Inflation and the United Kingdom

Written by Daniel Terry on . Posted in Industry, News & Reports.

As recently as last week, core inflation (excludes energy and food prices) in both the Eurozone and the United States was easing slightly, whilst in the United Kingdom inflation remained 8.7%, but core inflation increased to 7.1%, the highest since 1992. So why is it when the United States and the Eurozone get a drop off in core inflation, Great Britain suffers an increase?

Without a doubt all Remainers blame Brexit for the inflation problems with the ex-governor of the Bank of England, Canadian Mark Carney, being their standard-bearer. The fall in the pound after Brexit is usually trumpeted as a reason for inflation, but that was seven years ago, and since then, sterling, apart from the odd blip (the Liz Truss regime stands out), has remained relatively steady and in 2023 has gained in strength.

Other reasons from the Remainers camp is trade with Europe is now more expensive and difficult with the end result being costlier imports. The lack of access to labour and skilled workers from Europe is yet another reason put forward by Remainers, but with immigration actually having increased this argument is redundant. However, it cannot be denied that leaving Europe has contributed to the weakness in business investment, but is that a contributing factor to an increase in inflation? Probably not.

The Bank of England has received many derogatory comments regarding the increase in core inflation, and it is argued that their attitude towards inflation was lethargic, and they are therefore responsible for the problems that beset the nation today. Blaming the Bank of England is the easy way out, and they have acted in concert with many other central banks throughout the world. In fact, they were the first to raise interest rates.

Experts suggest that there are a number of influential factors responsible for the increase in core inflation and these can be seen in;

  1. Pay Inflation – The United States is running at 4.3% and the Eurozone is running at 5.2%, whilst in the United Kingdom it is running at 7.2%, helped along by increasing the National Living Wage in 2022 by 6.5% and by 9.7% a year later.
  1. Supply Performance – The United Kingdom is suffering from a poor supply performance, and as opposed to other G7 countries their GDP is still well below pre-Covid-19 levels.
  1. Workforce – There has been a massive fall-off in the workforce, with Covid being the major instigator of this scenario, but Covid was a global shock that has left its mark and can take some responsibility for where the United Kingdom (and many other countries) are today.

The United Kingdom is not alone in fighting inflation, and according to experts, the root cause of the massive increase in global inflation is found in a series of supply shocks, resulting in higher prices and the probability of a wage – price spiral. Central Banks would have to use monetary policy to fight this spiral, with the end result of bringing down inflation and hopefully wages. 

Sadly, the United Kingdom was hit particularly badly as the supply situation was much more severe than many other countries, and this is the real criticism of the Bank of England, as they did not act quick enough to keep the lid on the wage – price spiral.

There is only one monetary supply policy available to the Bank of England, and if increasing interest rates is the only way to fight inflation, the United Kingdom may well fall into recession. It will be painful, but we can only hope the current policy will bring down inflation at a faster rate than is currently predicted.

European Equity Investors Go Small

Written by Daniel Terry on . Posted in Industry, News & Reports.

Despite the fact the economic outlook looks gloomy across the European Union, the low valuations of European small and mid-cap stocks have caught the eye of many an investor, as their relatively low valuation has ignited long-term interest. Whilst recent banking upheaval promoted thoughts of a credit crunch, and recent anxieties regarding an economic slowdown favoured “defensives over cyclicals” *, the smaller European companies have seen valuations sink.

*Defensive stocks are those companies that are recognised to have defensive earnings, that do not really equate to the economic cycle. Such companies usually supply necessities that consumers will not cut back in times of a downturn in the economy. These necessities are typically power, such as electricity and gas, healthcare and certain foodstuffs. 

 *Cyclical stocks are those companies that are recognised as being more exposed to the economic cycle. Thus, when economic conditions are on a downward cycle, these companies are likely to see a drop off in earnings, but if economic conditions are on an upward cycle, then conversely earnings will increase. Such companies are recognised as being in the travel, construction and luxury goods sector.

Many European focused investors suggest that while the current economic slowdown persists, the current price of SMIDs (Small-Mid Capitalisation), have already had much of the risk factored into their price. The thinking therefore is that should Europe enter into a prolonged recession, SMIDs will have less downside than the larger companies or stocks.

