The European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, for the seventh time since June 2024, the ECB (European Central Bank) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with the key deposit rate now standing at 2.25%, which according to data released by LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) was anticipated by 94% of financial markets. Experts suggest that the cut comes amidst global economic and geopolitical uncertainty giving fears to falling economic growth within the Eurozone economies. The decision to cut rates by a 1/4 of 1%, was according to the President of the ECB Christine Lagarde, unanimous, with no member arguing for any other type of cut.

In a statement, President Lagarde advised, “Downside risks to economic growth have increased, with a major escalation in global trade tensions and associated uncertainties, will likely lower euro-area growth by dampening exports, and it may drag down investment and consumption. Deteriorating financial market sentiment could lead to tighter financing conditions”. Earlier this month the ECB was, according to experts, ruminating as to whether or not to hold interest rates, but Donald Trump’s tariffs soon put a stop to that, ensuring a unanimous vote today to cut interest rates.

The policy move to cut interest rates also became more attractive as data revealed that the ECB’s benchmark target rate of inflation of 2% was on the road to being achieved, whilst at the same time falling inflation was given a boost by falling energy costs. However, experts are fearful that potential tariffs of 25% and an all-out Eurozone U.S.A. trade war will banish hopes of revival in the economies of the European Union membership countries. Currently experts are predicting another cut in interest rates at the next ECB meeting in June this year, where the rate will then be held at 2% for the rest of the year. However, ever increasing market volatility has left some analysts suggesting even further cuts in the cost of borrowing after the June announcement.

The ECB also announced that in future they will not be pre-committing to any particular rate path, indeed interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment on the inflation outlook in light of incoming financial and economic data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmissions. As far as the Euro is concerned, the common currency has this month strengthened as investor sentiment has proved less resilient to other economies and more resilient towards the Euro arena. Once again, all eyes are on President Trump and the EU trade negotiating team to see if they can come to an agreeable solution regarding tariffs.

Confidence in U.S. Government Bonds Can No Longer be Taken for Granted

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Amongst the financial carnage inflicted on the global markets by the introduction of punitive tariffs by President Donald Trump, global investors have been fleeing to safe haven assets, which for the first time in living memory does not include Treasuries or U.S. Government Bonds. Treasury bonds have had a tradition of being first in line for investors during adverse conditions which was true during the Global Financial Crisis, on 9/11, and even when the United States’ credit rating was cut, where Treasuries were seen to rally.

However, in today’s markets, and as Donald Trump has declared war on global trade, US Treasuries are now being questioned as the world’s best safe haven as can be seen in their surging yields*. Many experts and analysts agree that US Government Bonds and the US Dollar (which has in recent days plunged), rely on the world’s confidence in the financial and political systems of the United States in order to get their strength.

*Treasury Yields – Yields and Treasury prices have an inverse relationship as when Treasury prices rise yields fall and vice versa. Therefore when investors sell treasuries the yield rises and when they buy the yield falls.

The faith in the systems of the United States is now being tested as Thursday saw foreign investors en masse retreating for US assets with equities, treasuries, and the USD Dollar all falling together. The US Dollar fell against the Swiss Franc and the Euro by the most in 10 years, whilst 30-year Treasury yields headed north to 4.87% surging by 13 basis points. The point here is that when investors in the United States and from global markets sell off stocks, they usually find safety in U.S. Government bonds, so following the stock market route yields on treasuries rose, which is totally the opposite of trends in the near and distant past.

Economists have noted that the problems in the U.S. Government Bond market will have deep implications for the global financial system, because as Treasuries are (or were) regarded as “Risk Free Asset” they are utilised as a benchmark determining the price of stocks, mortgage rates, sovereign bonds, nearly everything including collateral for intra-day lending in the amount of trillions of US Dollars. US assets in general now appear to be being repriced as sentiment towards the U.S. as a safe haven diminishes.

There are however some dissenting voices who have concluded not everyone is losing faith in the United States’ political and financial systems. Indeed, some experts expound that long-end Treasury sell-offs are due to technical factors such as hedge funds unwinding leverage trades, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backing these views. There was even an auction of USD 22 Billion 30-year bonds on Thursday with investors, despite tariff driven volatility, showing solid demand as they did for the sale of 10-year bonds on Wednesday.

