USA Archives

Global Market Jitters and Sell America

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on February 18, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The Shift in Global Sentiment

The US Dollar is viewed as the world’s reserve currency; US Treasuries are among the top safe-haven assets, and US financial markets are regarded as the most liquid and exceptionally deep. However, there is a sentiment running through many major financial centres that perhaps it is time for global markets/investors to sell America. This narrative has not taken place this year, as analysts look back to 2^nd April 2025, when they feel it began when President Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs and upended the global trading system as we knew it.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Implications

This feeling of sell America became more pronounced in January of this year when President Trump announced he wished to take over Greenland, which is part of Denmark and a NATO ally, which fired up more anti-American/Trump sentiment among Europe’s leaders. However, analysts advise that this sentiment has died down for the time being, but if there was a measured shift towards sell America, the implications for the US economy could well be severe. For many decades, the United States has enjoyed unparalleled faith in their currency and the treasury market from overseas investors who have ploughed funds into the US economy.

If sentiment moves away from US assets, as they are now considered not to be the safest of havens, experts advise that if overseas investors begin to sell, the US Dollar would weaken, and the availability of capital to both companies and the government would shrink considerably. Indeed, some experts fear that if US consumers face increasing costs as imports become more expensive, whilst at the same time borrowing costs go up, it could become an ongoing cycle where recession rears its ugly head as the federal deficit becomes less sustainable.

Eroding the Foundations of US Investment

Experts argue that since the early 1960s (if not earlier), overseas investors have been attracted to the United States due to several factors such as a stable US Dollar, a commitment to free trade, extremely deep capital markets, superior bond ratings, legal protections and an independent monetary policy ( independent Federal Reserve). If any of the above start being stripped away, analysts advise that financial markets would probably react negatively towards US assets and the greenback. An example of this is the debasement trade* where markets and investors sell currencies they feel are being devalued due to the incumbent government policies.

The Rise of the Debasement Trade

*Debasement Trade – A financial strategy where investors invest in assets such as Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies is known as a debasement trade, with key takeaways being rising sovereign or government debt, geopolitical instability, and inflation. Experts advise that investors have been selling major currencies and running to alternative assets such as gold (both physical and ETF), silver, Bitcoin, and even some collectables such as Pokémon cards, which in mid 2025 reached an all-time high.

Pressure on the Federal Reserve

President Trump’s continued attack on the current Federal Reserve, Chairman Jerome Powell, for not lowering interest rates and his rhetoric regarding the reduction of their independence has continued to spook financial markets. This was reflected in April 2025 when the stock markets (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) fell by more than 2%, and the US Dollar plunged to a three-year low. The above was described by experts as a significant event and occurred after President Trump described Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as a ‘major loser’ as he increased his attacks on the central bank.

Market Volatility and the Greenland Conflict

Another example of global market jitters came on 20^th January this year, following President Trump’s social media postings which threatened 10% – 15% tariffs on countries (including Denmark, France, Germany and the UK) if his European allies tried to block his takeover of Greenland. This triggered a sharp sell-off where the Dow Jones fell 1.8%, the S&P 500 fell over 2%, wiping off $1.2 Trillion in value, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.4% with tech stocks leading the way. Investors fled to safe havens, helping to push gold beyond a new record of $4,000po. However, the markets bounced back the following day, as in Davos at the World Economic Forum, President Trump announced a de-escalation, stating he would not use force over Greenland and promised a future framework of a deal with NATO, plus he withdrew the imminent threat of tariffs.

Resilient Corporate Growth and Hedging Strategies

However, several experts advise that it might be difficult to “Sell America” where corporate earnings growth has seriously outpaced their peers in any other regions across the globe, and despite the current risks, the pull of the USA is hard to dismiss. In the Eurozone, for example, the governments would find it difficult to weaponise US assets such as bonds, stocks and shares as most of the ownership is held by the private sector. Another scenario being offered by some analysts is that investors may be choosing to hedge their bets in the United States. This is where investors continue to purchase bonds, stocks, etc., but at the same time hedge their investments by purchasing derivatives, which will protect them against future declines in the US Dollar. This can take the form of selling U.S. dollars forward in the F/EX markets, which can put downward pressure on the greenback despite funds still flowing into the country.