In the AI (Artificial Intelligence) sector, breakthroughs in generative AI (algorithms that can be used to create new content such as images, text, simulations, video and audio), have in recent months kept investors focused on mega-stocks. However, from an AI angle those SMIDs that have available resources to invest in AI will hold an advantage over those who lack the same resources.

Expert analysts suspect that European economic data will get worse over the next three months especially as data recently released shows the EuroZone suffering from a technical recession, where there has been negative growth in real GDP in two consecutive quarters. When the data shows an economic upswing across the EuroZone, the revival of small caps will begin, and the same analysts suggest that this will provide a rich hunting ground for those long-term focused investors.

Interest Rate Hike of 0.5% by the Bank of England 

Written by Daniel Terry on . Posted in Industry, News & Reports.

On Thursday 22nd June 2023, defying market predictions, the Bank of England put up interest rates by a full half percentage point, to 5%, the highest level since 2008. Both the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt backed the Bank of England to the hilt, confirming Andrew Bailey’s (Governor of the BOE) uncompromising attack on inflation. 

Apparently recent data showed that there were stronger inflationary pressures on the UK economy, thus the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted seven to two to increase interest rates by 0.5%. The Bank of England is committed to their policy of reducing interest rates to 2% by raising interest rates 13 times since December 2021.

The Bank of England’s expectation that inflation would fall in May failed to materialise with inflation staying at 8.7% well beyond and above the intended target of 2%. Many experts and analysts are suggesting that the rate rises are doing more harm than good and figures confirm that inflation in the UK is the highest of any G7 country.

Such interest rate increases have pushed lenders to reprice their “Fixed Rate” mortgage deals pushing up prices whilst at the same time putting increased pressure on homeowners, which may result in a swathe of repossessions. The Chancellor, having already announced there will be no help for homeowners, did a u-turn on Friday and announced an agreement with lenders where homeowners struggling with repayments would be given a 12 month grace period before any repossessions take place. This agreement encompasses mortgage holders extending their current agreement or moving to an interest only plan.

Due to interest rate increases, the circa two million mortgage holders on tracker rates have seen their monthly outgoings rise every six weeks since December 2021. UK data shows that there are six million households tied to fixed rate mortgages with 800,000 due at the end of the year 2023. We can only hope the Government’s and the Bank of England’s monetary policies can finally start to eat away at inflation avoiding a mortgage time bomb at the end of 2024.

inflation inflation

Inflation – a Problem or an Opportunity for Business?

Written by admin on . Posted in featured post, News & Reports.

Banks were faced with the prospect of deflation and falling prices in 2015, which can prove problematic for consumer-facing businesses. Deflation can encourage consumers to delay purchases, in the expectation that prices will fall. This can negatively impact or serve implications for the value of firms’ stock holdings – they run the risk of holding inventories that are going down in monetary value.

However, modest inflation can encourage buyers to buy now, rather than delay and mask price changes for a brand. If inflationary pressures force all brands/companies to adjust prices, a price adjustment may go unnoticed. These are considered attractive to consumer good companies.

In contrast, a spike in price inflation is a serious concern to businesses – planning and investment decisions become harder, and it may be associated with recessionary tendencies in an economy, leading to reduced consumer spending. Some firms may hold onto their stocks for longer in anticipation that they will achieve higher prices tomorrow.

Handling Inflation

To an extent businesses can shield their customers from the effects of cost-based inflation, however, this does vary and depends on the size and branding of the company.

  • Larger companies may have resources to smooth out prices and hedge the costs of key inputs.
  • Smaller companies without a financial buffer may struggle to smooth out pricing, especially if their main input cost is scarce. For example, construction firms that rely on labour – inflationary pay increases can’t be stockpiled by the business in advance.
  • Strong brands aim to maintain a constant base price for key products. This enables brands to position themselves in comparison to their competitors – if the product price varies, consumers may receive mixed messages about the brand, especially when the price indicates quality level.

Consumer good companies can use several methods to manipulate prices without changing the “list price”.

  • The regularity of special offers and discounts is reduced.
  • Suspension of formulation and/or sizes that are less profitable.
  • Reduction of supply to channels which achieve lower margins.
  • “Shrinkflation” – some consumer good companies reduce pack sizes, rather than raise prices.

How can IntaCapital Swiss assist businesses?

