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How Tariffs are being Weaponised by President Trump

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on August 27, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

For years, international trade was as tranquil as it comes and within the offices of the WTO (World Trade Organisation) on the banks of Lake Geneva worked the trade lawyers and trade economists unencumbered by the problems of today. Sadly, the twin forces of geo-economic fragmentation and geo-political confrontation have undermined the balance of the global trade regime and what we witness today is the weaponisation of tariffs*. The most pronounced effect of tariffs in the present day has come from the White House with President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on 2nd April this year, where he announced punitive tariffs across the board on all of the United States’ trading partners.

*Tariffs – are defined as a tax on imported goods levied by governments typically as a percentage of the product’s value. It is designed to protect domestic industries, raise government revenues, or serve as a political tool in trade negotiations. Importers pay the tax which increases the cost of foreign products, potentially making domestic alternatives more attractive to consumers.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has transformed the utilisation of tariffs into instruments of both economic and political coercion and in the process has reignited economic nationalism. Some experts argue that the weaponising of trade (via tariffs) is where existing trade relations are manipulated to advance political and geo-political objectives, the ultimate goal being to push another government to change its policies in favour of the country wielding the tariffs. The biggest offender in the new tariff war is the United States and as seen below, they have successfully employed tariffs to bend the will of certain governments to their way of thinking.

On the domestic front, (Trump’s efforts are not just confined to foreign governments), he is reshaping domestic supply chains and even threatening iconic power price points. However, there are downsides as the 50% increase in tariffs on imports of aluminium and steel*, (which came into effect on 3rd June 2025) have increased production costs for such brands as Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowes Proctor & Gamble and AriZona Iced Tea. Famed for its 99 cents cans AriZona sources most of its aluminium domestically, but tariffs on imported aluminium/steel distort the broader market increasing prices for all producers. The tariff will increase prices which will be passed on to customers, and in the case of AriZona this will undercut a key brand identity that has endured for decades.

*Aluminium and Steel Tariffs – The tariff on these two metals doubled to 50% on June 3rd this year with some counties getting exemptions and paying the original tariff of 25%. The impact of this increase in the US has potentially led to higher consumer prices and fewer jobs in downstream industries, including higher domestic commodity prices and supply chain disruption. Experts say the main reason for these tariffs are national security under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act 1962 to protect domestic industries from unfair foreign competition and to help correct trade deficits.

Elsewhere on the domestic front on the 6th of this month President Trump announced a plan to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors*, with exemptions for companies that commit to manufacturing in the United States. The White House framed the policy as national security concerns with over-reliance on Asian countries such as Taiwan and South Korea for critical technology. This move was not about trade imbalances, it was about forcing multinational companies to expand manufacturing with the borders of the United States. Interestingly, Apple has been exempt from these tariffs after pledging to invest USD 600 Billion into U.S. based chip production and related infrastructure. This has now set a precedent where tariff relief can be bought through commitments that serve President Trump’s domestic industrial goals.

*Semiconductors – is a material with electrical conductivity that falls between that of a conductor (e.g., copper) and an insulator (e.g., glass). Their unique ability to be controlled make them essential components of modern electronics including computer chips, transistors and diodes.

Under the current administration in the White House, experts conclude that traditional legal frameworks are being bypassed with tariffs which were originally imposed on China, Mexico and Canada by invoking the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) citing security reasons. This is a classic example of weaponising tariffs in order for Donald Trump to bend counties to his will. It did not work with China but initial reactions from Mexico and Canada showed that Trump had certainly won the initial battle but Mexico has had a stay of execution and Canada and the U.S. are currently in negotiations.

Elsewhere in Europe, the member countries have agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP for NATO in line with the wishes of President Trump. However, analysts suggest that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24th February 2022 prompted the European Union members to raise defence spending but interestingly it was not agreed upon for just over three years when President Trump introduced punitive tariffs.

In another example of weaponising tariffs, on 6th August President Trump issued Executive Order “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation imposing additional tariffs, currently 25%, on Indian Imports (circa USD 81.4 Billion 2023). Experts suggest that India has been targeted because of their direct and indirect purchases of Russian oil (averages a 5% discount), and now the Indian tariff is 50% on most goods imported to the U.S. which is seen as a penalty for facilitating Russia’s oil trade. However, the White Hopes the weaponising of tariffs against India will hopefully persuade them to reduce their dependency on Russian oil. Also, in the week ending 25th July 2025, the White House agreed tariff deals with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines; granting them lower rates than previously threatened in exchange for them to sign up to national security commitments, the verbiage of which was somewhat opaque.