Positive Indicators and Global Dominance

Despite the calls for “Sell America” and de-dollarisation, the outlook on the United States remains somewhat positive. Earnings growth projected by analysts is 14% – 16% EPS (earnings per share) for the S&P for this year, driven by corporate tax benefits and AI efficiency. US treasuries currently represent 68% of all global sovereign issuance and are still seen as a haven in times of financial markets and geopolitical stress, albeit slightly tarnished at the moment.

Future Outlook for the Reserve Currency

Analysts point out that emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are experiencing heavier inflows of capital as global investors seek to spread risk away from the United States. However, data released shows that the US Dollar accounts for circa 50% of trade invoices for global trade and remains the dominant currency in international transactions. Furthermore, the greenback accounts for circa 88% of all foreign exchange transactions and represents 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, so any thoughts of the USD losing its status as the world’s reserve currency can be put on hold for now. However, analysts have warned that “Sell or Hedge America” will still be uppermost in the minds of overseas investors in the United States.

The Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on January 29, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady

Today, and for the first time since July 2025, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) kept interest rates steady between 3.50% and 3.75%. The FOMC voted 10 – 2 in favour of holding rates steady, with the two dissents coming from Governor Waller (a President Trump nominee to replace Fed Chair Powell) and Governor Miran*, both voting for a cut in interest rates of 25 basis points. Post-meeting statements by officials said, “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilisation”. Interestingly, the language that officials used in three previous statements suggested that there were increased downside risks to employment, has disappeared this time around.

Background on Governor Miran

*Federal Reserve Governor Marin – In December 2024, President Donald Trump named Miran as his nominee for chair of the Council of Economic Advisors. He was confirmed by the United States Senate in March 2025. Governor Marin developed the Trump administration’s Tariff Policy, opining that import taxes are not inflationary.

Powell Signals Improving Economic Outlook

After the interest rate announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, “The outlook for economic activity has improved, clearly improved since the last meeting, and that should matter for labour demand and for employment over time”. Recently released data backed up this statement, showing steady employment, accelerating growth, and cooling inflation”. On the growth front, official data released last week for GDP showed an annualised growth of 4.4% for Q3 2025, with some experts suggesting it could reach 5.4% in Q4.

Political Pressure and Inflation Concerns

Chairman Powell has also noted, “The economy has once again surprised us with its strength, not for the first time.” However, once again, President Trump has hurled insults at Chairman Powell, calling him a moron for not lowering interest rates. The President’s frustration is likely to grow, as experts say Chairman Powell’s comments clearly suggest the FOMC plans to keep interest rates on hold in the coming months. Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Gauge, (their preferred inflation gauge), reflected 2.8% in November 2025 which is nearly a full percentage point above their 2% target, so as some analysts have suggested, this may be another reason to keep rates on hold as the Federal reserve attempt to balance their dual mandate of full employment and price stability.

Market Reaction and What Comes Next

Analysts advise that the reaction by financial markets to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was relatively muted, with traders pricing in two more rate cuts this year, the first cut being expected in June. Indeed, analysts suggest that the statement by officials following the rate decision was on the hawkish side, especially as downside risk to employment was removed from the language and economic activity was reclassified from moderate to solid. This suggests that Chairman Powell may well have presided over his last interest rate cut as he is due to retire on 15^th May this year. Global markets are watching with cautious anticipation as President Trump prepares to appoint a rate-cut advocate as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The two dissenters in today’s announcement are Trump appointees, and both Fed Governors are in the frame for selection.

What Happens if the U.S. Supreme Court Rules President Trump’s Tariffs Illegal?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on November 19, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are now subject to a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS). On 5th November, the Court heard consolidated oral arguments in Learning Resources Inc v Trump and V.O.S. Selections Inc v Trump, two high-profile cases challenging President Trump’s use of the IEEPA*** (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to impose global tariffs, specifically the Trafficking Tariffs* and Reciprocal Tariffs**. SCOTUS has agreed to fast-track its decision, expected in late 2025 or early 2026. A ruling against the administration would severely restrict the President’s ability to impose global tariffs and would significantly weaken the White House’s bargaining position in ongoing trade negotiations.

*Trafficking Tariffs – these are recent U.S. import taxes imposed by the Trump administration to address what it declared a national emergency relating to illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. The tariffs target goods imported from Mexico, China, and Canada, countries identified as key points in the drug supply chain into the United States.

**Reciprocal Tariffs – these tariffs are designed as a retaliatory or “tit-for-tat” measure, imposing import taxes that match tariffs charged by trading partners. Their main objectives are to correct trade imbalances, level the playing field, and pressure other countries to reduce their tariffs. Earlier this year, President Trump argued that the trade imbalance between the U.S. and many partners was excessive, and therefore imposed punitive tariffs that far exceeded those used by other countries exporting to America.