At IntaCapital Swiss, we offer financial services that facilitate funding for businesses and projects across the world, including the United Kingdom. We have a range of facilities available for those seeking loan values between £2m – £100m.

With our expert team of financiers, we can offer new projects and businesses immediate working capital across a wide variety of industries, subject to an adequate business plan and passing our due diligence.

To apply, complete our online application form – one of our Client Relationship Managers will review and get in touch to discuss your application. To find out more about IntaCapital Swiss SA facilities, please see here.

How is the Government preparing to help UK businesses?

Written by admin on . Posted in featured post, News & Reports.

Emergency support measures introduced by the UK government during the Covid 19 pandemic are being replaced by a £3bn-a-year loan guarantee scheme, backed by UK ministers. This new scheme will come with tighter conditions for those borrowing, unlike the easily accessible finances available during Covid – which resulted in billions of pounds lost in fraud. Businesses under the scheme will be expected to offer personal guarantees for loans administrated by the banks – meaning UK businesses will be liable for defaults on repayments ahead of triggering the government guarantee.

The Policy

Under current proposals, the guarantee is likely to be set at 70% of the value of the loan and will run for at least two years. The policy builds from the existing recovery loan scheme; however, the new guarantee is unlikely to be up and running before the recovery loan programme ends in June. In contrast to the pandemic “bounce back loan” scheme, this new policy will set an annual cap of £3bn on the amount banks are able to lend through the scheme. In addition, the rates will be offered at market rates, as opposed to the fixed low-interest rates seen during the pandemic bounce-back scheme.

Lenders are expected to offer loan guarantees of up to £2m to businesses under the scheme. Normal conditions are encouraged by Treasury officials to restore the business banking market – despite fears among groups that large lenders are becoming less active in the sector.

How can IntaCapital Swiss assist UK businesses?

At IntaCapital Swiss, we offer financial services that facilitate funding for businesses and projects across the United Kingdom. We have a range of facilities available for those seeking loan values between £2m – £100m.

With our expert team of financiers, we can offer new projects and businesses immediate working capital across a wide variety of industries, subject to an adequate business plan and passing our due diligence.

To apply, complete our online application form – one of our Client Relationship Managers will review and get in touch to discuss your application. To find out more about IntaCapital Swiss SA facilities, please see here.

The top 4 risks to UK businesses in 2022

Written by admin on . Posted in featured post, News & Reports.

2021 was a year that changed the future of businesses, not only in the United Kingdom but on a global scale. From many retail businesses and hospitality venues closing to large corporate companies changing their business models to allow their employees to work from home.

With such a turbulent year for industries in 2021, what are the 4 top risks to UK businesses in 2022?

Business Interruption

Over the last 24 months, businesses have had to acclimatise to both Brexit and the Covid- 19 pandemic, impacts include advanced import and import costs, cashflow challenges, and supply-chain disruption. The epidemic saw numerous businesses forced to close their doors either temporarily or permanently, those in the retail and hospitality especially.

Cyber Crime

The Covid-19 pandemic saw a large-scale move to remote working which numerous businesses are still embracing 24 months on. Moving workers offsite introduces new access points for vulnerability, and the geographical spread of staff translates to thousands of routers and networks, amplifying exposure across a company’s IT ecosystem. Cybercriminals have exploited these vulnerabilities, plus the increased reliance on videotape conferencing apps, for marketable gain through conditioning similar to social engineering styles and phishing emails.

Climate Change

Climate change was the biggest challenge in 2021, being a prominent issue in the minds of numerous business leaders. The COP26 conference in Q4 2021 brought ‘loss and damage’- the expression used to describe the destruction being wrought by the climate extremity- under the limelight and this will probably remain high on the agenda at the COP27. Away from the egregious environmental impact, climate change can impact many companies’ business models and pose a wide disruption to organisations.

Legislation Changes

Brexit related legislation and regulation for businesses continue to evolve, from importing and exporting, to transporting goods to the EU, swapping data, and reclamation of people from outside the UK. Organisations have naturally also demanded to keep up with changing Covid-19-related regulations and measures and understand their liabilities in keeping workers safe.

How can IntaCapital Swiss assist UK businesses?