However, whatever views are held it is generally believed by experts that a message has been delivered to The White House that confidence in U.S. Government bonds can no longer be taken for granted. The lack of clarity in this administration’s policies together with their President antagonising allies and enemies alike, including their largest creditors, through his determination to rewrite the financial and trading global rules, will in the eyes of many see the rest of the world in the long run look elsewhere for safe haven assets.

China Retaliate with the Imposition of 125% Tariffs on all U.S. Imports

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

So the all-out trade war escalates between the United States and China as Beijing announces retaliatory tariffs of 125% (up from 84%) as Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on China are now effectively 145%. Officials in China confirmed that the 125% tariff will remain no matter if the White House decides to increase tariffs as the levies are now so high there is no longer a market for goods in China imported from the United States.

Chinese experts in this arena have advised that there is no sign from officials from either the United States or China that their respective governments would start negotiations which would avoid a negative impact on global supply chains. However, one official from China’s Commerce Ministry was quoted as saying, “Beijing is open to negotiate with the United States on an equal footing”.

Once again Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was on the offensive saying, “It’s unfortunate that the Chinese actually don’t want to come and negotiate, because they are the worst offenders in the international trading system”. He went on to say, “They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world, and I can tell you this escalation is a loser for them”.

Analysts suggest that due to the drag from U.S. trade tensions and slower global growth, China’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for this year will be 4%. They further advised that exports from China to the United States only accounted for circa 3% of GDP, however there is a possible negative impact on employment with circa 10–20 million Chinese workers involved with exports to America.

Elsewhere the previous U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Biden has unleashed nothing less than a massive broadside against President Trump and his economic policies, saying, “President Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the U.S. economy”. She commented that Trump and his officials have declared that they had inherited an economy in a “state of calamity and catastrophe”. However, Yellen noted the Economist back in October 2024 said the U.S. economy was the envy of the world.

As already advised previously on this website, U.S. tariffs may well drive other countries including those in the western world further into the arms of China. China is already Europe’s largest trading partner and at a meeting today between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Xi said that China and the EU (European Union) must join together in defending globalisation and oppose unilateral acts of bullying. Already the Spanish Agricultural Minister has said, “Spain will pursue closer trade ties with China in the interest of its citizens”.

As Democrats and some Republicans, along with leaders and officials of trading partners with the U.S,. a timely reminder is that the U.S. trading deficit with other countries amounted to USD 130.7 Billion in January 2025 and USD 122.7 Billion in February 2025, and many economists have voiced their wonder about how previous administrations and congress were so happy with this situation.

Obviously Donald Trump is not and has the bit between his teeth but perhaps there was a better way of rebalancing the deficit away from using tariffs. Only time will tell, but the U-turn on tariffs (10% across the board apart from China) giving a 90-day pause, is perhaps part of his intended policy (as confirmed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick) bringing trading counties to the negotiating table.

Trump 90-Day Suspension U-Turn on Tariffs Except China Sees Equities Rebound

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

In line with his election promises, President Trump has marched forward imposing global tariffs on all America’s trading partners, with some countries seeing a 10% tariff, others such as the EU (European Union) being hit with 25% tariffs, and Cambodia topping the list with a whopping 49%. Tariffs have now been returned to 10% across the board apart from China, where tariffs have been increased to 125%, as the announcement of the U-turn came 13 hours after the new tariffs came into effect. However, due to the unpredictability of the Trump2 administration, what happens in 90 days is anybody’s guess.

President Trump has suggested that the pause on tariffs is to give America’s trading partners (except China) time to reassess by making trade deals (or other deals) in order to avoid punitive tariffs. The White House has announced that they want their trading partners to reduce their own tariffs and remove barriers to trade* as such barriers have resulted in the U.S. deficit and should be eliminated. Both Canada and Mexico were not subject to these reciprocal tariffs as they were subject to a 25% tariff regarding illegal immigrants and drugs. However, imports covered by NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) are exempt.

*Barriers to Trade – These barriers are non-tariff and include:

Regulation – Any rules which dictate how a product can be manufactured, handled, or advertised.

Rules of origin – Rules which require proof of which country goods were produced in.

Quotas – Rules that limit the amount of a certain product that can be sold in a market.

Equities

Global markets saw an upward swing not seen for many decades thanks to the 90-day tariff pause, with stocks climbing across the globe. From an equities standpoint the market saw its best rally since 2008 with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rebounding 12%, the S&P 500 Index gaining 9.5%, and the Dow Jones jumping nearly 2,500 points. Europe saw Germany’s DAX rise 7%, Spain’s IBEX 35 up 7.2%, France’s CAC 40 up 6.4%, the pan continental STOXX 600 up 5.3% and the UK’s FTSE 100 up by 6.2%.

