Reserve Bank of India cuts Interest Rates for the First Time in Five Years
On Friday 7th February 2025, the Central Bank of India, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India), for the first time in five years cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%. Officials advised that the decision was unanimous and that the interest rate cut was in response to a downturn in the highest populated country in the world, and to shore up economic growth. The bank further advised that it was going to be proactive with liquidity measures given the banking system has had negative liquidity for the last two months.
Experts on the Indian economy suggested that the effect of the interest rate cut will be felt mainly by new loans and on those floating rate loans that are linked to external benchmarks such as SMEs (small and medium enterprises) and in the housing sector. Elsewhere, analysts predict the interest rate cut will have a negative effect on NIMS (net interest margins being the difference between interest paid and interest earned), in the NBFI* (Nonbank Financial Institution) arena. It is suggested that NIMS will come under pressure in areas where there is direct competition with banks such as the commercial loans or near-prime urban housing/ affordable housing sectors.
*NBFI – A nonbank financial institution does not have a full banking licence and cannot accept deposits from the public. A NBFI is not regulated by the government and are therefore not subject to the same laws and regulations as banks.
The rate cut comes on the heels of an injection into the domestic banking system by the RBI of USD18 Billion in an effort to ease a cash shortage in the economy and the February 1st, 2025, Union Budget where struggling middle classes received a tax cut of USD12 Billion. The governor of the RBI Sanjay Malhotra was quoted as saying “ the bank was keeping its policy stance neutral” with markets interpreting this statement as opening more pace for economic growth thereby signalling further rate cuts of 50 basis points to a full 1% in 2025.
Some economists predict that in Q4 2025 inflation will remain steady at 4.4% rising to 4.6% in Q1 2026, however it is estimated that from Q2 onwards inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This is the first rate cut by the RBI since the Covid-19 Pandemic crisis which is indicating a more dovish stance by the bank. This is possibly the main reason why Governor Malhotra was elected in December 2024 ousting his more hawkish predecessor Governor Shaktikanta Das, depriving him of a third term. Experts suggest that this was perhaps an intervention by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had decided the cost of borrowing had remained too high over a substantial period.
Sadly for the RBI, their current and future policies (like a number of countries around the world) may be somewhat stymied by the tariff policies of the US President Donald Trump. The Indian Rupee is trading close to record lows, there are record outflows by foreign investors, plus and further geopolitical and economic headwinds could see further complications for the Central Bank and government economic policy.