***IEEPA – the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (1977) gives the President authority to declare a national emergency and regulate international economic transactions in response to external threats. This may include imposing sanctions, freezing assets, or other restrictive measures. Historically, it has been used to counter threats such as terrorism and cybercrime. Under President Trump, however, IEEPA was invoked to justify the imposition of import tariffs, a use now being legally contested.

President Trump has warned that it would be “devastating for our country” if SCOTUS rules against his tariffs, calling the cases “two of the most important in our history”. Experts suggest that an adverse ruling could force the government to pay more than $100 billion in refunds. It would also eliminate much of the leverage the administration currently uses in trade negotiations and could create significant uncertainty in geopolitical discussions with the EU, China, and other trading partners.

If SCOTUS rules for the plaintiffs and strikes down Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose blanket tariffs, the President does retain several alternative legal mechanisms to reintroduce similar measures. These include:

Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which authorises the President to impose tariffs of up to 50% (or more in certain cases) on countries that take discriminatory trade measures against the U.S. However, there are limitations, including a 50% tariff cap unless discrimination persists and a mandatory 30-day delay in tariff collection.

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows tariffs to address a large balance-of-payments deficit. However, there are limitations in which the President can only impose a global tariff of 15% and for a maximum duration of 150 days. This may be less appealing to the current administration.

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act empowers the President to impose tariffs on national security grounds targeting specific sectors. There is a no tariff cap imposition or time limit, but it does require an extensive investigation process by the Department of Commerce. This must also be sector-specific, giving the President far less latitude than IEEPA.

While the President has additional legal avenues available, he will be hoping that SCOTUS dismisses the cases and rules in favour of the administration. Analysts note that the Court will need to weigh the increased costs borne by U.S. companies, the impact on America’s global reputation, and whether ruling against the President would diminish U.S. leverage in trade negotiations, geopolitical affairs (including the Russia–Ukraine war and Gaza), and international economic relations.

The Record-Long U.S. Government Shutdown Has Come to an End

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on November 19, 2025. Posted in News & Reports, Uncategorized. Leave a Comment

Global shares rose on Monday, 10th November, largely driven by sentiment that the historic U.S. federal government shutdown was finally nearing an end. The day before, on 9th November, the U.S. Senate advanced an agreement that would potentially reopen the federal government and end a shutdown then in its 40th day, which had furloughed federal workers, disrupted air traffic, and delayed food aid programmes.

On Wednesday, 12th November, the Senate voted on a House-passed procedural bill amended to fund the government until 30th January 2026. The Senate passed the measure and sent it back to the House of Representatives, where it was approved the same evening by a vote of 222–209. As in the Senate, Democrats largely opposed the bill because it did not include their key demand: renewal of subsidies for Affordable Care Act insurance policies, which are set to expire on 31st December 2025.

Later that evening, at 10:24 p.m. EST, President Donald Trump signed the legislation into law, officially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history (43 days). Experts estimate it may take federal workers until the end of the year to clear the accumulated backlog. Transport Secretary Sean Duffy indicated that current flight restrictions at major U.S. airports could take up to a week to lift. Delta Airlines’ CEO reported that over 2,000 flight cancellations linked to the shutdown will negatively affect the company’s quarterly earnings, with holiday bookings down by approximately 5%–10%.

According to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the shutdown cost the government USD 3 billion in back pay for furloughed workers and USD 2 billion in lost tax revenue, mainly due to reduced IRS tax-compliance activities. The CBO further estimates that the total impact on the U.S. economy could range between USD 7 billion and USD 14 billion, with Q4 GDP potentially falling by 2% due to reduced government spending. In a letter dated 29th October 2025 to the House Budget Committee, the CBO director noted: “Although most of the decline in GDP will eventually be recovered, the CBO estimates that USD 7–10 billion will not be recovered.”

Federal Reserve officials are now preparing to determine whether to cut interest rates again at their December policy meeting. Unfortunately, limited data availability — due to the shutdown’s impact on the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) – may hinder their decision-making. However, it is hoped that all necessary data will be available by the meeting on 10th December 2025, unlike the previous meeting on 28th–29th October, when they had only partial data.

