. Whether this will last, we will have to wait and see if all of Donald Trump’s predictions come true. Meanwhile back in Europe data released show that corporate earnings are in the spotlight having risen 5.3% in Q1 2025 against predictions of a 1.5% decline, another reason to perhaps bet on Europe.

Tag: Banking