Tag: Crude Oil

The Iranian Crisis & Rising Prices: Does Oil or Gold Offer Better Protection?

The current Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz (where circa 20% of the world’s supply of crude oil and associated derivatives flow), has turned inflation predictions on its head. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the ECB, along with many other central banks, originally planned to cut interest rates in 2026. However, both the banks and financial markets are now predicting potential holds or even rate increases to combat rising inflation.

Oil

Experts advise that oil generally offers an immediate protection against rising inflation, especially during energy-driven price shocks like the one currently fueled by the United States/Iran/Israel conflict. Indeed, as a direct driver of inflation, oil and other energy related investments often spike during a crisis, providing strong returns and offering better, more direct protection than gold during times of rising inflation. However, analysts advise that investors need to take care, as during this current crisis the oil market has seen much volatility.

Gold

Common wisdom suggests that in times of crisis, investors flee to a safe haven such as gold, however, the current Iranian conflict has turned this assumption in its head. Indeed, since the start of the US invasion of Iran codenamed Operation Epic Fury on February 28th, 2026, Brent Crude has increased by 37%, whilst gold has retreated by 15%. Gold hit a historic all-time high of over $5,500 in January, before retreating below $4,400 by late March. Since that correction, it has regained ground and is currently trading between $4,710 and $4,730 per troy ounce.

On 28th January this year, gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 per troy ounce, one month before the start of the Iran conflict. This, according to many analysts, was due to rallying on the back of tariff uncertainty, central bank buying and exceptional demand for gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). The fall in the price of gold as suggested by experts is primarily due to surging bond yields, a strong US Dollar and investors taking profits after the aforementioned massive rally in 2025. Experts in the gold arena suggest that many investors sold for liquidity purposes, resulting in a flight to cash rather than a flight to safe haven.

Analysts advise that the rise in bond yields have raised the “opportunity cost”* of holding non-interest bearing assets such as gold. Also, with inflation expectations roaring into view on the back of the current energy shock, government bond yields have spiked globally. The UK 10-year government bonds (Gilts) hit their highest level since 2008. A 15-year high was reached by German bunds, and the 10-year US Treasury recently enjoyed a number of highs and hit 4.38% on Friday before slipping back. 

*Opportunity cost – The next best alternative investors give up when deciding whether or not to move out of one asset class and into another. It represents missed benefits when choosing one option over another. 

Geopolitical Uncertainty and the Outlook for Peace

Just how long oil prices will remain elevated and gold prices depressed will largely depend on the current Middle East crisis ending as soon as possible. However, despite White House rhetoric, an agreement to end the war with Iran seems to be a long way off. With Israel increasing their attacks in Lebanon, and cargo ships still being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, any peace plan put forward by the Americans may have little hope of receiving Iranian approval.

Is The Global Oil Market Just Weeks Away From Imploding?

Experts within the oil arena suggest that the global oil market could reach the point of no return between the end of May and the end of June, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into the summer and beyond. Experts are advising that the blockade will reduce the levels of stock of diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and crude oil to critical levels by the end of May, when prices will go through the roof. 

One renowned expert advised that global oil reserves are currently at their lowest levels for eight years driven by trade frictions and refining bottlenecks, even though there are still ample supplies of oil . Estimates suggest that in Europe, and excluding government emergency reserves, commercial jet inventories could, by June, fall below the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) critical 23-day threshold. 

Analysts advise that any buffers to the shortages could well be reduced to zero by the end of June, pushing the price even higher than those predicted at the end of May, reaching levels of circa $200p/bbl or higher. The effect on households all over the world could be devastating as the cost of food increases, petrol and diesel at the pumps could see prices never seen before, and airlines dramatically reduce flights whilst increasing ticket prices.

Indeed, between them, global airlines have cut circa two million seats in May (2% of global aviation capacity) due to the frightening increase in jet fuel. Analysts advise that the most exposed country is the United Kingdom, being the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe. Refineries in the UK have been requested to maximise jet fuel production under government agreed contingency planning, though the Labour government refused requests by industry to reduce taxes. 

On-going fighting between Iran and the USA has increased today, with Iran bombing a critical oil port in Fujairah, UAE. The longer the war goes on, more critical problems for economies will surface, with inflation in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom expected to move upwards. Hopefully, an end to the confrontation can be found soon, otherwise global economies, industry and households will all begin to suffer. Experts advise that families and businesses who intend to fly in the coming months should book early to avoid potential disappointment.

