Tag: World News

Hedge Funds Leverage Bets in the Bond Mark Could Risk Instability

Recently, central banks have become worried about a trading strategy usually known as a basis trade* or cash futures basis trade, where hedge funds and similar investors place leverage multi-trillion dollar bets on government bonds. Indeed, the FSB (Financial Stability Board)**, in a recently published report has encouraged policy makers to increase oversight on market participants and the accompanying risks being taken “repurchase agreements/repos”*** which are backed by government bonds. 

*Basis trade – This is an arbitrage strategy that profits from the price differential between the current “spot” (cash) price of an asset and its relative derivative, which is usually a futures contract. Traders/hedge funds buy the cheaper asset and sell the more expensive asset, aiming to profit when the two prices eventually converge, and it is the US treasury basis trade that is primarily used by hedge funds.

The US treasury basis trade – Sometimes, treasury futures trade at a higher price (a premium) compared to the actual underlying treasury bond in the cash market. This usually happens because institutional investors or asset managers have a high demand for futures for a quick liquid way to manage risk, and they are willing to pay a premium. The hedge fund will buy the cheaper treasury bonds in the cash market and sell the more expensive treasury futures contract. 

However, because the price differential between the cash and futures price are generally very small, these trades are only profitable when done on a massive scale. Hedge funds borrow heavily (usually in the repo market) to amplify their returns, and whilst this enables them to generate steady returns, the trades can be exposed to significant risks. If prices move briefly in the wrong direction, it can trigger massive margin calls, forcing rapid sell-offs – which in turn can create broader market volatility.

**Financial Stability Board, FSB – Based in Basel, Switzerland, the FSB is an international body that monitors and makes recommendations about the global financial system, promoting international financial stability by coordinating national financial authorities and international standard setting authorities. 

***Repurchase agreement/Repo market – This arena is essentially a short-term loan where one party sells securities (e.g., government bonds), which will act as collateral to another party for cash and simultaneously agrees to buy them back shortly after at a slightly higher price. The price differential represents interest paid on the transaction. Obviously, the basis trade can only work in the repo market if the interest paid on the borrowed cash (repo rate) is lower than the yield generated by the treasury bond. The hedge fund then increases their returns by utilising immense leverage, which according to experts is in the region of 95% to 98% of the bonds value. 

Recently, warnings have been issued by both the ECB (European Central Bank) and the BOE (Bank of England) regarding basis trades and the risks they pose to their bond markets and financial stability. Indeed, in a report issued on Wednesday 27th May 2026, the ECB advised, “Their leveraged positions may have to be unwound quickly if bond prices react sharply to geopolitical or risk sentiment shocks”. The report went on to say that this could “erode the stable funding base of European governments” by amplifying price movements and increasing volatility. Officials from a number of central banks suggest that if hedge funds are forced into rapid liquidation of their positions, the fall-out could potentially lead to massive price moves impacting the cost of borrowing for governments, companies and consumers. 

Analysts advise that the cash against futures basis trades market represents today circa $1 – 1.5 trillion and under normal conditions acts as a lubricant for bond markets, as hedge funds virtually represent warehouses for government bonds as they absorb enormous amounts of sovereign debt. This in turn smooths the passage for governments to issue bonds. However, experts suggest that there could be cross-border contagion if there is a sudden huge unwinding of basis trades in the U.S. treasuries market (the global risk-free benchmark), as these trades will inevitably spill over into the UK and European sovereign debt market. 

This could lead to a tightening of global financial conditions, which will negatively impact borrowing costs, and because basis trades are heavily dependent on the repo market, any stress on this market by the unwinding of basis trades could, experts suggest, cause a liquidity freeze. As the leverage by hedge funds goes largely unchecked, global regulators are ramping up monitoring of this market. But as yet, have not decided on when and possibly how to impose regulations within the basis trade arena. 

What is Happening in the LNG Market?

Since the USA/Iran/Israel conflict began on 28th February this year, Global LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) prices have spiked significantly, with Asian LNG spot prices surging by 143% and European wholesale gas prices (such as Dutch TTF) increasing by circa 85%. As the world is well aware, the conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar Energy and Adnoc (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company), who together make up 20% of global LNG exports. They have turned to alternative methods to ship LNG out of the Persian Gulf.

In a significant move to ship LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, both exporters are adopting tactics pioneered by Moscow by going “dark”, and employing tactics that are being used by what is commonly known as Russia’s “Dark Fleet”*. Experts note that these covert tactics have already allowed Qatar and Abu Dhabi to slip a limited number of shipments through the blockaded Strait. Shipping commentators suggest these initial runs serve as a critical test case for expanding dark-fleet operations in the region. Limited data on the situation suggest that the tankers are switching off vessel-tracking equipment (AIS transponders), and are hiring crew from a recruiting company that is known to have provided personnel for tankers carrying sanctioned Russian LNG. 

