Banking Archives

Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates to Zero

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 23, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Thursday 19th June, the SNB (Swiss National Bank) announced their benchmark interest rate was being cut by 25 basis points to zero and is now standing very close to a negative interest rate for the first time since 2022. However, the SNB has not ruled out moving the interest rate into negative territory and the Chairman, Martin Schlegel, stressed that such a move would be subject to great deliberation. The current decision has confirmed that the interest rate is the lowest against their global counterparts.

Chairman Schlegel in a radio interview said, “We are aware that negative interest rates are a challenge for many of our stakeholders in the economy. Negative rates also have negative side effects for savers, bankers, pension funds, and so on – we are very aware of that. If we were to lower rates into negative territory, then the hurdles would certainly be higher than with a normal rate cut in positive territory. When questioned about a rate cut at the next meeting on Thursday 25th September 2025, Chairman Schlegel sat on the fence stressing that officials will weigh data and forecasts at that time.

The cut in interest rates by a ¼ of 1% is the sixth consecutive cut by the SNB forced on the bank by the current strength of Swiss Franc which has caused consumer prices to drop for the first time in four years. President Schlegel was quoted as saying, “the SNB is attempting to counter lower inflationary pressure” and went on to stress “We will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust our monetary policy if necessary. The SNB had indicated back in March of this year that monetary easing was probably finished, but the currency’s role as a safe haven from global economic turmoil forced their hand, and they have hinted that more cuts may be necessary to stop inflows of the Swiss Franc.

Once again President Trump and his tariff policy which has disrupted global trade underscores the impact it has had on Switzerland. Dramatic shifts in policy by the current administration in the United States has certainly deeply worried investors with the result the Swiss Franc has risen to its highest level against the US Dollar, whilst in Q1 of this year inflation was driven below zero for the first time since March 2021. Another option to control the Swiss Franc is intervention in the foreign exchange markets, but this brings political pressure as Donal Trump has already accused Switzerland of being currency manipulators, a statement vehemently denied by Chairman Schlegel.

There is disagreement within the financial markets with some experts suggesting that unless the situation drastically changes between now and September that the current decision to cut interest rates to zero paves the way for a further cut in September pushing interest rates into negative territory. However, countering this argument other experts have said that unless higher tariffs cause a significant downturn in the Swiss economy the SNB were likely to hold at 0.00%. Current bets on another rate cut have been factored in by money markets at 57%. However, Switzerland’s two-year bond yield, which is highly rate sensitive, remains in negative territory, is a sign that financial markets still anticipate a September cut.

Bank of England Holds Interest Rate Steady

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 23, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Thursday 19th June the BOE (Bank of England) held benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25% – 4.00% with the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voting 6 – 3 leaving rates on course for a potential cut at the next meeting on August 7th, 2025. Two external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra plus the Deputy Governor David Ramsden preferred a quarter point reduction, however experts had already predicted a 6 to 3 vote in favour of holding rates steady. The money markets taking its lead from a more dovish vote by the MPC increased the odds on further interest rate cuts, priced in a further two ¼ of 1% cuts by June 2026. Interestingly, even before today’s announcement the financial markets had already priced in an 80% chance of a ¼% cut in August.

Governor Bailey warned that the world is in a highly unpredictable space with concerns that the current conflict between Iran (a major oil producer) and Israel could affect energy costs by sending them higher, thus negatively impacting prices by driving them higher. The BOE confirmed it is sensitive to events in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices where prices could be driven higher, which could then negatively impact the UK economy. The BOE noted that since their last meeting in May gas prices are up by 11% and oil had risen by 26%, however service inflation* an important indicator for the BOE fell in April from 5.3% to 4.7%

*Service Inflation – is a component of core inflation (excludes energy and food services) and reflects the rate at which the prices of services are increasing or decreasing in an economy. It helps economists, financial experts, and policymakers understand the underlying persistent inflationary pressures in an economy. Energy and food prices are excluded and can be volatile and subject to short-term fluctuations but are included in headline inflation.

