Author: IntaCapital Swiss

The Federal Reserve Hikes Interest Rates

16th September 2026

Today, in defiance of President Donald Trump’s call for lower interest rates, and for the first time since 2023, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% – 4.00%. Experts and financial markets predicted the rate rise as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh tries to head-off increasing inflation due to the Middle East war between the United States and Iran. This has pushed the price of the Benchmark Brent crude oil higher and higher, where it currently sits trading at circa $105.45 p/bl (per barrel), having already pushed through $108 p/bl earlier in the day. 

After the rate increase announcement, officials of the FOMC advised that the rise “will support a timelier return” to the Federal Reserve’s inflation benchmark target of 2.00%. Whilst this target has not been reached for around 5 ½ years, the officials added “the committee will deliver price stability”, all of which was reiterated by Chairman Warsh at a press conference post FOMC meeting. The decision by the FOMC to raise rates was approved unanimously by twelve votes to zero, and the FOMC indicated that another rate rise was on the cards due to persistently high inflation – with indications suggesting the target figure of 2.00% will not be reached until 2029. 

After the meeting, Chairman Warsh acknowledged previous concerns regarding inflation commenting that too many categories of products and services were showing annualised price gains above 3.00% on a six and twelve-month basis. He went on to say that, “we removed a dose of accommodation so that financial and credit conditions would be more consistent with our ultimate objectives. This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved”. Data provided by the BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) revealed core inflation rose at a higher-than-expected rate in August. This was a major factor in the decision to raise interest rates, reflecting broader concerns that inflationary pressures are spreading beyond the Middle East war, surging energy prices, and the temporary effects of tariffs.

On the future of interest rates, projections released today by the Federal Reserve shows sixteen officials advancing the possibility of a further rate rise before close of business 31st December 2026, with the median projection for 2027 pointing to no additional rate increases for 2027. However, eight policymakers suggested no further increases in rates for this year, but projected a 0.25% increase in 2027 to a range of 4.00% – 4.25% by the end of year 2027. Interestingly, the rate rise was in defiance of Donald Trump’s wishes to have the lowest borrowing cost in the world, and it should be remembered that Chairman Warsh is the President’s pick, and when the previous Chairman Jerome Powell defied the President on interest rates, he suffered a series of highly personal attacks. 

Analysts advise that financial markets in a hawkish shift anticipate a further 25 basis point increase in interest rates before the end of the current year and have priced in a 57.40% probability. The surge in bet rate hikes across money markets is being fueled by what experts describe as a mix of persistent macroeconomic factors and official central bank projections. As the Middle East conflict continues unabated with no end in sight, and with the Saudi East West pipe line (avoids the Strait of Hormuz) now closed, the potential for inflationary increases in the coming months is ever present and the markets could see more hawkish bets regarding rate increases before the end of the year.

Global Energy Crisis Deepens

As the United States/Iran conflict widens, Saudi Arabia has closed its crucial east/west pipeline after it was attacked by drones launched from Iraq, and officials confirm the attack originated in the southeastern province of Maysan. Saudi officials have yet to announce how badly the pipeline has been damaged, however, the president of Lipow Oil Associates suggested that a pump station had been seriously damaged and that engineers may be able to bypass the station resulting in a lower output, though on-line pictures show that repairs may take months. A meeting between the gulf states and Iran to be held in Salalah regarding the Strait of Hormuz has subsequently been cancelled due to the pipeline attack by Iran.

*Saudi Arabian East/West Pipeline – This pipeline is known as the Petroline and stretches for 746 miles from the Abqaiq oil fields in the eastern province (close to Bahrain and Qatar on the Persian Gulf coast) to the port city Yanbu on the west coast by the Red Sea. The pipeline was built during the 1980’s allowing Saudi Arabian oil exports to bypass the tanker war in the Persian Gulf, which was a result of the war between Iran and Iraq. The pipeline serves as a strategic and critical lifeline not only to Saudi Arabia but to the global economy, and is currently pumping 7 million barrels a day, which is the pipeline’s maximum capacity. 