The legislation signed by President Trump only funds the federal government until 30th January 2026. This stopgap gives Democrats ample time to renew their demands for the reinstatement of Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, which will have expired by 31st December 2025. Should lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on this contentious issue, the American public may once again have to brace for another federal government shutdown.

Switzerland Close to Agreeing a Lower Tariff Rate with the United States

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on November 13, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The Swiss government is reportedly close to agreeing a reduced tariff rate of 15% with the White House. However, experts caution that no deal will be finalised without the explicit approval of President Donald Trump. Switzerland has been subjected to one of the highest tariffs — 37%, announced by President Donald Trump at the end of July this year and implemented on 7^th August. The measure has posed a serious threat to key Swiss exports such as watches, precision machinery, pharmaceuticals, and chocolate, making them significantly more expensive in one of their largest markets compared with products from countries facing lower tariffs.

According to sources close to the negotiations, Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin has maintained regular contact with U.S. trade authorities, including a constructive video conference last Friday with Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative. Earlier this week, President Trump stated that he was “working on a deal” to reduce tariffs on Swiss exports to the United States, though he did not specify an exact rate.

Swiss officials have reportedly offered a package of investment proposals and pledges aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit. This includes greater market access for American energy firms in Switzerland, increased spending on U.S. defence equipment, and a commitment to expand gold refining capacity within the United States. Analysts suggest these concessions have paved the way for a possible breakthrough on tariffs.

In addition to official negotiations, when talks stalled in September, progress may have been revived by a charm offensive from prominent Swiss business figures — Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour, Cartier-owner Chairman Johann Rupert, and billionaire Alfred Ganter, co-founder of Partners Group, a key stakeholder in both Universal Genève and Breitling. Their visit to the Oval Office is believed to have improved the diplomatic tone, though it remained the task of Swiss officials to deliver a deal compelling enough to win over President Trump.

Analysts suggest that this potential agreement comes at a critical moment, as early signs indicate that high tariffs have begun to harm the Swiss economy. The Swiss National Bank recently stated that the economic outlook “has deteriorated due to significantly higher tariffs,” with unemployment rising to its highest level in four years. Financial commentators warn that tariffs are weighing on economic growth, with Q3 output (adjusted for sports events) expected to have contracted by 0.2%. Nonetheless, a 15% tariff would represent a highly positive development for Swiss industry, particularly the watch sector, given that the United States accounts for 19% of all Swiss watch exports.

Lukoil Declares Force Majeure in Iraq

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on November 11, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Russian oil major Lukoil has declared a force majeure at its Iraqi oilfield West Qurna-2, as it struggles under the recently imposed sanctions by the United States. The declaration marks the most significant fallout from the sanctions as President Trump continues his efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Lukoil, which has considerable exposure to international markets, has already failed in its attempt to sell its foreign assets to Gunvor (a Swiss commodity trader), after the United States signalled its opposition to the deal.

West Qurna-2, located approximately 40 miles (65 kilometres) northwest of the port city of Basra, is considered the jewel in the crown of Lukoil’s assets and is among the world’s largest oilfields. The company has maintained a global presence through upstream oil and gas projects, as well as refining and fuel retail networks across Europe, the Middle East, the Americas, and Central Asia. Outside Russia, Lukoil accounts for around 0.5% of global oil output, equivalent to approximately 500,000 barrels per day (BPD).

Lukoil owns 75% of West Qurna-2, which, according to data released in April this year, was producing about 480,000 BPD. However, following the declaration of force majeure, Lukoil now has the right to suspend contractual obligations. Experts note that the field will not be shut down entirely, as operations have been handed over to two state-run Iraqi companies. Indeed, SOMO (Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Company) has already cancelled three Lukoil cargoes scheduled for loading in November. Furthermore, Iraq has halted all crude and cash payments to Lukoil since the new sanctions came into force.

Analysts report that, according to an unnamed Iraqi official, if Lukoil fails to resolve the force majeure conditions within six months, the company will be required to cease production and withdraw from the project entirely. Lukoil’s ongoing difficulties have prompted what experts describe as a scramble across Europe to maintain operations at the company’s assets ahead of the 21st November deadline, when all dealings with Lukoil must cease. In Bulgaria, for example, the government has taken steps to assume full control of the country’s largest refinery to safeguard jobs. Several countries have also requested that Washington issue licences allowing them to continue operating Lukoil’s assets beyond the November cut-off date.