Officials from the BOE noted that inflation is expected to edge higher in the coming months peaking at 3.7% in September from 3.4% in April. Experts have noted that the September figure is higher than the BOE’s benchmark target figure of 2%, however officials suggest that this figure will slowly come down with Chairman Andrew Bailey confirming “rates are on a downward path”. Officials also confirmed that they expect the economy to grow by 0.25% in Q2 of this year and statistics released by the ONS (Office for National Statistics) showed food prices had risen by 4.4% in the year to May2025, and overall goods prices rose by 2.0% the most since November 2023.

Analysis issued by the BOE suggest that officials and policymakers are feeling less pessimistic regarding the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the UK and global economy, a change of opinion from their more pessimistic outlook last month. However, they continue to stress whilst their outlook has changed, uncertainty over trade could still negatively impact the UK economy. The MPC whilst still trying to balance a cooling economy against elevated inflation is finding their work is being complicated by the Israel/Iran conflict and the trade policies of President Donald Trump.

Are Banks Using the Phrase ‘Non-Inclusive’ as an Excuse to Debank Clients?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 11, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

What exactly do the words ‘Debank’ or ‘Debanking’ mean in today’s financial world? In simple terms a bank can close, without notice or recourse, an individual’s or company’s bank account because the bank may consider them to be a financial, regulatory, legal risk or a risk to their reputation. Usually, banks are required to give two months’ notice but in the cases of money laundering, associations with terrorism, illegal arms trading and drugs, accounts can be frozen then closed straight away. However, the big concern is when banks debank clients who are innocent but come under the ‘not inclusive’ banner.

What is the meaning of not inclusive or non-inclusive? These terms have become highly politicised over the years, but essentially, they mean to undermine the dignity and worth of the person or people targeted. They convey a message that the individual does not belong or is inferior, based on elements of their identity they cannot control such as ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, race and other characteristics. However, innocent individuals devoid of any financial crime as stated above are still being debanked, and to wake up one morning to find that all your banking facilities have been taken away must be stressful in the extreme and have a massive impact on mental health wellbeing.

At the end of March 2025, the EBA (European Banking Authority) said de-risking or debanking is a major problem for the EU consumer, with ‘Unwarranted’ de-risking the third most relevant issue, with fraud and indebtedness the two most important issues. They pointed out that debanking affects the most vulnerable consumers, such as migrants, refugees and the homeless, and this group is being debanked not only in Europe but in the United Kingdom, the United States and elsewhere in the world. But there is also a group who are not homeless or migrants, but honest businessmen and individuals who are being debanked because they do meet the inclusivity that banks stand for*.

*Nigel Farage – is a member of parliament in the United Kingdom and is a right-wing MP and leader of the reform party. In 2021, the NatWest Bank Group debanked Farage for allegedly falling below account thresholds at their wholly owned private banking and wealth management subsidiary Coutts & Co. It subsequently turned out that his politics did conform to the ideals held by the bank and its directors so Farage was debanked, but after a two-year court case NatWest settled out of court and therefore the political angle was never proved.

Analysts suggest that many high-net-worth individuals and companies are targeted for debanking because their businesses or political beliefs do not conform to the inclusivity standards set by the bank or financial institution. The word inclusivity is actually masking the fact that the bank does not like the individual or company concerned, yet despite the total innocence of these people and companies they get debanked. This has been prevalent in the United States where crypto e.g. Bitcoin et al had become a challenge to traditional banks. It was alleged that senior crypto figures and companies were unfairly debanked when the Biden administration put pressure on banks to start debanking this group.

Whilst nothing can be proved, many experts feel that there is a lot of debanking going on just because the client does not fit the political or moral parameters of banks and their directors. As long as no laws have been broken these financial institutions should not be closing these accounts and remember there is no recourse, just thank you and goodbye. In 2024 the United Kingdom saw circa 407,000 accounts closed with many more being closed across Europe and the United States. The impact of such actions can devastate families and lead to depression and mental anxiety.