As result of the pipeline closure, the Benchmark Brent Crude price has risen and is trading today at circa $107.84 p/bl having briefly gone through the $108 p/bl mark. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is also up, trading within a range of circa $101.81 p/bl – $103.86 p/bl, having recently surged past the $100 p/bl mark. During the past week, oil prices have continued to rise due to the on-going conflict in the Middle East, and in the US, consumers saw the retail price of diesel shoot past $6.00 per gallon, being a record price for the fuel. Experts note that supply chain difficulties are the reason for the recent surge in energy prices, and the longer the east/west pipeline remains shut, there remains the potential for further increases in energy prices. 

Furthermore, Iranian backed Houthi rebels have been advancing towards coastal areas of the Red Sea which border the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait or Gateway*, and with the Houthis attempting to seize the Yemeni port city of Mokha, could well impact maritime security in the area – resulting in pushing crude oil prices even higher. The Houthis have already been disrupting shipping in this area through its control of Hodeida, another port city, and if they take control of Mokha this would most certainly see the rebels tightening its grip on the strait.

*Bab el-Mandeb Gateway – Often translated from Arabic as the “Gate of Tears” or the “Gate of Grief”, possibly an apt description considering the current state of affairs in the Middle East. It is located between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula and is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, as well as a crucial shortcut between Europe and Asia. Historically, the gateway has handled circa 10% – 12% of all global trade and acts as a primary artery for energy transportation between Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Analysts advise that millions of barrels of petroleum products transit the gateway daily and its closure will have a direct effect on the global economy.

Elsewhere, European gas prices have had five weeks of consecutive gains, and at the start of this week continued to head north as risks to supply were compounded by the closure of the east/west Saudi pipeline. Due to the Middle East confrontation, LNG supplies from Qatar have been crippled and Europe is heading into winter with its lowest level of gas storage for twenty years. 

Today, the competition is cut throat for LNG cargoes that do not have cross geographically charged checkpoints, and as winter approaches, experts advise there is the potential for a global fight for fuel. Data shows that the competition for LNG is intensifying in Asia where spot prices for LNG surged to levels not seen since 2022, and as buyers in Asia and Europe compete for alternative cargoes, the price for European natural gas has dramatically risen.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) has warned that oil consumption for the remainder of 2026 will fall and have accordingly cut forecasts for oil demand as the Middle East Conflict between the US and Iran continues unabated. The IEA projects that the drop in oil demand for 2026 will be 2.5 million b/pd (barrels per day), and due to the current crisis, it is estimated there will be a deeper shortfall in supply than originally advised. 

Forecasts for Benchmark Brent Crude Oil at the close of 2026 vary among major financial institutions and energy advisory firms: JP Morgan projects $78/bbl, HSBC has revised its estimate to $90/bbl, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) predicts $89–$90/bbl, and Barclays maintains an average forecast of $100/bbl. Some analysts predict even higher prices, but the world waits to see if there is any conclusion to this conflict on the horizon, as consumers globally see their costs of living going forever higher.

Escalation in the Middle East Crisis as Brent Crude Hits the USD101 Mark

Benchmark Brent Crude oil climbed above $101, hitting its highest price per barrel since July this year, with recent prices being quoted at $101.69 p/bl (per barrel) with West Texan Intermediate trading at circa $96.14 p/bl. Increased concerns about the shipment of crude oil through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, due to escalating attacks within the region along with the Iranian-backed Houthi militants targeting Saudi Arabian energy facilities, have been responsible for driving up the price of crude oil. 

In the meantime, the Iranian media have announced that the country will not back down in the face of increased strikes from the American task force, and have promised to escalate their counterstrikes if the United States continues to target infrastructure and oil tankers. Whilst their leaders acknowledge that the country is suffering from severe economic pain, they feel that the existential threat they are facing from the US leaves them no choice but to carry on fighting. 

