Trading Archives

Donald Trump Tariffs Pushes India and Great Britain into a Landmark Trade Agreement

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on May 7, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

In the days since President Trump announced he would be hitting all imports into the United States, countries around the world have been talking with each other regarding free trade deals. As a result of the fallout over Trump’s tariffs, India and Great Britain yesterday sealed a historic multi-billion-pound trade deal. The trade deal will significantly slash Indian tariffs on key products such as medical devices, whisky and cosmetics and will lock in reductions on 90% of tariff lines on UK exports to India, with 85% of these exports becoming fully tariff-free within 10 years.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that this is the United Kingdom’s biggest agreement since Brexit, whilst his counterpart Prime Minister Narendra Modi said this is the first deal of its kind with a European economy. This agreement is the culmination of three years of talks under four British prime ministers and was certainly helped over the line by President Trump and his protectionist policies. Experts advise that the two prime ministers are both seeking to to build barriers or insulate them against the Trump tariffs, whilst at the same time looking for favourable deals with the United States.

Experts suggest that this agreement between India and the UK has huge potential for the future, especially in the alcohol sector where, for example, data released shows both Diageo and Pernod enjoy 12% of their revenue from India. The trade deal agreement shows that tariffs on whisky and gin will be reduced by 50% to 75% before being reduced to 40% by the 10th year, whilst in the automotive sector, tariffs will be reduced to 10% – under quota – from 100% over that period. Interestingly, part of the deal exempts Indian nationals working for less than three years in the UK from insurance payments.

Members of the main opposition conservative party immediately jumped on the national insurance agreement, saying the Prime Minister once again has put British workers last, having hiked national insurance payments on them whilst exempting Indian nationals. One member of the conservative party was heard to say, “Every time Labour negotiates, Britain loses”. Labour countered by saying that the tax break goes both ways and there would be no double taxation on Britons temporarily working in India, adding that this was just an extension of current agreements already in place with other countries.

India on the other hand, according to individuals close to the negotiations, has won reductions on circa 99% of tariff lines for goods exported to the United Kingdom. India according to the same individuals has also secured an agreement for access to services including Information Technology and have also secured recourse against those exports impacted by Europe’s carbon emission rules. Both India and the UK still have to iron out legalities before the agreement can be ratified through domestic ratification processes. Experts suggest the trade pact will take up to 12 months for the deal to come into effect.

According to analysts, the India/UK trade deal should in the long run increase bilateral trade by £25.5 Billion, UK GDP by £4.8 Billion and wages by £2.2 Billion. Furthermore, businesses in the United Kingdom will be able to enjoy a competitive edge over their international competition when entering the Indian market which is forecasted to be the world’s third largest by 2028. Analysts also suggest that, based on figures from 2022, India will be cutting tariffs by £400 Million when the deal comes into force which after 10 years will more than double to circa £900 Million. Whilst this is good news all round for importers and exporters alike, the reality is that the United Kingdom has to secure a decent trade deal with Donald Trump and if not, they will have to secure a similar pact with the EU (European Union) and other countries. However, the spectre of tariffs may push countries into trade deals that before they would not have contemplated.

Are Critical Minerals China’s Trump Card?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 30, 2025. Posted in News & Reports, Uncategorized. Leave a Comment

Among the many things coveted by President Donald Trump, experts suggest “Critical Minerals”* are somewhere very near the top of the list. The reason why critical minerals are so important is that they are essential in many products such as electric car vehicles, military hardware, iPhones, clean energy, and semi-conductors, to mention but a few. There is a sub-sector or subset of Critical Minerals known as REEs** (Rare Earth Elements) and both play a crucial role in various technologies.

*Critical Minerals – These are a broad group of minerals considered essential and deemed vital for national and economic security. They are deemed critical due to their importance in modern technologies including defence and energy sectors, and all major industries, but are vulnerable to supply chain disruption. Examples of critical minerals are copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, silicon, tungsten, platinum group metals and rare earth elements.

** REEs / Rare Earth Elements – Often confused with Critical Minerals, this subset makes up a highly specific category within the critical mineral family and are made up of 15 elements in lanthanide series within the periodic table plus two who are outside the periodic table. These elements are known for their unique magnetic, catalytic, and other properties. The word rare is confusing because these elements are not so rare in the earth’s crust but found in relatively low concentration. China currently dominates the market in Rare Earth Elements.