IntaCapital Swiss SA Geneva has total inclusive values but we are perturbed about the injustices being handed out to banking clients who have never broken any laws but are allegedly thrown out onto the streets for having incompatible views with the banks and their directors. If you have been debanked and are of a high-net-worth, we will be pleased to hear from you and look forward to helping you regain access to banking facilities.

Swiss Regulators Forcing UBS to Increase Capital by USD 26 Billion

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 11, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

In an attempt to defray the risks of another Credit Suisse debacle, the government of Switzerland has proposed, much to UBS’s consternation and chagrin, that UBS increase their capital requirements by up to USD 26 Billion. The UBS management has already criticised this move by the FDF (Federal Department of Finance), but despite intensive public lobbying by the bank’s officials, the FDF wants UBS to fully capitalise its foreign subsidiaries. The UBS proposal by the FDF forms only part of the department’s on-going and wide-ranging reforms to the financial sector of Switzerland.

In 2023, UBS, backed by a state sponsored rescue, took over its biggest Swiss competitor Credit Suisse, and part of that rescue now requires UBS to match 60% of the capital at their overseas/ international subsidiaries with capital at their head office or parent bank. The reasoning behind this move by the FDF, is to avoid the likelihood of another state sponsored rescue, this time, of their largest bank, which means UBS has to increase its common equity tier 1 capital by USD 26 Billion. The FTF has also said that UBS can reduce its AT1 bond* holdings by USD 8 Billion leaving a net increase in Tier 1 capital of USD 18 Billion.

*AT1 Bond Holdings – refers to the investments an individual or institution holds in Additional Tier 1 Bonds also known as contingent convertible bonds or CoCos**. AT1 bonds are a type of bank capital designed to absorb losses during a bank’s financial distress, making them a higher risk, higher yield, compared to a bank’s traditional bond.

**CoCo Bonds – are hybrid debt instruments (combines characteristics of both debt and equity) that are automatically converted into equity or written down when a pre-specified trigger point is reached which is typically a fall in a bank’s capital ratio. This mechanism helps banks recapitalise without needing to seek external equity under stressful conditions, reducing the likelihood of a taxpayer funded or government bailout.

The financial proposals by the FDF will be put out for consultation and should become law at the earliest by 2028 and UBS will be given between six to eight years to put the changes into practice. However, the government and the FTF have been locked in an open feud with UBS since April 2024, when the government first muted these changes. UBS will now have ample opportunity to lobby lawmakers and ask them to water down the current changes. One lawmaker from the Upper House said, “The real lobbying starts now and we are preparing for negotiations to last for years”.

The FDF has already added that alongside the capital reforms, it is proposing a targeted strengthening of the capital base at UBS, which will include the treatment of assets that are not sufficiently recoverable in times of crisis such as deferred tax assets. The FDF said that “regulatory treatment of such assets need to be tightened” and will result in UBS being required to add additional capital over and above of what is already required. In a note to employees seen by a major news outlet, UBS chairman said to the staff “We are disappointed by today’s announcement … we will stand our ground”.

The Debanking Crisis and How to Rebuild Financial Confidence

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 5, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

A new financial phenomenon has in recent years swept through the financial world and it is known as “DEBANKING”. Debanking occurs when a bank, at any time and in any place, closes a corporate, personal, or private account – or refuses to open one – without warning or providing any plausible or straightforward reason. Banking clients may have been with their bank for a short period of time or may have been with them for years, but the client can wake up one morning to find they have no banking facilities.

This means no cash or debit card, no visa card, any banking facilities will have been cancelled, they have been financially frozen out of the system, and there is nothing clients can do about it; there is no recourse. What many citizens and corporates across the globe don’t know is that debanking is not just an internal compliance issue when fraud, money laundering, terrorist funding or other criminal or illicit activity is discovered. Indeed, the innocent, law-abiding (never even has a parking ticket) individuals or entities can be kicked out without any due process; there is no appeal.