The US/Iran war has now entered seven months of hostilities, with comments by officials on both sides suggesting that there is little chance of the war ending in the near future. As proof of this, on Tuesday a US warship was forced to evade an attack by Iranian ballistic missiles and in response destroyed five Iranian energy tankers, with Iran then launching twenty missiles at an airbase in Jordan currently being used by the US. President Trump has continued his dialogue, suggesting that Iran is at the end of the road and the war will end immediately after the mid-term elections in November, which many observers suggest is nothing more than a gesture to the American voters.

Experts confirm that one of the main planks of the White House’s war with Iran was that the Iranian people would rise up and oust the government, but a mass uprising late last year due to severe economic pressures only led to thousands of innocent people being slaughtered by Iranian authorities. The current blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has stopped Tehran from exporting most of its petroleum, plus, they are unable to import a cross section of goods vital to the populace and the economy. Officials in the Iranian government have said that the US must go back to the failed Memorandum of Understanding signed in June if any talks are to take place. 

Benchmark Brent Crude oil has increased by circa 70% since the start of this year, and today, November settlement briefly went above the $102 p/bl mark, though it is still well below its March/April 2026 wartime peak of $126.41 p/bl. Some experts suggest that the price of Brent Crude due to supply chain conditions could reach $120 p/bl by close of business 31st December 2026.  On the diesel front, analysts advise that the current crunch in the global diesel refining sector will keep prices elevated due to tight supply in this arena. The market is also having to cope with Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries in Russia, which has resulted in Russian authorities extending the current ban on diesel exports. 

Experts suggest that the big loser in the diesel market will be North West Europe, as the onset of the winter months will produce a dramatic increase in consumption of this energy product. Whilst exports of diesel from the United States have partially alleviated tightness in the European market (import dependent), analysts suggest that this will not cover the increase in consumption come the winter months. Market observers note that the war is set to continue despite briefings to the contrary from the White House. In fact, no lesser figures than US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Mario Rubio have both suggested that the Middle East conflict could run through to the end of President Trump’s presidency in January 2029.

Escalating Yields of Global Sovereign Bonds

Earlier this week, global sovereign bond yields surged to multi-decade highs as hopes faded for a US/Iran/Israel peace deal, which has kept oil and energy prices elevated — escalating fears for increases in inflation. The 30-year US Treasury yield went above the 5.3% yield (the highest since 2007, with long-term borrowing costs across European and Asian benchmarks spiking to multi-decade highs). According to experts, the massive sell-off in global debt is due to elevated oil prices fuelling inflation fears, highly elevated government fiscal deficits, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure.

Analysts advise that investor concerns regarding inflation, government debt and the debt laden AI boom, have converted into selling longer maturity bonds with a heavy price being paid by governments as their costs of borrowing keep rising. Indeed, analysts confirm that in Germany, government costs of borrowing were this week at their highest level since 2011. In France, government borrowing costs were also at their highest point since 2008. Meanwhile, in Japan, government bonds were close to their all-time high recorded in June 1984, and the United Kingdom equivalent long-dated yields were approaching 6%.

Analysts point to AI “hyperscalers” who have dramatically increased borrowing, while governments continue spending at a vastly increased rate. This has been a key factor in pushing up government bond yields, as buyers demand higher returns to keep purchasing the avalanche of bonds coming onto the market. Unsurprisingly, when the US Department of the Treasury held a $25 billion 30-year Treasury bond auction on Thursday 13th August this year, the sale cleared at a high yield of 5.216%, marking the highest borrowing cost for a 30-year bond auction since 2001. Experts pointed out the yield was driven by swelling budget deficits and strong investor demand for higher returns.

*AI Hyperscalers – Defined as large-scale cloud providers or tech giants that operate massive, globally distributed data centres which are packed with specialised chips to train, host, and scale artificial intelligence models. They supply the immense computing power and infrastructure required for the modern AI boom. The biggest AI hyperscalers are: AWS (Amazon Web Services), GCP (Google Cloud Platform), Meta Platforms and OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure), and together, these companies control over 70% of the world’s total AI computing infrastructure.