Despite Lukoil’s declaration of force majeure in Iraq, crude oil prices opened lower today, with analysts observing that market sentiment remains largely bearish due to projections of oversupply. Many oil market commentators suggest that with OPEC production increasing, global demand slowing, and economic growth weakening across major oil-consuming nations, bearish sentiment continues to dominate the supply side.

The Federal Reserve Cuts Key Benchmark Interest Rates

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on November 4, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Wednesday, 29^th October, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), for the second time in 2025, and in consecutive months, reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% – 4.00%, marking the lowest level in three years. The vote to cut rates was 10 – 2 in favour, with two dissenting voices opposing the decision: Stephen Miran and the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jeffrey Schmid.

It appears that the Federal Reserve is divided into two camps, with the dissenters concerned about inflation, while the majority are focused on the job market. Two non-voting members of the FOMC, Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who will rotate into voting positions in 2026, both indicated they would have preferred to hold rates steady this time.

Remarks made by the aforementioned Federal Reserve Bank Chairs suggest that, moving forward, there will be a lively debate over the next six weeks ahead of the next FOMC policy meeting on 9th – 10^th December. It is shaping up to be a direct contest between those concerned about persistent inflation and those prioritising support for the labour market. Dallas Fed chair Logan remarked, “I’d find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labour market will cool more rapidly.”

At a press conference following the rate cut, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell advised that another reduction at the next policy meeting in December “is not a foregone conclusion”. The Chairman added, “There were strongly differing views on how to proceed in December during the meeting today and we have not made a decision about December”. Therefore, no decision has yet been made regarding future rate cuts, with Powell emphasising that any such move should not be seen as inevitable.

The Federal Reserve has a so-called dual mandate requiring policymakers to maintain both low unemployment and low inflation. Chairman Powell noted in October that risks to the labour market are increasing, though experts have advised that the ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, a factor that may be hampering FOMC decision-making. One analyst commented, “A prolonged government shutdown and on-going tariff negotiations continue to introduce significant uncertainty into the immediate monetary policy outlook”.

Experts suggest that the Federal Reserve’s hands are somewhat limited due to the near blackout on economic data. However, the government did unexpectedly release the September 2025 CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures on 24^th October, which showed a 3% annual increase and 0.3% monthly increase, both lower than anticipated. The FOMC remains committed to both sides of its dual mandate, and with economic uncertainty still elevated, has seemingly opted to prioritise employment for now. Inflation, however, remains above target, and if next month’s data (assuming the government shutdown ends) shows an uptick in inflation, it could see renewed tension between the labour market and inflation factions within the FOMC.

Russia Hit with New Oil Sanctions

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on October 29, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Last week on 22^nd of October, in Washington D.C, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) announced that further sanctions on major Russian oil companies were being imposed due to Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine. Experts advise that the aim of this increased pressure on Russia’s energy sector is to weaken President Putin’s ability to generate revenue for the war effort and to sustain an already fragile economy.

The sanctioning of both Rosneft and Lukoil* by the United States coincided with the EU’s 19^th package of sanctions on Russia, which included a ban on Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports. The United Kingdom had also added to its own sanctions list the previous week.

Rosneft – A vertically integrated energy company specialising in the exploration, production, refining, transportation, and sale of petroleum, petroleum products, and LNG. The Russian Government owns around 40.4% of the company, with the Qatar Investment Authority also holding a significant stake.

Lukoil – Engaged in the exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas across Russian and international markets. Lukoil is privately owned, with its founder, Vagit Alekperov, holding approximately 28.3%.

President Trump’s sanction package targeting Rosneft and Lukoil has triggered repercussions in the world’s two most populated nations, India and China. Experts report that a number of oil companies in both countries have begun cancelling orders ahead of the sanction deadline of 21^st November 2025, fearing potential retaliation from the White House for sanction busting. Analysts estimate that Russia exports between 3.5 and 4.5 million barrels of oil per day to Asia, with a significant portion coming from the newly sanctioned firms. However, experts warn that once the deadline passes, exports of between 1.4 and 2.6 million barrels per day to China and India could completely dry up.

Under OFAC’s latest rules, U.S. secondary sanctions may also be imposed for providing material support to Lukoil or Rosneft, or for operating within Russia’s energy sector. In essence, sanctions can be triggered by any significant transaction involving these companies. The threat of being banned from the U.S. financial system is expected to deter potential sanction busters from engaging in new or existing business with either firm.