UAE to Leave OPEC

A historic departure and strategic vision

The UAE (United Arab Emirates) recently announced that after sixty years of membership the country has left OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OPEC+* on May 1st 2026, saying the decision to leave the two oil cartels will allow them greater flexibility to charter their own path under their long-term strategic and economic vision. Furthermore, the UAE had threatened to quit the cartels in the past, due to longstanding tensions between themselves and Saudi Arabia. 

*OPEC+ – Short for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations, and is a coalition of 23 oil producing countries of which the full members are Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. There are a further 10 non-OPEC Partner Countries that form the OPEC+ and make up the DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) and consist of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan. The whole group’s modus operandi is to cooperate on influencing the global oil market and stabilise prices.

Reserving the right to increase output

The UAE is not the first member to exit; Indonesia departed in 2016, followed by Qatar in 2019, Ecuador in 2020, and Angola in 2024. While various experts and oil commentators repeatedly predicted the demise of OPEC, the organization has proven resilient, continuing its operations largely unaffected. However, the UAE is on a different level to those countries who previously departed, wanting to increase the output of oil. With the geological backing on its side, the country has the finances to turn their ambitions into reality. Some observers suggest that leaving OPEC is due to the current Iranian crisis and the on-going closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but there are many observers who disagree with this.

Decades of tension over pricing and quotas

Many experts suggest that whilst the UAE has been majorly taken aback by the attacks by the Iranian regime, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the move to quit the cartel started nearly ten years ago. Experts say that the reasoning boils down to the price of crude oil, which the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been at loggerheads for over a decade, and over OPEC’s direction. Both Saudi and Russia have wanted to keep the price as close to $100 p/bbl, which meant at times curbing output, whilst the UAE, at the risk of lower prices, wanted to increase output. This argument was kept under wraps until July 2021, when at an OPEC+ meeting the divisions boiled over into the public domain.

The shift from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi’s autonomy

The clash between the two oil producers caused the meeting to be adjourned for two days, until Abu Dhabi eventually retreated from their stance under massive pressure from Riyadh. Experts advise that the UAE has never forgotten this humiliating experience and are perhaps using the current Iranian conflict as a front to leave the cartel. They are in reality leaving to produce more oil, which is against the express wishes and interests of Saudi Arabia. The authorities in Abu Dhabi have been quick to calm any nerves within the energy market, promising to act responsibly by bringing additional output in a measured and gradual manner. 

Weakening OPEC’s global market influence

Analysts point out that without the barrels from the UAE, OPEC’s global market share will fall below 30% for the first time as the UAE’s was OPEC’s third largest producer and second highest spare production capacity. Indeed, OPEC loses circa 15% of its total capacity, severely weakening its position and ability to adjust and set global prices. OPEC’s share of global oil production has been slowly declining due to the rise of US shale. Some analysts feel that now Abu Dhabi has left the cartel, other nations may follow, looking to capitalise on the current heightened price of oil. 

Standing alone: The path forward

In the end, experts believe that the UAE did not need OPEC, and their production was already in excess of OPEC quotas before the current conflict. Officials in Abu Dhabi have long felt the direction taken by OPEC was more to favour Saudi needs than to serve the needs of its members. The UAE has spent years in expanding its production capacity and is now ready to stand alone, dropping the shackles of OPEC, increasing total exports which may well see the dropping in prices in the medium term.

IEA Declares Largest Ever Global Oil Supply Disruption

Headquartered in Paris, France, the IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently declared that the current Middle East Crisis is responsible for the creation of what will most likely be the largest supply disruption the global oil market has ever encountered. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is eroding the current oil surplus, and it is forcing energy producers and exporters within the Persian Gulf to cut output. 

Officials from the IEA have estimated that the current US/Iran/Israel conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 Million/bls a day this month, and they went on to confirm that overall exports of crude oil and other products through the Strait of Hormuz are already down by circa 90%. Original predictions by the IEA for 2026 was for a record oil glut/surplus, these have now been dramatically reduced. As of Wednesday last week, the IEA announced that members (32 OECD* nations) had approved to let go 400 Million/bls from emergency reserves.

*OECD – Based in Paris, France the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is an international forum of 38, mostly industrialised countries that promote policies to improve economic and social well-being worldwide. Founded in 1961, it acts as a knowledge-based organisation developing standards and research to improve trade, financial stability and public policy.