When President Trump had finished slapping China with increase after increase in punitive tariffs, one of the responses from Beijing was to introduce controls in exports on certain elements in the Rare Earth Element category. Indeed, the Rare Earth Elements chosen by the Chinese government could be very disruptive to the United States as it is designed to have maximum impact on the American military-industrial complex. Currently, China has the greatest global control over supply of these elements and is being used as a negotiating tactic as the US/SINO trade war escalates.

Many experts are now saying that some of the tariffs introduced by President Trump are self-defeating, and this scenario is playing out in the critical mineral and rare earth element arena. China is recognised as far and away the major player within this sector, but it has an even bigger grip on the refining and processing of these minerals/elements (aka the mid-stream) rather than just the mining. Indeed, recent data released by the US Geological Survey showed that China led production in 33 of 44 critical minerals, and figures show that in 2023 China mined in excess of 75% of the world’s graphite which is the main element used in the anodes of batteries.

Whilst the western world and the United States sat back and did nothing, China has spent many years building up their dominance in the critical mineral market, not only through domestic availability (including processing) but by investing in infrastructure in overseas destinations, in return for securing supplies of minerals. Experts suggest that it will take years for the United States to build up critical mineral infrastructure in order to bypass China’s current hold in the marketplace, so to this end could Beijing hold the Trump Card in trade negotiations with the United States.

Are Tariffs Negatively Impacting America’s AI and Semi-Conductor Ambitions?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 30, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

President Donald Trump has made his desire public for U.S. global dominance in the AI and Semi-Conductor (chips) markets; however experts suggest that his tariffs will hinder domestic chip production and put a stop to his ambitions of dominating the worldwide AI market. They are portraying the escalation in tariffs which will perhaps end in an all-out trade war will dramatically increase costs in American data centres and the building of semi-conductor fabrication plants, with some analysts predicting that tariffs will become the single largest barrier to supremacy in the A1 arena.

Tech experts and industry leaders suggest tariffs will inevitably hit global supply chains, thus negatively impacting and disrupting medium to very large AI computing projects. This will be a blow to major tech companies such as Meta, Google, and Amazon who between them have pledged just for 2025, USD 300 Billion on computing infrastructure which will underpin AI projects. Furthermore, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd) has already committed USD 100 Billion to increase the capacity of chip production in the U.S. which will underpin the above-mentioned AI ambitions.

Potential supply chain issues are at the top of the agenda for many big tech executives, with one executive currently attached to a USD 500 Billion data centre enunciating that the delay of one single component could affect the whole project as the supplier is making business decisions brought on by tariffs. One only has to look at other industries like the European Wine Sector where shipments may be halted because impending tariffs are stopping suppliers putting a price on future orders. Elsewhere in the steel pipe manufacturing arena, tariffs on Chinese built ships/bulk carriers effect on supply chains can be located in Germany where port workers should be loading a first round 16,000 MT of steel piping bound for a huge Louisiana energy project, however due to the proposed levies, the cargo is now sitting gathering dust in a German warehouse.

In the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit)* market, Nvidia’s most advanced model is utilised Microsoft and Amazon in their cloud service providers platform, however these GPUs arrive in the United States as racks of servers or just a single rack which have been assembled in a number of different countries according to data released by Z2Data (supply chain data analysis platform). This is where the economics get blurred because although GPUs have been exempt from tariffs, the many components which make the GPU have not been exempt. Experts suggest that importers in the U.S. will be hit with huge costs as component and product categories are massive and it is suggested that even the smallest component can bring the supply chain to a halt.

*Graphics Processing Unit – is a specialised electronic circuit designed to accelerate computer graphics and image processing. The GPU is essential for AI, particularly for tasks like training deep learning models and handling complex computations. Their parallel processing capabilities and high memory bandwidth allow AI to significantly accelerate their workloads.

Experts are saying that even if chips were produced in the United States, they would be more expensive to produce despite the 32% proposed tariff on chips produced by Taiwan’s TSMC, as tariffs would push up prices on all key tools and materials. They went on to say the biggest loser would be American producers of chips, as despite tariffs it will still be cheaper to factories and manufacturing capacity outside the United States, dashing Trump’s dream of domestic chip manufacturing. This is a catch 22 situation for President Trump, for once he cannot have it both ways having his cake and eating it, and analysts wait to see how he will solve this particular conundrum.

Confidence in U.S. Government Bonds Can No Longer be Taken for Granted

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 16, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Amongst the financial carnage inflicted on the global markets by the introduction of punitive tariffs by President Donald Trump, global investors have been fleeing to safe haven assets, which for the first time in living memory does not include Treasuries or U.S. Government Bonds. Treasury bonds have had a tradition of being first in line for investors during adverse conditions which was true during the Global Financial Crisis, on 9/11, and even when the United States’ credit rating was cut, where Treasuries were seen to rally.