The EU’s new sanctions package will prohibit the import or transfer, directly or indirectly, of Russian LNG from 25th April 2026, except for long-term contracts entered into before 17th June 2025. The EU’s implementation has been slower than that of the U.S. and UK due to its greater dependence on Russian LNG.

Meanwhile, both the European Union and the United Kingdom continue to target vessels operating within the so-called shadow fleet*, which is used to transport Russian oil and bypass Western sanctions. The UK has also imposed asset freezes on several companies supplying Russia with critical electronics for missiles and drones. Additionally, the EU has identified 45 new companies and entities that are directly supporting Russia’s war effort by helping to circumvent export restrictions on advanced technology.

Shadow Fleet – A collection of around 45 ageing, uninsured oil tankers used by Russia to export oil while evading Western sanctions. These vessels typically have opaque ownership structures, often sail under false flags, and operate outside the Western financial system. This enables Russia to sell oil below the Western-imposed price cap of USD 60 per barrel, designed to limit Moscow’s export revenues.

The latest round of sanctions is expected to result in increased enforcement activity and greater regulatory scrutiny, particularly if the United States maintains its renewed aggressiveness. With relatively short wind-down periods for both Lukoil and Rosneft, sanctioning authorities will need to act swiftly and with heightened diligence. Strong cross-border coordination among multinational organisations will be essential to ensure a robust and effective sanctions compliance framework.

President Trump and the Tariff Trade Wars

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on October 29, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Thursday, 23rd October, President Donald Trump announced that he was halting all trade negotiations with Canada, blaming an advertisement funded by the Ontario Government, which cast negative connotations on his tariff plans by featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan. The advert used excerpts from a 1987 speech in which President Reagan criticised tariffs as outdated while defending the principles of free trade. Last year, the United States and Canada exchanged in excess of USD 900 billion in goods and services, and the cancellation of trade talks by President Trump has cast a cloud of uncertainty over bilateral trade relations between the two nations.

President Trump’s announcement, made via his Truth social media stated:

“Tariffs are very important to the National Security and economy of the U.S.A. Based on their egregious behaviour, all trade negotiations with Canada are hereby terminated”.

Experts suggest that the President is convinced the Ontario Government timed the adverts (which have been shown more than once) to coincide with a case in the Supreme Court challenging the legality of the tariffs, and to sow discord among Republican supporters. Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney announced on Friday that the country was ready to resume trade talks with the United States and would pause the advert on Monday in the hope that U.S. trade officials would return to the negotiating table.

In a surprise move, President Trump predicted that Brazil and the United States may be able to “pretty quickly” strike a trade deal, despite having imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil earlier this year over the prosecution of former ally Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian Foreign Affairs Minister Mauro Vieira stated that he hoped sanctions on Brazilian officials would be lifted and that he expected trade negotiations to be completed within weeks.

President Trump is attending the 47^th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Kuala Lumpur from 26^th – 28^th October 2025, where he has held several meetings with regional leaders concerning tariffs. He is seeking to increase access to markets for U.S. agricultural goods and, crucially for his administration, to secure access to critical minerals and rare earth sectors. Such framework agreements will include exemptions from tariffs on key exports to the United States for several Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The United States has released a framework for a trade agreement with Vietnam, which will offer zero tariffs on selected products while granting preferential treatment by the Vietnamese Government to U.S. agricultural and industrial exports. A White House Statement said the agreement is expected to be finalised in the coming weeks, adding that both countries had agreed commitments on investment, digital trade, and services, though further details were not provided.

It has also been announced that a reciprocal trade framework between the United States and Thailand has been reached, under which the U.S. will maintain a 19% tariff on Thai exports, while identifying certain products where tariffs could be reduced or removed. Thailand will eliminate tariffs on approximately 99% of U.S. exports, covering industrial, food, and agricultural products. Both countries also signed a pact giving U.S. companies preferential access to rare earth minerals, crucial in manufacturing high-tech products such as jet engines and semiconductors. However, information released so far remains limited and given that China controls around 90% of the rare earth market, the overall impact for the U.S. may be modest.

Malaysia, as host of the 47^th ASEAN Summit, has signed a Joint Trade and Critical Minerals Agreement with the United States aimed at improving trade across Southeast Asia and countering China’s tightening control of rare earth mineral exports. Analysts say the agreement gives Malaysia an advantage in accessing the U.S export market and, in return, Malaysia will develop its rare earth and critical mineral sectors with U.S firms, while addressing barriers that affect investment, digital trade and services. Furthermore, Malaysia will commit to purchasing products from U.S companies and restricting the export of any U.S. items on the unauthorised list.

