President Elect Trump and his potential effect on Geopolitics

On Tuesday 5^th November 2024 America had a presidential election, and by Wednesday 6^th the world knew for certain that the Republican Nominee ex-President Trump was now President elect Donald Trump. Beating Kamala Harris by 312 electoral votes to 226 electoral votes, President elect Donald Trump also won the popular votes by over 3.5 million votes. In Congress, the Republican party controls the Upper House (the Senate) and is the leading party for control of the lower house (the House of Representatives). If indeed the Republican party ends up controlling both the lower and upper houses, this will make it easier for President elect Trump to successfully pursue his policy agenda.

Geopolitics

With President elect Donald Trump due to take the office of President of the United States of America on Monday January 20^th, 2025, political experts have been suggesting which world leaders will be the winners and losers when it comes to dealing with the new president. Below are a number of leaders whom the experts feel will either benefit or lose out under a Trump presidency,

Winners

1. Vladimir Putin – The President of Russia has already exchanged a number of calls from President elect Trump, where apparently the President elect urged him not to escalate the war. He further added he was interested in future discussions to discuss a resolution to the war. Political experts suggest that despite any rhetoric to the contrary both Presidents remain close, and that President Putin will benefit from a Trump presidency.

2. Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) – The Crown Prince is the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia and experts suggest he will use a Trump presidency to obtain a security pact with the United States. Under his last presidency Trump opened diplomatic ties with a number of Arab states and Israel, and he is expected to expand that to Saudi Arabia. Political experts suggest that MBS is close to Trump, (apparently MBS called Trump in the early hours of Wednesday 6^th November to express his joy at The Donald returning to power) and he and Saudi Arabia will benefit from a Trump presidency.

3. Benjamin Netanyahu – The Prime Minister of Israel and President elect Trump have long been allies and Netanyahu will welcome the return of Donald Trump as he has a somewhat fractious and tense relationship with the current incumbent of the White House, President Joe Biden. Indeed, Prime Minister Netanyahu has already spoken with President elect Trump three times since the election and announced that both he and Donald Trump see eye to eye on Iran.

4. Giorgia Meloni – Experts advise that the Prime Minister of Italy has an affinity with Elon Musk which, it is believed, will give her good opportunities to interact with Donald Trump. She is essentially a right wing politician, and with President elect Trump’s negative views on NATO she could well become a conduit between the EU and the White House.

5. Kim Jong Un – During his last presidency Donald Trump managed to have a relatively warm relationship with the North Korean Dictator, through various exchanges of written correspondence and two summit meetings. The return of Trump should be welcomed by Kim especially as he has rebuffed approaches from the United States during the Biden presidency. He has allied himself closer to President Putin and experts suggest that Putin’s relationship with Trump may well foster a renewed relationship with the United States. In his first presidency, as a show of goodwill, Trump reduced military exercises with South Korea and Kim will be hoping for much of the same again.

6. Narendra Modi – Political experts advise that the Prime Minister of India and Donald Trump have a close personal relationship and in public are seen to praise each other and confirm that they are friends. However, the Biden Presidency has expressed disappointment and frustration with the Indian government for their close ties with Russia who supply them with military equipment and cheap oil. President elect Trump has promised a deal to end the Russia/Ukraine war which may well give Modi space to continue dealing with Russia.

7. Javier Milei- The Argentinian President met Trump back in February for the first time and wasted no time in telling him what a great president he had been when he first took office. Furthermore, President Milei has also wasted no time getting to know Elon Musk who has told him that he is looking for ways his companies can invest in his country. Argentina is also hoping to secure are replacement for the currently in place USD44 Billion IMF (International Monetary Fund) programme which a Trump presidency might just help to get over the line.

8. Viktor Orban – The Prime Minister of Hungary is considered by many in the European Union to be the black sheep of the family (for his pro-Russian leanings), but at the same time President Elect Trump has praised Orban for his strong-man style of leadership. Prime Minister Orban has made known his dislike for the European Union and has enhanced that view by making a trip to Georgia’s capital Tbilisi, where despite protests against the recent government election, he congratulated the country on not becoming the next Ukraine.