Despite output losses from the Persian gulf being slightly set off by increased production from non-OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), the IEA has said that the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be felt well beyond the time that the Strait is reopened. Sadly, consumers in many countries around the world will be forced to endure for many months, maybe years, higher prices for food, petrol and diesel, airline flights, restaurants and many other day-to-day  purchases.

How Does Today’s Oil Crisis Compare to that of the Early 1970’s

Current Impact on Consumers

As a result of the United States/Israel/Iran war the world is now reeling from a global energy shock with prices of gas, electricity and fuel at the petrol pumps all hitting the consumer where it hurts, in the pocket! In the United Kingdom, diesel prices at the pumps before the war started were circa 134p per litre, whereas today they are circa 185p per litre and rising. On the intercity motorway’s, diesel is being offered in some cases at even 200p per litre. In the EU (European Union), commentators advise that Brussels are drawing up plans for potential rationing of jet fuel and/or diesel with officials stressing that these are just emergency plans. 

Lessons from the 1973 Embargo

The oil crisis back in the early 70’s was fundamentally different to the crisis the world is facing today, but the potential outcome of today’s crisis is essentially the same: It could trigger a global financial and economic crisis. The crisis began in 1973 when OAPEC*  members imposed an oil embargo on the United States and other nations who were supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The result was the quadrupling of oil prices, severe shortages and rationing that consumed the countries involved. When the embargo was lifted in March 1974, there were economic recessions, massive inflation and major and lasting shifts in global energy policy. 

*OAPEC  – Founded in 1968 and stands for the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, limited to Arab oil-exporting nations. With headquarters in Kuwait the current membership includes Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the UAE (United Arab Emirates). This is a separate group from OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) which was founded in 1960, membership includes countries from Africa, the Middle East and South America. 

The Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Today’s oil crisis is different from the 1970s insofar as oil, gas and fertiliser shortages are due to the current United States/Israel/Iran conflict. This has resulted in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which circa 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas is shipped. Analysts and experts in the energy and economic arenas are at loggerheads as to the potential fall-out from this crisis, but all are agreed that this war should end sooner rather than later. 

Potential for Greater Economic Instability

A number of experts suggest that the fall-out from this crisis could be worse than the 1973 crisis, where both the USA and the UK suffered recessions from 1973 – 1975. In the UK, this resulted in the downfall of the Edward Heath led conservative government. One expert has suggested that currently, there could be a bigger energy shock as opposed to the early 70’s when there was a cut in oil of 5% – 7%, however, today we are looking at a global cut of circa 20%, and things will only get worse the longer the crisis goes on. Not only will there be a massive spike in oil, gas and food prices, but there will also be hikes in interest rates to combat the inevitable inflation. 

Supply Chain Risks: Beyond Fuel

Currently, there is irrefutable proof of what the future may hold as jet fuel has almost doubled, which will lead to increases in airfares, prices for the consumer at the pumps for diesel and petrol have already risen, and some foodstuffs in supermarkets are already seeing an increase in prices. One third of the world’s helium flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for the production of semi-conductors or micro chips used in just about everything consumers use on a daily basis. Analysts report that the Gulf region is also central and crucial to the global fertilizer supply, and if it becomes scarce the world could also be in for a food shock to add to the on-going energy shock.

The Long Road to Recovery

Consumers and governments alike are lucky that summer is fast approaching, therefore resulting in lower heating costs to households. However, experts advise that if the war was to end tomorrow, it would take at least a year for supply lines to get back to normal, and a further year to see a reduction in prices. However, if there has been substantial damage to refineries and export outlets, then analysts suggest it could be up to five years before normality resumes. 

The Limitations of Renewable Energy

Data shows that in the EU, wind and solar energy combined now outpace fossil fuel generation by 30% – 29%, and in the UK in 2024, renewables for the first time produced more than 50% of electricity. However, despite forward steps being made for renewables taking over from fossil fuels, and despite the ongoing rhetoric, the crisis in the Middle East shows that even after just five weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, there is already an energy crisis which highlights how far renewable energy still has to go. It is hoped that this conflict will end soon, otherwise, and according to experts, there could be intolerable economic hardship.

The Trump Factor: Navigating Oil Volatility, Interest Rates, and the Iran Conflict

The Emergence of a New Financial Fundamental

Experts advise that President Donald Trump has now become a financial fundamental*. Based on market analysis between early 2025 and today, his public statements, executive actions and social media posts have acted as immediate drivers of financial market volatility. Analysts now suggest that President Trump acts as a fundamental factor that traders and investors must track in order to manage risk. A recent example was President Trump’s announcement that the war would be ending soon, sending the US Dollar up and gold and crude oil down. 