Experts advise that competition for capital has reached levels rarely seen in recent times. Driven by the rapid AI build-out and other factors mentioned above, this capital scarcity is directly pushing bond yields higher. Data released shows that so far this year, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta alone have issued circa $220 billion in bonds which almost double the total amount of bonds issued in 2025 (which stood $108 billion at close of business 31st December 2025).

In the US, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a fresh attempt to rein in long-term borrowing—doubling the size of liquidity support for 10- to 30-year Treasuries from his original announcement two weeks ago. This had the effect of lowering the 30-year yield by circa 10 basis points to 5.18%, encouraging a small domino effect on long dated government bonds in other countries. However, this has only increased the Treasury Department’s borrowings, and with the public debt now in excess of $40 trillion for the first time, experts suggest that this is only a temporary fix. 

Mid-term elections are in November, and with consumers having to pay higher mortgages, fuel costs, and energy bills, a voter backlash could lead to a lame-duck presidency for the next two years. There is no end in sight for the Middle East conflict, and if Democrats regain control of the Senate, as pollsters currently expect, the US could be rudderless for two years, with long-dated bond yields perhaps elevating even higher than this week’s record peaks.

The Disconnect Between Fuel Prices and the Price of Crude Oil

On the 9th August, the Benchmark Brent Futures for October hit $84.11p/bl (per barrel) which is still well below the highest price per barrel of $126.41 recorded on 30th April 2026, as Iran continues to demand tougher concessions in on-going negotiations with the United States. Global Benchmark Brent Crude was trading at circa $72.30p/bl on 27th February 2026, the day before the USA launched its attack on Iran, and even though the price is currently about $14p/bl higher, the price for diesel and petrol remain inflated at the pumps due to record premiums over crude oil.

Experts advise that if indeed the Strait of Hormuz reopens, consumers and businesses will not see a reduction in fuel at the pumps, as the gap between crude oil and its refined products has spiked in recent weeks. Analysts note that the diesel commodity is currently trading at a premium of roughly $70 per barrel over crude oil. While slightly down from its recent record high of $90 per barrel, this remains far above historical levels of around $20 per barrel.

Analysts advise that this current disconnect is due to the global shortage in refining capacity, with some of the world’s largest refiners being cut off by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, China is currently restricting exports of refined products, and Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s refineries has not helped matters. 

A number of experts point out that global inventories are diminishing by the day and Europe is particularly vulnerable due to years switching investments to green energy, ignoring investing in refineries, and are now reliant upon imports for much of their domestic consumption. In Europe, analysts advise another reason that diesel is trading at a higher than normal premium is because the marginal barrel price of diesel in Europe is becoming more expensive, due to the market paying a higher price to pull replacement barrels into a physically tight European system.

Europe is also facing upward pressure on diesel and petrol prices as energy supply chains begin to run out of water. The water levels in the Rhine are reaching record lows which is restricting barge traffic, and in turn it has pushed gasoil freight rates to record levels. Authorities will now have to adapt energy supply routes to these critical weather conditions, which experts estimate will not be ending any time soon, placing further upward pressure on fuel and energy prices. In fact, experts warn that Europe could face a serious diesel shortage this winter due to limited domestic refining capacity and its heavy reliance on imports. 

Experts note a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains distant. Tehran has rejected direct talks with the United States, and even though Iran and Oman are apparently close to agreeing terms on shipping lanes within the Strait, Iran has said they will not reopen the Strait unless the United States accede to their demands. The US/Iran/Israel continues to drag on, and analysts advise that refined crude products could well increase in price as the months go on.

Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Today, the Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in a split vote, voted 6 – 3 to keep interest rates on hold in a range of 3.5% – 3.75% for the fifth time in a row. The three members of the MPC who voted to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, to 4.00%, were external members: Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Chief Economist Huw Pill. Once again, officials reiterated earlier statements, and maintaining guidance stressed that “the panel were ready to act” to halt lingering inflation. 