However, in today’s markets, and as Donald Trump has declared war on global trade, US Treasuries are now being questioned as the world’s best safe haven as can be seen in their surging yields*. Many experts and analysts agree that US Government Bonds and the US Dollar (which has in recent days plunged), rely on the world’s confidence in the financial and political systems of the United States in order to get their strength.

*Treasury Yields – Yields and Treasury prices have an inverse relationship as when Treasury prices rise yields fall and vice versa. Therefore when investors sell treasuries the yield rises and when they buy the yield falls.

The faith in the systems of the United States is now being tested as Thursday saw foreign investors en masse retreating for US assets with equities, treasuries, and the USD Dollar all falling together. The US Dollar fell against the Swiss Franc and the Euro by the most in 10 years, whilst 30-year Treasury yields headed north to 4.87% surging by 13 basis points. The point here is that when investors in the United States and from global markets sell off stocks, they usually find safety in U.S. Government bonds, so following the stock market route yields on treasuries rose, which is totally the opposite of trends in the near and distant past.

Economists have noted that the problems in the U.S. Government Bond market will have deep implications for the global financial system, because as Treasuries are (or were) regarded as “Risk Free Asset” they are utilised as a benchmark determining the price of stocks, mortgage rates, sovereign bonds, nearly everything including collateral for intra-day lending in the amount of trillions of US Dollars. US assets in general now appear to be being repriced as sentiment towards the U.S. as a safe haven diminishes.

There are however some dissenting voices who have concluded not everyone is losing faith in the United States’ political and financial systems. Indeed, some experts expound that long-end Treasury sell-offs are due to technical factors such as hedge funds unwinding leverage trades, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backing these views. There was even an auction of USD 22 Billion 30-year bonds on Thursday with investors, despite tariff driven volatility, showing solid demand as they did for the sale of 10-year bonds on Wednesday.

However, whatever views are held it is generally believed by experts that a message has been delivered to The White House that confidence in U.S. Government bonds can no longer be taken for granted. The lack of clarity in this administration’s policies together with their President antagonising allies and enemies alike, including their largest creditors, through his determination to rewrite the financial and trading global rules, will in the eyes of many see the rest of the world in the long run look elsewhere for safe haven assets.

China Retaliate with the Imposition of 125% Tariffs on all U.S. Imports

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 16, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

So the all-out trade war escalates between the United States and China as Beijing announces retaliatory tariffs of 125% (up from 84%) as Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on China are now effectively 145%. Officials in China confirmed that the 125% tariff will remain no matter if the White House decides to increase tariffs as the levies are now so high there is no longer a market for goods in China imported from the United States.

Chinese experts in this arena have advised that there is no sign from officials from either the United States or China that their respective governments would start negotiations which would avoid a negative impact on global supply chains. However, one official from China’s Commerce Ministry was quoted as saying, “Beijing is open to negotiate with the United States on an equal footing”.

Once again Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was on the offensive saying, “It’s unfortunate that the Chinese actually don’t want to come and negotiate, because they are the worst offenders in the international trading system”. He went on to say, “They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world, and I can tell you this escalation is a loser for them”.

Analysts suggest that due to the drag from U.S. trade tensions and slower global growth, China’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for this year will be 4%. They further advised that exports from China to the United States only accounted for circa 3% of GDP, however there is a possible negative impact on employment with circa 10–20 million Chinese workers involved with exports to America.

Elsewhere the previous U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Biden has unleashed nothing less than a massive broadside against President Trump and his economic policies, saying, “President Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the U.S. economy”. She commented that Trump and his officials have declared that they had inherited an economy in a “state of calamity and catastrophe”. However, Yellen noted the Economist back in October 2024 said the U.S. economy was the envy of the world.

As already advised previously on this website, U.S. tariffs may well drive other countries including those in the western world further into the arms of China. China is already Europe’s largest trading partner and at a meeting today between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Xi said that China and the EU (European Union) must join together in defending globalisation and oppose unilateral acts of bullying. Already the Spanish Agricultural Minister has said, “Spain will pursue closer trade ties with China in the interest of its citizens”.

As Democrats and some Republicans, along with leaders and officials of trading partners with the U.S,. a timely reminder is that the U.S. trading deficit with other countries amounted to USD 130.7 Billion in January 2025 and USD 122.7 Billion in February 2025, and many economists have voiced their wonder about how previous administrations and congress were so happy with this situation.