A question many in the financial industry have been asked is “When did debanking start”? The answers are somewhat fuzzy, but in essence the concept of debanking, particularly in a political or disruptive motivated context, never really had a fixed beginning date. It is a theme or phenomenon that has occurred throughout history evolving over time but has gained much traction and press awareness in recent years. Indeed, a high-profile debanking event took place in the United Kingdom when in 2021 NatWest Bank debanked a senior British political figure, Mr Nigel Farage MP* leader of the Reform Party.

*Nigel Farage – Nearly two years after NatWest Group closed his accounts at their wholly owned private wealth subsidiary Coutts & Co, the then CEO Dame Alison Rose resigned. Although the bank said the account was closed due to Mr Farage accounts falling below the required thresholds, Mr Farage obtained a document stating that the bank were at odds with his political views. The case was settled privately where the bank paid Mr Farage an out of court settlement, but political motivation in the case was never proved.

The Farage case highlighted the problems innocent individuals and entities face in today’s banking world. In the United Kingdom alone, in 2024 circa 408,000 were closed without appeal as opposed to 45,000 in 2016 – 2017. The same is happening in the United States, Europe and elsewhere in the world. The main focus on account closures by banks are se workers, (legal in the UK), migrants, refugees, those with poor financial histories, the homeless, PEP’s (Politically Exposed Persons), small business and those with links to crypto, (especially prevalent int the United States in recent years).

To this end, IntaCapital Swiss SA Geneva, will be pleased to hear from any high-net-worth individuals who have suffered the ignominy of having their banking facilities removed without any reasons given, with absolutely no chance of appeal or access to a recourse process.

Trump’s Tariffs Hobble U.S. Markets Whilst European Stocks Forge Ahead

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 4, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The week ending 30th May 2025 saw equities in Europe as a clear winner globally, whilst tariffs and trade wars initiated by President Trump have hampered and shackled the markets in the United States. Recent data released showed that out of the world’s ten best performing stock markets, eight can be found in Europe. Indeed, this year in US Dollar terms Germany’s DAX Index* has rallied in excess of 30% including such peripheral markets as Hungary. Poland, Greece, and Slovenia.

*The DAX Index – The DAX or its full name Deutsche Aktien index 40, is Germany’s benchmark stock market index, and reflects the performance of 40 of the largest and most liquid German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It is a key indicator of the health of the German economy.

The European STOXX 600 Index* is currently beating the U.S. S&P 500 by 18% (reflected in dollar terms) which as data shows is a record, which experts advise is being powered by a stronger Euro and Germany’s strong fiscal spending plan both current and in the past. Market analysts with knowledge of this arena suggest there is more to come due to attractive valuations and resilient corporate earnings, which when compared to America’s which is being gripped by fiscal and trade debt, make Europe a safer bet.

*European STOXX 600 Index – This index is a broad measure of the European Equity Market. Based in Zug, Switzerland, it has a fixed number of components and provides extensive and diversified coverage across 17 countries and 11 industries within Europe’s developed economies, representing circa 90% of the underlying investible market.

Equity bull experts suggest that Europe is back on the investment map, with some investment managers saying that recently there has been more European interest from investors than there has been in the last decade. Bulls went on to say that this rally may well be self-feeding and if European stocks continue to rise, they will be likely to attract fresh investment from the rest of the world. Indeed, some analysts suggest that if the trend away from America continues over the next five years the European markets could expect an inflow of circa USD 1.4 Trillion (Euros 1.4 Trillion.) Analysts suggest the gains so far this year were the result of a proposal by the German government to spend hundreds of billions of Euros on defence and infrastructure with some economists suggesting that this will boost growth across the European bloc from Q2 2026.

Elsewhere, a slew of Europe’s peripheral markets have had performances that have made investors sit up. For example, Slovenia’s SBI TOP Index is, according to data released, the second-best performing stock market up 42% (in dollar terms) just behind Ghana’s benchmark the Ghana Stock Exchange GSE-CI, (tracks all the performance of all company’s trade on the Ghana Stock Exchange). Other peripheral stock exchanges that have done well are Poland’s WIG20) Index up 40% whilst the benchmarks in both Hungary and Greece are both up circa 34%.