Conclusion

President Trump has shown even his closest allies are not immune from weaponised tariffs and neither are historical neutral trading partners such as Switzerland who were recently hit with a 39% punitive tariff on Swiss goods, mainly pharmaceuticals, watches and luxury

goods. It appears that currently no country is safe from the Trump trade war machine which uses tariffs as a blunt instrument to beat other countries into submission.

In his second term, Donald Trump has elevated tariffs from a traditional economic safeguard to an overt instrument of political leverage. Whilst tariffs have long been used to protect domestic industries the current approach is far more aggressive as they are being imposed and lifted not purely on economic grounds, but as bargaining chips in corporate negotiations and diplomatic manoeuvres.

U.S. Investment Surges into European AI – A Swiss Perspective

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on August 20, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Since pulling back during 2023’s tech downturn, U.S. investors are once again muscling into deal flows in Europe – and AI is the magnet. Data released by PitchBook* shows the U.S. share of deal making in Europe is once again climbing, and the standout category which is pulling American investors back into the market is AI. Experts suggest that from a global perspective, the capital base is there as U.S. private investment in AI in 2024 was circa USD 109 Billion with ample dry powder** to deploy into the European markets when the time is right.

*PitchBook – Is the premier resource for comprehensive, best-in-class data and insights on the global capital markets.

**Dry Powder – This refers to unallocated cash reserves or highly liquid assets held by investment firms, venture capital funds, hedge funds, and private individuals which in this case is ready to be deployed for investment purposes.

A Brief Overview

From a Swiss vantage point there are three forces which are converging and the first is a dense research-to- start-up pipeline anchored by ETH Zurich and EPFL.

ETH Zurich is a public research university and is widely regarded as a leading institution known for its strong focus on science and technology, significant research contributions, and prestigious academic standings.

Based in Lausanne, EPFL is Europe’s most cosmopolitan university and it welcomes students, professors, and collaborators from more than 120 different countries. EPFL has both Swiss and international vocation and focuses/specialises on three different missions being teaching, research, and innovation.

The second force is regulatory clarity via the EU AI Act, with Switzerland chartering a lighter sector-based path.

The third force is Switzerland’s world-class infrastructure and their electricity reliability which makes the country (and its neighbours) a first-class destination to build and run AI.

Why Switzerland Hits the Sweet Spot

Talent and Spin-Out Velocity

ETH Zurich’s AI ecosystem is a massive magnet to investors as in 2024 ETH spinoffs raised CHF 425 Million across 42 rounds, a ten year ten times increase and a powerful sign that even in choppy markets the pipeline to start-ups is in a healthy state. Indeed, the ETH A1 centre’s network of affiliated start-ups spans applied robotics, industrial AI, and model reliability which according to experts is exactly where corporates from the United States are looking to invest their capital.

Regulatory Readability

As opposed to the EU’S (European Union) horizontal* AI Act**, Switzerland’s Federal Council chose a more sector-specific approach, integrating AI duties into existing laws whilst planning to implement the Council of Europe’s AI convention. This they felt would be more beneficial, rather than passing a sweeping one size fits all AI law, which for founders and investors reduces the legislative shock whilst still tracking the usual international norms on safety and rights. It should be noted that the EU AI Act is highly relevant to Swiss companies who are selling into the Eurozone/single market, as for example obligations for general purpose AI (GPAI)*** and the EU is ensuring that timelines do not slip. All in all, the dexterity and agility of the Swiss together with the EU-grade clarity on market entry makes investment decisions by U.S. investors much easier.

*Horizontal in Law – This refers to the ability of legal requirements meant to apply only to public bodies to affect private rights. It arises where a court dealing with a legal dispute between two private entities interprets a legal provision to be consistent with certain legal norms in such a way as to affect the legal rights and obligations of the parties before it.

**EU AI Act – On 12th July 2025 this Act was published in the Official Journal of the European Union and entered into Law and became binding on 1st August 2025. This Act refers to the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence, a comprehensive regulation aimed at governing the development and use of artificial intelligence systems within the EU. It is the first major AI regulation of its kind, and focuses on risk assessment, and categorisation of AI systems to ensure safety and ethical development.

***GPAI – This refers to all General-Purpose AI models as defined within the EU AI Act. These are powerful AI models trained on broad datasets****, capable of performing a wide range of tasks, and potentially integrated into various downstream AI systems. The EU AI Act places significant obligations on providers of these models, especially those with systemic risks.