Losers

1. Volodymyr Zelenskiy – The President of Ukraine is, so say a number of political experts, worried that under a Trump presidency there could be a cut back in military aid and in the event of peace talks, be forced to give up land to Russia. Furthermore, the relationship between the two presidents has been somewhat combustible ever since their telephone conversation on 25^th July 2019 where Trump allegedly leaned on Zelensky to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden in order to damage their reputations. This led to Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial, and with President elect Trump promising a swift end to the war, (which he blames on President Biden, not Russia), the new administration may not prove to be beneficial to Ukraine.

2. Xi Jinping – The President of China is already under pressure at home due to the state of the economy especially in the commercial and residential property sectors. His government has just rolled out a massive stimulus package to calm investor nerves and to boost growth, and President elect Trump’s threat of a 60% tariff on all Chinese exports to America would decimate trade and remove one of the main planks that support China’s economy. However, a ray of light comes in the form of Elon Musk, who has extensive business interests in China, and Musk is close to the President elect so he might be able to persuade Donald Trump not to be too fierce with China.

3. Keir Starmer – The British Prime Minister has got off on the wrong foot with President elect Trump. First, his left wing government was accused by the Republican campaign of sending volunteers to help Vice President Kamal Harris in her bid for the White House. The second gaffe comes from Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary who called the President elect a “Woman-hating neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath”. So, a great start to the United Kingdom’s relationship with the soon to be new President of the United States; interfering in a sovereign country’s election process and insulting their new leader. Despite murmurings from the President elect that the United Kingdom might be safe from the increase in tariffs (there will of course have to be concessions by the UK), political experts suggest that Starmer might find it difficult to persuade the soon to be incumbent of the White House that the US/UK relationship is still special. 

4. Claudia Sheinbaum – The Mexican president is waiting to find out if the President elect will make good on his threats regarding tariffs. If Mexico are hit with new tariffs, it will become a barrier to the goal of increasing exports to the United States through nearshoring*. There are other dark clouds on the horizon as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, used to be called NAFTA- North American Free Trade Agreement) comes up for review in July 2026. Mexico is currently the largest exporter to the United States: as of July 2023, China’s share of American imports was 14.6% whilst Mexico led the way with 15%. Immigration is also at the top of the President elect’s list, and no doubt pressure will be put on the Mexican government to continue to curtail illegal immigration. President Sheinbaum has already issued a rebuke to the President elect for his negative comments regarding her economy minister Marcelo Ebrard, and many experts agree that under the Trump administration Mexico could be in for a tough time.

*Nearshoring – This where a supply chain or production is shifted from overseas to a neighbouring country or nearby country, usually within the same continent or region. The above scenario where Tesla moved their supply chain to Monterey to supply computers to their Texas factory is a prime example.

5. Masoud Pezeshkian – The president of Iran and his government do not seem bothered by any potential impact a Trump administration may bring to bear. However, with the President elect coming down firmly in Israel’s favour he may well revert to the “Maximum Pressure” policy towards Tehran as he did when he was last in the White House. Certainly, Donald Trump will look without favour on Iran, but a ray of light could be both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who have repaired relations with Iran, and last time round were both supporters of the Maximum Pressure Policy. The President elect may wish to impose the strictest of penalties on Iran, but without the support of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, this task may well have become more difficult.

6. Emmanuel Macron – The President of France has already posted on X “Ready to work together as we did four years ago”. From an economic standpoint France has little to gain, but if trade tensions are reignited then France certainly has a lot to lose. The last time Donald trump was ensconced in the White House, tariffs on make-up, sparkling wine and cheese were just about avoided, but the core of that dispute still remains unresolved. The Trump/Macron relationship in the past has been very hit and miss, but with the President elect’s position on the Russia/Ukraine war at odds with the leader of France, and a possible trade war in the offing, a Trump administration may not be exactly what President Macron is looking for. 

