Interest Rates Archives

The Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 19, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, the BOEs (Bank of England) MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted by 7 – 2 in favour of keeping interest rates steady at 3.75% with two dissenting members of Huw Pill and Megan Greene both voting to increase the rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. The BOE has advised that inflation would pick up to just over 3.25% in Q4, lower than previously forecasted in April of this year. The decision to keep interest rates on hold came in the wake of data released showing the UK’s unemployment rate falling to 4.90% in the three months to April.

Recent data released from the ONS (Office of National Statistics) shows that the number of United Kingdom job vacancies fell to its lowest level for five years as businesses cut back on recruitment. On the inflation front the Governor of the BOE Andrew Bailey has advised that there “still is some inflationary pressure in the pipeline” with the Middle East crisis weighing negatively on energy and pushing up prices. He also stressed the political neutrality of the BOE but underlined the fact that political stability is critical during sensitive moments such as the upcoming Makerfield by-election as monetary policy relies on predictability.

Megan Greene, one of the two dissenting voters looking for a ¼% hike in interest rates highlighted the uncertainty over the impact on households and businesses of higher energy prices. However, Governor Bailey was quoted as saying, “Energy prices have come down quite a lot, but they are still above where they were before this conflict started. Inflation is higher than we expected it to be”. He went on to say, “I think holding is the right position to be in at the moment for that, so I think it is a sensible decision in light of the news”. Experts noted that the MPC met just before the Iran/United States peace deal was signed and when the MPC meets again at the end of July votes may well be swayed when the success and longevity of the peace deal will be clearer.

Analysts advise that financial markets reacted with a cautious but dovish tilt to the BOEs decision to keep interest rates at 3.75%with a notable shift in Sterling weakness and a fall in equities, as investors interpreted the BOEs downgraded inflation outlook as a signal that disinflation is taking hold. The money markets are pricing in the potential for one rate hike by the close of business 2026, and the swaps market is currently pricing in a higher for longer trajectory for central bank base rates with no immediate return to lower interest rates. Currently, experts are suggesting there is a wait and see outlook as to whether or not the Iran/US peace deal holds.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 19, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, and chairing his first FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh and all his colleagues on the FOMC voted unanimously to keep interest rates steady in the range of 3.50% – 3.75%. Rates remained unchanged despite the fact that headline inflation is currently 3.80% with core inflation sitting at 3.30% (excludes volatile energy and food costs) which is well above the Fed’s long-term target figure of 2.00%. The policymakers SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) raised their forecast for interest rates advising that there may be one rate hike between now and the end of the year.

Officials further advised that inflation remained in an elevated state partly due to supply shocks due to the United States/Iran Israel conflict which has caused energy prices to skyrocket. The Federal Reserve has a dual-purpose mandate where they have to keep inflation at the target figure of 2.00% whilst ensuring maximum employment. Signals emanating from inside the Federal Reserve suggest that policymakers now consider the employment market to be in a healthy state and are now going to concentrate on tackling inflation.

In his first post-meeting press conference as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh announced plans to overhaul the central bank with a particular eye on its public communications. He went on to advise he will create five new taskforces that will look into productivity and jobs, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, data, and broad conduct of monetary policy including communications. Language in the committee’s statement has already changed with Chairman Warsh acknowledging “It’s a bit shorter, a bit simpler and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts, as best we can judge it”.

The statement also noted that “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong, job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2.00% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy”. Chairman Warsh told reporters that the Federal reserve is committed to reducing inflation to 2.00%.

Since President Trump took office for the second time there have been unprecedented attacks from the White House on the character and policy decisions of Chairman Warsh’s predecessor Jerome Powell. Under his watch the FOMC last cut interest rates on 10th December 2025, and he regularly incurred the President’s wrath as he was insisting the Federal Reserve cut rates on a regular basis. Interestingly, with a new hawkish stance in the Federal Reserve, Trump has withheld judgement on the new leader of the Federal Reserve (also Trump’s pick for the job), and has said “he will be guided by what he (Warsh) wants. An interesting about turn for a leader who is dead set on interest rate cuts. However, if rates do not come down sometime soon, we may see President Trump reversing to type with the new Federal Reserve leader coming in for a bit of White House wrath.

Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 16, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, the BOJ (Bank of Japan) voted by a majority of 7–1, (the one dissenting vote was board member Toichiro Asda) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%, the highest interest rates have been for 31 years. Experts advise that the BOJ will continue to vote for interest rate increases every six months with the possibility of a further increase by the end of the year. The board met without Governor Kazuo Ueda, (the first time since 2010 that the board has voted without a Governor present), who is currently hospitalised with an illness.

In the absence of the Governor, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida chaired the meeting and in the post-meeting press conference said, “Compared with the previous meeting in April, the U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum. That is a welcome. Having said that, there is uncertainty on the pace of improvement in distribution (of oil)”. He went on to say, “The risk of a sharp deterioration in the economy has diminished. On the other hand, prices are broadening, and there is a risk that underlying inflation may deviate from our target”.

On the pace of future rate hikes Deputy Governor Uchida said, “We will look at economic, price and financial developments, particularly with an eye on the Middle East situation, for the time being. We’ll look at whether the economy and prices are moving in line with our forecasts, as well as risks. With underlying inflation approaching 2.00%, we need to be mindful of upward price risks. We will guide policy so that we won’t fall behind the curve. The main difference between our previous meeting and this one is that downside risks to Japan’s economy have subsided significantly. Additionally, we have seen steady pass-through of costs in business-to-business prices, which led us to be more vigilant to inflation risks”.

Indeed, analysts advise that recent data shows that in May wholesale inflation* spiking to a 3-year high of 6.30% signifying that companies were passing on higher costs due to the energy shock created by the United States/Iran Israel conflict. However, they expect core consumer inflation to increase above the target inflation level of 2.00% later this year as it had originally fallen below the target level due to government subsidies aimed at curbing utility bills. The conflict in the Middle East has added complications to the policy path being pursued by the BOJ adding inflationary pressure through increasing costs of oil which hurts an economy that is heavily reliant on imported fuel and other energy derivatives.

*Wholesale Inflation – Measures the rising or falling costs of raw materials and goods in bulk before they reach the consumer.

Headline Inflation – represents the overall increase in prices for goods and services within an economy, as measured in total consumption including the volatile prices of food and energy.

Underlying or Core Inflation – Measures and tracks the long-term structural trend of consumer prices excluding volatile prices of food and energy.

The decision to raise rates is not only to tackle Japan’s inflation problems but it is also in an effort to stabilise Japan’s currency, the Yen, which has come under pressure from major currencies such as the Euro and the U.S. Dollar, with one expert commenting that there has been a sense that the Yen is too cheap and that raising the interest rate will not hurt. The Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is renowned for boosting spending in Japan but has not been critical of the BOJ’s interest rate policy even though she has previously been dismissive of rate hikes.

ECB Raises Interest Rates

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 11, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, the ECB (European Central Bank) voted in an unanimous decision to hike its key deposit interest rate by 25 basis points from 2.00% to 2.25%, with data confirming this is the first rate increase by the ECB since September 2025. The ECB also raised its main refinancing operations rate to 2.40% and their marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%, the difference in these three rates are explained below*.

*ECB Interest Rates – The ECB has three interest rates; the key deposit rate is the interest rate banks receive when they deposit money overnight with the ECB. The other two facilities are the main refinancing operations, which is the rate banks pay when they borrow money from the ECB for one week, and the Marginal Lending Facility, which is the rate banks pay when they borrow money overnight from the ECB.

The interest rate hike came as no surprise to financial markets, with experts advising this move had been telegraphed by the ECB for quite some time. This decision is a clear reversal of the monetary easing approach taken by the ECB throughout most of last year, and analysts advise it is mainly due to energy prices rising by 10.90%, driving headline inflation to 3.20% in May (up from 3.00% in April). As data reveals, it is the highest since September 2023. Furthermore, core inflation (not including food and energy) hit 2.50% in May up from 2.20% in April, showing that it is not only energy prices that are being impacted from the USA/Iraq/Israel conflict.