****Datasets – This is a structured collection of data used to train and test artificial intelligence models. These datasets provide the raw materials for AI algorithms to learn patterns, make predictions, and perform tasks and can, simply put, be viewed as a textbook from which AI models can learn.

Infrastructure Gravity

The Alps supercomputer at the CSCS (Swiss National Supercomputing Centre) is a critical component offering significant processing power for AI applications and is a key part of the AI initiative at positioning Switzerland as a leading hub for trustworthy AI development. Overall, the build-out of AI in Europe is accelerating fast with San Francisco’s Open AI Inc launching their Stargate Norway, the first AI data centre initiative in Europe. Whilst this build does not situate itself in Switzerland, its proximity and any grid stability across the region changes the equation as to where to build AI-heavy companies and experts suggest that Switzerland is primed as a European hub that U.S. investors will back for “near-compute*” opportunities.

*Near-Compute – This refers to the concept of placing processing units (like CPU’s – central processing unit or GPU’s – graphic processing unit) closer to memory or even within the memory itself, rather than relying solely on traditional computing architectures. This approach aims to minimize data movement between memory and processing units which can significantly reduce latency and energy consumption.

Switzerland has enjoyed a number of AI deals such as Meteomatics in St Gallen, a USD 22 Million to scale high-resolution AI-enhanced weather models and drone systems selling into the automotive, aviation, and energy sectors. Another success is Daedalean the Zurich avionics-AI pioneer has just entered into (subject to closing a USD 200 Million acquisition by Destinus a big player in the European aerospace sector, who pioneer autonomous flight systems. Other successes included Zurich’s LatticeFlow, an AI governance and reliability model and ANYbotics which operates in the robotic sector and industrial AI.

Conclusion

Whilst Switzerland’s overall start-up funding cooled in 2024 (down CHF 2.3 Billion which is -15% Y-O-Y), interestingly AI rounds doubled accounting for 22% of all rounds, and is uniquely placed due to infrastructure, power/electricity, the ability to build AI with EU-Act readiness, the ability to stand next to compute, and the ability to use the country’s events and clusters as magnets for U.S and global investment. The macro capital tide is unmistakable with generative AI venture capital setting a new pace in Q1 and Q2 in 2025, and Switzerland sits first and third in Europe and globally respectively for Deep Tech venture capital funding per capita, which, according to experts indicates a strong international interest in the country’s AI ecosystem.

Furthermore, Microsoft has made substantial investments in Switzerland’s AI and cloud infrastructure including a USD 400 Million investment (announced in June of this year) to expand its datacentres near Zurich and Geneva which will meet growing demand for AI services whilst keeping data within the country’s borders. As mentioned before, the companies from the United States are taking bigger and bigger slices of the European AI action, and Switzerland will, according to experts, massively benefit because it pairs deep technical IP and enterprise-friendly regulation with direct access to the Eurozone’s markets.

Trump Hits Switzerland with 39% Tariffs

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on August 6, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The highlight of Switzerland’s summer calendar is the national holiday (Switzerland’s birthday), which fell last Friday, 1st of August, but all of Switzerland, including the government, woke up to the headlines that President Donald Trump had hit the country with punitive tariffs of 39%. The tariffs cover all Swiss imports to the United States and in 2024, according to data released by the United Nations COMTRADE data base totalled USD 72.88 Billion, leaving America with a trade deficit of USD 38 Billion, (though other figures suggest it’s as high as USD 47.4 Billion,) the 13th largest of any nation with the USA. This has obviously caught the eye of President Trump who has made it clear that he wishes to eradicate trade imbalances with all of America’s trading partners.

This has come as a huge shock for both the politicians and the business elite as only a few weeks ago the government was exuding confidence regarding its tariff negotiations with the United States. Indeed, back in May, Switzerland hosted the United States and China in the hope of preventing a trade war which gave Switzerland’s President Karin Keller-Suter the opportunity to meet with Scott Bessent, the United States Trade Secretary. It appeared that the meeting was successful having been told that Switzerland was second in the queue after Great Britain to strike a trade deal with the U.S. at potentially a 10% tariff, much lower than the 31% as unveiled by President Trump back in April’s “liberation day”.

