Tag: AI

Brushstrokes and Balance Sheets: How AI Is Repainting Art and Banking 

From the Renaissance studio to the modern trading floor, two seemingly distant worlds—art and banking—have always been connected by one invisible thread: the search for value. Whether it’s a painter layering pigments to capture light or a banker layering risk models to capture returns, both are engaged in acts of creation, interpretation, and persuasion. 

Now, artificial intelligence (AI) has arrived like a disruptive patron, commissioning both artists and bankers to work in new ways. The same algorithms that can conjure a Rembrandt-style portrait from a text prompt can also forecast market movements or detect financial fraud. And the parallels go far deeper than the surface. 

The Canvas and the Ledger: Shared Foundations 

An artist approaches a blank canvas much as a banker approaches an empty ledger: with a vision. 

  • In art, the blank space is filled with form, colour, and emotion. 
  • In banking, the empty page becomes a structured composition of numbers, risk assessments, and projected returns. 

Both require a deep understanding of patterns. Where the painter sees symmetry, contrast, and movement, the banker sees cashflows, volatility curves, and correlations. AI’s great leap is its ability to read these patterns at a scale and speed that neither the artist’s eye nor the banker’s intuition could match. 

Pigments and Portfolios: Building Value from Components 

In the studio, a painting is built layer by layer—each pigment, glaze, and stroke contributing to the final image. In banking, portfolios are assembled asset by asset—each bond, share, or commodity adding to the whole. 

AI is transforming both processes: 

  • In art, generative models mix visual “pigments” from vast training datasets, producing new images in seconds. 
  • In banking, AI blends financial “pigments” from global data streams, assembling portfolios that respond dynamically to changing conditions. 

In both cases, the craft lies not in laying down every layer by hand, but in directing the composition—knowing which elements to combine and in what proportion. 

The Curator and the Risk Manager: Gatekeepers of Quality 

Art galleries rely on curators to select, frame, and present works in a way that resonates. Banks rely on risk managers to select, structure, and present investment opportunities that align with a client’s goals. 

AI can assist both roles: 

The AI curator can scan millions of artworks to find emerging styles or undervalued pieces. 

  • The AI risk manager can analyse decades of market data to spot anomalies and opportunities before they’re visible to humans. 

But in both worlds, the danger is the same: without a human curator or risk manager applying judgment, AI may promote works (or investments) that look promising in the data but lack lasting value. 

Forgery and Fraud: The Dark Arts of Both Worlds 

In art, forgery undermines trust in the market. In banking, fraud does the same. Both rely on deception—passing off something false as genuine. 

AI is a double-edged sword here: 

  • It can create near-perfect forgeries of artistic styles, challenging the notion of authenticity. 
  • It can also produce synthetic financial documents or deepfake identities to bypass security. 

Yet the same technology can also protect both industries. AI can detect subtle inconsistencies in brushwork that reveal an art forgery, just as it can detect unusual transaction patterns that signal financial fraud. 

Auctions and IPOs: Moments of Market Truth 

An art auction is a public performance of value discovery. Bidders raise paddles in response to the perceived worth of a work. An initial public offering (IPO) plays out similarly—investors subscribe to shares at a price determined by demand and expectation. 

AI’s role in both is growing: 

  • In the auction world, algorithms predict hammer prices based on past sales, artist trajectory, and collector sentiment. 
  • In the IPO world, AI models assess market appetite, optimal pricing, and timing. 

In both cases, AI becomes the backstage analyst, advising on how to position an asset—whether that asset is a painting or a stock. 

Commissions and Structured Products: Tailored Creations 

Wealthy patrons once commissioned paintings to match their tastes and ambitions. Today’s high-net-worth individuals commission financial products—structured notes, bespoke funds, or AMCs—designed to fit their risk appetite. 

AI accelerates customisation in both: 

  • In art, an AI model can adapt its style instantly to a patron’s preference—more chiaroscuro here, a hint of Cubism there. 
  • In banking, AI can assemble a product mix tailored to the client’s income goals, tax situation, and ethical preferences. 

The patron’s role is the same: to articulate intent clearly enough for the creator—human or AI—to deliver the desired outcome. 

Restoration and Portfolio Rebalancing: Preserving Value Over Time 

Art restoration keeps old masterpieces vibrant, repairing damage while respecting the original vision. In finance, portfolio rebalancing preserves the health of an investment over time, correcting drift while respecting the original strategy. 