The policymaker responsible for the ECB’s market operations, Isabel Schnabel, according to officials, was the board member who made her point most forcefully beforehand to raise interest rates today. She said whether or not a peace agreement in the Middle East occurs now, the duration of the current conflict and how the broader economy was reacting to increased energy prices, should force the ECB to raise interest rates. Schnabel also went on to say that inflation in the eurozone could hit 4.00% by the end of the year.

At a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “We are beginning to see a broadening of inflation throughout the economy, and that is obvious in terms of direct effect – not yet at this point in front of the second round effects*, but we are going to be extremely attentive”. The President went on to say that, “Our discussions were predicated on, obviously the major energy shock that we have observed since the beginning of March, that is enduring longer than expected by geopolitical experts, and which we are beginning to see broadening throughout the economy”.

*Second round effects – In these scenarios, second round effects are price and wage-settings stemming from the current shock that have the potential to raise Eurozone inflation beyond the near-term in a persistent manner.

President Lagarde has kept her options open regarding further interest rates, and financial markets are predicting that the ECB may raise interest rates a further two or three times by the end of 2026. Traders are currently pricing in a deposit rate reaching up to 2.75% with swap markets heavily pricing in another 25 basis point increase.

The ECB keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on May 1, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Yesterday, and for the third straight meeting, the Governing Council of the ECB (European Central Bank) voted unanimously to keep their key benchmark deposit rate steady at 2.00%. Financial markets were expecting a rate hold, as the ECB kept their three key interest rates* at their lowest level for more than two years. However, sentiment within the governing council is changing as growth is weakening on the downside and price pressures are building on the upside.

*ECB Interest Rates – The ECB has three interest rates, one being the key deposit rate, which as mentioned above was held at 2.00% and is the interest rate banks receive when they deposit monies overnight with the ECB. The other two facilities are the Main Refinancing Operations (rate held at 2.15%) which is the rate the banks pay when they borrow monies from the ECB for one week, and the Marginal Lending Facility (rate held at 2.40%), which is the rate banks pay when they borrow monies overnight from the ECB.

Indeed, officials noted that policymakers within the ECB will probably vote to increase interest rates at their next meeting in June, unless the crisis in the Middle East abates and there are some positive developments on energy prices. Those close to the ECB’s decision, while asking for anonymity, noted that there was little chance of avoiding a rate hike in June, but stressed that the situation is fluid and can change quickly.

President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, said, “the next six weeks will be the right time to assess the economy in order to make an informed decision on verified and revisited information”. The president went on to say, “we made an informed decision on the basis of yet insufficient information. We debated the decision that we have unanimously taken today, but we also debated at length, and in depth, a decision to possibly hike”.

Experts advise that officials from the ECB have not been convinced from data received the need to tighten monetary policy, with the increasing prices of energy such as oil and natural gas yet to trigger “second round effects”*. In a statement issued by ECB officials, they said, “the upside risk to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified. The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty”.

*Second Round Effects – In these scenarios second round effects are price and wage-settings stemming from the current shock that have the potential to raise Eurozone inflation beyond the near-term in a persistent manner.

Analysts advise that financial markets suggest that ECB officials will prioritise an upswing in prices (by 3% in April), which are suffering negative effects from the USA/Iran/Israel crisis. Traders have accordingly priced in 75 basis points rise in interest rates by the end of the year. President Lagarde noted that, “there is one element that is going to have a real impact, and that is the duration of the conflict”.

Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 30, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, the BOE’s (Bank of England) MPC (monetary Policy Committee) voted 8 – 1 to hold the benchmark interest rate steady ay 3.75%, with the Chief Economist, Huw Pill, being the only dissenting member voting to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. Interestingly, other members of the MPC acknowledged that in future meetings they might in fact join Mr Pill in calling for a rate increase.