Therefore, the 39% has come at a complete shock and politicians are divided as to the negotiation tactics, with some saying the government were too obsequious, and others saying they were too tough, while many just said the negotiation tactics were not up to scratch. However, the trade deficit according to officials is the sticking point, and basically the Swiss sell more to the U.S. than it buys, and the population of just 9 million quite frankly just do not like U.S. goods such as their cheese, chocolates, and cars. However, the Swiss have tried to compensate for the trade deficit by reducing their own tariffs on imported U.S. industrial goods to zero, and many of the Swiss companies have multibillion dollar investments in U.S. plants. Data suggests that Swiss investment in the U.S has created circa 400,000 jobs, furthermore Trump has ignored service industries which would bring the deficit down to USD 22 Billion, but sadly President Trump is just fixated on trade imbalances.

Analysts point to one problem which is where on earth did the 39% come from, which makes it appear that President Trump is just arbitrarily picking out numbers from thin air. There appears to be little wiggle room in negotiations, but Switzerland could import LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) from the U.S. plus they can also point out they are committed to investments in the United States totalling USD 105 Billion. In Q1 two thirds of the trade deficit was due to shipments of gold bullion, this was due to the price of gold not due to any added value by the Swiss refineries. Experts point out that gold is not manufactured in Switzerland but reprocessed into bars and one offer to Trump could be a one off tariff of 50% on gold.

This Thursday, 7th August is deadline day for tariffs and experts point out that the Swiss government will be moving heaven and earth to get an extension. Indeed, officials from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic affairs have already contacted their counterparts in the United States to try and negotiate a way forward, plus the President of Switzerland herself is flying to Washington (without an invitation) to meet face-to-face with Trump in the hope of avoiding the increase in tariffs. Trump is known for flip flopping at the last minute so the President of Switzerland can only hope they can extend the current deadline and get a reprieve, otherwise the damage to their economy could be quite serious. Experts point out that the key to the current tariff impasse would be that instead of dealing with Trump’s negotiators is instead to win over the man himself.

For Switzerland’s export-driven economy, the impact could be significant. Key industries—including luxury watchmaking, pharmaceuticals, and precision engineering—depend heavily on access to the U.S. market. Higher tariffs risk eroding profit margins, raising prices for American consumers, and prompting Swiss firms to reassess their U.S. expansion plans. Politically, the move is a shock to a nation that prides itself on neutrality and stable bilateral relations. It signals that even close, low-conflict partners are not immune from politically motivated trade actions.

The tariffs also complicate Switzerland’s position within the EU-Swiss economic framework, as Brussels weighs its own responses to Trump’s trade policy. In the short term, Swiss exporters may absorb some costs to maintain market share, but over time, the pressure could accelerate efforts to diversify export destinations and invest in U.S.-based production—ironically, one of Trump’s intended outcomes.

The Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 31, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Wednesday, 30^th July and for the fifth straight time, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) kept interest rates steady at 4.25% – 4.50%. The committee voted 9 – 2 to keep interest rates on hold with the two dissenting voices belonging to Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman. Both governors are appointees of President Donald Trump and experts point out that such dissension from political appointees has not occurred for over 30 years which is a sign of both political pressure and economic uncertainty being felt by the Federal Reserve. Chairman Powell indicated he was not concerned with the dissenting voices but he did say “On the dissents, what you want from everybody and also from a dissenter is a clear explanation of what you are thinking and what arguments you are making”.

Officials from the Federal Reserve downgraded their view of the economy saying “recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year” as opposed to previous statements where growth was characterised as expanding at a solid pace. Interestingly, analysts have pointed out that today’s interest rate decisions were made without key data, and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Powell has pointed out that decisions are currently data driven. This key data is the Commerce Department’s Personal Income and Outlays report, (due out 31^st July), which provides essential data on household spending and income, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index which is the Federal Reserves favoured inflation gauge.

Following the FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell said the central bank has confidence in the economy of the United States and that it is strong enough to hold interest rates steady as it determines how the tariff policy of President Trump ultimately plays out and their effect on the economy. He went on to say “Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent and that is a risk to be assessed and managed”.

Despite political pressure and personal insults from President Trump to Chairman Jerome Powell the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Despite many experts predicting a rate cut at the next meeting of the FOMC (16^th – 17^th September), the financial markets pared back bets expectations for a rate cut, whilst interest rate futures indicated a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in September down from 60%. Data released showed that GDP had increased on an annualised basis by 3% in Q2 after Q1 showed a shrinking of 0.5%, experts put the swing down to companies front-loading of imports to avoid tariffs. Consumer spending advanced at its slowest pace over Q1 and Q2 since the pandemic.