Obviously Donald Trump is not and has the bit between his teeth but perhaps there was a better way of rebalancing the deficit away from using tariffs. Only time will tell, but the U-turn on tariffs (10% across the board apart from China) giving a 90-day pause, is perhaps part of his intended policy (as confirmed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick) bringing trading counties to the negotiating table.

Trump 90-Day Suspension U-Turn on Tariffs Except China Sees Equities Rebound

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 10, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

In line with his election promises, President Trump has marched forward imposing global tariffs on all America’s trading partners, with some countries seeing a 10% tariff, others such as the EU (European Union) being hit with 25% tariffs, and Cambodia topping the list with a whopping 49%. Tariffs have now been returned to 10% across the board apart from China, where tariffs have been increased to 125%, as the announcement of the U-turn came 13 hours after the new tariffs came into effect. However, due to the unpredictability of the Trump2 administration, what happens in 90 days is anybody’s guess.

President Trump has suggested that the pause on tariffs is to give America’s trading partners (except China) time to reassess by making trade deals (or other deals) in order to avoid punitive tariffs. The White House has announced that they want their trading partners to reduce their own tariffs and remove barriers to trade* as such barriers have resulted in the U.S. deficit and should be eliminated. Both Canada and Mexico were not subject to these reciprocal tariffs as they were subject to a 25% tariff regarding illegal immigrants and drugs. However, imports covered by NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) are exempt.

*Barriers to Trade – These barriers are non-tariff and include:

Regulation – Any rules which dictate how a product can be manufactured, handled, or advertised.

Rules of origin – Rules which require proof of which country goods were produced in.

Quotas – Rules that limit the amount of a certain product that can be sold in a market.

Equities

Global markets saw an upward swing not seen for many decades thanks to the 90-day tariff pause, with stocks climbing across the globe. From an equities standpoint the market saw its best rally since 2008 with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rebounding 12%, the S&P 500 Index gaining 9.5%, and the Dow Jones jumping nearly 2,500 points. Europe saw Germany’s DAX rise 7%, Spain’s IBEX 35 up 7.2%, France’s CAC 40 up 6.4%, the pan continental STOXX 600 up 5.3% and the UK’s FTSE 100 up by 6.2%.

Elsewhere in the Far East and Asia, and in response to the 90-day moratorium on tariffs, Japan’s benchmark NIKKEY 225 led the way soaring upwards by 8.8% (gaining over 2,000 points), Hong Kong’s was up 2.69%, Thailand’s SET index surged 4.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.29% despite the increase in tariffs on China.

Interestingly, on President Trump’s social media, he announced a buy tip BEFORE announcing the pause on tariffs, making money for all those investors who took his advice. This has caused outrage and concern among ethics experts and opposition politicians who feel that such an announcement is tantamount to giving inside information and is a violation of securities laws.

However, a spokesperson from the White House fired back that the President has every right to reassure the markets, no doubt political opponents will not let this one go, especially as U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren said, “I am calling for an investigation into whether President Trump manipulated the market to benefit his wall street donors – all while working people and businesses paid the price”.

The US Government bond market (treasuries) has recently seen massive sell offs despite the fact that this market has always been seen as a safe haven in times of volatility and globally there have been massive falls in stock exchanges and bourses throughout the world. This suggests that after the announcement of the fresh wave of tariffs, the U.S. usually viewed as a cornerstone of the global economy has lost the confidence of many investors.

As the price of US government bonds fall, the yield or interest rate rises, which also means that the cost of financing the United States’ debt also rises, and on Wednesday, 10th April, the benchmark 10-year treasury moved to 4.516% and at one stage the 30-year bond hit 5%, being the highest since late 2023. The moves in the treasury markets had, apparently according to experts, caught the President’s eye and may have been one of the reasons he chose to pause tariffs.

China

Whilst the rest of the trading world with the United States enjoyed a 90-day pause on tariffs, President Trump hiked tariffs on China by a massive 125%, saying on a social media post, “based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China”. The decision by President Trump to escalate the tariff war on China came after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs of 84% on imports of all American goods, but Trump expects China to come to the negotiating table despite their hard line approach to tariffs.

Experts suggest that this is just not simple retaliation by President Trump but more like unfinished business from the Trump1 administration and he was quoted as saying with regards to China, “We didn’t have time to do the right thing”. Furthermore, when Trump was campaigning as an outsider for his first successful stint in the White House, one of his oft repeated themes was that China is responsible for hollowing out the American economy, driven rustbelt decline, and cost blue collar workers their livelihood and dignity.