Officials noted that in the Q3 of this year, they now forecast that inflation will be circa 1.4% higher than their original forecast in the last report issued this February. Indeed, Governor Andrew Bailey said, “holding rates was a reasonable place to be given the softness in the UK economy”, but argued that rates may well have to rise because of the disruptions to energy supplies due to the current Middle East situation.

Clare Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden, both Deputy Governors, plus external members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene, all signalled that in the future, rates may need to go up tightening financial conditions. The MPC noted that it stands ready to act, should further data shows negative impacts on inflation, such language indicating they will raise interest rates if need be.

Governor Bailey said, “attempting to bring inflation back to target too quickly after a shock like this may cause undesirable volatility in output. There is not much monetary policy can do to prevent these cost increases from affecting UK businesses and households. Thursday’s wild swings in the oil price were an example of how the BOE simply cannot stop the music and make decisions based on a certain level of expected cost pressures”.

Latest official data shows that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose to a three month high of 3.30% in March on the back of accelerating fuel prices. The price of motor fuels month-on-month saw the largest increase since June 2022, jumping by a spectacular 8.70% as disruption to transportation and oil production drove prices higher for both diesel and petrol. Officials of the BOE suggested that if the Middle East conflict were to continue and worsen, inflation could rise as high as 6.20%.

Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, the BOE this time round has not published any forecasts for inflation and other key economic indicators. Instead, the BOE has produced three scenarios based on energy prices and “second round effects”. In the toughest case, scenario C, they suggest that inflation could peak to around 6.20% in early 2027, and stay above the BOE’s 2.00% inflation target for years, forcing interest rates higher.

Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 30, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Yesterday, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, officiated at his last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting where benchmark interest rates were kept on hold for a third consecutive time at 3.50% – 3.750%. The increasing uncertainty with the Middle East crisis left the committee deeply divided voting by 8 – 4 to keep interest rates steady. This was the first time since October 1992 where four committee members dissented against the FOMC decision, with Governor Stephen Moran voting in favour of a 25 basis point cut.

Three other Federal Reserve Presidents: Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan of Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas respectively, all agreed to hold rates but dissented because they “could not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time”. Experts suggest that the dissents caught financial markets by surprise, and despite the nomination by President Trump of dove leaning Kevin Warsh* as the new Fed Chair, the vote could indicate a shift away from rate cuts at future meetings.

*Kevin Warsh – He has passed a major hurdle to become the next Chairman of the federal reserve, as yesterday, he was approved by the Senate Banking Committee. The nomination now advances to a full senate vote with the earliest date being the 11^th May 2026.

Analysts advise that money markets are betting that there will be no further rate cuts in 2026. However, analysts now suggest a better than 25% chance of a rate hike by early next year. This shift comes as oil prices climb back above $100/bbl, driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 25% of the world’s oil. Experts advise the big fear for policymakers is that the current energy-driven price shock feeds into a broader, more consistent core inflation.

On that note, US headline inflation for March 2026 jumped to 3.30%, the highest level since May 2024. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also rose slightly to 2.60%, with policymakers still adopting a wait and see attitude towards inflation. However, on the employment front, the unemployment rate for now appears to have stabilised, but net hiring flattened out to just about zero over the past year. Experts and policymakers are suggesting this would make the labour market more vulnerable to shocks.

Finally, Chairman Powell’s tenure as the Chair of the Federal reserve ends on 15^th May 2026, but under current rules he can remain on the board until January 2028. Historically, Fed Chairs typically resign from the Board of Governors entirely upon leaving the chair. However, Jerome Powell has opted to remain on the board, a decision that prevents President Trump from appointing a new governor who might align more closely with White House policies. Chairman Powell noted, “I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair”.