*The Dark Fleet – A large clandestine network of aging oil tankers, shell companies and maritime service providers that operate outside international regulations to transport sanctioned oil primarily from Iran, Russia and recently, Venezuela. Experts and analysts estimate the fleet to be roughly in the region of 1,470 tankers that use deceptive practices such as disabled tracking systems, forged documentation and ship-to-ship transfers in open waters that enable them to bypass international sanctions.

Interestingly, perhaps even bizarrely, some analysts are predicting an upcoming glut in the LNG market, which does seem to be counterintuitive as the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted 20% of global exports. Indeed, Qatar has the largest LNG plant in the world, and the government has advised that it will take at least three years of repairs to get the plant back to 100% working order. Experts have suggested that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is opened by the beginning of September, a long-term surplus from 2026 – 2023 is on the way, which will result in lower prices.

Analysts suggest that the Middle East conflict has redefined the future of the LNG market as importers from the Persian Gulf, especially those countries in Southeast and Southwest Asia have been marooned without reliable energy supplies. These countries will have long memories and any future long-term contracts may well, due to lack of trust in supply  from the Persian Gulf, diversify away as a matter of priority and finance upcoming LNG ventures outside of the Strait of Hormuz. One commentator has gone so far as to say that the current US/Iran/Israel crisis will guarantee a construction boom in the LNG industry that excludes the Persian Gulf.

Before the Middle East conflict broke out, analysts were predicting a LNG glut from 2026 – 2030, and as such have predicted that this will be delayed by about a year. They suggest that buyers from Asia will help finance more projects in Africa, Latin America and North America. According to data released from the IEA (International Energy Agency), last year the construction of 100 billion cubic metres of new capacity was approved by the LNG industry. The IEA has also noted, “There remains a pipeline of over 700 billion cubic meters of projects globally seeking final investment decisions, including circa 110 billion in the United States that have received regulatory approval”. 

If the current pipeline of global projects is fully realised, global LNG supply is estimated to double. Should the Russia-Ukraine war draw to a close, an influx of legacy supply would hit the market simultaneously, amplifying the potential glut. However, the price of LNG would have to significantly fall in order for the market to absorb the increase in supply. However absorption happened in the past, so whilst experts expect this glut to arrive in the next 12 months, all eyes remain fixed on the diplomatic solutions to end the Middle East conflict. 

What are the Abraham Accords and its Impact on Muslim/Arab Nations?

The Abraham Accords are a series of United States brokered diplomatic agreements launched in 2020 during Donald Trump’s first term as President of America. Such agreements are to normalise relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim-majority nations. The accord was named after the biblical patriarch Abraham, to emphasise the shared roots of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. 

The accords marked the first formal recognition of Israel since Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. In September 2020, the first to sign the accords were the UAE (United Arab Emirates) and Bahrain, closely followed by Morocco and Sudan* in late 2020 and early 2021 respectively. *Please note that Sudan’s agreement remains unratified due to domestic and political instability.

At the heart of the accords is the shifting of Middle East foreign policy from a “Peace for Land” model to a “Peace for Peace” paradigm focusing heavily on practical regional growth. As a result of the accord, new avenues for tourism were opened up, including new direct commercial flights and innovation partnerships. Trade relations between the UAE and Israel increased dramatically resulting in a historic Free Trade Agreement.

However, as analysts and experts have been quick to point out due to the on-going Iran/ Israel/ United States conflict that began on February 28th this year, the accords are facing some significant headwinds. Pressure on the Accords has been increased by President Donald Trump, who has publicly demanded that Arab and Muslim nations such as Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia sign up to the Abraham Accords.

President Trump’s demands have faced a political backlash from these nations and have been met with immediate resistance with Pakistan (who are currently mediating between the USA and Iran), explicitly rejecting the proposals by President Trump, especially on ideological grounds. Indeed, Palestinian officials have said they have been betrayed by their Arab counterparts for reaching agreements and deals with Israel without first demanding immediate progress towards the creation of a Palestinian state.

In fact, experts suggest that President Trump has made the signing of the Accords as part of the peace deal that he is negotiating with Iran, and as such has ramped up the pressure on Qatar and Saudi Arabia to sign. This offer by President Trump has so far been met with silence from both Qatar and Saudi Arabia, however, both countries have said they will only recognise Israel if the government agrees to Palestinian statehood. Trump has even gone so far as to say that Iran could also join the accords, but this is highly unlikely as Iran’s regime calls for the destruction of the Jewish state.

However, whether or not Qatar and Saudi Arabia sign the Abraham Accords remains a moot point, as today both US and Israeli fighter jets struck Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and other targets. Meanwhile, President Trump was insisting a deal with Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz is now close, however, recent attacks by the USA and Israel may, experts say, forestall any immediate agreement. Some political commentators suggest that a peace deal is still far away as Iran will never give up their ability to produce nuclear weapons, and as such, the US/Iran/Israel conflict could reignite into a full blown war. 

Is The Global Oil Market Just Weeks Away From Imploding?