Unless these two economic powerhouses back down, the the whole scenario will devolve into a full scale trade war hurting a bilateral trade worth circa USD 585 Billion, and this is the crux of the matter, of that USD 585 Billion America’s imports from China accounted for USD 440 Billion. Figures released by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) show the U.S.A. and China account for circa 43% of the global economy and if an all-out trade war ensued this would slow down growth in both countries, (experts suggest perhaps recession) and harm growth in other countries and slowing down global investment.

Conclusion

Sadly, there is at this time no real conclusion as there is so much uncertainty surrounding White House decision making, there is only a rolling commentary on on-going proceedings. President Trump announced a reason for the U-turn on tariffs is that people were getting yippy and nervous, but experts suggest it goes a lot deep than that with Scott Bessent (U.S. Treasury Secretary) asserting that the U-turn had been the plan all along to get the countries to the bargaining table. Now that the 90-day moratorium on tariffs has been announced, the world will hold their collective breath and wait to see how the United States v China tariff war plays out.

No one wins from an outright trade war between these two giants of the global economy, but Donald Trump has, according to experts, had it in for China since he first took over the oval office. It has also been reported that the EU and China are working together against Trump’s tariffs with Chinese Premier Quang (2nd in command in China) receiving a call from EU President Ursula von der Leyen. The White House is treading a fine line with tariffs, and they may yet push the EU and China even closer together (China is the EU’s largest trading partner) and this would totally upset the world order.

Tariffs, Tariffs and More Tariffs as Donald Trump Risks Global Trade War

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 9, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Wednesday, 2nd April 2025 (or liberation day as per President Trump), is a day that will stand out in history, as Donald Trump announced a sweeping across the board 10% tariff on all imports of goods into the United States. He further announced reciprocal tariffs of 20% and rising on countries he feels has cheated America, by which he means those countries with massive trade surpluses with the U.S. and also those who already add big tariffs to American imports. President Trump had already separately announced a tariff of 25% on all global car, truck and auto accessories starting on 3rd May 2025, and a 25% tariff on all aluminium and steel products. Experts advise that these levies/tariffs/taxes are the biggest increases since 1968.

Global markets from tech to banking have been left reeling as President Trump through his tariffs attempts to rearrange global trading and the current economic order. However, thanks to tariffs, U.S. equities have taken a beating with the three major stock indexes plunging in excess of 5%, the biggest of which was the S&P 500, which crashed by almost 6%. This was the steepest fall since 2020, and elsewhere in the United Kingdom the FTSE 100 fell by just under 5%, marking its steepest fall since 2020, with similar falls being recorded in France and Germany. The global stock market has, since Trump announced an across the board tariff of 10% on every country, lost literally trillions of dollars in value, however China, the EU (European Union) and Vietnam are all facing higher tariffs on their exports to the U.S..

On Friday, 4th April 2025, China announced a 34% tariff on products from the U.S. whilst at the same time lowering exports of essential minerals plus adding a number of American companies to their blacklist and accusing Donald Trump of violating international trade rules. The EU announced through their trade commissioner that they are still looking for meaningful discussions in the hope of reducing their across the board 20% tariff, though he promised if talks failed the EU would defend themselves. The largest EU economy is Germany and with a separate tariff of 25% on the imports of cars into the U.S. and a 20% across the board tariff on all imports into the U.S., the German economy will, according to experts, take a hit in a drop in GDP of 1.5% equivalent to a loss of Euros 200 Billion over the tenure of President Trump.

The President of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, has vowed to retaliate and condemned President Trump and went on to say that tariffs will have dire consequences for all consumer and businesses on a global basis that have enjoyed trading with the U.S. since World War II and added, “We are already finalising a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel”. The EU is of course still open to negotiations, but Ursula von der Leyen is in no mood to lie down and be trodden on. She has already announced that the EU has everything it needs to survive and survive it will. Tough talk from a tough President who will meet Donald Trump head on, so unless negotiations are successful, a full-out trade war between the U.S. is certainly on the cards and could go global.

In the United States, many experts and analysts agree that the new tariffs will push the American economy into recession, an economy which is currently losing momentum, with the result of increasing prices due to tariffs being passed on to the consumer. Analysts further advised that the tariffs could well push the American economy into a recession and have a negative effect on inflation, reversing the current downward trend. Indeed, the US Dollar shortly after the tariff announcements fell by 1.7% against a basket of European trading partners’ currencies which according to market experts reflect concern regarding growth in the economy. Some experts have warned that core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) could go as high as 4% (3.1% as of end of February 2025), unemployment to rise (despite current hiring figures showing an increase) and real GDP to decline.