Chairman Powell has made it clear that there is still room to hold rates, something that will no doubt send President Trump into a fit of rage. Data released since the FOMC’s last meeting on 17th – 18th June has given officials little reason to shift from their “wait and see” policy stance, which has been in effect since Donald Trump’s elevation to the White House. Whilst there will be a cornucopia of data between now and the September meeting of the FOMC, experts point out that the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (in Kansas City) is being held between 21st – 23rd August. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world, and Chairman Powell has been known to indicate forthcoming policy shifts, so perhaps financial markets and President Trump will get a peek into future Federal Reserve policy.

Bitcoin Surges Past USD 120,000 Creating New Record

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 16, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Monday of this week, Bitcoin blew past the USD 120,000 mark creating a record price and hitting a high of USD 123,205 (up 3.4%) before pairing early gains to trade around the USD 121,600 mark. On the back of this rise, and clinging to the shirt tails of Bitcoin Ether, the second largest crypto token, advanced beyond the USD 3,000 barrier whilst a number of other smaller coins such as Uniswap and XRP also joined the bandwagon. Experts suggest that investor demand has been fuelled by crypto week (14th – 18th July), a term coined by the House of Representatives. Indeed, the House will consider the Clarity Act*, the Anti-CBCD Surveillance State Act**, the Senate’s Genius Act***, as part of Congress’ effort to make America the crypto capital of the world.

*Clarity Act – The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aka the Clarity Act, is a proposed US law designed to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, specifically clarifying the roles of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) in overseeing these assets.

**Anti CBCD Surveillance State Act – This act prohibits unelected bureaucrats in Washington D.C. from issuing a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), that undermines Americans’ right to financial privacy.

***Genius Act – This act refers to the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (a stable coin is a digital currency pegged one-to-one against a hard fiat currency, mainly the US Dollar) and is a piece of legislation aimed at regulating stable coins. The act establishes a comprehensive framework for stable coin issuance, custody, and use, including rules for issuers, custodians and digital asset service providers.

Analysts suggest that investor confidence is at a high and will probably stay there for a while especially as congress are considering the abovementioned bills. Post the election of Donald Trump for a second term in the White House, Bitcoin enjoyed a surge but then fell back trading either side of USD 100,000 for a number of months. The policies emanating from the White House did indeed have a negative effect on investor optimism regarding the President’s pro-crypto agenda, however, other U.S. assets that carry risks such as equities have now rebounded to just about their original highs, giving Bitcoin has once the impetus to move upwards.

Interestingly, institutional investors have also jumped on the Bitcoin bandwagon as confidence in the cryptocurrency has dramatically improved because despite the flip-flop chaotic trade policy of the current U.S. administration, Bitcoin has been steadily moving north. Since doubling in 2024 Bitcoin is up circa 30% since January 1st of this year, and last week investors piled into combined US Bitcoin ETFs with inflows of USD 2.7 Billion, furthermore the current rally has also been helped by crypto trades by the bears who all unwound their short positions last Friday. Data released showed those traders who were short of Bitcoin and had to unwind their trades, saw their positions wiped out to the tune of USD 1 Billion.

There are many in the Democratic party who oppose the introduction of the aforementioned bills to Congress, and Senator Elizabeth Warren last week made vocal her concerns regarding the package of bills, stating it could amount to an “Industry Handout”. She also noted that if passed into law, these bills could inject traditional cryptocurrency volatility into mainstream financial markets. Once upon a time, President Trump described Bitcoin as a “Scam”, but a complete U-turn showed him to be the biggest backer of the crypto world. His family are heavily invested in crypto world such as Bitcoin, Stable Coin crypto mining and sensationally the two meme coins $Trump and $Melania. He has promised to make America the crypto centre of the world, and it appears he will be living up to that promise.

Is the US Dollar Under Threat Due to the Policies of Donald Trump?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on July 2, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Donald Trump was inaugurated on Monday 20th January 2025, and since his elevation to the White House, the greenback has lost over 10% of its value against the Swiss Franc, Sterling, and the Euro. Global investors have been turning away from President Trump’s policies, and there is no better measuring stick for their renunciation of his policies than the US dollar. The last time the US Dollar fell so badly was post the Global Financial Crisis 2007 – 2009, when in 2010 the Federal Reserve in order to prop up the economy was excessively printing money.

However, this time around there is no global financial crisis; it is the policies coming from the White House such as expanded global tariffs, the on-going fight between President Trump and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to push interest rates down, where Chairman Jerome Powell* refuses to budge. Furthermore, there are two further policies which are scaring investors such as the open legal warfare against those who stand up against his policies, and “the big beautiful bill” which has just passed the Senate 51-50, which many experts feel will add to an already massive deficit. These are just a few of the pillars that make up the current administration’s policy and according to the value of the US Dollar are driving global investors away.