The Bank of Japan Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 28, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, and at the end of a two-day MPM (Monetary Policy Meeting), the BOJ’s (Bank of Japan) Policy Board held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75%. The decision to keep interest rates unchanged was reached by a majority decision by members of 6 – 3, which represents the biggest split under the present leadership of Governor Kazuo Ueda. Analysts advise that the split in the board’s decision suggests an indication that there could be a rate hike at the next MPM in June, with money markets offering a 68% chance of a rate increase.

Officials from the BOJ revised upwards their inflation estimates as supply-side risks were elevated due to the United States/Iran/Israel conflict in the Middle East. The three dissenting members voted to raise the benchmark interest rate to 1%, arguing the conflict had skewed price risks upwards. Officials also warned that economic growth may well deteriorate due to the negative impact of the current Middle East crisis which is increasing the price of crude oil. The BOJ also cut its forecast for growth from 1.00% to 0.50%, whilst raising its core inflation estimate (excludes food and energy prices) from 1.90% to 2.80%.

After the policy meeting, Governor Ueda said, “given the high level of uncertainty around the conflict in the Middle East, the likelihood of achieving our forecasts have declined. The bank wants to spend a little more time scrutinising how the Middle East conflict affects the economy and prices, and whether the risk to growth and inflation could change”. Governor Ueda went on to say, “the bank would make the appropriate decisions so that we do not fall behind the curve”, however, he did not give a timeline for the central bank to gauge whether the conditions were right to raise interest rates.

Interestingly, one financial strategist suggested that the hawkish hold by the central bank was as much about currency defence as inflation control, signalling growing intolerance to further yen weakness as domestic and growth prove resilient. In 2026, the yen has weakened by circa 1.50% against the US Dollar and is currently trading at 159.12. Borrowing costs in Japan are at their highest level since September 1995, and as the war in the Middle East continues, interest rates can only rise further. Even if the conflict stopped tomorrow, it will still be many months before prices of crude oil and their offshoots will return to pre-conflict prices.

Comparing online business funding services: Interest rates and features

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 24, 2026. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Key insights for financial strategy in 2026

Dynamic pricing: In 2026, business loan interest rates comparison data shows a shift toward real-time risk pricing, where rates fluctuate based on your live digital accounting data.
Feature over rate: Leading online business funding services now offer covenant-light structures, prioritising repayment flexibility over the lowest possible headline rate.
Corporate versatility: Modern business funding services ltd models have expanded beyond simple term loans to include sophisticated corporate revolving credit facility options.

How do online business funding services compare in terms of interest rates?

Online business funding services typically offer interest rates ranging from 6% to 22% APR, depending on the security and speed of the facility. Small business funding online through traditional digital lenders usually carries higher rates (12%+) due to higher risk, while business revenue funding services offer variable rates linked to monthly sales. To secure better interest rates for business funds, companies should opt for asset-backed or secured facilities, which offer the lowest market rates.

The landscape of small business funding online

What are the primary features of online business funding?

When evaluating small business funding online, founders must look beyond the APR. Key features in 2026 include instant disbursement and API-Integration. Unlike traditional banks, business funding services ltd providers use automated underwriting to provide funding decisions in hours. However, the trade-off for this speed is often a higher interest rate compared to a traditional, slower-moving bank loan.

Strategies: How to secure better interest rates for business funds

To achieve the most competitive rates, businesses should focus on credit enhancement. In the 2026 market, this involves:

Providing real-time data: Lenders offer transparency discounts for companies that provide direct read-access to their ERP and banking APIs.
Securing the loan: Utilising asset-backed financing or an SBLC significantly lowers the lender’s risk, dropping rates into the mid-single digits.
Opting for a corporate revolving credit facility: Instead of a lump-sum loan, a corporate revolving credit facility allows you to pay interest only on the capital you are currently using, effectively lowering your total cost of capital.