Experts within the oil arena suggest that the global oil market could reach the point of no return between the end of May and the end of June, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into the summer and beyond. Experts are advising that the blockade will reduce the levels of stock of diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and crude oil to critical levels by the end of May, when prices will go through the roof. 

One renowned expert advised that global oil reserves are currently at their lowest levels for eight years driven by trade frictions and refining bottlenecks, even though there are still ample supplies of oil . Estimates suggest that in Europe, and excluding government emergency reserves, commercial jet inventories could, by June, fall below the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) critical 23-day threshold. 

Analysts advise that any buffers to the shortages could well be reduced to zero by the end of June, pushing the price even higher than those predicted at the end of May, reaching levels of circa $200p/bbl or higher. The effect on households all over the world could be devastating as the cost of food increases, petrol and diesel at the pumps could see prices never seen before, and airlines dramatically reduce flights whilst increasing ticket prices.

Indeed, between them, global airlines have cut circa two million seats in May (2% of global aviation capacity) due to the frightening increase in jet fuel. Analysts advise that the most exposed country is the United Kingdom, being the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe. Refineries in the UK have been requested to maximise jet fuel production under government agreed contingency planning, though the Labour government refused requests by industry to reduce taxes. 

On-going fighting between Iran and the USA has increased today, with Iran bombing a critical oil port in Fujairah, UAE. The longer the war goes on, more critical problems for economies will surface, with inflation in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom expected to move upwards. Hopefully, an end to the confrontation can be found soon, otherwise global economies, industry and households will all begin to suffer. Experts advise that families and businesses who intend to fly in the coming months should book early to avoid potential disappointment.

Fallout From the Middle East War Triggers Aluminium Crisis

The Aluminium “Black Swan Event”

Analysts confirm that the global aluminium market will face a “Black Swan Event “in 2026, as continued conflict in the Middle East between the United States, Iran and Israel is triggering a supply shock. Experts point out that the Persian Gulf exporters account for circa 7 Million tonnes of smelted aluminium per annum, which is equivalent to circa 9.00% of global production per annum. Indeed, on the LME (London Metal Exchange) on April 16th this month, prices reached a four year record high of $3,673 per ton due to concerns in supply disruption. 

*Black Swan Event – This is a highly unpredictable event which can have severe consequences, however in retrospect, they often seem fairly obvious. Examples of a “Black Swan Event” are the Global Financial Crisis 2007 – 2009, the Dot Com bubble and the Covid-19 pandemic. In the case of the global aluminium market, analysts are calling it the largest single supply shock to any base metal this century.

Market Deficits and Regional Vulnerability

Analysts suggest that between now and the end of the year, the global aluminium market will face a deficit of circa 2 million tons, however, this may be a conservative estimation as increased shortages will be dependent on the length of the Middle East crisis, which has currently entered its 53rd day. Experts advise that Europe and the United States are particularly vulnerable due to current low stocks with the Middle East, accounting for 22% the USA’s 3.4 million tons of imported primary and alloyed aluminium, and 18.50% of Europe’s imported 1.20 million tons of the same. 

Supply Chain Limitations and Global Alternatives

Unfortunately, analysts suggest that there are few alternatives to fill the void left by the US/China/Israel conflict, as a serious amount of the metal quoted on the LME is of Russian origin, which has been sanctioned by western governments and is therefore untouchable. China is the world’s largest producer with an annual capacity of 45 million tons, however, their exports consist largely of sheet, rods and billets as opposed to speciality alloys and primary aluminium that western companies/fabricators require.

The Energy Cost Barrier

It has been suggested that idle smelters that have been mothballed both in Europe and the United States be restarted, however the cost of energy is going through the roof due to the Middle East crisis.With aluminium smelting facilities being highly energy intensive, bringing back idle smelters to production is a non-starter. Companies thinking about obtaining Russian aluminium would find a political minefield, especially as western governments are not in the mood to finance the Russian war machine.

Industrial Impacts: Automotive and EV Production

The effect of the aluminium shortage is seeping through to industry dependent sectors, such as the automotive industry where car makers are facing a dire scarcity of specialised alloys for engine components and wheels. Some companies are predicting production cuts by the end of the Q2, and the EV market which is highly dependent on aluminium, is facing cuts in production of up to 11.00% which will inevitably lead to job losses. 

Construction, Consumer Packaging, and Demand Destruction

Elsewhere in the construction and infrastructure sectors, increased aluminium costs are impacting construction budgets across the board, whilst data centres and healthcare construction facilities are facing budget uncertainty. In the consumer packaging sector which includes aluminium bottles, food containers and beverage cans, the arena is facing severe supply disruptions. Firms are struggling to secure supplies due to material shortages and rising premiums which is causing what is known as “demand destruction”.*

*Demand Destruction – This is a permanent or long-term decline in the consumption of a commodity or product, driven by prolonged high prices or severely constrained supply. It represents a structural shift where consumers switch to alternatives, adopt efficiency measures, or permanently alter habits, rather than a temporary dip in purchasing.