*Jerome Powell and Tariffs – On Tuesday of this week, The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell noted that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) would probably have reduced interest rates further without the White House’s policy of expanding global tariffs. He went on to say, “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs. We think the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what the effect might be”.

Experts suggest that tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation and certainly slow economic growth, and the President continuing to flip-flop on the specifics of levies and halting progress on trade agreements has given much worry and uncertainty on the outlook of the US economy. However, having said that, recently released economic data shows that tariffs have yet to impact prices or the labour market with further data showing that job openings rose in May, the highest level since November 2024.

Interestingly, many market experts, traders, economists, and analysts suggest that Donald Trump and his colleagues are ambivalent to the fall in the US Dollar. When questioned as to whether they support a strong dollar, the answer is always inevitably “yes” but little seems to be done in halting the current decline. Analysts suggest the financial markets feel that the White House is happy to see the US Dollar slide downwards in order to boost manufacturing in the United States.

Such speculation has led some observers to suggest that the President is playing with fire as the cost of financing the government has exploded to over USD 4 Trillion as the budget deficit continues on its path like a runaway train. Financing mainly comes from overseas

investors, and when it comes time sell up and bring their money home, a sliding greenback means they lose money. This, some observers feel, could lead to a vicious cycle where global investors continue to pull their funds out of the USA driving up borrowing costs resulting in further declines in the US Dollar with further economic uncertainty and so on and so on. If overseas investors get a whiff that a declining greenback is government policy the results could be catastrophic for the US Dollar.

As the world’s reserve currency, the US Dollar is already on the decline because at the close of business 2014 data showed the greenback accounted for 65% of global foreign exchange reserves and as at close of business 2024 this figure stood at 58%. However, that said, swift data shows that as recently as August last year the US Dollar is used in 49.10% of global payments and as at December 2024 data shows that 54% of global traded invoices are transacted in US Dollar and 88% of foreign exchange transactions are done in USD Dollars.

Analysts agree that in the near future, the US Dollar will undoubtedly keep its status as the world’s reserve currency. However, if the US Dollar continues to slide it will come under severe pressure from foreign investors, and there are already mutterings coming out of the ECB (European Central Bank) that the Euro could, in a few years’ time, be in a position to take over the mantle of the world’s reserve currency. The US has amassed a debt pile of USD 29 Trillion (100% of GDP) and it’s not stopping, it has lost its last remaining AAA rating and the budget deficit over the past few years has increased to 6% of GDP. President Trump without a doubt will have some short-term problems coming his way, but will things have turned around by the end of his presidency, and what will his legacy be?

Major Victory for the Crypto Arena as Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 19, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Tuesday 17^th June 2025, the United States Senate passed a bill (AKA The Genius Act) to create a regulatory framework for “Stablecoins”* in a defining moment for digital currencies in the crypto industry. The bill passed the Senate by a majority of 68 – 30 with a number of democrats joining most Republicans ensuring the bill was passed by a significant majority. The bill will now sit before a Republican controlled House of Representatives which will vote on its version of the bill before finally landing on the desk of President Donald Trump.

*Stablecoins – are a type of cryptocurrency designed to minimize price volatility by pegging their value to a stable asset such as a fiat currency which in this case is the US Dollar. Unlike other cryptocurrencies which historically and today can fluctuate wildly in price, stablecoins doctrine is to maintain a relatively stable value making them suitable for everyday transactions and a storage of wealth.

Stablecoins that are pegged to the dollar will have to hold dollar-for-dollar reserves in either cash, short-term US government debt (treasuries) or similar products that are easily convertible to cash, which shall be overseen by federal or state regulators, The crypto industry as a whole has waited years for yesterday’s vote, have literally spent hundreds of millions of dollars to elect a Congress that is crypto friendly, and the industry is posed to do more of the same in the 2026 mid-term elections.

Those in the stablecoin arena are hopeful that the recent legislation will ensure stablecoins sooner or later become a mainstream form of payment. Indeed, retailers have backed this bill because it is felt that stablecoins will provide a faster and cheaper way to process transactions as opposed to traditional banking products such as credit cards. However, in the banking world, the smaller banks have issued warnings that deposits may be drained plus a reduction in access to credit. Meanwhile larger banks are mulling over whether they should issue their own stablecoins will generate profits from reserves.