Finally, China and the United States are both keen, according to experts, to avoid further escalation of the current trade war, and have shown signs of progress. After China increased export controls on rare earth and critical minerals, President Trump responded by imposing China with 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. However, on 26^th October, it was announced that U.S. and Chinese trade and economic officials had reached an agreement on a framework for bilateral trade, and President Trump confirmed that he expects to finalise a trade deal with President XI Jinping in the coming days. Only time will tell whether the United States and China can reach a sustainable long-term agreement.

What Ignited the Recent Record Crypto Crash?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on October 22, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Friday, 10th October, just after reaching an all-time high, the cryptocurrency market imploded, wiping out around half a trillion dollars in value. Bitcoin alone lost more than USD 200 billion. Most experts, analysts, and financial commentators agree that the crash was triggered by President Trump’s announcement on his Truth Social platform that he would impose 100% import tariffs on China from 1st November 2025. Following the post, Trump’s own meme coin plunged to USD 4.65, leaving his followers nursing losses of around 40% in a single day. The same coin had recently traded at a high of USD 45.

Leveraged trading has become standard practice among many crypto traders, who borrow money to increase the size of their positions. While such trades can be highly profitable, they are equally risky when prices move sharply in the wrong direction, as they did last Friday. In today’s crypto market, heavily leveraged bets are automatically closed by exchanges once losses reach a level that would make repayment impossible. Experts say this system amplified the crash, as countless traders with high leverage were forcibly liquidated by exchange algorithms once prices began to fall.

Allegations of insider trading have also surfaced after an investor reportedly placed a short position on Bitcoin, earning around USD 200 million when prices collapsed. This trade occurred just 30 minutes before President Trump’s post on Truth Social announcing the new tariffs on China. Many within the crypto community have questioned whether the investor had access to insider information from within the White House. The trader has since been dubbed the “Trump Insider”, particularly after opening another large short position on Bitcoin this week, sparking fears of a second market downturn.

The unwinding of leveraged trades also had a devastating impact on altcoins, leaving the wider market reeling. Ethereum dropped by around 11% to USD 3,878, while Cardano and Solana both fell roughly 30%. Other major cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Dogecoin, and ADA also tumbled by 19%, 50%, and 25% respectively, according to market data. Analysts say stablecoins which are pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies such as the USD, GBP, or gold, are edging closer to mainstream adoption as Congress debates the *Genius Act. However, during the sell-off on 10th October, Ethena’s yield-bearing stablecoin (USDe) briefly lost its dollar peg, plunging to 65 cents on Binance before rebounding to close just below USD 1. Financial commentators say this episode should give Congress some food for thought when refining the legislation.

The *“Genius Act”, passed in July 2025, is a U.S. law that created the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. It aims to provide clarity and consumer protection by requiring issuers to maintain a 1:1 backing with high-quality assets such as cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries. The Act also establishes both federal and state licensing pathways and includes provisions for financial stability, disclosure of reserves, and legal safeguards for holders in the event of insolvency.

Experts suggest several key lessons can be drawn from the 10th October 2025 crypto crash. Earlier that week, China announced restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, reigniting speculation about a renewed U.S.–China trade war. President Trump’s retaliatory post amplified global concerns, sending shockwaves through financial markets. While traditional markets were closed, the 24/7 nature of crypto trading meant that digital assets bore the full force of the panic almost instantly.

This has been the largest single liquidation event in cryptocurrency history. Data shows that around USD 19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in under 24 hours, though some commentators believe the true figure could be higher. Analysts say the episode highlights the extreme risks of trading with leverage in such a volatile environment. The market’s structure also contributed to the collapse, as automatic deleveraging mechanisms at major exchanges like Binance triggered further sell-offs, creating a vicious cycle.

The crypto industry now faces serious questions about its own resilience and governance. The ecosystem is so interconnected that when one segment collapses, the rest often follow. Moreover, repeated allegations of insider trading, including claims that an unknown trader made USD 200 million shortly before President Trump’s announcement, have further damaged trust. To avoid similar crises, experts say exchanges and market participants need to adopt stronger risk management systems and institutional-grade compliance standards. However, given crypto’s historical resistance to regulation, some argue that Congress may need to intervene to ensure proper oversight as stablecoins move into mainstream financial markets.

Tag: USA