At IntaCapital Swiss, we facilitate funding for business and projects across the United Kingdom. With our expert team of financiers, we can offer new projects immediate working capital, subject to passing our due diligence, whether they fall under commercial, residential, infrastructure or leisure.

Find out more about how IntaCapital Swiss SA can facilitate multiple different facilities here.

What are some key funding facility terms and what do they mean?

Written by admin on . Posted in featured post, News & Reports.

Financial facility terminology can be complex and difficult to understand, which is why we have explained some of our main facilities in more simple terms below:

Collateral Transfer

Collateral Transfer is the transfer of assets from one party to another, which is frequently accomplished through the use of a Bank Guarantee. The Provider agrees to issue the Bank Guarantee to the beneficiary in exchange for a rental or return, known as a Contract Fee. Continue reading…

Bank Guarantee

A bank guarantee is a type of financial protection provided by a lending institution. The bank guarantee means that the lender will ensure that a debtor’s liabilities are met. In other words, if a debtor does not pay his or her debt, the bank will cover it. A bank guarantee allows the customer (or debtor) to purchase goods, purchase equipment, or obtain a loan. Continue reading…

Bank Guarantee Examples

  • A payment guarantee ensures a seller that the purchase price will be paid on a specific date.
  • An advance payment guarantee serves as collateral for reimbursing the buyer’s advance payment if the seller fails to supply the specified goods per the contract.
  • A credit security bond serves as collateral for loan repayment.
  • A rental guarantee serves as collateral for rent payments under a rental agreement.
  • A confirmed payment order is an irrevocable obligation in which the bank pays the beneficiary a predetermined amount on the client’s behalf on a specific date.
  • A performance bond serves as collateral for the buyer’s costs if services or goods are not delivered on time.

What is a Line of Credit?

A line of credit (LOC) is a predetermined borrowing limit that can be accessed at any time. If a borrower has an open line of credit, he or she can borrow money whenever necessary until the limit has been reached, as the money is repaid, it can be borrowed again.

LOCs are agreements between financial institutions — usually banks — and customers which stipulate the maximum amount of loans the customer can take out. If the borrower does not exceed the maximum amount (or credit limit) set in the agreement, they can access funds from the line of credit at any time. Continue reading…

What is a Raised Line of Credit?

Under the Collateral Transfer facility, bank guarantees can be used by the recipient to obtain lines of credit from a bank. Normally, a bank will not object to offering credit against a Bank Guarantee obtained in this way. An amount as high as 100% of the face value may be lent, less the advance on interest and bank fees. It is presumed, however, that lending rates range from 70-80% of face value. Continue reading…

How can IntaCapital Swiss SA assist?

At IntaCapital Swiss, we facilitate funding for many projects across the globe. With our expert team of financiers, we can offer new projects immediate working capital, subject to passing our due diligence, whether they fall under commercial, residential, infrastructure or leisure.

Find out more about how IntaCapital Swiss SA can facilitate multiple different facilities via our website: https://intacapitalswiss.com/news/construction/construction-funding-via-collateral-transfer/

The rising cost of building materials and how it’s affecting the Construction industry

Written by admin on . Posted in News & Reports.

Why are the costs of building materials increasing?

The fact that global construction demand has been increasing at an unprecedented rate, combined with the pandemic and logistical issues, has led to unprecedented shortages, delays, and higher construction costs across the board. The cost of materials on construction sites has reached an all-time high as a result of three major factors that contribute to the price hikes.

There are several factors that are challenging the supply chain and resulting in an inflationary situation, starting with strong demand and limited distribution. Among the factors responsible for the strong demand for our products is the fact that countries around the globe are investing in the construction of infrastructure as a way to revive their economies. In response to the pandemic, governments are repairing and rebuilding in order to respond better to the crisis. This increases the demand for construction materials.

Secondly, the producers of these building products have been experiencing reduced productivity due to health protocols and government regulations, which has caused work stoppages in the past and continues to happen today.

A shortage of shipping containers is also a problem. Construction materials may take weeks to arrive on a boat, even if they are produced on time. Because of Covid, ports around the world had to shut down for weeks, including some of the largest in the world. What is the explanation for this? The ports are unable to process the cargo at the current rate of arrival. Cargo rates have risen rapidly, notably between Asia and North America, due to a stockpile of cargo containers mixed with global demand.