AI is bringing precision to both: 

  • In restoration, AI can analyse old pigments to match colours exactly or reconstruct missing details based on historical records. 
  • In finance, AI can detect micro-shifts in asset performance and rebalance automatically to maintain alignment with objectives. 

Both aim to maintain integrity—ensuring that what was once valuable remains so in the present.  

Emotional Impact vs. Financial Impact 

 While art seeks to move the heart and finance seeks to move the bottom line, both ultimately trade in trust and perception. A painting’s value is what someone believes it’s worth; a bond’s price is what the market believes it will return. AI changes how both perceptions are formed. 

  • In art, algorithms can simulate the emotional weight of colour, light, and composition, influencing what audiences respond to. 
  • In finance, algorithms simulate the likely outcomes of investments, influencing where capital flows. 

The parallel is clear: AI’s predictions become part of the reality they describe, shaping demand in both markets. 

The Artist and the Banker: Directors, Not Replacements 

One fear looms large: will AI replace the artist and the banker? The more fitting analogy is that AI moves them both from craftspeople to directors. 

  • The AI-assisted artist might spend less time perfecting brushwork and more time conceptualising themes and narratives. 
  • The AI-assisted banker might spend less time crunching numbers and more time interpreting insights and advising clients. 

In both cases, the human becomes the storyteller—the one who frames the work, whether that work is a painting that hangs in a gallery or a portfolio that lives in a private bank’s vault. 

A Shared AI Renaissance 

The Renaissance was not just a rebirth of art; it was also a financial revolution, with the rise of merchant banks funding the projects that defined the era. Today’s AI revolution could be another shared chapter.

Imagine: 

  • AI curates an investment portfolio composed partly of tokenised artworks, valuing them with the same predictive analytics it uses for equities. 
  • Art collectors use AI to generate, authenticate, and value works that are instantly tradable as financial instruments. 

The boundaries blur. A masterpiece can be both an aesthetic object and a yield-generating asset. A bond can be both a source of income and a cultural statement, linked to projects that create beauty as well as profit. 

Conclusion: Guarding the Frame 

Whether you’re painting on canvas or painting numbers onto a balance sheet, the challenge in the AI era is the same: to use the machine’s capabilities without letting it define the work entirely. 

Frames matter—in art, they focus the eye; in banking, they define the rules. AI can fill the frame with astonishing skill, but it takes human vision to decide what belongs inside it. 

The artist and the banker have more in common than they might think. Both are in the business of shaping perception, guiding value, and leaving a mark that endures. AI is simply the newest brush in their toolkit, capable of making every stroke sharper, faster, and more intricate—provided they still hold the brush. 

Dispersion Trades Come into their Own Amid Sell-off in Tech Stocks

On Monday 27th January 2025 global investors dumped tech stock as a new player from China called DeepSeek, emerged in the AI (artificial intelligence market) threatening the dominance of the United States as companies such as Nvidia had a record one day loss of circa USD593 Billion. Other major shares tumbled such as chipmaker Broadcom down 17.4%, Alphabet fell 4.2%, and Marvel Technology fell by 19.1% to mention but a few. The catalyst for this fall was DeepSeeks AI model named RI which by all accounts uses less data at a fraction of the cost compared to that of the competition.

Many hedge fund traders saw an opening for dispersion trades which buys options in single stocks and sells contracts on an index and as such this trade had its best day since 2020 as fears for A! spread through the market like wildfire. The dispersion trade therefore is a bet on an index remaining calmer than its individual stocks. Once the domain of the hedge funds, the dispersion trade is now offered by banks to their clients which they have packaged into easy to access swaps. The Cboe S&P 500 Dispersion index* enjoyed its biggest gain since 2022.

*Cboe S&P Dispersion Index – This index may provide an indication of the markets perception of the near-term diversification or equivalently, an indication of the markets perception of the near-term of idiosyncratic risk in the S&P 500’s constituents. In simple terms dispersion refers to the range or spread of individual stock returns around the index’s average return.

Essentially dispersion trading is a form of arbitrage, specifically volatility arbitrage which as mentioned above is betting on the volatility of individual stocks against a more placid index where the stocks are quoted. A simple explanation of arbitrage is the selling and buying of the same stock, currency, or commodity at the same time in two different markets but where there is a small price differential. The profit between buying at the lower price in one market and selling at the higher price in another market is known as arbitrage trading.

Elsewhere, the sell off in tech stocks benefited a number of quant trades where the trading model is going long on some stocks and short on others. This is a strategy that buys steady stocks and sells the opposite (in this case tech stocks) which according to analysts jumped the most since 2020. Again, when the two positions are traded out the profit (or loss) is the arbitrage from the two trades.