In the long run, experts suggest that Trump may get his financial rewards from tariffs but his “allies” who he has hit with punitive tariffs may well look elsewhere for new trading partners, with China being the ultimate beneficiary which may well benefit BRICS* as well. Indeed, BRICS is now a major political force looking to be a counterweight to western influence with its current members accounting for just over 25% of the global economy and almost half the world’s population. There has been a lot of internal division within the BRICS organisation, with Russia leading the way over their unlawful invasion of Ukraine, however tariffs may bring them together in such a way that the allies who Trump has hit with punitive tariffs may well look to increase trade with these countries. Whilst the America First slogan is banged consistently by the U.S. administration, some of the poorest nations in Africa have been hit with punitive tariffs, with Lesotho being a prime example at a massive 50% tariff. It is no secret that BRICS want what they call the southern nations to come under their umbrella (Africa and South America) and again these tariffs could drive these nations into the arms of BRICS. Geopolitically, tariffs may be the current U.S. administration’s biggest mistake.

*BRICS – is an intergovernmental organisation consisting of ten countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The founding countries were Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and China forming BRIC with South Africa joining at a later date to form BRICS. There are a slew of countries waiting approval of membership from BRICS including Saudi Arabia who have been approved but have delayed joining.

In the United Kingdom, experts advise tariffs will hit key manufacturing sectors and will undermine the positive growth, albeit fragile, predictions of the Labour government. Many businesses are already facing rising costs due to the Chancellors’ budget and tariffs will, according to some analysts, place negative pressure on demand and weaken supply chains. The Director of the British Chamber of Commerce was heard to say that “Orders will drop, prices will rise, and global economic demand will be weaker as a result”. Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, advised he is still hopeful that negotiations will reduce the 10% tariff, however he has begun the process of consultation with regard to retaliatory tariffs should negotiations fail. Across the Irish Sea, Northern Ireland ministers announced they feel trapped as despite the 10% tariff on the United Kingdom, if the EU announces retaliatory tariffs N. Ireland could face the higher EU tariff on any U.S. imports entering from Britain under the post-Brexit deal* between the United Kingdom and the EU.

*The Northern Ireland Protocol – is intended to protect the EU single market while avoiding the imposition of a “Harder Border” that might incite the recurrence of conflict and destabilise the relative peace that has held since the end of the troubles.

In Asia, the APAC* region was hit with tariffs between 10% and 49% with the higher rates being targeted at those countries’ lower value-added items such as textiles, garments, furniture, and footwear. Vietnam (apart from China) is currently enjoying the largest trade deficit with the U.S. (USD 123.5 Billion), got hit with 46% tariff, whilst Cambodia got hit with a 49% tariff (trade deficit USD 12.13 Billion) Sri Lanka saw a 44% tariff (trade deficit USD 2.65 Billion), Bangladesh was given a 37% tariff (trade deficit USD 2.6 Billion) with larger economies in the region slightly better off with Singapore being hit with the minimum of 10% tariffs. Experts suggest that Asian currencies may face depreciation pressure as financial markets could turn risk averse affecting FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) inflow.

*APAC – stands for Asia Pacific Region and is a broad geographical region encompassing countries and territories in or near the Western Pacific Ocean. This region typically includes East Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, and surrounding islands).

In typical Trump fashion, in one fell swoop global trading has been turned on its head, geopolitics may never be the same again and markets will remain volatile for some time to come. Experts suggest it may take weeks or in some cases months to assess the fall-out from President Trump’s tariffs. President Trump may well have destroyed smaller more vulnerable economies, destroying the lives of that country’s population at the same time. However, in breaking news the White House advises that 50 countries have contacted the administration looking to do trade deals and avoid duties. Meanwhile voices in the U.S. from the CEO down to the smallest consumer are already getting louder voicing their antipathy towards tariffs with anti-tariff rallies taking place in a number of cities throughout the world. He may think he is putting “America First” but who’s to say in the long run it may well be “America Second”.

New Lenders in the Crypto World for those Crypto Companies Seeking Debt

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 26, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The crypto lending arena was nearly wiped out during the last major bear market, but is staging a huge comeback, and Cantor Fitzgerald (Cantors)* is trying to satisfy the crypto industry’s hunger for debt. Such lenders range from crypto native firms* to traditional banks and have been putting in place, or are putting in place, the means of providing capital to a whole smorgasbord of crypto market activities.

