Iran Archives

IEA Declares Largest Ever Global Oil Supply Disruption

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 15, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Headquartered in Paris, France, the IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently declared that the current Middle East Crisis is responsible for the creation of what will most likely be the largest supply disruption the global oil market has ever encountered. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is eroding the current oil surplus, and it is forcing energy producers and exporters within the Persian Gulf to cut output.

Officials from the IEA have estimated that the current US/Iran/Israel conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 Million/bls a day this month, and they went on to confirm that overall exports of crude oil and other products through the Strait of Hormuz are already down by circa 90%. Original predictions by the IEA for 2026 was for a record oil glut/surplus, these have now been dramatically reduced. As of Wednesday last week, the IEA announced that members (32 OECD* nations) had approved to let go 400 Million/bls from emergency reserves.

*OECD – Based in Paris, France the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is an international forum of 38, mostly industrialised countries that promote policies to improve economic and social well-being worldwide. Founded in 1961, it acts as a knowledge-based organisation developing standards and research to improve trade, financial stability and public policy.

Despite output losses from the Persian gulf being slightly set off by increased production from non-OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), the IEA has said that the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be felt well beyond the time that the Strait is reopened. Sadly, consumers in many countries around the world will be forced to endure for many months, maybe years, higher prices for food, petrol and diesel, airline flights, restaurants and many other day-to-day purchases.

Central Banks who have Kept Interest Rates Steady Despite the Iranian Conflict

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 15, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Two months ago, on February 28^th the United States and Israel launched a major military campaign against Iran, which after thirty 39 days came to a halt (on 7th April 2026) so peace talks could take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. The US delegation to Islamabad was led by Vice President J.D. Vance who yesterday announced, after 21 hours of talks, that negotiations with the Iranians had sadly failed.

However, since the conflict began, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil is shipped. During this time, the price of oil has shot up and down on the back of President Trump’s announcements, usually on his media outlet, Truth Social. Currently, jet fuel prices per the European Benchmark have more than doubled, rising from a pre-conflict price of $831/tonne to a closing price of $1,838/tonne on Friday, April 3rd. Similarly, the benchmark Brent Crude oil price has surged from approximately $70/bbl before the conflict to peaks exceeding $119/bbl. It currently sits at $102.22/bbl, following a closing price of $95.20/bbl on Friday the 26th.

Oil prices are now well above pre-conflict prices and as such, inflation is at the forefront of thoughts of policymakers at central banks across the globe. The recent failure of peace talks between Iran and the United States has resulted in the increased attention to inflation in the bond markets where, according to experts, the expectation is there will be no movement downward in interest rates but they will stay higher for longer. Many experts are suggesting that if the conflict carries on for much longer, and as increased energy prices are reflected in CPI (consumer price index), central banks may have to increase interest rates to battle rising inflation. Last week’s data released revealed that in the US there was the steepest advance in consumer prices for nearly four years.

However, last week a number of central banks had policy meetings where interest rates were kept on hold despite the conflict as can be seen below:

New Zealand

On Wednesday 8^th April 2026, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the RBNZ (Royal Bank of New Zealand) kept the Benchmark OCR (Official Cash Rate) at 2.25% with officials noting, “If the increase in near term inflation is largely temporary, the committee envisages gradually moving the OCR to more neutral levels as activity recovers and near term inflation dissipates. However, any signs of significant second round inflation expectations would require decisive and timely increases in the OCR to re-anchor inflation expectations. The committee is vigilant to these risks”.

Local economists and analysts suggest that headline inflation will hit 4.50% by June/July this year, outstripping the RBNZ’s target of 1% – 3% for 2026. The Governor of the RBNZ, Anna Breman, said that the MPC had discussed the possibility of a “relatively early” increase in interest rates. However, she later advised that committee members were not close to enforcing such a measure at this time.

South Korea

On Friday 10^th April 2026, the MPB (Monetary Policy Board) of the BOK (Bank of Korea), by a unanimous decision, held its Benchmark Seven-Day Repurchase Rate steady at 2.50%. The BOK Governor Rhee Chang Yong issued a warning that due to the United States/Iran conflict, inflation may outpace this year’s forecast as the economy is threatened with a bigger supply shock than was seen after Ukraine was invaded by Russia.

Governor Rhee warned that it was too early to make any substantial policy decisions and will hold off from adjusting rates whilst waiting to see if the supply shock proves temporary or not. Officials have advised that following the failure of US/Iran peace talks, the bank has adopted a cautious stance of monitoring whilst maintaining steady interest rates amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty.