Trump, Tariffs, BRICS, and Artificial Intelligence

In his latest pronouncements on tariffs, President Trump announced that he would enact cross-border tariffs higher than 2.5%, a figure apparently propounded by the incoming Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. The President told reporters aboard Air Force One that “I have in mind what it’s going to be, but I won’t be setting it yet, but it’ll be enough to protect our country”. This is yet another signal from the President that he is prepared to reshape supply chains through the introduction of tariffs in order to put “America First”.

President Trump went to tell reporters that he would be using tariffs to target specific sectors such as aluminium, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and steel. He also advised that he may well target Mexico and Canada with tariffs on their automobile exports to the United States, the same countries that he has already targeted with tariffs of 25% on all exports to the USA (to be imposed on 1st February 2025). President Trump’s underlying belief is that tariffs on countries exporting to the United States will increase the number of jobs at home, bring factories back, and taxes on businesses and individuals will come down. 

Interestingly, the threat of tariffs on the semiconductor sector came shortly after the Chinese start-up on AI (artificial intelligence) DeepSeek* not only worried investors but erased billions from the market capitalisation of Nvidia Corp**. It appears the DeepSeek model can be as effective as other well-known AI models but at a fraction of the cost. This has translated into less data centres signing up to the likes of Nvidia, as DeepSeek can drive down the consumption of electricity, and they now challenge the assumption that the United States hold dominance in the AI market. 

*DeepSeek – Until very recently, DeepSeek was a little known Chinese start-up, but has sent shockwaves through the tech market having released an AI model named RI that can outperform leading developers from the United States such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and Google. Is reported that DeepSeek only had a USD 6 Million budget to produce RI, as opposed to the multibillion dollar budgets employed by their US counterparts.

**Nvidia – Is famous for accelerated computing to tackle challenges no-one else can and their work on AI and digital twins is transforming the world’s largest industries. Their work on AI using a GPU (graphics processing unit as opposed to a CPU – central processing unit) allows them to crunch massive amounts of data for AI much faster. When RI cast doubt on the supremacy on of US tech firms, Nvidia shed circa USD590 Billion in market value which was the biggest fall in US stock market history.

President Trump said of DeepSeek, “The release of DeepSeek should be a wake up call for our industries and that we need to be laser-focused on competing to win”. On Monday 27th January 2025, there was a major market fall-out regarding DeepSeek, with technology stocks in Europe and the United States falling by circa USD1 Trillion, with investors now questioning the spending plans of some of the biggest companies in the USA. 

On the tariffs front, experts are saying this economic tool will not just be used against those countries with just a trade surplus with the United States. Indeed, President Trump will use tariffs in other areas such as the recent spat with Colombia, where the country’s President Gustavo Petro barred and refused landing rights to two military flights from the United States carrying deported Colombians. President Trump threatened punitive tariffs of 25% on Colombian exports to the USA unless the Colombian acquiesced, and despite counter tariffs being threatened, President Petro agreed to accept migrants (including those arriving on military aircraft) without limitation, hindrance or delay. 

Elsewhere on the Trump/Tariff radar, Europe and the EU bloc has been threatened with tariffs regarding those countries with trade surpluses and those countries (just about all of them) which President Trump believes aren’t paying enough on defence. Also on the radar are the BRICS* nations, who Trump has promised to impose 100% tariffs on should they try and create a rival currency to the US Dollar. Leading politicians within the BRICS have already floated the idea of a rival currency. 

*BRICS  – is recognised as a group of emerging market countries and the acronym stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Originally the acronym was BRIC (as South Africa was not part of the founding members) and was coined in 2001 by a Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill. On January 1st, 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates joined BRICS, who also announced that their newest member is Saudi Arabia, but the United Kingdom has yet to put pen to paper so as yet have not officially joined

Over the last 24 years, BRICS has grown into what is effectively a world club comprising of ten member states, some of whom are major energy producers such as the United Aram Emirates, whilst others are recognised as the largest consumers amongst the emerging or developing economies. Many western commentators feel that BRICS, led by China, are an anti-western organisation and have ambitions to have their own currency moving away from global reliance on the US Dollar.

Many experts feel that President Trump will stay true to his word and invoke tariffs on many countries, including America’s allies. He is especially adamant about those countries he feels will do the United States harm and he has named Brazil, India, and China in that bracket. How far the President will go with tariffs we will have to wait and see, but with China upending the Artificial Intelligence sector, it looks like certain countries are in for a bumpy ride.