Experts suggest that 2025 could be a good year for European Stock Markets as some professionals are already betting that European stocks will outperform their counterparts in America. President Trump’s tariffs, the loss of the country’s AAA status, looming trade wars, and the current fiscal deficit of USD 1.9 Trillion (and predicted to climb), are all factors as to why investors are turning their backs on the US markets. Whether this will last, we will have to wait and see if all of Donald Trump’s predictions come true. Meanwhile back in Europe data released show that corporate earnings are in the spotlight having risen 5.3% in Q1 2025 against predictions of a 1.5% decline, another reason to perhaps bet on Europe.

Rebuilding Financial Confidence After Debanking

Written by Joesph Patterson on June 2, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Expert Banking Solutions for High-Net-Worth Individuals in the UK and Europe

When the System Says No, We Say “Let’s Begin Again”

In recent years, an unsettling trend has been sweeping across the United Kingdom and Europe: the systematic and often unexplained closure of personal and business bank accounts — a phenomenon now commonly referred to as “debanking.” For many individuals, this experience is not only financially disruptive but also emotionally traumatic. It threatens livelihoods, damages reputations, and isolates those affected from the basic infrastructure of modern life.

Our mission is simple: we assist high-net-worth individuals — those with portfolios exceeding €1 million — who have been debanked, and we provide them with bespoke pathways back into the financial system.

If you’ve found yourself suddenly cut off from traditional banking without warning, without explanation, and without recourse — you’re not alone. And more importantly, you’re not without options.

The Silent Crisis: Understanding Debanking

Debanking is no longer a rare event reserved for the marginal or suspicious. Increasingly, it affects successful entrepreneurs, digital asset holders, politically exposed persons, individuals with dual nationalities, or those engaged in entirely lawful but misunderstood industries such as blockchain, e-commerce, or offshore asset management.

Banks across the UK and Europe are under intense regulatory and reputational pressure. Their risk appetite has shrunk. Complex compliance frameworks now demand enhanced due diligence, and rather than engage, many institutions choose to terminate client relationships pre-emptively.

This creates a chilling effect — and for those affected, the consequences are immediate and harsh:

Frozen or inaccessible funds
Business disruption and contractual breaches
Damage to credit and reputation
Inability to meet payroll, pay mortgages, or conduct daily transactions
Personal humiliation and stress

Despite this, there is no legal requirement for a bank to provide a reason for closure. There is no ombudsman for swift reinstatement. And there is no public infrastructure offering a second chance. That’s where we step in.

Who We Serve

Our bespoke banking recovery and onboarding services are designed exclusively for individuals and families with asset portfolios exceeding €1 million. We serve clients who:

Have had personal or business accounts unexpectedly closed
Are facing reputational risk due to political or professional affiliations
Work in sectors perceived as “high-risk” by traditional banking institutions
Need to establish compliant banking relationships swiftly and discreetly
Require advisory support for restoring financial infrastructure

We are not a service for everyone. We do not assist with criminal or sanctioned clients. Our focus is entirely on reputable, solvent individuals who have found themselves swept into the net of overzealous compliance or misunderstood financial profiling.

What We Offer

1. Private Advisory & Risk Profiling Review

We begin every engagement with a discreet, no-obligation consultation. Our in-house compliance specialists and external legal advisers conduct a full review of your situation. We help identify the reason(s) behind your account closure, whether it was risk classification, transaction behaviour, or external flags.

You will receive a risk-adjusted banking profile audit and a clear road map for re-entry into the financial system.

2. Banking Relationship Rebuilding

Through our deep network of trusted financial institutions across Europe, Switzerland, the Middle East, and selected offshore jurisdictions, we are able to make discreet introductions to relationship managers at banks that remain open to onboarding new clients — particularly when referred via trusted intermediaries.

We only work with fully licensed and regulated institutions that meet EU and UK standards.

Whether you require a personal account, business account, escrow solutions, or multi-currency capability, we help restore access where others have failed.