*Financial Fundamentals – Geopolitical and economic data or statements released into the financial world that affect the prices of commodities, bonds, currencies, interest rates, futures etc., depending on the interpretation by traders and investors. 

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Tension

This week, market volatility has been rampant following mixed messages regarding Iran. Oil prices opened Monday by skyrocketing to over $120/bbl, while US stock futures initially tumbled. However, after President Trump announced the conflict would soon end, the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day rally in a month, while oil plummeted back below $90/bbl.

Volatility and the Fear Gauge

Trump continues to fan the flames of market volatility, which has reached its most intense levels since the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs of last April. Reflecting this turbulence, the VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) surged past the 35 mark on Monday, more than doubling its value since the start of the year.

*Cboe Volatility Index –  The Chicago Board Option Exchange Volatility Index was introduced by Cboe Global Markets in 1993 and is referred to as VIX. This is a market index that measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) – the core index for United States equities.

Crude Oil and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis 

Brent Crude Oil has also seen wild fluctuations this week, spiking at just under $120pbl on Monday and dropping to a low of $81.16pbl on Wednesday. This was due to mixed messages from the White House with Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who posted then deleted a message confirming the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which as it turned out was blatantly untrue. The Strait of Hormuz, the critical gateway out of the Persian Gulf, remains closed and as such, oil is currently trading at $92.54pbl.

ECB Policy and Inflationary Pressure

Elsewhere, officials of the ECB (European Central Bank) have suggested that the next meeting of the Governing Council might see a change in policy towards interest rates. Currently, an increase in policy rates may be on the cards as they keep an eye on inflation. Interest rates are currently hovering around the ECB’s benchmark target of 2.00%, but analysts advise that money markets have increased bets on the tightening of monetary policy, as energy costs skyrocket putting upward pressure on inflation.

Central Bank Caution Amidst Global Uncertainty

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, has assured the Eurozone that the bank will act to prevent another inflation crisis similar to the one sparked on 24th February 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. President Lagarde also stated, “Today there is so much uncertainty that I’d be incapable to say what we will decide at the upcoming policy meeting (18th – 19th March). We won’t rush into a decision because there is too much uncertainty, too much volatility.” While many observers agree with this statement, market analysts suggest that global stability would be much easier to achieve if President Trump and his administration moved away from the erratic rhetoric that continues to destabilize the markets.

What Will Be the Effect on Oil Prices If the USA and Iran Go Into Battle?

Last week, on 26th February, negotiators from the United States and Iran met for the third time in Geneva in an attempt to reach agreement over the decades-long nuclear dispute between the two countries. However, by 28th February, in operations codenamed Operation Epic Fury (USA) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel), the United States and Israel jointly conducted military airstrikes in Iran. The initial assault reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior political and military figures.

Iran is currently subject to international sanctions, and approximately 90% of its crude oil exports are purchased by China. According to data released by Kpler Ltd, a global data and analytics company specialising in real-time intelligence for the energy, maritime and commodities markets, Iranian crude exports reached approximately 1.25 million barrels per day in January this year.

Much of this crude oil is transported via a network commonly known as the “Dark Fleet”*, a group of ageing oil tankers that employ deceptive practices to bypass international regulations, sanctions and safety standards.

*The Dark Fleet is a large clandestine network of ageing oil tankers, shell companies and maritime service providers operating outside international regulations to transport sanctioned oil, primarily from Iran, Russia and, until recently, Venezuela. Analysts estimate the fleet comprises approximately 1,470 tankers that use tactics such as disabling tracking systems, forging documentation and conducting ship-to-ship transfers in open waters to evade sanctions.

The so-called Shadow Fleet is critical to Iran’s economy. Analysts suggest it transports millions of barrels of oil daily to China, generating billions of dollars annually. The United States government claims that a significant proportion of these revenues supports Iran’s nuclear programme, with roughly half of the exports reportedly under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Even before the latest escalation, rising tensions had pushed crude oil prices to a six-month high. As of Monday 23rd February, Brent Crude Futures settled at $71.66 per barrel. Following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, prices have risen to approximately $79.37 per barrel, representing an increase of around 8.5%.

Gas prices have also surged. Data from the EU natural gas benchmark shows prices rising by approximately 40% since Friday, reportedly after Qatar suspended LNG production and associated operations in Mesaieed Industrial City and Ras Laffan Industrial City following Iranian drone strikes.