Economic Outlook and Consumer Impact

As with the export of crude and its offshoots from the Persian Gulf, experts predict that the price of aluminium will remain elevated due to the time it will take to get supplies of the metal back to normal. Once again, the consumer will bear the brunt of this damaging war whether through the increase in prices of household energy bills and the price of fuel at the pumps, or through the negative impact on jobs as companies cut staff due lack of available commodities.

Central Banks who have Kept Interest Rates Steady Despite the Iranian Conflict

Two months ago, on February 28th the United States and Israel launched a major military campaign against Iran, which after thirty 39 days came to a halt (on 7th April 2026) so peace talks could take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. The US delegation to Islamabad was led by Vice President J.D. Vance who yesterday announced, after 21 hours of talks, that negotiations with the Iranians had sadly failed.

However, since the conflict began, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil is shipped. During this time, the price of oil has shot up and down on the back of President Trump’s announcements, usually on his media outlet, Truth Social. Currently, jet fuel prices per the European Benchmark have more than doubled, rising from a pre-conflict price of $831/tonne to a closing price of $1,838/tonne on Friday, April 3rd. Similarly, the benchmark Brent Crude oil price has surged from approximately $70/bbl before the conflict to peaks exceeding $119/bbl. It currently sits at $102.22/bbl, following a closing price of $95.20/bbl on Friday the 26th.

Oil prices are now well above pre-conflict prices and as such, inflation is at the forefront of thoughts of policymakers at central banks across the globe. The recent failure of peace talks between Iran and the United States has resulted in the increased attention to inflation in the bond markets where, according to experts, the expectation is there will be no movement downward in interest rates but they will stay higher for longer. Many experts are suggesting that if the conflict carries on for much longer, and as increased energy prices are reflected in CPI (consumer price index), central banks may have to increase interest rates to battle rising inflation. Last week’s data released revealed that in the US there was the steepest advance in consumer prices for nearly four years.

However, last week a number of central banks had policy meetings where interest rates were kept on hold despite the conflict as can be seen below:

New Zealand

On Wednesday 8th April 2026, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the RBNZ (Royal Bank of New Zealand) kept the Benchmark OCR (Official Cash Rate) at 2.25% with officials noting, “If the increase in near term inflation is largely temporary, the committee envisages gradually moving the OCR to more neutral levels as activity recovers and near term inflation dissipates. However, any signs of significant second round inflation expectations would require decisive and timely increases in the OCR to re-anchor inflation expectations. The committee is vigilant to these risks”. 

Local economists and analysts suggest that headline inflation will hit 4.50% by June/July this year, outstripping the RBNZ’s target of 1% – 3% for 2026. The Governor of the RBNZ, Anna Breman, said that the MPC had discussed the possibility of a “relatively early” increase in interest rates. However, she later advised that committee members were not close to enforcing such a measure at this time. 

South Korea

On Friday 10th April 2026, the MPB (Monetary Policy Board) of the BOK (Bank of Korea), by a unanimous decision, held its Benchmark Seven-Day Repurchase Rate steady at 2.50%. The BOK Governor Rhee Chang Yong issued a warning that due to the United States/Iran conflict, inflation may outpace this year’s forecast as the economy is threatened with a bigger supply shock than was seen after Ukraine was invaded by Russia. 

Governor Rhee warned that it was too early to make any substantial policy decisions and will hold off from adjusting rates whilst waiting to see if the supply shock proves temporary or not. Officials have advised that following the failure of US/Iran peace talks, the bank has adopted a cautious stance of monitoring whilst maintaining steady interest rates amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty. 

Peru

On Thursday 9th April 2026, the Consejo de Politica Monetaria/MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BCRP (The Central Reserve Bank of Peru) left its Benchmark Reference Interest Rate steady at 4.25% for the seventh straight month. Officials noted after the meeting, that policymakers were of the opinion that the previous month’s surge in inflation would only be of a temporary nature. 

Officials went on to say, “it is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy (underlying inflation) will return to the target range towards the end of the year and settle around 2.00% as the effects of supply shocks gradually dissipate”. Among emerging market economies, Peru has one of the lowest interest rates and despite on-going political turmoil enjoys one of the more stable economies and currencies amongst Latin American countries.

Kenya

On Wednesday April 8th 2026, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) held their Benchmark Central Bank Interest Rate (CBR) at 8.75% finally ending a two year easing cycle. Analysts advise that the CBK’s mid-point target range for inflation is 5.00% and inflation currently remains below that figure, despite ticking up to 4.40%.

In a statement following the meeting, the Governor of CBK Kamau Thugge noted, “The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains, leading to significantly higher energy prices and heightened risks to the global economic outlook”. The Governor also noted that likeminded central banks in the region (including South Africa) have paused monetary policy decisions whilst awaiting the outcome of the current Middle East conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel. 

Governor Thugge went on to say that helped by appropriate monetary policy actions, inflation is expected to remain within the target range of 2.50% – 7.50%, and he further expected food prices to be stable due predicted good weather and a stable exchange rate. However, analysts warn that due to the consequences of the Iran/US conflict, prices of fuel and food may well rise, testing the upper limits of a 2.50% – 7.50% inflation band.