3. Financial Identity Reconstruction

For those who have been debanked, the problem is not simply a lack of access — it is a lack of trustworthiness in the eyes of the system. We assist clients in re-establishing their financial footprint by:

Cleaning digital footprints and adverse media
Updating KYC and due diligence documentation
Advising on restructuring asset holdings to fit compliance expectations
Assisting with explanations for past financial behaviour (e.g. crypto transactions, international flows)

This makes you more bankable — again.

4. Ongoing Discretion & Monitoring

We do not believe in one-off fixes. We offer long-term relationship management and ongoing compliance advisory to help you avoid future disruptions. Our clients receive:

Proactive compliance updates
Pre-transaction screening for red-flag triggers
Dedicated point-of-contact for ongoing support
Annual reviews to ensure accounts remain in good standing

Our work doesn’t end when the account is open — it continues as long as you need us.

Why Choose Us?

1. We Understand What Others Don’t

Our team is composed of former bankers, legal professionals, and risk analysts. We understand how banks think. More importantly, we understand how high-net-worth individuals operate — and how to navigate the space between.

2. Our Network is Our Edge

You cannot “Google” your way to a private banking relationship. Our value lies in our curated, compliant, and active network of banking institutions that still say yes — under the right circumstances.

3. We Are Discreet and Selective

We only accept clients we believe we can help. Your privacy is paramount. We operate with the highest level of discretion, and we only engage on strict NDAs and confidentiality terms.

4. We Deliver Results

We are not theorists. We are doers. Our track record includes hundreds of successfully restored financial relationships — with satisfied clients in London, Zurich, Lisbon, Dubai, Monaco, and beyond.

Case Studies

Client A – UK Entrepreneur in E-Commerce

Client A had their personal and business accounts at a Tier 1 UK bank closed without explanation. Despite running a seven-figure online retail business and no legal issues, they were unable to open accounts elsewhere due to unexplained flags. We conducted a reputational audit, helped re-structure the business under a clean entity, and introduced the client to a digital-friendly bank in Luxembourg. Accounts were opened within 10 working days.

Client B – Dual National Politically Exposed Person (PEP)

This client’s accounts were closed due to their association with a political figure in Eastern Europe, despite having no direct political activity themselves. We successfully re-established banking via a private institution in the Middle East, accompanied by a legal letter of clearance.

Client C – Crypto Wealth Holder Debanked by Swiss Bank

Client C had over €4M in digital assets and was fully tax-compliant, but their bank refused to renew their account due to new internal policy changes regarding virtual assets. We facilitated onboarding with a Liechtenstein bank experienced in digital asset liquidity, while structuring part of the holdings into a managed trust.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can you guarantee an account will be opened?

No service can guarantee a successful outcome. However, we significantly improve your chances by preparing your profile professionally, matching you with the right institutions, and mitigating historical red flags.

Do you work with sanctioned individuals or criminal cases?

No. We do not engage in any activity that circumvents financial regulations or supports unlawful behaviour. We only assist clean clients facing unjustified exclusion.

Can you help with business as well as personal accounts?

Yes. We assist with both, including holding companies, family offices, and SPVs.

Do you work with digital asset holders?

Yes. We understand blockchain and crypto-related banking issues and offer compliant structuring options.

Can I remain anonymous?

All client engagements are private and protected by professional confidentiality agreements. We do not disclose client identities or case details.

Ready to Rebuild?

If you or someone you know has been debanked and is struggling to re-enter the financial system, we invite you to speak with us. We offer a private, intelligent, and strategic approach to restoring your banking access — and your peace of mind.

Contact Us

Rebuild. Reconnect. Reassure.
Because Financial Freedom Shouldn’t End With a Letter in the Post.