Elsewhere in the Far East and Asia, and in response to the 90-day moratorium on tariffs, Japan’s benchmark NIKKEY 225 led the way soaring upwards by 8.8% (gaining over 2,000 points), Hong Kong’s was up 2.69%, Thailand’s SET index surged 4.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.29% despite the increase in tariffs on China.

Interestingly, on President Trump’s social media, he announced a buy tip BEFORE announcing the pause on tariffs, making money for all those investors who took his advice. This has caused outrage and concern among ethics experts and opposition politicians who feel that such an announcement is tantamount to giving inside information and is a violation of securities laws.

However, a spokesperson from the White House fired back that the President has every right to reassure the markets, no doubt political opponents will not let this one go, especially as U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren said, “I am calling for an investigation into whether President Trump manipulated the market to benefit his wall street donors – all while working people and businesses paid the price”.

The US Government bond market (treasuries) has recently seen massive sell offs despite the fact that this market has always been seen as a safe haven in times of volatility and globally there have been massive falls in stock exchanges and bourses throughout the world. This suggests that after the announcement of the fresh wave of tariffs, the U.S. usually viewed as a cornerstone of the global economy has lost the confidence of many investors.

As the price of US government bonds fall, the yield or interest rate rises, which also means that the cost of financing the United States’ debt also rises, and on Wednesday, 10th April, the benchmark 10-year treasury moved to 4.516% and at one stage the 30-year bond hit 5%, being the highest since late 2023. The moves in the treasury markets had, apparently according to experts, caught the President’s eye and may have been one of the reasons he chose to pause tariffs.

China

Whilst the rest of the trading world with the United States enjoyed a 90-day pause on tariffs, President Trump hiked tariffs on China by a massive 125%, saying on a social media post, “based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China”. The decision by President Trump to escalate the tariff war on China came after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs of 84% on imports of all American goods, but Trump expects China to come to the negotiating table despite their hard line approach to tariffs.

Experts suggest that this is just not simple retaliation by President Trump but more like unfinished business from the Trump1 administration and he was quoted as saying with regards to China, “We didn’t have time to do the right thing”. Furthermore, when Trump was campaigning as an outsider for his first successful stint in the White House, one of his oft repeated themes was that China is responsible for hollowing out the American economy, driven rustbelt decline, and cost blue collar workers their livelihood and dignity.

Unless these two economic powerhouses back down, the the whole scenario will devolve into a full scale trade war hurting a bilateral trade worth circa USD 585 Billion, and this is the crux of the matter, of that USD 585 Billion America’s imports from China accounted for USD 440 Billion. Figures released by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) show the U.S.A. and China account for circa 43% of the global economy and if an all-out trade war ensued this would slow down growth in both countries, (experts suggest perhaps recession) and harm growth in other countries and slowing down global investment.

Conclusion

Sadly, there is at this time no real conclusion as there is so much uncertainty surrounding White House decision making, there is only a rolling commentary on on-going proceedings. President Trump announced a reason for the U-turn on tariffs is that people were getting yippy and nervous, but experts suggest it goes a lot deep than that with Scott Bessent (U.S. Treasury Secretary) asserting that the U-turn had been the plan all along to get the countries to the bargaining table. Now that the 90-day moratorium on tariffs has been announced, the world will hold their collective breath and wait to see how the United States v China tariff war plays out.

No one wins from an outright trade war between these two giants of the global economy, but Donald Trump has, according to experts, had it in for China since he first took over the oval office. It has also been reported that the EU and China are working together against Trump’s tariffs with Chinese Premier Quang (2nd in command in China) receiving a call from EU President Ursula von der Leyen. The White House is treading a fine line with tariffs, and they may yet push the EU and China even closer together (China is the EU’s largest trading partner) and this would totally upset the world order.

Tariffs Cause Global Market Chaos 

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On Monday, 7th April 2025, and from the opening bell in the far east, through Europe, and into the United States, chaos ensued across global markets. In the Asia Pacific arena, long before Europe and the United Kingdom had woken up, stock markets fell on a scale not seen in decades. In some Asian exchanges, due to mounting losses, trading was suspended as the Shanghai composite sank 7.34% and Japan’s Nikkei fell 7.83%. Hong Kong was the worst hit while equities in Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, and Singapore all suffered heavily, seeing steep declines.