Senator Elizabeth Warren (Democrat and ranking member on Senate Banking) and a number of her colleagues argue that the bill does not go far enough to protect consumers in the event that issuers of stablecoin fail. They contend that in the event of a failure customers could well lose their money which could fuel demands for a bailout by the taxpayer, and Senator Warren went on to say the bill would “supercharge the value of Donald Trump’s corruption.

Elsewhere in the crypto world declines in cryptocurrencies were led by Solana and Ether falling by 7% and 8% respectively, while Cardano had fallen by 8.5% (all coins had rebounded slightly by C.O.B. on Monday) all reflecting growing concern over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The sell-off in crypto appeared to be a warning to Bitcoin holders that the cryptocurrency is a haven from turmoil as it sank along with other coins when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran at the end of last week.

The Debanking Crisis and How to Rebuild Financial Confidence

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 5, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

A new financial phenomenon has in recent years swept through the financial world and it is known as “DEBANKING”. Debanking occurs when a bank, at any time and in any place, closes a corporate, personal, or private account – or refuses to open one – without warning or providing any plausible or straightforward reason. Banking clients may have been with their bank for a short period of time or may have been with them for years, but the client can wake up one morning to find they have no banking facilities.

This means no cash or debit card, no visa card, any banking facilities will have been cancelled, they have been financially frozen out of the system, and there is nothing clients can do about it; there is no recourse. What many citizens and corporates across the globe don’t know is that debanking is not just an internal compliance issue when fraud, money laundering, terrorist funding or other criminal or illicit activity is discovered. Indeed, the innocent, law-abiding (never even has a parking ticket) individuals or entities can be kicked out without any due process; there is no appeal.

A question many in the financial industry have been asked is “When did debanking start”? The answers are somewhat fuzzy, but in essence the concept of debanking, particularly in a political or disruptive motivated context, never really had a fixed beginning date. It is a theme or phenomenon that has occurred throughout history evolving over time but has gained much traction and press awareness in recent years. Indeed, a high-profile debanking event took place in the United Kingdom when in 2021 NatWest Bank debanked a senior British political figure, Mr Nigel Farage MP* leader of the Reform Party.

*Nigel Farage – Nearly two years after NatWest Group closed his accounts at their wholly owned private wealth subsidiary Coutts & Co, the then CEO Dame Alison Rose resigned. Although the bank said the account was closed due to Mr Farage accounts falling below the required thresholds, Mr Farage obtained a document stating that the bank were at odds with his political views. The case was settled privately where the bank paid Mr Farage an out of court settlement, but political motivation in the case was never proved.

The Farage case highlighted the problems innocent individuals and entities face in today’s banking world. In the United Kingdom alone, in 2024 circa 408,000 were closed without appeal as opposed to 45,000 in 2016 – 2017. The same is happening in the United States, Europe and elsewhere in the world. The main focus on account closures by banks are se workers, (legal in the UK), migrants, refugees, those with poor financial histories, the homeless, PEP’s (Politically Exposed Persons), small business and those with links to crypto, (especially prevalent int the United States in recent years).

To this end, IntaCapital Swiss SA Geneva, will be pleased to hear from any high-net-worth individuals who have suffered the ignominy of having their banking facilities removed without any reasons given, with absolutely no chance of appeal or access to a recourse process.

Trump’s Tariffs Hobble U.S. Markets Whilst European Stocks Forge Ahead

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 4, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The week ending 30th May 2025 saw equities in Europe as a clear winner globally, whilst tariffs and trade wars initiated by President Trump have hampered and shackled the markets in the United States. Recent data released showed that out of the world’s ten best performing stock markets, eight can be found in Europe. Indeed, this year in US Dollar terms Germany’s DAX Index* has rallied in excess of 30% including such peripheral markets as Hungary. Poland, Greece, and Slovenia.

*The DAX Index – The DAX or its full name Deutsche Aktien index 40, is Germany’s benchmark stock market index, and reflects the performance of 40 of the largest and most liquid German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It is a key indicator of the health of the German economy.

The European STOXX 600 Index* is currently beating the U.S. S&P 500 by 18% (reflected in dollar terms) which as data shows is a record, which experts advise is being powered by a stronger Euro and Germany’s strong fiscal spending plan both current and in the past. Market analysts with knowledge of this arena suggest there is more to come due to attractive valuations and resilient corporate earnings, which when compared to America’s which is being gripped by fiscal and trade debt, make Europe a safer bet.

*European STOXX 600 Index – This index is a broad measure of the European Equity Market. Based in Zug, Switzerland, it has a fixed number of components and provides extensive and diversified coverage across 17 countries and 11 industries within Europe’s developed economies, representing circa 90% of the underlying investible market.