Romania

On Tuesday 7th April 2026, the NBR Board (Board of the National Bank of Romania – monetary policy committee) of the BNR (Banca Nationala a Romaniei) kept its Benchmark Monetary Policy Rate* on hold at, and for the thirteenth time since October 2024 , at 6.50%. Officials also advised that that the NBR had left unchanged the Deposit Facticity Rate**at 5.50% and the Lending Facility Rate*** at 7.50%

*Monetary Policy Rate – The main benchmark interest rate for 1-week repo operations which guides interbank market rates.

**Lending Facility Rate (Lombard) – The rate used by the central bank to provide overnight liquidity to banks.

***Deposit Facility Rate  – The rate at which banks can deposit excess funds with the central bank

Officials noted after the meeting that, “ High uncertainties and risks to the outlook for economic activity, implicitly the medium-term inflation developments, arise however from the Middle East war and the on-going energy crisis, via the effects potentially exerted through multiple channels on consumer purchasing power, as well as firm’s activity and profits, also by affecting the dynamics of economies and inflation in Europe/Worldwide and the risk perception towards the region, with an impact on financing costs”.  Put simply, along with many other central banks, rates are left on hold as the world awaits the outcome of the on-going crisis in the Middle East.

Analysts suggest, as does the above cross-section of central banks, that interest rates are being kept on hold until the on-going conflict between Iran/US becomes clearer. Or in some countries if inflation had spiked dramatically interest rates may well be increased. Financial markets are waiting to see what interest rate decisions will be made by the Federal Reserve, the BOE (Bank of England) and the ECB (European Central Bank) on 29th – 30th April 2026 respectively. 

The Loss of Helium Exports Due to the Iran Crisis Will Prove Critical

Helium is a colourless, odourless, non-flammable, non-renewable inert gas. It is commercially extracted from natural gas using fractional distillation*. As the second lightest and second most abundant element in the universe, helium has widespread applications across multiple industries and medical fields. The sudden disruption to helium exports via the Strait of Hormuz is now having a significant negative impact on the medical sector, semiconductor manufacturing, and several other critical industries.

*Fractional distillation is a laboratory and industrial process used to separate mixtures of liquids with different boiling points. In the case of helium, it involves a cryogenic process in which natural gas is cooled to extremely low temperatures. This takes advantage of helium’s exceptionally low boiling point (−268.9°C), allowing it to be separated from nitrogen, methane, and other components.

Roughly two-thirds of the world’s helium supply comes from the United States, with much of the remainder supplied by Qatar. With the Strait of Hormuz currently closed, supply lines have effectively been choked. This disruption is now threatening the production and operation of semiconductor-based technologies used in everything from automobiles and washing machines to smartphones, space systems, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Helium plays a vital role in semiconductor fabrication, particularly in cooling extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used to print microchips.

At present, around 200 helium containers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, each holding approximately 41,000 litres of liquid helium. Experts warn that the gas will gradually boil off within 35 to 48 days, rendering the shipments unusable. These containers were destined for South Korea and Taiwan, which together manufacture approximately 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Without chips, global supply chains face severe disruption. Some analysts have even highlighted the knock-on effect on defence systems, noting that modern AI-driven technologies rely heavily on semiconductor availability.

In the medical sector, the shortage of helium is already affecting hospitals and diagnostic centres worldwide. MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) machines rely on helium to cool superconducting magnets to extremely low temperatures. Current shortages are delaying refills, increasing operational costs, and threatening the continuity of MRI services. Beyond MRI systems, helium is also critical for NMR spectrometers, cryosurgery procedures, and respiratory treatments.

  • NMR spectrometers are used to determine molecular structures essential for research and pharmaceutical development.
  • Cryosurgery and cryoablation use helium’s ultra-low temperatures to freeze and destroy diseased tissue.
  • Respiratory medicine uses helium-oxygen mixtures (heliox) to treat severe airway obstructions.

Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum stating that the United States will withdraw from the war zone “with or without a peace deal” once Iran’s nuclear capabilities are neutralised. However, logistics experts caution that even after hostilities cease, it could take more than three months for helium supply chains to normalise. If there is significant structural damage to Qatari production facilities, shortages could persist for years.

White House officials have indicated that US military forces could begin returning home within three weeks. However, recent history suggests that such timelines are often optimistic and subject to change.

Without semiconductors, modern economies could grind to a halt. Chips underpin almost every aspect of daily life, from aviation and automotive systems to global shipping, communications, and digital infrastructure. In emerging markets, access to MRI technology is already becoming limited, and prolonged disruption could soon affect developed nations as well.

Beyond the geopolitical narrative, the helium shortage represents a critical vulnerability in global supply chains. If the conflict continues, the consequences of helium scarcity may prove more damaging than the geopolitical tensions that caused it.

Is Gold Losing Its Lustre?