In Hong Kong, the stock market plummeted 13.74% (its biggest single day decline in 30 years), before closing out at 13.22%. Experts suggest that the fall in Hong Kong’s stock market accurately reflects market expectations on how tariffs will affect the Chinese economy rather than any movement on China’s stock exchanges. They point out that Chinese stocks cannot be shorted, and it is impossible to trade freely.

In Europe, markets were also having a bad day as Donald Trump continued to wage his trade war. The pan-European STOXX 600* took a beating and was down 4.5% (down for the fourth straight session), whilst other major stock exchanges or bourses closed out down between 4% and 5%. In Germany, the benchmark DAX index** (.GDAXI) (trade sensitive) fell by as much as 6.4% finally closing at down 4.3% but painfully down 20% from its March 2025 closing all time high.

*STOXX 600 Index – This index tracks 600 of the largest stock exchange listed companies from 17 countries in Europe. The countries represented are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

**DAX Index – This index measures the performance of Germany’s 40 largest companies that trade on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and is considered by many analysts as a gauge of Germany’s economic health.

Again on Monday, 5th April, along with other global stock markets, UK stocks fell dramatically extending their selloff from the previous week. The FTSE 100 closed down 4.4%, hitting its weakest closing level for over 12 months and since Thursday, 3rd April, Blue Chips have fallen by 10%. In the meantime, Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has announced that the United Kingdom will seek to lower trade barriers with key trading partners around the world whilst fighting to secure a trade partnership with the United States.

In the United States, the news was just as bad with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling for a third day on the trot, with the S&P 500 losing in excess of 10% since Thursday, 3rd April. Equity markets are sending a massive NO to President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs and analysts suggest that hedge funds may well be forced to sell down their equities and other current risky assets in order to pay margin cash calls.

There seems to be no let up on tariffs as President Trump doubles down on China and announces that there are no plans to pause tariffs. Indeed, China imposed a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods on Friday, 4th April 2025, in response to the 34% tariff imposed by President Trump on all Chinese goods. However, in response to the Chinese actions, Trump announced he would retaliate with a further 50% tariff on all Chinese goods into the U.S. effective 9th April, unless China withdraws their tariff by 8th April. China is in no mood to take a backward step with Beijing vowing to fight to the end and China’s Commerce Ministry accused the U.S. of blackmail.

President Trump and his Trumpeteers have said that tariffs have stopped bleeding the U.S. of income and in four years we will be rich and self-sufficient whilst opponents cry you have wrecked global stock markets, sabotaged supply chains and ruined individuals’ pensions. The looming trade war with China will have, according to experts, massive fallouts across the globe. Who will blink first, China or America or will the world see a massive realignment of global trading?

Tariffs, Tariffs and More Tariffs as Donald Trump Risks Global Trade War

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Wednesday, 2nd April 2025 (or liberation day as per President Trump), is a day that will stand out in history, as Donald Trump announced a sweeping across the board 10% tariff on all imports of goods into the United States. He further announced reciprocal tariffs of 20% and rising on countries he feels has cheated America, by which he means those countries with massive trade surpluses with the U.S. and also those who already add big tariffs to American imports. President Trump had already separately announced a tariff of 25% on all global car, truck and auto accessories starting on 3rd May 2025, and a 25% tariff on all aluminium and steel products. Experts advise that these levies/tariffs/taxes are the biggest increases since 1968.

Global markets from tech to banking have been left reeling as President Trump through his tariffs attempts to rearrange global trading and the current economic order. However, thanks to tariffs, U.S. equities have taken a beating with the three major stock indexes plunging in excess of 5%, the biggest of which was the S&P 500, which crashed by almost 6%. This was the steepest fall since 2020, and elsewhere in the United Kingdom the FTSE 100 fell by just under 5%, marking its steepest fall since 2020, with similar falls being recorded in France and Germany. The global stock market has, since Trump announced an across the board tariff of 10% on every country, lost literally trillions of dollars in value, however China, the EU (European Union) and Vietnam are all facing higher tariffs on their exports to the U.S..

On Friday, 4th April 2025, China announced a 34% tariff on products from the U.S. whilst at the same time lowering exports of essential minerals plus adding a number of American companies to their blacklist and accusing Donald Trump of violating international trade rules. The EU announced through their trade commissioner that they are still looking for meaningful discussions in the hope of reducing their across the board 20% tariff, though he promised if talks failed the EU would defend themselves. The largest EU economy is Germany and with a separate tariff of 25% on the imports of cars into the U.S. and a 20% across the board tariff on all imports into the U.S., the German economy will, according to experts, take a hit in a drop in GDP of 1.5% equivalent to a loss of Euros 200 Billion over the tenure of President Trump.