Elsewhere, airline shares have fallen amid the conflict. International Airlines Group (owner of British Airways) declined by 6.6%, while EasyJet fell by 3.9%. The FTSE 100 also slipped by 1.2%. As expected, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold surged to $5,390, with some analysts suggesting it could climb towards $6,500 amid war-related uncertainty and inflationary pressures in the United States.

As previously warned by experts, if diplomatic talks failed the greatest risk lay in the potential closure or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The strait, only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, links the Arabian Sea to the Persian Gulf and is widely regarded as the backbone of global oil supply. A significant proportion of crude oil exports from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pass through this route.

The strait is now effectively closed, placing shipments of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at serious risk. More than USD 500 billion worth of oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz annually, meaning any prolonged disruption could expose the global economy to severe instability.

In response, the United States has assembled its largest concentration of naval and air power in the region since the 2003 Iraq War. Approximately 14 warships are currently deployed, centred around two carrier strike groups. The USS Abraham Lincoln is operating in the Arabian Sea, while the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, has recently arrived at Souda Bay in Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Supporting vessels reportedly include nine guided-missile destroyers and three littoral combat ships, positioned across the Arabian Sea off Oman, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. This military build-up echoes President Trump’s warning last Monday that if Iran failed to reach a deal with Washington, it would be “a very bad day for that country and, very sadly, for its people”.

With the United States and Israel now engaged in open conflict with Iran, the consequences for crude oil prices could be severe. Millions of barrels of crude oil, refined products and feedstocks shipped through the Strait of Hormuz are now at risk. Analysts suggest prices could spike dramatically, potentially reaching $130 per barrel.

Shipping costs are also rising. In June 2025, when the United States previously launched strikes in Iran, supertanker rates surged to approximately $76,000 per day, an increase of around 12%, for vessels carrying two million barrels of crude from the Persian Gulf to China. Data from the Baltic Exchange in London showed this was the highest level since March 2023, adding as much as $1.40 per barrel to shipping costs.

However, analysts argue that a prolonged war would not serve the interests of either the United States or Iran. Oil exports are vital to the Iranian economy, while higher global oil prices would quickly translate into increased petrol prices at the pump in the United States. With mid-term elections approaching in November, sustained fuel price increases could carry significant political consequences for President Trump.

Nevertheless, with hostilities now underway, daily market data indicates that oil and gas prices continue to rise sharply, with potentially far-reaching implications for economies worldwide.

Update for Crude Oil Prices

Current Market Performance vs. Predictions

In December 2025, many experts, commentators and analysts predicted that there would be an oversupply of crude oil in 2026, resulting in an oil glut caused by an increasing supply and weaker demand. Analysts suggested that the price of Brent Crude will average $58 bbl. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures traded up to $70 per bbl. for the first time since September 2025. Geopolitical tensions have helped bolster prices, with the global oil benchmark* rising by around 2.75%, while its US counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, climbed to just over $65 per barrel.

*Key Global Oil Benchmarks – The primary benchmarks are Brent Crude (North Sea), which covers 80% of global traded volume and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (US), which is a key benchmark for the Americas. Dubai Crude is also used as a benchmark for Middle Eastern oil sent to Asia.

Impact of Geopolitical Escalations

The recent rise in crude oil prices has mostly been attributed to President Donald Trump, who threatened Iran with military action unless they agree to a nuclear arms agreement. Experts suggest that the threat issued via President Trump’s social media (Truth Social) yesterday evening, where he said that US ships had been ordered to the region and were ready to ”fulfil their mission with speed and violence, if necessary”, is responsible for the escalation in geopolitical premium of oil priced by potentially $3.00 – $4.00 per bbl.

Supply Disruptions and Global Conflict

Beyond the impact of geopolitical tensions on crude oil prices, the recent rise has also been driven by major supply disruptions in Kazakhstan. Prices were further supported last Friday after President Putin dampened hopes of a long-term settlement in the war with Ukraine. Experts advise that, despite the oversupply and lower prices that were predicted for this year, oil prices are expected to remain elevated for the time being as the markets wait for the next move by the White House and Iran. Analysts have reported that Tehran have stepped up negotiations with its OPEC+* counterparts and key Middle Eastern countries in an effort to stave off American aggression.