Comparison: Business revenue funding services vs. term loans

For many firms, business revenue funding services (revenue-based financing) have replaced traditional debt. Here is how they compare to modern online term loans:

Feature	Revenue-based funding	Online corporate term loan
Typical interest/cost	1.1x – 1.3x factor rate	7% – 15% APR
Repayment structure	% of monthly sales	Fixed monthly payments
Collateral required	None (unsecured)	Often required (asset-backed)
Speed to fund	24 – 48 hours	5 – 14 days

Understanding the corporate revolving credit facility

A corporate revolving credit facility is increasingly becoming the preferred feature for mid-to-large entities. In 2026, these facilities function like a high-limit business credit card but with the interest rates of a commercial loan. This provides a liquidity insurance policy, you have the funds available to bridge a gap or seize an opportunity, but you don’t incur interest costs until the moment you draw the funds down.

Frequently asked questions

Which online business funding services provide the lowest rates?

Services that focus on business loan interest rates comparison generally show that direct lenders utilising private capital offer the lowest rates for secured loans. Aggregator sites may show lower headline rates, but these often include hidden origination fees that increase the effective APR.

How do I know if business revenue funding services are right for me?

Business revenue funding services are ideal for high-margin companies with fluctuating seasonal sales. Because your payments scale with your revenue, you avoid the risk of a fixed-payment cash crunch during slow months.

What is the advantage of using business funding services ltd over a major bank?

The primary advantage is execution certainty. While a major bank might offer a slightly lower rate, their approval process is prone to last-minute turn-downs. Business funding services ltd providers offer transparent, data-driven commitments that are much more reliable for urgent business needs.

Ready to find the most competitive rates for your business?

Don’t settle for high-street bank limitations. Contact IntaCapital Swiss today for a bespoke funding comparison.

Central Banks who have Kept Interest Rates Steady Despite the Iranian Conflict

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 15, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Two months ago, on February 28^th the United States and Israel launched a major military campaign against Iran, which after thirty 39 days came to a halt (on 7th April 2026) so peace talks could take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. The US delegation to Islamabad was led by Vice President J.D. Vance who yesterday announced, after 21 hours of talks, that negotiations with the Iranians had sadly failed.

However, since the conflict began, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil is shipped. During this time, the price of oil has shot up and down on the back of President Trump’s announcements, usually on his media outlet, Truth Social. Currently, jet fuel prices per the European Benchmark have more than doubled, rising from a pre-conflict price of $831/tonne to a closing price of $1,838/tonne on Friday, April 3rd. Similarly, the benchmark Brent Crude oil price has surged from approximately $70/bbl before the conflict to peaks exceeding $119/bbl. It currently sits at $102.22/bbl, following a closing price of $95.20/bbl on Friday the 26th.

Oil prices are now well above pre-conflict prices and as such, inflation is at the forefront of thoughts of policymakers at central banks across the globe. The recent failure of peace talks between Iran and the United States has resulted in the increased attention to inflation in the bond markets where, according to experts, the expectation is there will be no movement downward in interest rates but they will stay higher for longer. Many experts are suggesting that if the conflict carries on for much longer, and as increased energy prices are reflected in CPI (consumer price index), central banks may have to increase interest rates to battle rising inflation. Last week’s data released revealed that in the US there was the steepest advance in consumer prices for nearly four years.

However, last week a number of central banks had policy meetings where interest rates were kept on hold despite the conflict as can be seen below:

New Zealand

On Wednesday 8^th April 2026, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the RBNZ (Royal Bank of New Zealand) kept the Benchmark OCR (Official Cash Rate) at 2.25% with officials noting, “If the increase in near term inflation is largely temporary, the committee envisages gradually moving the OCR to more neutral levels as activity recovers and near term inflation dissipates. However, any signs of significant second round inflation expectations would require decisive and timely increases in the OCR to re-anchor inflation expectations. The committee is vigilant to these risks”.

Local economists and analysts suggest that headline inflation will hit 4.50% by June/July this year, outstripping the RBNZ’s target of 1% – 3% for 2026. The Governor of the RBNZ, Anna Breman, said that the MPC had discussed the possibility of a “relatively early” increase in interest rates. However, she later advised that committee members were not close to enforcing such a measure at this time.