UK officials are signalling that domestic price pressures are easing quicker than earlier predictions, despite tensions in the Middle East with an ‘on-again off-again’ war where currently, Iran and the USA have reopened hostilities. BOE officials further noted that there were clear signs of easing on the domestic inflationary front. They also highlighted evidence suggesting that higher prices and increased wage demands resulting from the energy shock were indeed scarce.

BOE Governor, Andrew Bailey, said after the meeting that, “There is little evidence of second round effects, although it is too early to take much comfort in that. Holding bank rate is appropriate as global conditions look to be more uncertain and inflationary, while domestic conditions are, on balance, more benign as regards the prospects for inflation”. Given the tone of the Governor’s take on today’s decision, experts suggest that the core of the MPC appear to be nowhere close to voting for an increase in rates. 

Some analysts believe that the committee could change their thinking if energy prices increase,second-round inflationary effects materialise, or the Middle East conflict escalates. Officials noted that inflation is currently below the level that the central had previously predicted, but the bank does expect that in the coming months, the economy will witness an increase in price growth. This means consumers will experience an increase in household energy bills alongside a fresh rise in costs at the fuel pumps.

The BOE has issued a number of inflation forecasts showing differing scenarios for the cost of oil and gas. First, they restored their original forecast from April, which was based on a prediction through to the 20th of July pointing to inflation hitting 3.2% by close of business 31st December 2026, before returning to circa 2.00%, the bank’s benchmark target in 2027. The second scenario which shows Brent Benchmark crude hitting the $100p/bl mark and remaining above that mark shows a pessimistic prediction of inflation reaching the 4.5% mark in Q2, 2027. The third scenario by Q2, 2027, shows inflation peaking at 3%, with a downgraded prediction of second round effects* if there is a faster resolution to the current conflict in the Middle East. 

*Second Round Effects – In these scenarios, second round effects are price and wage-settings stemming from the current shock that have the potential to raise Eurozone inflation beyond the near-term in a persistent manner.

Interestingly, in all of the above scenarios, GDP growth is predicted to be circa 1%  in 2026 and 2027, before gaining some positive traction in 2028. Experts suggest that the MPC’s concerns on second-round effects appear to have receded as there seems to be a more dovish attitude, suggesting that inflation will not negatively impact broader inflation. After the rate hold, the swaps and futures markets have trimmed their expectations for an increase in interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on 17th September 2026, pricing in a roughly 40% implied chance for an increase in rates.

Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Players in the financial markets have recently been at odds with one another as to whether or not the Federal Reserve would hike or keep interest rates on hold. Today, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) kept rates steady at a range of 3.5% – 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting that the central bank has opted to keep rates on hold. Policymakers voted by 9 – 3 in favour of a rate hold with Cleveland Federal Reserve, President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Federal Chairman, Nel Kashkari, and Dallas Federal Reserve, President Lorie Logan, being the three dissenting voices who all voted to hike rates.

Officials hinted that an interest rate rise could arrive this September, as the continuing Middle East conflict has ensured a rapid rise in energy prices. Officials suggest this could be a catalyst for an increase in headline inflation, which in June this year fell to 3.5%, the first decline in five months, but still remains elevated above the central bank’s target of 2%. Indeed, the inflation rate has remained elevated above the Federal Reserve’s target for more than five years, with a dissenting governor, the Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman saying, “Every month of above-target inflation has compounded the strain on Americans’ budgets”.

In a post-meeting press conference, Federal reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh explained why interest rates were not raised this time around by saying, “If inflation continues to be elevated through the forecast period, interest rates could well be part of that solution, but I wouldn’t say it’s in isolation”. The Chairman went on to explain that market rates since their last policy meeting had climbed anyway, suggesting that investors are doing some of the work for the Federal Reserve. The chairman stated that this was partially due to his decision to row back on future potential rate moves the central bank usually offers in on-going statements. He added, “Markets have made decisions because we stepped back in part from trying to influence them. Market judgements have moved up on what nominal rates are across the Treasury curve”.