The President of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, has vowed to retaliate and condemned President Trump and went on to say that tariffs will have dire consequences for all consumer and businesses on a global basis that have enjoyed trading with the U.S. since World War II and added, “We are already finalising a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel”. The EU is of course still open to negotiations, but Ursula von der Leyen is in no mood to lie down and be trodden on. She has already announced that the EU has everything it needs to survive and survive it will. Tough talk from a tough President who will meet Donald Trump head on, so unless negotiations are successful, a full-out trade war between the U.S. is certainly on the cards and could go global.

In the United States, many experts and analysts agree that the new tariffs will push the American economy into recession, an economy which is currently losing momentum, with the result of increasing prices due to tariffs being passed on to the consumer. Analysts further advised that the tariffs could well push the American economy into a recession and have a negative effect on inflation, reversing the current downward trend. Indeed, the US Dollar shortly after the tariff announcements fell by 1.7% against a basket of European trading partners’ currencies which according to market experts reflect concern regarding growth in the economy. Some experts have warned that core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) could go as high as 4% (3.1% as of end of February 2025), unemployment to rise (despite current hiring figures showing an increase) and real GDP to decline.

In the long run, experts suggest that Trump may get his financial rewards from tariffs but his “allies” who he has hit with punitive tariffs may well look elsewhere for new trading partners, with China being the ultimate beneficiary which may well benefit BRICS* as well. Indeed, BRICS is now a major political force looking to be a counterweight to western influence with its current members accounting for just over 25% of the global economy and almost half the world’s population. There has been a lot of internal division within the BRICS organisation, with Russia leading the way over their unlawful invasion of Ukraine, however tariffs may bring them together in such a way that the allies who Trump has hit with punitive tariffs may well look to increase trade with these countries. Whilst the America First slogan is banged consistently by the U.S. administration, some of the poorest nations in Africa have been hit with punitive tariffs, with Lesotho being a prime example at a massive 50% tariff. It is no secret that BRICS want what they call the southern nations to come under their umbrella (Africa and South America) and again these tariffs could drive these nations into the arms of BRICS. Geopolitically, tariffs may be the current U.S. administration’s biggest mistake.

*BRICS – is an intergovernmental organisation consisting of ten countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The founding countries were Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and China forming BRIC with South Africa joining at a later date to form BRICS. There are a slew of countries waiting approval of membership from BRICS including Saudi Arabia who have been approved but have delayed joining.

In the United Kingdom, experts advise tariffs will hit key manufacturing sectors and will undermine the positive growth, albeit fragile, predictions of the Labour government. Many businesses are already facing rising costs due to the Chancellors’ budget and tariffs will, according to some analysts, place negative pressure on demand and weaken supply chains. The Director of the British Chamber of Commerce was heard to say that “Orders will drop, prices will rise, and global economic demand will be weaker as a result”. Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, advised he is still hopeful that negotiations will reduce the 10% tariff, however he has begun the process of consultation with regard to retaliatory tariffs should negotiations fail. Across the Irish Sea, Northern Ireland ministers announced they feel trapped as despite the 10% tariff on the United Kingdom, if the EU announces retaliatory tariffs N. Ireland could face the higher EU tariff on any U.S. imports entering from Britain under the post-Brexit deal* between the United Kingdom and the EU.

*The Northern Ireland Protocol – is intended to protect the EU single market while avoiding the imposition of a “Harder Border” that might incite the recurrence of conflict and destabilise the relative peace that has held since the end of the troubles.

In Asia, the APAC* region was hit with tariffs between 10% and 49% with the higher rates being targeted at those countries’ lower value-added items such as textiles, garments, furniture, and footwear. Vietnam (apart from China) is currently enjoying the largest trade deficit with the U.S. (USD 123.5 Billion), got hit with 46% tariff, whilst Cambodia got hit with a 49% tariff (trade deficit USD 12.13 Billion) Sri Lanka saw a 44% tariff (trade deficit USD 2.65 Billion), Bangladesh was given a 37% tariff (trade deficit USD 2.6 Billion) with larger economies in the region slightly better off with Singapore being hit with the minimum of 10% tariffs. Experts suggest that Asian currencies may face depreciation pressure as financial markets could turn risk averse affecting FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) inflow.