7. Olaf Scholz – The German Chancellor was finance minister when Angela Merkel ruled the roost in Germany, and it is no secret that Donald Trump loathed him. Chancellor Scholz may well find it difficult to forget about the Trump/Merkel connection, plus the President elect has always been fixated on German cars and their trade surplus, so they may well be in the firing line of the new administration. Scholz and his government openly supported the Kamala Harris bid for the White House and President elect Trump will probably not forget the comments made by the Chancellor and his team. Some political experts are suggesting that a Trump presidency is a nightmare for them. Germany has the largest economy in Europe, and within that economy the automotive sector is the largest, which will be exposed to the President elect’s tariffs. On top of all that, the chancellor has a diametrically opposed view to Trump over support for Ukraine.

8. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – The President of Brazil on the 4^th November 2024 (the eve of the US election) stated that he was praying for a Harris victory and named Trump as the instigator of the antidemocratic riots in Washington DC, having lost the election to Joe Biden. Furthermore, the previous President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, is the main political rival of da Silva and a staunch ally of Donald Trump. Bolsonaro is dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics”, and a Trump presidency is emboldening the far right in Brazil. Experts suggest that under a Trump presidency, Brazil will face new challenges in regard to inflation, trade and environmental issues. Brazil is also an avid member of BRICS* which aspires to a new world order away from America and the US Dollar, and the new President when in office may not look too kindly on this country. 

*BRICS is an acronym for five regional countries and their economies and is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Their common belief is that by 2050, they will be the world’s dominant supplier of raw materials, manufactured goods, and services. The UAE have since joined along with Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, with Saudi on the cusp of joining along with Thailand and Malaysia. Their aim is to challenge the economic and political monopoly of the West. Interestingly, if Saudi Arabia does indeed accept membership of BRICS, the bloc will represent 42% of the global oil supply. 

9. Shigeru Ishiba – The Prime Minister of Japan is in the President elect’s sights because of their trade surplus, and the United States’ wish for Japan to pay more for the US military presence which is circa 55,000 personnel. The deal for the US military is up for renewal in 2026, where no doubt the Trump administration will demand an increase in payment. Furthermore, and with Trump’s sights firmly set on China, Japan will be asked again to curtail their exports of chip making equipment to that country. Previous dealings with the President elect were amiable due to the closeness of the late premier Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Sadly Ishiba does not enjoy such closeness, but if Japan plays their cards right they could become an even better friend by becoming a mediator in trade hostilities between the United States and China. 

Final Thoughts

Overall, the election of President Trump may well signal defeat for Ukraine in their on-going war with Russia. The European support for Ukraine was never going to amount to much without the United States being on-board. Donald Trump has proposed a quick exit to this war, which basically means no longer supporting Ukraine, and the will to resist will ebb away as the US withdraws their support. If the Europeans are firmly on Ukraine’s side, they will have to up the ante and increase their support, possibly alienating the Trump administration. 

As for the Middle East, Trump has come down firmly on the side of Israel, so we will wait and see what response comes from the USA if Iran decides to increase their attacks on Israel. The new administration may ignore calls for a ceasefire with Hamas and let the Israeli government decide this issue. How this will play out with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar again, we will have to wait and see. 

Elsewhere the Trump administration is focused on tariffs, and it seems a trade war is certainly in the offing. China is top of the President Elect’s hit list with a mouth watering 60% tariff on all China’s exports to the USA, with a maximum of 20% for the rest of the world. 

NATO is next on the Trump hit list, as defence spending collectively by EU governments was budgeted at USD 326 Billion for 2024, that is circa one third of what the USA spends. In 2017 the EU committed to increase spending on defence equipment to 35%, today only circa 17% has been achieved. The big question is will Donald Trump pull out of NATO, experts are at loggerheads on this, as some feel he will and the Europeans will have to make NATO Trump proof, or he won’t but will make life very difficult.