Experts point out that combined with an AI fed boom in demand, the current on-going US/Iran/Israel conflict, (now almost five months old), and a new slate of tariffs, inflation could remain in an elevated position for some time to come. Indeed, with the stop go policies regarding the Middle East conflict emanating from the White House, the price of crude oil bounces between above $100p/bl to somewhere between $85 – $90p/bl, suggesting that if the war stopped tomorrow, consumers would not see their energy bills decrease for many months to come. 

Analysts point out that some of the pressure was taken off policymakers to raise rates due to data confirming a reduction in inflation last month, with consumer prices falling for the first time since 2020. However, policymakers remain under pressure from when the White House restarted the Middle East conflict, which sent oil prices past the $100p/bl mark, despite the fact it now hovers around the $83p/bl mark. Analysts point to the swaps/futures markets which are pricing in circa 70% possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike at the FOMC’s next policy meeting on September 15 – 16, 2026, which would lift the target range of Federal Funds from 3.50% – 3.75% to 3.75% – 4.00%. Indeed, driven by persistent inflationary pressure and hawkish dissent within the FOMC, short-term interest rate swaps and futures are favouring tightening over cuts.

Is The AI Investing Boom Sustainable?

The sustainability of the AI (Artificial Intelligence) spending boom has come under scrutiny due to China’s progress in advanced chip making, which has resulted in a sell-off of semiconductor stocks and shares throughout the world. Although the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) World Semiconductor Index is still up 28% since the 1st January this year, this month, it has fallen by 16% recording its worst performance since 2022. Data also shows the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling for the fourth session in a row, and the tech heavy US Nasdaq-100 fell 1.80% having already fallen by 10.00%.

In South Korea, the Kospi fell by 11.00% with chip giants such as SK Hynix Inc (fallen by a total of 47% from their record high last month) and Samsung Electronics Co both falling by more than 14.00%. Indeed, SK Hynix Inc has suffered a $600 billion collapse in just over a month, which analysts say is due to an increase in leveraged-induced volatility and overcrowding, and has gone from one of the world’s most fashionable and hottest trades to portfolio managers now questioning whether to hold or sell. Today, South Korea led the Asian sell-off in semi-conductor shares with selling carrying on through Europe and onto the United States, with key chip companies taking the brunt of the sell-off. 

Analysts suggest that one of the main reasons for the sell-off in superconductor shares are reports that Chinese companies have begun mass producing machinery that is critical to the manufacture of advanced microchips, critical to the performance of AI. Indeed, experts in the semiconductor industry report that China-based Shanghai Yuliangsheng has begun producing lithography machines. These machines use high-powered lasers to imprint designs onto silicon wafers, which are then used to manufacture chips. Analysts advise that later this year Shanghai Yuliangsheng is expected to start delivering lithography machines to leading Chinese chipmakers. 

Experts acknowledge that up to now, this technology was dominated by leading western chip giants and suggest the progress that China has made in the chipmaking arena has placed the semiconductor market in a bit of a panic, as the Chinese progress could threaten the competitive position of global chip equipment and chipmaking leaders. Adding to market concerns was the Shanghai stock market debut on Monday 27th July of the Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT, as analysts suggest this company may well intensify global competition in the memory industry. One industry expert suggested that CXMT will be one of the big industry’s weights and this was borne out by the company’s valuation soaring by 466% on market debut.

A report suggesting that a Chinese state-backed company had begun to mass produce immersion deep ultra violet lithography machines for chipmaking has also spooked the markets, with investors worrying if the payoff would be worth the billions being invested in AI development. Experts advise that investors are also worrying about the increase in “circular deals”, as there are interconnections between AI start-ups and technology manufacturers, where losses can be magnified if AI do not match up to heightened market expectations. A circular deal in this instance is where a primary supplier such as a chipmaker or cloud provider invests capital or provides financial backing to an AI model developer, who then immediately routes that money back to the investor by purchasing their hardware, cloud or infrastructure services. 