*APAC – stands for Asia Pacific Region and is a broad geographical region encompassing countries and territories in or near the Western Pacific Ocean. This region typically includes East Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, and surrounding islands).

In typical Trump fashion, in one fell swoop global trading has been turned on its head, geopolitics may never be the same again and markets will remain volatile for some time to come. Experts suggest it may take weeks or in some cases months to assess the fall-out from President Trump’s tariffs. President Trump may well have destroyed smaller more vulnerable economies, destroying the lives of that country’s population at the same time. However, in breaking news the White House advises that 50 countries have contacted the administration looking to do trade deals and avoid duties. Meanwhile voices in the U.S. from the CEO down to the smallest consumer are already getting louder voicing their antipathy towards tariffs with anti-tariff rallies taking place in a number of cities throughout the world. He may think he is putting “America First” but who’s to say in the long run it may well be “America Second”.

Donald Trump is Ruining European Wineries

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Wine growers across the European continent have been struggling due to a decline in consumption from secular demand with consequences so awful that the French government has been paying growers to uproot their vines. Then along comes President Trump with his oft-repeated rhetoric “America First”, threatening tariffs of 200% on European wine, with the result that shipments of the product have completely stopped and owners of vineyards no longer know how to price their bottles.

European wineries are at a loss of exactly what to do, especially now as overseas clients orders are rapidly disappearing, with the result that many brands such as Chardonnay and Merlot will be cellar bound rather than sold. Indeed, in France’s biggest wine cooperative located in Cave Héraclès, there are in excess of 200 steel tanks which by experts’ calculations are as high as a six-storey building and are still full of 2024’s production. The region, as with the rest of Europe, can see the vines budding again, and the next harvest is not that far away.

Owners of these vats are being told to wait by buyers who already have enough wine on their books, and somehow the vats need to be empty by July at the very latest in order to accommodate this year’s produce. Now that President Trump has announced his punitive tariff, he has brought the whole industry to a complete stop. Producers of wine now are unable to commit to a price as they don’t know for sure exactly what the tariff will be. They therefore are unable to commit or offer any discounts as they have no idea what their ultimate costs will be. Furthermore, they could well incur extra costs to empty their vats to store elsewhere to accommodate the new produce.

Sadly for wine producers, there is currently a global glut of product and 2024 saw a slump in production mirroring a 60-year low. Demand for wine is falling at an accelerated rate, with today’s health conscious youngsters drinking less than baby boomers or millennials when they were the same age. A number of savvy brand owners fearing a Trump victory, shipped excess supplies to the United States before Trump won the election. Indeed, Sogrape owner of Mateus Rosé ensured their importer in America has at least six months’ supply, whilst the wine estate Château de Fieuzal also shipped many more bottles than previously planned to the United States.

The wine tariff on European Wines and champagne was announced by Trump as a retaliatory measure against the EU (European Union) for threatening tariffs on American whisky due to come into effect on 14th April 2025. In 2024, the United States accounted for 30% of all of Europe’s wine exports, and the European Commission (handles all trade matters for the EU) is currently working on a concession package to present to the Trump administration in the hope that partial tariffs can be removed. However, with the mood Donald Trump is in, the European wine growers can only hold out hope that the commission is successful.

Donald Trump Hits European and UK Carmakers with 25% Tariffs

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

On the evening of Wednesday, March 26th 2025 in Washington DC, and in a devastating blow to global car makers, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all car imports into the United States which translates into levies amounting to circa USD 100 Billion. The President was quoted as saying, “This is the beginning of liberation day in America, this is very modest. What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the United States”. He went on to say, “We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years”.

This move of course exacerbates the global trade war started by President Trump, taking the animosity towards him from his allies to new heights. The Shadow Trade Secretary to the House of Commons in the United Kingdom noted that he is concerned with this auto tariff, adding that the UK automotive sector is under pressure and British jobs are clearly at risk. The president of the EU (European Union), Ursula von der Leyen, said, “I deeply regret the US decision to impose tariffs on EU automotive exports”. The German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has called for the EU to provide a decisive response.

Experts in this arena suggest that due to the imposition of a 25% car tariff, the price of cars could rise between USD 5,000 and USD 15,000 depending on the vehicle, and even those automobiles assembled in the United States could rise between USD 3,000–USD 8,000. The rise in US assembled automobiles, according to analysts, is that roughly 50% of parts in US-produced cars are imported and tariffs on auto parts will significantly increase production costs. The United States imported circa 8 million cars in 2024 with a trade value of over USD 240 Billion, the country’s total automotive vehicle imports including engine and parts was over USD 474 Billion.