*OPEC+ – is short for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations and is a coalition of 23 oil-producing countries, of which the full members are Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. There are a further 10 non-OPEC Partner Countries that form the OPEC+ and make up the DoC (Declaration of Cooperation), consisting of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan. The whole group’s modus operandi is to cooperate to influence the global oil market and stabilise prices.

Short-Term Outlook and Future Risks 

Experts advise that in the short-term (the next 4 to 6 weeks), based on technicals, the price of Brent Crude is estimated to trade within a range of $60 – 70 per bbl, with any movement being driven by geopolitical or inventory headlines. Despite a mid-range of analysts’ assessments of 2 – 3 million bbl per day, it is expected that today’s prices of crude oil will remain at the current level. Today, however, Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, and analysts advise that this will definitely spike the price of oil and will no doubt, according to political and military experts, lead to military intervention from the United States.

Drill Baby Drill: Why Expanding Oil Production Still Matters for Economic Growth, Security & Global Stability

For more than a decade, public debate surrounding energy has been defined almost entirely by the imperative of decarbonisation, ESG screens, and the political urgency of transitioning toward renewables. Governments, sovereign wealth funds, and large institutional capital allocators have been encouraged — and in many cases compelled — to shift funding away from hydrocarbons and toward solar, wind, hydrogen, and batteries. Yet the hard reality that continues to assert itself is simple: global societies remain overwhelmingly dependent on hydrocarbons, both as an energy source and as the irreplaceable feedstock for industrial production and logistics.

The much-maligned “Drill Baby Drill” policy position, shorthand for expanding domestic oil and gas extraction,  is often caricatured as outdated, environmentally negligent, or backwards-looking. But stripped of the politics, the logic of increased oil production remains compelling on economic, national security, and industrial grounds. For companies operating within the energy supply chain, traders, producers, refiners, and logistical operators, this reality is especially clear: hydrocarbons are not disappearing, the world is still short of energy, and the opportunity to fund and profit from oil transactions remains structurally significant for at least the next three decades.

At IntaCapital Swiss SA, we specialise in structured collateral financing, trade finance, and capital facilitation for legitimate, well-documented transaction flows — including oil trading, allocation funding, shipping, and production-linked financing. From our vantage point in the capital markets, the pro-production energy thesis is not ideological; it is grounded in commercial practicality and global macro conditions.

Oil Remains the Dominant Energy Source — And it Will For Decades

The starting point is empirical reality. Despite unprecedented investment into alternative energy, hydrocarbons still account for:

  • Over 80% of the global primary energy supply
  • Over 95% of transportation fuel
  • Near 100% of aviation, maritime, and heavy machinery fuel

Even optimistic transition forecasts from major agencies — including the IEA, EIA, and OPEC — anticipate substantial oil demand well into 2050, driven largely by non-OECD population growth, shipping expansion, urbanisation, fertiliser needs, plastics, petrochemicals, lubricants, and synthetic materials.

The “energy transition” debate tends to assume that oil is primarily a motor-fuel problem. But one cannot build solar panels, wind turbine blades, semiconductors, medical polymers, or electric vehicle tyres without petroleum derivatives. Even renewables depend on hydrocarbons for extraction, smelting, transportation, composite manufacturing, and installation.

Oil is not just a fuel — it is a foundational industrial material.

Expanding Production Lowers Costs & Protects Consumers

The economics of energy supply are as straightforward as any other commodity market: when production lags consumption, prices rise. For the last decade, policy pressures and ESG capital restrictions have underfunded upstream development. As a result, reserves have not been replaced at the pace required to stabilise long-term pricing.

When oil supply is restricted, the effects cascade across the economy:

  • Transport costs increase
  • Logistics and freight inflate
  • Food becomes more expensive
  • Manufacturing input costs rise
  • Consumer goods absorb energy-linked price increases
  • Governments face inflationary pressures

Discipline in upstream investment may be popular with shareholders seeking dividend yield and with activists focused on decarbonisation, but it is economically regressive. The households most impacted by expensive energy are not the wealthy; they are lower-income consumers for whom fuel and food expenditures represent a larger share of disposable income.

Expanding production through offshore platforms, shale development, onshore drilling campaigns, and improved refineries throughout has the opposite effect: downward pressure on prices, improved logistics competitiveness, and reduced inflationary strain throughout the economy. In macro-economic terms, an expanded hydrocarbon supply is profoundly pro-consumer.