 A number of market commentators within this arena suggest that short-term semiconductor stocks face high volatility, sharp global selloffs and technical pressure, driven by recent repricing, despite underlying AI demand remaining strong. Key items include near-term downside momentum, heavy data-centre spending and high valuations, resulting in global chip stocks recently shedding over $1 trillion in a broad market correction as investors deleverage and re-evaluate risk.

2026 on Track for Record Number of New ETFs 

This year has so far seen more than one thousand new ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and as of 15th July, data released showed the exact figure to be 1,084 (at close of business 2025 records showed a record total of 1,161 new ETFs) with some funds offering leveraged bets on individual stocks or equity indices. Experts suggest this is somewhat akin to a trial-and-error approach to see what resonates with the market, as some of these fund managers and investment companies are not well known and are looking to emulate established market leaders such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust or Roundhill Memory ETF, who both received investment inflows within a matter of months to the tune of many billions by offering access to high-demand market products.

Analysts suggest that the increase in new ETF listings is due to increasing demand by investors, especially in the United States where as opposed to mutual funds, the ETFs also offer increased tax advantages, and as mentioned above are now offering increased access to a wider range of investment products. As of 30th June this year, data released showed that there were net inflows in excess of $1 trillion in ETFs listed in the US, with experts forecasting total inflow of $2.3 trillion by the end of 2026. Indeed, figures released for the Roundhill Memory ETF showed that in just under two months, the fund had received inflows in excess of $10 billion as investors demanded access to shares in the AI arena that were receiving huge amounts of investment.

Analysts advise that most newly listed ETFs have moved away from traditional tracker funds, the original backbone of the industry. Instead, today’s ETFs offer more exotic products, such as buffer ETFs, which provide downside risk protection alongside the transparency, low costs, and liquidity of traditional ETFs. One expert noted that a number of these funds are copycat funds, as when a new ETF offers a fashionable and popular investment, other ETFs follow quickly offering the same product. Another popular product is the customised ETF favoured by the high and ultra-high-net-worth investors, as it looks to defer and sometimes avoid capital gains tax.

Elsewhere in the ETF arena, an increasingly popular Customised ETF is acting as a hedge against capital gains tax.  

The 351 Conversion

Experts advise that a Section 351 conversion is a tax-free strategy that lets investors pool or transfer appreciated assets, such as individual stocks or SMAs (Separately Managed Accounts), into a newly formed customised ETF without triggering immediate capital gains taxes. Immediately after the exchange, the transferring investor must own at least 80% of the new ETF shares. Furthermore, under standard diversification rules, the ETF portfolio must meet the 25/50 test, meaning no single stock can account for over 25% of the total value, and the top five stocks cannot exceed a combined 50%. Furthermore, holdings within the ETF must meet the stated investment strategy with cash, crypto, and government bonds not counting toward the diversification rule.

Asset Preservation: Raising Capital Without Liquidation or Dilution

For expanding companies, developers, and institutional project sponsors, the pursuit of capital is often a balancing act of compromises. Securing traditional financing usually forces a stark choice: either liquidate high-performing treasury assets to satisfy conservative loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, or issue new shares and accept permanent equity dilution.

However, forcing a fire sale of core holdings or forfeiting corporate control are structural errors that can permanently impair a company’s long-term valuation. Genuine asset preservation means utilizing alternative capital structures to access institutional liquidity while leaving your equity and existing asset base completely untouched.

The strategic trade-off: Dilution vs. liquidation

When faced with a capital-intensive project, executive teams frequently exhaust their options trying to balance growth against ownership preservation.