Certain media outlets in the United Kingdom are saying that the government in private is advising car manufacturers that they are confident of securing a bi-lateral trade deal with the U.S. administration and will hope to avoid President Trump’s car tariffs on the importation of vehicles into the United States. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has been quoted as saying “the Government is in intense negotiations with the U.S.”. Data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturing and Traders confirm that Europe is the biggest export market for UK made motor vehicles, with the United States firmly in second place enjoying circa 16.9% of UK car exports. Analysts suggest Jaguar Land Rover may be one of the hardest hit by tariffs, and Aston Martin saw its share price fall by 6% on the London Stock Exchange in response to Trump’s announcement.

In Europe, there is outrage over the car tariffs with the VDA (German Association of Automotive Industry) warning of a serious economic fallout. The association further added that the consequence of tariffs will cost prosperity and growth on both sides of the Atlantic. President of the VDA, Hildegard Müller, highlighted the fact that German firms employ circa 138,000 workers in the U.S.A., split 48,000 in manufacturing and 38,000 in parts supply. Various automotive bodies have urged officials in the European Union to get back round the table, with the Trump administration and thrash out a trade deal instead of talking about reciprocal tariffs.

Officials of the European Union who last week met with their U.S. counterparts see little chance of averting this current round of tariffs. There have been muted signs of the EU and Canada working together against the U.S., but President Trump threatened larger tariffs if the two countries joined forces. EU officials suggest that Trump will issue an EU bloc-wide tariff rather than a country by country tariff. Analysts advise that Volvo cars and Porsche stand to be the two hardest hit manufacturers should tariffs proceed on the 2nd of April 2025, whilst Thursday 27th March saw shares in Porsche plunge 5.4%, Mercedes-Benz AG fall 4,8%, Ferrari and BMW AG fell 4.7% and 3.7% respectively and Volkswagen AG fell circa 2%.

Amongst all the outrage and wringing of hands regarding this car tariff, President Donald Trump has gone on record as saying, “I couldn’t care less if automakers raise their prices” in a response to planned tariffs on imported vehicles. He went on to say, “I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars”. The new automobile tariffs come into effect on 2nd April 2025, whilst tariffs on parts are set to start in May 2025 or later.

New Lenders in the Crypto World for those Crypto Companies Seeking Debt

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The crypto lending arena was nearly wiped out during the last major bear market, but is staging a huge comeback, and Cantor Fitzgerald (Cantors)* is trying to satisfy the crypto industry’s hunger for debt. Such lenders range from crypto native firms* to traditional banks and have been putting in place, or are putting in place, the means of providing capital to a whole smorgasbord of crypto market activities.

*Cantor Fitzgerald – is an American financial services firm that was founded in 1945. It specialises in institutional equity, fixed-income sales, trading, and serving the middle market with investment banking services, prime brokerage, and commercial real-estate financing. On March 11th 2025, Cantors announced that Anchorage Digital and Copper.co (“Copper”) will serve as collateral managers and custodians for the firm’s Global Bitcoin Financing.

**Crypto Native Firms – founded with the sole purpose of investing in digital assets and providing investment products in a market previously underserved by traditional asset managers. Native crypto managers have, of course, experience with digital assets and operational nuances.

After the debacle of 2002 and 2003, quite a number of crypto lending companies went bankrupt due to some very dodgy loans, and whilst crypto lending had its heyday in 2021, volume today is still well-short of that mark. Through Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024 Bitcoin lending went up by circa 300%, and with speculation in Bitcoin that propelled it above USD 100,000, fervour is spilling over and continuing to fortify the crypto lending sector, and leading the way are the decentralised finance applications.

In March 2025, Cantors started its global Bitcoin financing with an initial capital of US Dollars 2 Million. Elsewhere crypto wealth manager Xapo Bank began offering loans of up to USD 1 Million backed by Bitcoin, and securing a multi-billion US Dollar investment in its crypto lending funds is Blockstream Corp. the Bitcoin software firm. Loans against Bitcoin have been increasing by the month, with investors in the coin looking to utilise this asset as collateral for other investments.