Will the UK’s Inflation Figures Strengthen the Bank of England’s Hawkish Bias?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on May 28, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The latest data released by the ONS (Office for National Statistics), shows the United Kingdom’s inflation rate, the CPI (Consumer Price Index), jumped to 3.5% from 2.6% in April of this year, driven mainly by increases in water, energy and other price increases. Service inflation was seen accelerating from 4.7% to 5.4% and is an area the Bank of England watches closely for signs of underlying price pressure, and Bank officials had expected this figure to be 5%. Elsewhere Core Inflation (does not include food and energy) climbed to 3.8% which is the highest it has been since April 2024. Earlier this month, the Bank of England’s MPC (Monetary Policy Meeting) voted on yet another rate cut where two members voted to hold rate cuts, and the above figures bear out their cautiousness.

The Bank of England’s target inflation figure is 2%, and the current rate of inflation is well above that target and furthermore, the Bank of England expected this figure to rise and peak at 3.7% in September of this year. Other data shows consumer prices rising by 1.2%, the biggest rise for 24 months. Consumers in April were hit with a number of increases such as volatile air fares (up 16.2% year on year), water bills, local authority taxes, train fares and an across-the-board basic cost increase, which added to a pretty damning April for the government. However, analysts have noted that the Easter holidays were probably responsible for the jump in airfares (biggest month-on-month jump for April on record) and expect this figure to diminish before the summer holidays begin.

Experts suggest the financial markets are in favour of an end of year interest rate of 4% for the first time since the end of March/early April. This sentiment translates into one more rate cut this year suggesting that the Bank of England’s MPC will slam the door shut on an interest rate cut at its next interest rate meeting on Thursday 19th June 2025, with traders cutting an August interest rate cut from 60% to 40%. Markets also remember comments from the Bank of England’s Chief economist, Hugh Pill, who voiced in a hawkish speech that he feared interest rates were not high enough to keep the lid on inflation, and analysts suggest that it would not take too much for the swing voters on the MPC to move into the hawk’s camp especially after what the Consumer Price Index had recently shown.

Indeed, Mr Pill voted against a rate cut of ¼ of 1% earlier in May where he also said, “In my view, that withdrawal of policy restrictions has been running a little too fast of late, given the progress achieved thus far with returning inflation to target on a lasting basis. I remain concerned about upside risks to the achievement of the inflation target”. We will wait on the MPC’s meeting in June but the likelihood according to experts is a rate hold, plus we will also wait and see if Donald Trump’s economic policies impact further the global economy with any fall-out influencing decisions taken by bank officials. Elsewhere in April, it has been revealed that government borrowing for the month was £10 Billion, with data confirming this figure to be a new record. All in all, not the best 30 days with newspapers dubbing the month as “Awful April”.

Moody’s Downgrades the United States’ Sovereign Credit Rating

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on May 21, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Friday May 16th, 2025, the credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the Unites States’ sovereign credit rating from Aaa (equivalent to AAA at Standard & Poor’s and Fitch) by one notch to Aa1 due to growing concerns over the nation’s USD 36 Trillion debt pile. Moody’s is the last of the three most important and recognisable rating agencies to downgrade the sovereign credit rating of the United States, with Fitch downgrading in 2023 and Standard and Poor’s downgrading in 2011. The United States has held a perfect credit rating from Moody’s since 1917, however the rating agency back in November when 2023 advised it might lower the U.S. credit rating when it changed its outlook from stable to negative.

The reaction from the White House was predictable, with spokesman Kush Desai saying, “If Moody’s had any credibility, they would not have stayed silent as the fiscal disaster of the past four years unfolded.” In another statement the White House advised that the administration was focused on fixing Biden’s mess. The White House communications director Steven Cheung also laid into Moody’s singling out their chief, Mark Zandi, who he said was a political opponent of President Trump, and is a Clinton donor and advisor to Obama. He went on to say, “nobody takes his analysis seriously and he has been proven wrong time and time again”.

Moody’s pointed out that in 2024, the government spending was higher than receipts by circa USD 1.8 Trillion, being the fifth year in a row where fiscal deficits have been above USD 1 Trillion. Debt interest has been growing year on year and eating into sizeable chunks of government revenue, with Moody’s pointing out that federal interest payments in 2021 absorbed 9% of revenue in 2021, 18% in 2024, and predict circa 30% by 2035. The GAO (Government Accountability Office), which is seen as an investigation arm of Congress has called the current situation unsustainable and went on to say that unless there is a change of policy debt held by the public will be double the size of the national economy by 2047.