Energy Security Cannot Be Outsourced

Perhaps the most powerful argument for expanding domestic oil production is geopolitical. Nations that rely on imported energy — particularly from adversarial or unstable regions — incur strategic vulnerabilities. Europe learnt this lesson twice in modern history: first with the geopolitical leverage of Russian natural gas, and more recently with global LNG and diesel supply constraints.

Energy is strategic sovereignty. If a nation cannot feed, fuel, and defend itself without foreign supply chains, it does not control its own outcomes. For this reason, countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Brazil, Angola, and Canada are increasingly expanding their upstream capacity despite public climate rhetoric. The “Drill Baby Drill” position — when recast in strategic language — simply states: Domestic energy production equals national security.

From an investor and lender standpoint, energy security translates into long-duration capital commitments, infrastructure build-out, and predictable export revenue streams. These are precisely the conditions under which private corporate funding, trade finance, and structured collateral facilities thrive.

Oil Revenues Fund the Transition — Not the Other Way Around

Another uncomfortable truth: every successful renewable transition in history has been funded by fossil fuel prosperity. Nations that possess hydrocarbons — particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE, Norway, and the United States — are not abandoning fossil fuels. They are monetising them to accelerate modernisation, diversification, and future energy integration.

The slogan could be inverted as: Drill Baby Drill = Finance Baby Finance. It is not oil vs renewables; it is oil funding renewables. When oil is scarce and expensive, consumer acceptance of energy transition weakens, and governments lose the fiscal room to subsidise innovation. When oil is abundant and competitively priced, governments can directly channel cash flow into infrastructure, EV charging networks, nuclear modularity, and battery chemistry R&D. The global transition requires capital, and hydrocarbons remain the financial engine that provides it.

Market Liquidity in Oil Trade Creates Funding Opportunity

For firms like IntaCapital Swiss SA, the significance of expanded oil production is not merely theoretical; it directly influences transaction demand. The global oil and refined products sector is characterised by:

  • High-value spot and forward trades
  • Allocation-based offtake agreements
  • Refinery output contracts
  • Shipping and storage operations
  • Letters of credit utilisation
  • Collateralised performance obligations
  • Intermediated allocation structures

Where barrels are moving, there is demand for:

  1. Allocation funding
  2. Performance bonds
  3. Trade finance lines
  4. Collateral transfer facilities
  5. Warehouse & shipping finance
  6. Refinery output pre-financing
  7. Syndicated export structures
  8. Commodity-backed funding instruments

Historically, energy traders and allocation holders have faced funding gaps due to collateral requirements, KYC/AML scrutiny, or misalignment between banking risk appetites and commodity settlement cycles. Structured private capital has filled that gap — and continues to do so globally. Expansion in upstream production directly increases this flow, creating a larger universe of transactions requiring structured funding and credit enhancement.

Why ESG Capital Boycotts Created a Funding Vacuum

Over the last five years, major banks and sovereign funds adopted stringent ESG restrictions on hydrocarbon investments. While politically fashionable, this capital withdrawal has created a financing scarcity that private lenders, hedge funds, commodity houses, and structured intermediaries are now exploiting.

The irony is unavoidable:

  • Oil demand increases
  • Oil supply is constrained
  • Capital is restricted from upstream investment
  • Price volatility rises
  • Private capital steps in at a premium

Far from eliminating oil, ESG has made oil more profitable for those willing to fund it. For financing firms who understand the sector, this environment has created attractive margins, strong collateralisation structures, and heightened demand from credible counterparties seeking allocation funding or offtake financing.

The Global South Will Drive Oil Demand, Not the West

Another misconception often embedded in Western policy discourse is the assumption that energy demand patterns are uniform across the globe. They are not. Over the next 25 years, population growth and middle-class expansion in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East will drive incremental consumption of:

  • Diesel
  • Jet fuel
  • Marine bunker fuel
  • Chemicals and plastics
  • Fertilisers
  • Asphalt
  • Petrochemicals

Even if OECD nations reach aggressive EV penetration and renewable diversification targets, the Global South is only beginning its industrial build-out. This difference is not ideological; it is demographic and developmental. The global oil industry will therefore not contract — it will re-centre.

Conclusion: Expanded Oil Production Is Rational, Beneficial & Bankable

The “Drill Baby Drill” energy thesis is not a relic of the past. It is an economically rational, strategically necessary, industrially indispensable, and financially attractive proposition anchored in material demand. The global economy still runs on hydrocarbons, and it will continue to do so for decades. Transition will occur — but it will not eliminate the need for oil; it will simply change the demand profile.