The crypto market has always been heavily reliant on lenders who have provided critical liquidity to trading and other areas over the years, especially in times of volatility. However, the more traditional banks have avoided this market and, due to the uncertainties that surround the regulatory arena, have not lent to market participants. This decision led to the explosion of crypto lenders during the bull market in 2021. Analysts and some industry participants say, since the election of Donald Trump, crypto lending is poised to grow exponentially due to support of regulations that are favourable to the sector.

Indeed, the sector is now seeing increased interest from traditional lenders as they are becoming more comfortable with the current Trump administration and their favourable leanings toward crypto regulation and legislation. Experts suggest that this will lead to loans backed by Bitcoin that will be supported by more sophisticated risk-management and larger balance sheets at the more traditional lending institutions. However, analysts suggest that

crypto lending has returned with a more conservative approach with LTV ratios (Loan To Value) being lower, which translates into lenders reducing their risks requesting borrowers to make larger down payments. Experts advise that crypto natives can reinvent a couple of centuries of lending risks, and if crypto lending is to properly take off, the arena will need experts from outside the crypto industry.

Trump Takes Aim at Chinese Ships with Docking Levies at U.S. Ports

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The new U.S. administration has suggested imposing multi-million U.S. Dollar levies on Chinese ships wishing to dock in ports in the United States. Experts in this arena say that this will disrupt global trade and suggest the fall-out could be more disruptive to global trade than tariffs. An immediate example of this fall-out can be located in Germany where port workers should be loading a first round 16,000 MT of steel piping, bound for a huge Louisiana energy project. However due to the proposed levies, the cargo is now sitting gathering dust in a German warehouse.

This is a nightmare scenario for exporters, importers, and ship owners alike – especially as on this particular Atlantic shipping route, 80% of these ships were all built in China. The owners of the ships are not necessarily Chinese, it is just the ships that were built in China, which are being targeted. In this instance, the shipment of 16,000 MT of steel pipes are looking at a potential levy/surcharge of USD 1–3 Million which means the overall transportation cost could increase by 200%–300%.

Current data from the USTR (Office of the US Trade Representative), reveals that China now produces in excess of 50% of the world’s cargo ships by tonnage, (5% in 1999), with Korea and Japan accounting for most of the remaining cargo ship building. In 2024, shipyards in this arena accounted for 0.01% of cargo ships built, thus experts have surmised that this levy madness on Chinese-built ships can only help the long-held aim of the USTR in reviving the US merchant shipbuilding industry, a sleeping giant if there ever was one.

On Monday, 24th March 2025, a hearing begins in Washington D.C. into the ramifications of this trade levy, with representatives from industries from all corners of the world. They will explain to the hearing that these proposals are more damaging than Trump tariffs because of the severe threat to supply chains and, as a result, would severely disrupt global trade, dwarfing the results of any trade tariffs. Furthermore, some carriers have announced that not only will the increase in costs be passed on, but will pull out of docking at smaller ports which, of course, will suffer from the downturn in business.

Analysts suggest that, in theory, these levies could generate between USD 40–52 Billion for the United States. However many U.S. companies are worried as there are escalating tariffs on Chinese goods, aluminium, and steel, plus there are reciprocal tariffs due on 2nd April 2025. However, analysts point to the obvious downside, where U.S. businesses (especially the farming industry) and ultimately the U.S. consumer will come under pressure, raising prices throughout the United States, and threatening jobs across the board.

However, the revival of the U.S. shipping industry is definitely in the sights of President Donald Trump and has now been cast as part of National Security as per the issue of the draft document “Make Shipbuilding Great Again”. Once again, it is felt that President Trump will put pressure on allies to do the same or they will face penalties as well. It is feared the allies are currently not happy being treated like second-rate citizens, so this outcome will be interesting to see. Everyone involved in the United States appears to agree that U.S. shipbuilders cannot compete on an even playing field due to unfair production and market practices by the Chinese.

However some major U.S. carriers have advised if the full implementation of this draft document is achieved, it could put them out of business. There is hope that some of the proposals will be watered down, but if not one veteran in the maritime transportation industry advised that these proposals will be like an “Apocalypse for the trade”. Furthermore, due to lack of domestic production, the “Louisiana Energy Gateway” project (slated to deliver the next generation of LNG – Liquid Natural Gas a Trump favourite), still needs 16,000 MT of steel piping.

Head office

IntaCapital Swiss SA,
Rue du Rhône 80 - 84,
CH - 1204 Genève,
Switzerland

Other facilities

Enquire

Legal

IntaCapital Switzerland | Copyright © 2025 | All Rights Reserved