After the announcement on Friday 16th, markets were unnerved on the following Monday morning, with stock markets recovering by the end of the day with experts confirming that markets had shrugged off the news, but some were advising that investors should be wary of complacency. However, some analysts advise the downgrade is a warning sign and may be the catalyst for profit taking after a huge run in the past month for equities. At the end of the day, United States Treasury Bonds are currently viewed by global investors as the safest investment in the world, and a downgrade by Moody’s is unlikely to stifle appetite for treasuries.

For most money managers and other global investors and market participants experts advise that the downgrade was probably seen coming for some time and lands in a market already wary of risks from tariffs and fiscal dysfunction. However, currently President Trump is pushing the Republican controlled Congress to pass a bill extending the 2017 tax cuts, a move some analysts predict will add many trillions to an already highly inflated government debt. However, hardline Republicans blocked the bill denuding deeper spending cuts. There was volatility in US Treasuries on Monday after the Moody’s announcement with 30-year treasuries breaking through the symbolic barrier of 5% (first time since October 2023) but slipped back to 4.937% by close of business. Experts suggest that the bond market had already priced in risk premium for government economic policy already in disarray, meaning Monday’s upward move in yields was just a knee-jerk reaction.

Despite the Recent Rebound, Will Investors in the Long-Term Continue to Dump Dollar Assets?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on May 14, 2025. Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Although recent losses in US stocks have almost been wiped out, market experts believe that institutions such as pension funds and institutional money managers could in the long-term cut back on their massive exposure to US Dollar investments. Some investment bankers close to the action of certain money managers with trillions of dollars in U.S. Dollar asset exposure have started to cut back on these positions, mainly due to the fall out on the tariff war, flip flopping on policy, and Donald Trump’s continued attacks on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

Expert analysts advise that logically Europe is the current destination for the flight of capital from the United States, due to growth in the European economy being led by German spending in the defence sector and mixture of relatively cheap equity markets. Recently released data shows that in March 2025, the largest cut in history to U.S. equity allocations* with the shift out of the economy of the United States and into Europe was the sharpest since 1999. Further data released showed that in April 2025, outflows from ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) domiciled in Europe that invest in U.S. debt and equities reached Euros 2.5 Billion, a level not reached since 2023.

*US equity allocation – refers to the portion of an investment portfolio dedicated to stocks of companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. It’s a key component of overall asset allocation, which involves distributing investments across different asset classes like stocks, bonds, and real estate.

Although there have been recent gains by the US Dollar, overall, it is down 7% in 2025, with some institutions reporting spot transactions where institutional investors have sold the US Dollar and bought Euros on a sustained basis. One highly qualified and senior macro strategist in Europe announced that “If European pension funds were to reduce their allocations to 2015 levels, that would be equivalent to selling Euros 300 Billion in U.S. denominated assets. Some European pension funds have already started to trim their U.S. holdings position with Danish pension funds in Q1 2025 selling U.S. equities for the first time since 2023 and in the quarter Finland’s Veritas Pension Insurance Co reduced their exposure to U.S. equities.

Investors, analysts, economists etc, all talk about the cyclical effects in the various financial and commodity markets. What goes up must come down and vice versa. Remember the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-9 where liquidity completely dried up, banks were not lending to each other, investment bank(s) going bankrupt, bail outs of some of the largest financial institutions? Several years later everything it seemed was back to normal with the longest run of low interest rates seen for decades.

The point is whilst the United States is seeing massive outflows of capital in a reversal of the long-term trend where inflows were the order of the day where capital was attracted liquidity, market performance and economic growth. Some analysts advise that the current trend will only go so far given the liquidity and depth of the U.S. stock market and the circa USD 30 Trillion US Government Bond/Treasury market. Analysts report that many investors are sitting on the side lines wary of betting against the economy of the United States and its prospects for long-term growth.

Tag: Banking