In times of market turmoil and geopolitical unrest , gold is considered to be a safe haven with investors flocking to buy the yellow metal. However, at the close of business last Friday, gold extended its slide into a third consecutive week losing more than 6.00% and setting a record as its worst weekly performance since March 2020. Indeed, gold has shed more than 20% since the US/Iran/Israel conflict began and is currently trading at circa $4,400  – $4,435 per oz (showing great market volatility), from a high in late January of this year of just over $5,595 per oz.

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation

Experts advise that gold is less appealing when interest rates remain high, and with energy costs surging due to the Middle East crisis, financial markets see the distinct possibility of interest rate hikes by central banks to ward off an increase in inflation. Both the Federal Reserve, the BOE (Bank of England) and indeed the ECB (European Central Bank), all held interest rates steady last week with money markets locking in bets for interest rate hikes this year by all three banks.

Central Bank Commentary and Market Expectations

In the Euro area, Joachim Nagel, a Governing Council Member of the ECB has said, “as things currently stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could deteriorate and inflation expectations could rise on a sustained basis, meaning that a more restrictive monetary policy stance would probably be necessary”. There has been no official comment on interest rate hikes by the BOE, though they did highlight last Thursday concerns on the inflation front due to the Iran crisis. However, traders are betting on four interest rate hikes this year at 25 basis points per hike. 

ETF Outflows and Comparisons to 1983

Despite escalating geopolitical risk and geo-economic fallout due to the Middle East Iranian crisis, gold has failed to capitalise on its status as a safe haven, with data showing net outflows for gold ETFs reaching circa sixty tons since the start of the Iranian conflict. Analysts suggest the rapid fall in the price of gold is due to investor profit taking combined with sales of gold due to a higher dollar and rising interest rates. The last time gold plummeted so sharply was in 1983, when oil revenues collapsed and Middle Eastern oil producers dumped gold. 

Technical Support Levels and Market Volatility

Experts originally suggest that investors should look to a support level of $4,100 for gold if oil stays elevated, and an increase in bets on rate hikes by the financial markets keep ballooning. However, recently, gold briefly fell through the support level to $4,097.60, but as mentioned above it is currently trading in a range of $4,400  – $4,435 per oz. The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility as shifting investor sentiment and risk appetite, combined with algorithmic trading, continue to exacerbate price movements.

Geopolitical Outlook and Future Headwinds

The outlook for gold is based on the crisis in the Middle East, and if the situation moves towards a ceasefire, then rate hike expectations should diminish and should, experts say, trigger a recovery towards circa $4,800 – $5,000. Any movement in gold will also depend on the outlook from the Federal Reserve, with experts pontificating that if they look through the oil-driven inflation spike, it would remove a lot of the headwinds from gold. However, they went on to suggest that any increase in hawkish commentary would drive gold further down to new support levels. 

The Long-Term Investment Case

A number of analysts suggest that the fall in the gold price is a tremendous opportunity for investors to start buying, especially a staggered entry for long-term buyers. Analysts look to previous bull runs in 1971 – 1980 and 2001 – 2010 which saw a number of retreats that did not nullify any potential gains. Therefore, experts are suggesting that when the Iranian conflict is over, and the pressure on interest rate hikes deflate, gold will probably resume its safe haven status and prices will accordingly head north. However, analysts warn that the pace of any recovery in gold could be impacted by how long it takes for supply lines to recover. 

Update for Crude Oil Prices

Current Market Performance vs. Predictions

In December 2025, many experts, commentators and analysts predicted that there would be an oversupply of crude oil in 2026, resulting in an oil glut caused by an increasing supply and weaker demand. Analysts suggested that the price of Brent Crude will average $58 bbl. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures traded up to $70 per bbl. for the first time since September 2025. Geopolitical tensions have helped bolster prices, with the global oil benchmark* rising by around 2.75%, while its US counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, climbed to just over $65 per barrel.

*Key Global Oil Benchmarks – The primary benchmarks are Brent Crude (North Sea), which covers 80% of global traded volume and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (US), which is a key benchmark for the Americas. Dubai Crude is also used as a benchmark for Middle Eastern oil sent to Asia.

Impact of Geopolitical Escalations

The recent rise in crude oil prices has mostly been attributed to President Donald Trump, who threatened Iran with military action unless they agree to a nuclear arms agreement. Experts suggest that the threat issued via President Trump’s social media (Truth Social) yesterday evening, where he said that US ships had been ordered to the region and were ready to ”fulfil their mission with speed and violence, if necessary”, is responsible for the escalation in geopolitical premium of oil priced by potentially $3.00 – $4.00 per bbl.

Supply Disruptions and Global Conflict

Beyond the impact of geopolitical tensions on crude oil prices, the recent rise has also been driven by major supply disruptions in Kazakhstan. Prices were further supported last Friday after President Putin dampened hopes of a long-term settlement in the war with Ukraine. Experts advise that, despite the oversupply and lower prices that were predicted for this year, oil prices are expected to remain elevated for the time being as the markets wait for the next move by the White House and Iran. Analysts have reported that Tehran have stepped up negotiations with its OPEC+* counterparts and key Middle Eastern countries in an effort to stave off American aggression.