Equity bull experts suggest that Europe is back on the investment map, with some investment managers saying that recently there has been more European interest from investors than there has been in the last decade. Bulls went on to say that this rally may well be self-feeding and if European stocks continue to rise, they will be likely to attract fresh investment from the rest of the world. Indeed, some analysts suggest that if the trend away from America continues over the next five years the European markets could expect an inflow of circa USD 1.4 Trillion (Euros 1.4 Trillion.) Analysts suggest the gains so far this year were the result of a proposal by the German government to spend hundreds of billions of Euros on defence and infrastructure with some economists suggesting that this will boost growth across the European bloc from Q2 2026.

Elsewhere, a slew of Europe’s peripheral markets have had performances that have made investors sit up. For example, Slovenia’s SBI TOP Index is, according to data released, the second-best performing stock market up 42% (in dollar terms) just behind Ghana’s benchmark the Ghana Stock Exchange GSE-CI, (tracks all the performance of all company’s trade on the Ghana Stock Exchange). Other peripheral stock exchanges that have done well are Poland’s WIG20) Index up 40% whilst the benchmarks in both Hungary and Greece are both up circa 34%.

Experts suggest that 2025 could be a good year for European Stock Markets as some professionals are already betting that European stocks will outperform their counterparts in America. President Trump’s tariffs, the loss of the country’s AAA status, looming trade wars, and the current fiscal deficit of USD 1.9 Trillion (and predicted to climb), are all factors as to why investors are turning their backs on the US markets. Whether this will last, we will have to wait and see if all of Donald Trump’s predictions come true. Meanwhile back in Europe data released show that corporate earnings are in the spotlight having risen 5.3% in Q1 2025 against predictions of a 1.5% decline, another reason to perhaps bet on Europe.

Has President Trump Triggered a Sell-Off of U.S. Dollar Assets by Asian Countries?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 4, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Analysts advise that many exporting Asian nations, especially those considered as powerhouses* are beginning to unwind their US Dollar holdings which today stands at circa USD 7.5 Trillion. President Trump’s economic policies have turned America from a safe haven to one of volatility and perhaps inevitably a certain amount of pain. These Asian exporting powerhouses have for many decades enjoyed a simple economic model – Sell their products to the United States and use the proceeds to invest in U.S. assets. However, experts advise that due to President Trump’s current strategies, this model, whilst not completely broken, is certainly creaking at the joints.

*Asian Exporting Powerhouses – China, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.

This economic model is now facing its biggest challenge since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2009 with the underlying logic that created this model in disarray. Certain senior figures in this financial arena have already suggested that Asian countries due to a certain amount of pain have already begun to unwind their dollar positions. An example of such pain can be found in Taiwan where data shows that after President Trump announced tariffs on “Liberation Day” there was a big sell-off of the U.S. Dollar. As a result, Insurers in Taiwan announced just for April 2025 a loss of circa USD 620 Million, and when at the beginning of May the Taiwanese Dollar surged against its counterpart in America by circa 8.5% the same companies announced there were potential losses of circa USD 18 billion in unhedged American investments.

During the Biden presidency, data revealed that flows of capital from Asia to the United States had already receded from previous peaks. Analysts have announced that unwinding is accelerating with family offices freezing or cutting their investments, data from March 2025 confirmed that China had reduced their treasury holdings, and Japan’s largest life insurer announcing it is searching for alternatives to US treasuries. In Australia, UNISEP, one of the largest pension funds, announced it was declaring a cap on US investments, and so the list goes on. If the switch from holding US assets to doubting their reliability could experts advise, see circa USD 2.5 Trillion flow through global markets. Indeed, data released from the US Treasury confirmed that a combined net USD 172 Billion of U.S. bonds and equities were sold by Asian Nations in 2024 adding to the USD 64 Billion sold in 2023.

There are however a number of experts who disagree with the aforementioned, saying that in order for a decoupling from the United States investors need to know where to go suggesting that this is just a cyclical shift. These opinions appear to be in the minority and recent data shows that capital is already flowing into Japan. Experts now believe that policy volatility and tariffs under the Trump2 presidency is exacerbating the decoupling from the US Dollar. However, many investors still see US treasuries as a safe haven, especially as the dollar is still regarded as the world’s reserve currency. Only time will tell where the financial markets and the US Dollar stand by the end of the second Trump presidency. However, under the current circumstances the global mood towards President Trump, his tariffs, his flip-flops on economic policy, the loss of their AAA status remains cautious if not very negative.

Tag: United States