The following are some of the key factors that have contributed to such significant increases in construction costs over the last year:

  • HGV driver shortage and longer than usual lead times
  • High demand for materials in other parts of the world
  • Panic buying and stockpiling of materials by builders and contractors
  • Reduced supply levels due to Covid restrictions and robust demand for new homes, construction, materials, and labour

What do the rising costs of building materials mean for the construction industry?

The rise in construction costs puts additional strain on contractors and developers, as well as lenders, during the construction phase. Contingency budgets have already been maxed out in the relatively early stages of some developments simply to cover the cost of increased materials and labour.

Rising costs are especially concerning for contractors who signed fixed-price contracts prior to major construction cost increases. They are in pain because they are unable to apply for additional payments under the terms of a fixed-price contract.

There have been examples of developers and contractors modifying their contracts and developers making additional payments to ensure that their contractor remains solvent and able to complete their development.

Ultimately, it would usually be more cost-effective to pay an existing contractor more than it would to let them become insolvent and then attempt to tender the remainder of a part-built development in the current market.

What alternative funding facilities are available for the construction industry?

Typically, companies will obtain bank loans for their projects, and sometimes funding from private equity (PE), Venture Capital (VC) and in some cases, sovereign wealth funds. However, with increasing restrictions and criteria to be met by banks, companies are seeking funding from elsewhere. Those who have strong business plans could benefit from our financial facility, Collateral Transfer. This facility makes use of Bank Guarantees which are utilised as collateral or security to obtain loans and lines of credit from banks and non-traditional lenders. However, construction companies wishing to benefit themselves from the Collateral Transfer Facility will have to produce a viable business plan with a strong exit strategy. 

How can IntaCapital Swiss SA assist the construction industry?

At IntaCapital Swiss, we facilitate funding for many construction projects across the globe – ranging from supporting the purchase of materials, equipment, land acquisition to general construction costs. With our expert team of financiers, we can offer new projects immediate working capital, subject to passing our due diligence, whether they fall under commercial, residential, infrastructure or leisure.

Find out more about how IntaCapital Swiss SA can facilitate multiple different facilities via our website: https://intacapitalswiss.com/news/construction/construction-funding-via-collateral-transfer/

Beware of the Crypto Con

Written by Jenny Bowler on . Posted in News & Reports.

Remember Bernie Madoff? The financier from Wall Street who perpetrated the biggest Ponzi Scheme ever… He managed to defraud investors of USD17.5 billion and if you throw in the fictional interest, the total rises to USD65 billion. But conning the public and institutions is not just the purview of fiat currencies. Indeed, cryptocurrencies are beginning to have their fair share of Ponzi Schemes. 

A huge selling point for cryptocurrencies is that they are (not all) decentralised, which means there is no oversight or third-party involvement. It is a peer-to-peer transaction. This leaves clients/investors open to Ponzi schemes unless proper due diligence takes place. 

One Coin 

A native of Bulgaria Ruja Ignatova launched One Coin Ltd in late 2014. By 2017 they had over 3 million investors and had raised USD15 billion. Basically, One Coin was multi-level marketing or pyramid selling. They created a company called One Life, which all investors joined. The company was sold as “one big family”, and even had their own hand signals. 

The concept encouraged investors to buy educational packages that taught financial freedom. This was highly popular as Ignatova promoted her company on the back of the 2008 financial meltdown, blaming banks and governments for the global debacle. Investors were encouraged to introduce other investors to purchase educational packages and of course be paid accordingly. 

The cost of these packages was anything from USD100 to USD150,000. The money spent on these packages would be exchanged for One Coins which were guaranteed to increase in value. To exchange one coin for currency, there was an in-house One Coin Exchange, which never actually worked. There was also no blockchain, which is a fundamental part of any cryptocurrency. The in-house market had daily selling limits based on the packages that had been invested in or bought.   

Many countries’ financial authorities issued warnings on One Coin. These warnings came much too late despite the many complaints and newspaper articles decrying One Coin. Ruga Ignatova disappeared in 2017 and has not been seen since. One Coin has been exposed as a Ponzi scheme and many investors have lost their money. 