*OPEC+ – is short for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations and is a coalition of 23 oil-producing countries, of which the full members are Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. There are a further 10 non-OPEC Partner Countries that form the OPEC+ and make up the DoC (Declaration of Cooperation), consisting of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan. The whole group’s modus operandi is to cooperate to influence the global oil market and stabilise prices.

Short-Term Outlook and Future Risks 

Experts advise that in the short-term (the next 4 to 6 weeks), based on technicals, the price of Brent Crude is estimated to trade within a range of $60 – 70 per bbl, with any movement being driven by geopolitical or inventory headlines. Despite a mid-range of analysts’ assessments of 2 – 3 million bbl per day, it is expected that today’s prices of crude oil will remain at the current level. Today, however, Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, and analysts advise that this will definitely spike the price of oil and will no doubt, according to political and military experts, lead to military intervention from the United States.

Drill Baby Drill: Why Expanding Oil Production Still Matters for Economic Growth, Security & Global Stability

For more than a decade, public debate surrounding energy has been defined almost entirely by the imperative of decarbonisation, ESG screens, and the political urgency of transitioning toward renewables. Governments, sovereign wealth funds, and large institutional capital allocators have been encouraged — and in many cases compelled — to shift funding away from hydrocarbons and toward solar, wind, hydrogen, and batteries. Yet the hard reality that continues to assert itself is simple: global societies remain overwhelmingly dependent on hydrocarbons, both as an energy source and as the irreplaceable feedstock for industrial production and logistics.

The much-maligned “Drill Baby Drill” policy position, shorthand for expanding domestic oil and gas extraction,  is often caricatured as outdated, environmentally negligent, or backwards-looking. But stripped of the politics, the logic of increased oil production remains compelling on economic, national security, and industrial grounds. For companies operating within the energy supply chain, traders, producers, refiners, and logistical operators, this reality is especially clear: hydrocarbons are not disappearing, the world is still short of energy, and the opportunity to fund and profit from oil transactions remains structurally significant for at least the next three decades.

At IntaCapital Swiss SA, we specialise in structured collateral financing, trade finance, and capital facilitation for legitimate, well-documented transaction flows — including oil trading, allocation funding, shipping, and production-linked financing. From our vantage point in the capital markets, the pro-production energy thesis is not ideological; it is grounded in commercial practicality and global macro conditions.

Oil Remains the Dominant Energy Source — And it Will For Decades

The starting point is empirical reality. Despite unprecedented investment into alternative energy, hydrocarbons still account for:

  • Over 80% of the global primary energy supply
  • Over 95% of transportation fuel
  • Near 100% of aviation, maritime, and heavy machinery fuel

Even optimistic transition forecasts from major agencies — including the IEA, EIA, and OPEC — anticipate substantial oil demand well into 2050, driven largely by non-OECD population growth, shipping expansion, urbanisation, fertiliser needs, plastics, petrochemicals, lubricants, and synthetic materials.

The “energy transition” debate tends to assume that oil is primarily a motor-fuel problem. But one cannot build solar panels, wind turbine blades, semiconductors, medical polymers, or electric vehicle tyres without petroleum derivatives. Even renewables depend on hydrocarbons for extraction, smelting, transportation, composite manufacturing, and installation.

Oil is not just a fuel — it is a foundational industrial material.

Expanding Production Lowers Costs & Protects Consumers

The economics of energy supply are as straightforward as any other commodity market: when production lags consumption, prices rise. For the last decade, policy pressures and ESG capital restrictions have underfunded upstream development. As a result, reserves have not been replaced at the pace required to stabilise long-term pricing.

When oil supply is restricted, the effects cascade across the economy:

  • Transport costs increase
  • Logistics and freight inflate
  • Food becomes more expensive
  • Manufacturing input costs rise
  • Consumer goods absorb energy-linked price increases
  • Governments face inflationary pressures

Discipline in upstream investment may be popular with shareholders seeking dividend yield and with activists focused on decarbonisation, but it is economically regressive. The households most impacted by expensive energy are not the wealthy; they are lower-income consumers for whom fuel and food expenditures represent a larger share of disposable income.

Expanding production through offshore platforms, shale development, onshore drilling campaigns, and improved refineries throughout has the opposite effect: downward pressure on prices, improved logistics competitiveness, and reduced inflationary strain throughout the economy. In macro-economic terms, an expanded hydrocarbon supply is profoundly pro-consumer.

Energy Security Cannot Be Outsourced

Perhaps the most powerful argument for expanding domestic oil production is geopolitical. Nations that rely on imported energy — particularly from adversarial or unstable regions — incur strategic vulnerabilities. Europe learnt this lesson twice in modern history: first with the geopolitical leverage of Russian natural gas, and more recently with global LNG and diesel supply constraints.