For companies involved in the sector — from upstream production to trading, refining, shipping, allocation management and distribution — the implication is clear: the real bottleneck is not rhetoric, it is capital.

Funding Oil Transactions — IntaCapital Swiss SA

IntaCapital Swiss SA facilitates structured financing for credible oil and refined product transactions globally. We support:

  • Allocation funding
  • Performance bonding & collateral transfer
  • Refinery & pre-export financing
  • Offtake funding
  • Collateral-enhanced trade finance structures

Applicants seeking oil transaction funding, allocation financing, or credit enhancement are invited to present their proposal for review, including:

  • Allocation or supply documentation
  • ICPO, SPA, or equivalent
  • Transaction flow structure
  • Counterparty details
  • Required financial instruments or facilities

To discuss funding options in confidence, contact our transaction structuring team.

Outlook for Crude Oil 2026

Many experts and observers in the crude oil arena are forecasting an oversupply in 2026, leading to an oil glut driven by rising supply and weaker demand. 

Price Forecast and Supply Glut

Analysts suggest that the price of Brent Crude will average US$58 bbl (1 barrel). In Q1 of 2026, as the glut gets larger, the price will gradually fall to US$52 bbl and end the year at US$50 bbl, giving an average price for the year of US$55 bbl. 

Indeed, the IEA (International Energy Authority) has estimated that there will be a record oil glut or surplus (estimated at 4 million b/pd – barrels per day) next year, with demand growth remaining subdued as OPEC+* continues to revive supplies.

*OPEC+ – is short for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations and is a coalition of 23 oil-producing countries, of which the full members are Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. There are a further 10 non-OPEC Partner Countries that form the OPEC+ and make up the DoC (Declaration of Cooperation), consisting of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan. The whole group’s modus operandi is to cooperate to influence the global oil market and stabilise prices.

The Market’s Muted Response to Geopolitical Risk

Several experts have voiced surprise at the lack of volatility in the crude oil market in 2025, despite the many supply and geopolitical risks. Key events such as Russian oil sanctions, plus Israeli and the United States strikes on Iran, had many analysts expecting major volatility given the potential to lose Iranian oil supplies. However, the market showed a complete lack of volatility, and Brent even had a small but brief rally, hitting US$80 bbl. Experts suggest that there is fatigue within the market, especially after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, so volatile market reactions to explosive geopolitical tensions appear to have been muted. It is therefore being predicted that with a market glut continuing into 2026 and the large amount of spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, there will be little impact on oil supplies, with prices falling as mentioned above.

OPEC+’s Strategic Shift

In April, OPEC+ shifted its strategy from supporting high oil prices through production cuts to increasing output to regain market share from non-OPEC+ producers such as Brazil, Guyana, and the United States. Indeed, the market was taken by surprise when a series of production increases added a total increase of 2.9 billion b/pd, contributing to the downward pressure on prices, which, as stated above, is expected to keep going south well into 2026. 

Experts say the policy shift was driven by several external factors, including diplomatic pressure from the White House and unexpected geopolitical events such as the Iran–Israel war and sanctions on Russian oil. The later sanctioning of major Russian producers Lukoil* and Rosneft** also provided an unexpected buffer against a sharper price collapse.

*Lukoil – Engages in the exploration, production, refining, marketing and distribution of oil and gas in both Russian and international markets. Lukoil is owned by private shareholders, with its founder, Vagit Alekperov, holding circa 28.3%.

**Rosneft – A vertically integrated energy company specialising in the exploration, production, refining, transportation, and sale of petroleum, petroleum products and LNG. The Russian Government owns circa 40.4% of the company, with the QIA (Qatar Investment Authority) also owning a significant stake.

Demand and The Fiscal Breakeven Point

Analysts suggest that in 2026, there will be a modest increase in oil demand at circa 800 b/pd, which is expected to be driven by non-OECD (Organisation for Co-operation and Economic Development) countries, especially Asia, which is calculated to make up 50% of demand, whilst China’s demand is expected to be under 200 b/pd. 

In effect, many analysts and commentators agree that 2026 will be a challenging year for oil prices due to overwhelming supply, with large surpluses potentially building, unless OPEC+ makes significant production cuts or geopolitical events disrupt supply chains. Another factor to consider is how long OPEC+ nations are willing to tolerate low oil prices. With an average price of USD $55 per barrel forecast for 2026 and Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even at around USD $90 per barrel, any decision to cut production could put upward pressure on prices later in the year.