BitConnect 

Once again, a crypto Ponzi scheme has been revealed to the world, defrauding investors to the tune of USD2 billion. Glen Arcaro, BitConnect’s director and main board director, admitted to earning USD 24 million from the scheme, and faces up to 20 years in jail.   

BitConnect arrived on the market in 2016. The underlying concept was to allow users/traders to lend the BitConnect Coin for a specific period of time in return for an interest payment. BitConnect’s offer was linked to their trading platform which utilised a controversial trading bot to lock in profits. The returns averaged 1% daily, (360% p.a.), which screamed high yield and Ponzi scheme. Following its collapse in January 2018 the SEC on Wednesday 1st September 2021 charged the owners/directors with defrauding their clients of USD2 billion. 

Conclusion 

It is understandable that cryptocurrency users enjoy the benefits of peer-to-peer trading and the joys of a decentralised currency. However, as seen from the above this market is open to abuse such as Ponzi schemes and money laundering. The cryptocurrency market will have to improve on their self-regulation or face the distinct possibility of government regulation on a global scale. Indeed, the chair of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), recently said, “cryptocurrencies issuing digital tokens need to be brought firmly within our reach”. 

In decade after decade, it has been proven that Ponzi schemes attract many investors through their own greed and ignorance of the market. When a return is offered at 1% per day, that’s 360% per annum, investors should be exceptionally wary. If a cryptocurrency is operating without a blockchain, that screams fraud.  

It is up to the individual to do their fact-check and due diligence. Do not be blinded by profits. Keep a sharp look-out for anything you feel is not quite right. If you see anything that makes you uncomfortable do not invest or take you money out. History is littered with financial corpses that have not done their due diligence or ignored simple warnings. 

What is a Line of Credit and how does it work?

Written by Jenny Bowler on . Posted in Credit Lines & Monetisation, News & Reports.

A line of credit is a specific type of loan from a bank or other lending institutions and is offered to companies and corporations. It is a loan facility that is not often made available to individuals. 

We have been asked on a number of occasions what is a “Transfer Line of Credit”? Many think that one company’s line of credit can be used by another company. This is a complete fallacy. Any loan offered by a bank is subject to due diligence on the borrower. A company can only get a line of credit on their own merit. It is NOT transferable.

As a point of interest, a line of credit differs from a standard or straight loan. A standard loan like a line of credit will have an expiry date. A standard loan will have set dates for partial repayment of principal and interest, up to and including the expiry date. The difference to a line of credit is explained in paragraph 2 below.

How does a Line of Credit work?

There are two types of lines of credit, secured and unsecured. Unsecured indicates that the borrower has not put up and security or collateral. Whereas secure lines of credit show the borrower has put up security or collateral to obtain a line of credit.

A Line of Credit will have an credit limit and an expiry date. There will be set dates for partial repayments of principal and interest. Unlike a standard loan the borrower at any time can keep borrowing up to the credit limit.

A company will have to apply to their bankers or lenders for a line of credit. The company in question will have had to have an account with their bank for a number of years. As mentioned above the bank will have to carry out strict due diligence procedures.

Sometimes a company will apply for a straight loan to cover a certain aspect of their business. They may have a shortfall in cash flow and need a loan to cover day to day expenses such as salaries.

However, a more complex loan application will cover different aspects of the business model.

This is where a line of credit can prove extremely useful. The company may need loans for upgrading their factory. They may need loans for letters of credit, as their business relies on imports. 

The company is therefore able to use a line of credit to borrow for all aspects of their business. Importantly, the lender can keep track of each borrowing. The lender can ensure that their loans are being utilised in the correct areas.

How easy is it to get a Line of Credit?

It is a known fact that banks have been cutting their loan books for a number of years. Companies applying for lines of credit are being declined en masse. Some banks have not increased their lending for 13 years. The lack of credit facilities is endemic throughout the world. Please see the following article, you will be stunned,

Do Not Despair

If you are a company who have had their Line of Credit applications rejected do not despair. Here in Geneva, we are fortunate to be one of Europe’s leading experts in Collateral Transfer. Collateral Transfer utilises Demand Bank Guarantees to obtain loans and lines of credit.

IntaCapital Swiss SA, Geneva has been Europe’s leader in the Collateral Transfer market for over a decade, and our highly popular Collateral Transfer Facility has made loans and lines of credit available to numerous companies. To find out more, enquire today.

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