South Korea

On Friday 10^th April 2026, the MPB (Monetary Policy Board) of the BOK (Bank of Korea), by a unanimous decision, held its Benchmark Seven-Day Repurchase Rate steady at 2.50%. The BOK Governor Rhee Chang Yong issued a warning that due to the United States/Iran conflict, inflation may outpace this year’s forecast as the economy is threatened with a bigger supply shock than was seen after Ukraine was invaded by Russia.

Governor Rhee warned that it was too early to make any substantial policy decisions and will hold off from adjusting rates whilst waiting to see if the supply shock proves temporary or not. Officials have advised that following the failure of US/Iran peace talks, the bank has adopted a cautious stance of monitoring whilst maintaining steady interest rates amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty.

Peru

On Thursday 9^th April 2026, the Consejo de Politica Monetaria/MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BCRP (The Central Reserve Bank of Peru) left its Benchmark Reference Interest Rate steady at 4.25% for the seventh straight month. Officials noted after the meeting, that policymakers were of the opinion that the previous month’s surge in inflation would only be of a temporary nature.

Officials went on to say, “it is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy (underlying inflation) will return to the target range towards the end of the year and settle around 2.00% as the effects of supply shocks gradually dissipate”. Among emerging market economies, Peru has one of the lowest interest rates and despite on-going political turmoil enjoys one of the more stable economies and currencies amongst Latin American countries.

Kenya

On Wednesday April 8^th 2026, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) held their Benchmark Central Bank Interest Rate (CBR) at 8.75% finally ending a two year easing cycle. Analysts advise that the CBK’s mid-point target range for inflation is 5.00% and inflation currently remains below that figure, despite ticking up to 4.40%.

In a statement following the meeting, the Governor of CBK Kamau Thugge noted, “The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains, leading to significantly higher energy prices and heightened risks to the global economic outlook”. The Governor also noted that likeminded central banks in the region (including South Africa) have paused monetary policy decisions whilst awaiting the outcome of the current Middle East conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel.

Governor Thugge went on to say that helped by appropriate monetary policy actions, inflation is expected to remain within the target range of 2.50% – 7.50%, and he further expected food prices to be stable due predicted good weather and a stable exchange rate. However, analysts warn that due to the consequences of the Iran/US conflict, prices of fuel and food may well rise, testing the upper limits of a 2.50% – 7.50% inflation band.

Romania

On Tuesday 7^th April 2026, the NBR Board (Board of the National Bank of Romania – monetary policy committee) of the BNR (Banca Nationala a Romaniei) kept its Benchmark Monetary Policy Rate* on hold at, and for the thirteenth time since October 2024 , at 6.50%. Officials also advised that that the NBR had left unchanged the Deposit Facticity Rate**at 5.50% and the Lending Facility Rate*** at 7.50%

*Monetary Policy Rate – The main benchmark interest rate for 1-week repo operations which guides interbank market rates.

**Lending Facility Rate (Lombard) – The rate used by the central bank to provide overnight liquidity to banks.

***Deposit Facility Rate – The rate at which banks can deposit excess funds with the central bank

Officials noted after the meeting that, “ High uncertainties and risks to the outlook for economic activity, implicitly the medium-term inflation developments, arise however from the Middle East war and the on-going energy crisis, via the effects potentially exerted through multiple channels on consumer purchasing power, as well as firm’s activity and profits, also by affecting the dynamics of economies and inflation in Europe/Worldwide and the risk perception towards the region, with an impact on financing costs”. Put simply, along with many other central banks, rates are left on hold as the world awaits the outcome of the on-going crisis in the Middle East.

Analysts suggest, as does the above cross-section of central banks, that interest rates are being kept on hold until the on-going conflict between Iran/US becomes clearer. Or in some countries if inflation had spiked dramatically interest rates may well be increased. Financial markets are waiting to see what interest rate decisions will be made by the Federal Reserve, the BOE (Bank of England) and the ECB (European Central Bank) on 29^th – 30^th April 2026 respectively.

Tag: Interest Rates