Preventing equity dilution in growth phases is the practice of securing development or expansion capital without issuing new shares. Standard dilutive financing permanently transfers future corporate upside and decision-making power to external investors. Conversely, asset liquidation prematurely terminates the compound growth and yield of existing holdings, resulting in lost opportunity costs and potential tax liabilities.

While many executives search for viable ways to raise equity capital without losing control of company operations, the most strategic approach often involves bypassing equity and shifting the focus toward structured non-dilutive debt financing frameworks. This allows companies to access the liquidity they need while fully shielding both their equity and their existing corporate asset base from disruption.

The balance sheet logic of collateral-supported capital

When conventional lenders decline a borrowing request due to an asset deficit, corporate treasurers often make the mistake of liquidating active balance-sheet reserves to bridge the gap. Rather than disrupting your own balance sheet, a more sophisticated alternative is to implement a structured asset monetization strategy.

Under this model, rather than relying on the borrower’s organic asset base, a professional capital advisor structures a transaction where a third-party asset owner (the Provider) makes the collateral value of an established, existing Debt Security available to the borrowing company (the Recipient) for a defined term.

By applying these advanced collateral optimization techniques, the transaction operates smoothly:

  • The Provider remains the legal and economic owner of the asset, receiving a contract fee in return.
  • The Recipient achieves the primary goal of leveraging existing assets for capital by presenting this temporary, structured security to an independent lender to back a credit facility.
  • Your firm obtains vital, compliant off balance sheet funding without selling off operational reserves, liquidating yielding portfolios, or triggering adverse tax events.

Maintaining the separation of liabilities

A critical aspect of this structured finance model is the strict separation of contractual liabilities. This is not a joint venture or an equity partnership; it is a clean, institutional arrangement consisting of two distinct agreements:

  1. The collateral facility: A bilateral contract between the Provider and the Recipient governing the use, term, contract fee, and ultimate release of the Debt Security.
  2. The credit facility: An independent transaction between the Recipient and the lender.

The Provider’s role is strictly limited to supplying the collateral support. The nominated lender independently conducts its own credit, valuation, and legal due diligence to decide whether to provide credit and under what specific terms. The existence of a collateral facility does not guarantee credit approval, as lending decisions remain subject to the bank’s independent risk policies.

Navigating the coordinated transaction process

Structuring liquidity options without asset liquidation requires a highly coordinated, disciplined process between the borrower, the advisory firm, the asset Provider, and the issuing financial institutions.

Stage 1: Eligibility & feasibility assessment

The advisory team reviews the applicant’s business case, funding objectives, and repayment model to ensure the underlying transaction is commercially viable.

Stage 2: Transaction preparation & structuring

Documentation is assembled and the commercial structure is defined—including the collateral value required, the contractual term, and the Provider’s Contract Fee.

Stage 3: Contractual execution & custody setup

Upon Provider approval, formal agreements are executed, and the existing Debt Security is placed under the agreed blocking, control, or security arrangement.

Stage 4: Independent lender underwriting

The proposed lender undertakes its credit, legal, and compliance assessments. Once all conditions are satisfied, the financing is completed against the blocked collateral.

The role of the exit strategy

An exit strategy is not merely a compliance check; it is the ultimate safeguard of your preserved assets. Because the underlying Debt Security is made available for a fixed contractual term, the borrowing must be completely settled or refinanced before that period expires.

Without a meticulously planned repayment pathway, a borrower risks default—a scenario that could force the exact emergency asset liquidation or distress equity dilution the transaction was originally designed to avoid.

To understand how to structure this timeline safely and prevent these structural risks, read our strategic guide on why your exit strategy dictates your alternative funding success.

Secure your growth without forfeiting your control

Bespoke financial structures demand meticulous, professional orchestration. A Debt Security Collateral Transfer facility can elegantly bridge a critical collateral deficit, but it requires a viable underlying business case, experienced management, and a robust repayment strategy.

At IntaCapital Swiss, we turn complex balance-sheet constraints into executable, professionally structured transactions. Contact us today to schedule an initial transaction feasibility assessment.