Energy is strategic sovereignty. If a nation cannot feed, fuel, and defend itself without foreign supply chains, it does not control its own outcomes. For this reason, countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Brazil, Angola, and Canada are increasingly expanding their upstream capacity despite public climate rhetoric. The “Drill Baby Drill” position — when recast in strategic language — simply states: Domestic energy production equals national security.

From an investor and lender standpoint, energy security translates into long-duration capital commitments, infrastructure build-out, and predictable export revenue streams. These are precisely the conditions under which private corporate funding, trade finance, and structured collateral facilities thrive.

Oil Revenues Fund the Transition — Not the Other Way Around

Another uncomfortable truth: every successful renewable transition in history has been funded by fossil fuel prosperity. Nations that possess hydrocarbons — particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE, Norway, and the United States — are not abandoning fossil fuels. They are monetising them to accelerate modernisation, diversification, and future energy integration.

The slogan could be inverted as: Drill Baby Drill = Finance Baby Finance. It is not oil vs renewables; it is oil funding renewables. When oil is scarce and expensive, consumer acceptance of energy transition weakens, and governments lose the fiscal room to subsidise innovation. When oil is abundant and competitively priced, governments can directly channel cash flow into infrastructure, EV charging networks, nuclear modularity, and battery chemistry R&D. The global transition requires capital, and hydrocarbons remain the financial engine that provides it.

Market Liquidity in Oil Trade Creates Funding Opportunity

For firms like IntaCapital Swiss SA, the significance of expanded oil production is not merely theoretical; it directly influences transaction demand. The global oil and refined products sector is characterised by:

  • High-value spot and forward trades
  • Allocation-based offtake agreements
  • Refinery output contracts
  • Shipping and storage operations
  • Letters of credit utilisation
  • Collateralised performance obligations
  • Intermediated allocation structures

Where barrels are moving, there is demand for:

  1. Allocation funding
  2. Performance bonds
  3. Trade finance lines
  4. Collateral transfer facilities
  5. Warehouse & shipping finance
  6. Refinery output pre-financing
  7. Syndicated export structures
  8. Commodity-backed funding instruments

Historically, energy traders and allocation holders have faced funding gaps due to collateral requirements, KYC/AML scrutiny, or misalignment between banking risk appetites and commodity settlement cycles. Structured private capital has filled that gap — and continues to do so globally. Expansion in upstream production directly increases this flow, creating a larger universe of transactions requiring structured funding and credit enhancement.

Why ESG Capital Boycotts Created a Funding Vacuum

Over the last five years, major banks and sovereign funds adopted stringent ESG restrictions on hydrocarbon investments. While politically fashionable, this capital withdrawal has created a financing scarcity that private lenders, hedge funds, commodity houses, and structured intermediaries are now exploiting.

The irony is unavoidable:

  • Oil demand increases
  • Oil supply is constrained
  • Capital is restricted from upstream investment
  • Price volatility rises
  • Private capital steps in at a premium

Far from eliminating oil, ESG has made oil more profitable for those willing to fund it. For financing firms who understand the sector, this environment has created attractive margins, strong collateralisation structures, and heightened demand from credible counterparties seeking allocation funding or offtake financing.

The Global South Will Drive Oil Demand, Not the West

Another misconception often embedded in Western policy discourse is the assumption that energy demand patterns are uniform across the globe. They are not. Over the next 25 years, population growth and middle-class expansion in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East will drive incremental consumption of:

  • Diesel
  • Jet fuel
  • Marine bunker fuel
  • Chemicals and plastics
  • Fertilisers
  • Asphalt
  • Petrochemicals

Even if OECD nations reach aggressive EV penetration and renewable diversification targets, the Global South is only beginning its industrial build-out. This difference is not ideological; it is demographic and developmental. The global oil industry will therefore not contract — it will re-centre.

Conclusion: Expanded Oil Production Is Rational, Beneficial & Bankable

The “Drill Baby Drill” energy thesis is not a relic of the past. It is an economically rational, strategically necessary, industrially indispensable, and financially attractive proposition anchored in material demand. The global economy still runs on hydrocarbons, and it will continue to do so for decades. Transition will occur — but it will not eliminate the need for oil; it will simply change the demand profile.

For companies involved in the sector — from upstream production to trading, refining, shipping, allocation management and distribution — the implication is clear: the real bottleneck is not rhetoric, it is capital.

Funding Oil Transactions — IntaCapital Swiss SA

IntaCapital Swiss SA facilitates structured financing for credible oil and refined product transactions globally. We support:

  • Allocation funding
  • Performance bonding & collateral transfer
  • Refinery & pre-export financing
  • Offtake funding
  • Collateral-enhanced trade finance structures

Applicants seeking oil transaction funding, allocation financing, or credit enhancement are invited to present their proposal for review, including:

  • Allocation or supply documentation
  • ICPO, SPA, or equivalent
  • Transaction flow structure
  • Counterparty details
  • Required financial instruments or facilities

To discuss funding options in confidence, contact our transaction structuring team.