*Cantor Fitzgerald – is an American financial services firm that was founded in 1945. It specialises in institutional equity, fixed-income sales, trading, and serving the middle market with investment banking services, prime brokerage, and commercial real-estate financing. On March 11th 2025, Cantors announced that Anchorage Digital and Copper.co (“Copper”) will serve as collateral managers and custodians for the firm’s Global Bitcoin Financing.

**Crypto Native Firms – founded with the sole purpose of investing in digital assets and providing investment products in a market previously underserved by traditional asset managers. Native crypto managers have, of course, experience with digital assets and operational nuances.

After the debacle of 2002 and 2003, quite a number of crypto lending companies went bankrupt due to some very dodgy loans, and whilst crypto lending had its heyday in 2021, volume today is still well-short of that mark. Through Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024 Bitcoin lending went up by circa 300%, and with speculation in Bitcoin that propelled it above USD 100,000, fervour is spilling over and continuing to fortify the crypto lending sector, and leading the way are the decentralised finance applications.

In March 2025, Cantors started its global Bitcoin financing with an initial capital of US Dollars 2 Million. Elsewhere crypto wealth manager Xapo Bank began offering loans of up to USD 1 Million backed by Bitcoin, and securing a multi-billion US Dollar investment in its crypto lending funds is Blockstream Corp. the Bitcoin software firm. Loans against Bitcoin have been increasing by the month, with investors in the coin looking to utilise this asset as collateral for other investments.

The crypto market has always been heavily reliant on lenders who have provided critical liquidity to trading and other areas over the years, especially in times of volatility. However, the more traditional banks have avoided this market and, due to the uncertainties that surround the regulatory arena, have not lent to market participants. This decision led to the explosion of crypto lenders during the bull market in 2021. Analysts and some industry participants say, since the election of Donald Trump, crypto lending is poised to grow exponentially due to support of regulations that are favourable to the sector.

Indeed, the sector is now seeing increased interest from traditional lenders as they are becoming more comfortable with the current Trump administration and their favourable leanings toward crypto regulation and legislation. Experts suggest that this will lead to loans backed by Bitcoin that will be supported by more sophisticated risk-management and larger balance sheets at the more traditional lending institutions. However, analysts suggest that

crypto lending has returned with a more conservative approach with LTV ratios (Loan To Value) being lower, which translates into lenders reducing their risks requesting borrowers to make larger down payments. Experts advise that crypto natives can reinvent a couple of centuries of lending risks, and if crypto lending is to properly take off, the arena will need experts from outside the crypto industry.

Trump Takes Aim at Chinese Ships with Docking Levies at U.S. Ports

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 26, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The new U.S. administration has suggested imposing multi-million U.S. Dollar levies on Chinese ships wishing to dock in ports in the United States. Experts in this arena say that this will disrupt global trade and suggest the fall-out could be more disruptive to global trade than tariffs. An immediate example of this fall-out can be located in Germany where port workers should be loading a first round 16,000 MT of steel piping, bound for a huge Louisiana energy project. However due to the proposed levies, the cargo is now sitting gathering dust in a German warehouse.

This is a nightmare scenario for exporters, importers, and ship owners alike – especially as on this particular Atlantic shipping route, 80% of these ships were all built in China. The owners of the ships are not necessarily Chinese, it is just the ships that were built in China, which are being targeted. In this instance, the shipment of 16,000 MT of steel pipes are looking at a potential levy/surcharge of USD 1–3 Million which means the overall transportation cost could increase by 200%–300%.

Current data from the USTR (Office of the US Trade Representative), reveals that China now produces in excess of 50% of the world’s cargo ships by tonnage, (5% in 1999), with Korea and Japan accounting for most of the remaining cargo ship building. In 2024, shipyards in this arena accounted for 0.01% of cargo ships built, thus experts have surmised that this levy madness on Chinese-built ships can only help the long-held aim of the USTR in reviving the US merchant shipbuilding industry, a sleeping giant if there ever was one.

On Monday, 24th March 2025, a hearing begins in Washington D.C. into the ramifications of this trade levy, with representatives from industries from all corners of the world. They will explain to the hearing that these proposals are more damaging than Trump tariffs because of the severe threat to supply chains and, as a result, would severely disrupt global trade, dwarfing the results of any trade tariffs. Furthermore, some carriers have announced that not only will the increase in costs be passed on, but will pull out of docking at smaller ports which, of course, will suffer from the downturn in business.

Analysts suggest that, in theory, these levies could generate between USD 40–52 Billion for the United States. However many U.S. companies are worried as there are escalating tariffs on Chinese goods, aluminium, and steel, plus there are reciprocal tariffs due on 2nd April 2025. However, analysts point to the obvious downside, where U.S. businesses (especially the farming industry) and ultimately the U.S. consumer will come under pressure, raising prices throughout the United States, and threatening jobs across the board.

However, the revival of the U.S. shipping industry is definitely in the sights of President Donald Trump and has now been cast as part of National Security as per the issue of the draft document “Make Shipbuilding Great Again”. Once again, it is felt that President Trump will put pressure on allies to do the same or they will face penalties as well. It is feared the allies are currently not happy being treated like second-rate citizens, so this outcome will be interesting to see. Everyone involved in the United States appears to agree that U.S. shipbuilders cannot compete on an even playing field due to unfair production and market practices by the Chinese.

However some major U.S. carriers have advised if the full implementation of this draft document is achieved, it could put them out of business. There is hope that some of the proposals will be watered down, but if not one veteran in the maritime transportation industry advised that these proposals will be like an “Apocalypse for the trade”. Furthermore, due to lack of domestic production, the “Louisiana Energy Gateway” project (slated to deliver the next generation of LNG – Liquid Natural Gas a Trump favourite), still needs 16,000 MT of steel piping.

Major US Investment Banks are Recalibrating and Pulling Back from China

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on February 27, 2025. Posted in Industry, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Once upon a time China was regarded as one of the major centres for the expansion of investment banking, with many of these banks viewing China as one of the crown jewels within their portfolios. Today, with the United States applying more tariffs and restrictions on the country, the China economy is reeling from huge losses in the property sector; the economy which conservatively speaking has been sluggish, has put the brakes on deal flows. As a result, many global investment banks are rethinking their “China Strategy” and pulling back from the USD67 Trillion financial services market.

A number of analysts confirm that back in December 2024 a number of US Investment Banks conferred with the US Treasury regarding the rules and regulations as to how their clients may comply with investing in China. It is understood that many of these executives left the meeting with less understanding of the situation and many with more questions than answers. Experts suggest the bankers needed to understand the rules and guidelines concerning investing in those Chinese companies by their clients, which pose potential national security risks. Furthermore, which reporting requirements were needed and which deals would now qualify under the new rules.

So as these institutions pull back from China, the recipients of their largesse seem to be according to experts, Japan and India who are not filling the large investment hole that leaving China has produced. Indeed, many of these international investment houses and banks have reduced staff or as some analysts put it “pared to the bone” to levels that just meet the minimum staffing requirements by the Chinese financial regulators allowing these companies to operate in their jurisdiction. Despite numerous financial stimuli, many bank bosses are sceptical that there will be any decent improvement in China’s economic prospects.

Some experts point to November 2020 as the point where global confidence in China began to decrease. In that month, the Ant Group controlled by Jack Ma were just about to issue their IPO (Initial Public Offering), which at the time would have been the world’s largest, in the amount of USD35 Billion in Shanghai and Hong Kong. However, instead of marking what would have been a high point in China’s booming business sector, the Chinese authorities pulled the IPO at the last minute. Experts confirmed this action by the Chinese authorities marked the start of China’s war on private companies/enterprise, and the beginning of declining global confidence in China which also sabotaged Hong Kong’s standing as a major funding centre for Chinese companies.

Interestingly, analysts advise that some Wall Street banks consider China a long-term bet with one senior banker suggesting that there could be double digit growth in 2025, but experts suggest that his peers disagree, and China may take years to achieve this figure. However, let’s not forget Hong Kong where many US banks have successfully made significant profits from Greater China, which has historically accounted for a significant share of any earnings. Last week February 10^th – 14^th 2025 bankers were encouraged by a rebound in Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong (they hit a three year high), this on the back of China participating and maybe becoming a major player in the AI artificial intelligence sector.

However, all eyes are on the US administration and whether or not they will increase tariffs on imports from China having already levied a 10% charge and what will be China’s reaction and the overspill into their already problematic economy. Elsewhere on the tariff front, the recent bombshell of more tariffs announced on Tuesday 18^th February 2025 by Donald Trump where he intends to impose levies of 25% on the importation of auto parts, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals as early as 2^nd April 2025. President Trump did not specify what countries he had in mind, but currently Germany seems to be on the cards.

The big question is will the president hold true to his pre-election promises or will he, like Canada and Mexico, use tariffs as a club to beat countries into agreeing to other demands. However, he has promised tariffs to put “America First” so whatever happens, 2025 may see an all-out trade war with the world and especially consumers are in for a fairly bumpy ride.

Tag: Trading