Peru

On Thursday 9^th April 2026, the Consejo de Politica Monetaria/MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the BCRP (The Central Reserve Bank of Peru) left its Benchmark Reference Interest Rate steady at 4.25% for the seventh straight month. Officials noted after the meeting, that policymakers were of the opinion that the previous month’s surge in inflation would only be of a temporary nature.

Officials went on to say, “it is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy (underlying inflation) will return to the target range towards the end of the year and settle around 2.00% as the effects of supply shocks gradually dissipate”. Among emerging market economies, Peru has one of the lowest interest rates and despite on-going political turmoil enjoys one of the more stable economies and currencies amongst Latin American countries.

Kenya

On Wednesday April 8^th 2026, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) held their Benchmark Central Bank Interest Rate (CBR) at 8.75% finally ending a two year easing cycle. Analysts advise that the CBK’s mid-point target range for inflation is 5.00% and inflation currently remains below that figure, despite ticking up to 4.40%.

In a statement following the meeting, the Governor of CBK Kamau Thugge noted, “The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains, leading to significantly higher energy prices and heightened risks to the global economic outlook”. The Governor also noted that likeminded central banks in the region (including South Africa) have paused monetary policy decisions whilst awaiting the outcome of the current Middle East conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel.

Governor Thugge went on to say that helped by appropriate monetary policy actions, inflation is expected to remain within the target range of 2.50% – 7.50%, and he further expected food prices to be stable due predicted good weather and a stable exchange rate. However, analysts warn that due to the consequences of the Iran/US conflict, prices of fuel and food may well rise, testing the upper limits of a 2.50% – 7.50% inflation band.

Romania

On Tuesday 7^th April 2026, the NBR Board (Board of the National Bank of Romania – monetary policy committee) of the BNR (Banca Nationala a Romaniei) kept its Benchmark Monetary Policy Rate* on hold at, and for the thirteenth time since October 2024 , at 6.50%. Officials also advised that that the NBR had left unchanged the Deposit Facticity Rate**at 5.50% and the Lending Facility Rate*** at 7.50%

*Monetary Policy Rate – The main benchmark interest rate for 1-week repo operations which guides interbank market rates.

**Lending Facility Rate (Lombard) – The rate used by the central bank to provide overnight liquidity to banks.

***Deposit Facility Rate – The rate at which banks can deposit excess funds with the central bank

Officials noted after the meeting that, “ High uncertainties and risks to the outlook for economic activity, implicitly the medium-term inflation developments, arise however from the Middle East war and the on-going energy crisis, via the effects potentially exerted through multiple channels on consumer purchasing power, as well as firm’s activity and profits, also by affecting the dynamics of economies and inflation in Europe/Worldwide and the risk perception towards the region, with an impact on financing costs”. Put simply, along with many other central banks, rates are left on hold as the world awaits the outcome of the on-going crisis in the Middle East.

Analysts suggest, as does the above cross-section of central banks, that interest rates are being kept on hold until the on-going conflict between Iran/US becomes clearer. Or in some countries if inflation had spiked dramatically interest rates may well be increased. Financial markets are waiting to see what interest rate decisions will be made by the Federal Reserve, the BOE (Bank of England) and the ECB (European Central Bank) on 29^th – 30^th April 2026 respectively.

United States, Israel and Iran Agree to Temporary Ceasefire

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 8, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

A two week temporary ceasefire in the current Middle East hostilities has been agreed, but only one hour before President Donalds Trump’s deadline where he had promised to obliterate Iran. The ceasefire, which was brokered by Pakistan, includes a 10-point plan with Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz whilst on-going peace talks continue. As a result, oil fell below $100pbl, with Brent crude falling by as much as 16% to trade within a range of $93pbl – $95pbl. West Texas Intermediate also fell to around the $95pbl mark.

Those close to the agreement have advised that the 10-point peace plan includes:

An end to attacks on Iran and its allies
Continued control by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz
All primary and secondary sanctions on Iran to be lifted
US military withdrawal from the Middle East
The release of all frozen Iranian assets
Iran and Oman to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (USD 2 million per ship)

Interestingly, the above points are also in Farsi, however that document includes the words “acceptance of enrichment” for their nuclear plan, which for whatever reason was left out of the English version. According to a statement issued by state media, Iran will only accept an end to hostilities if the final version of the peace plan incorporates the above demands. Some of these demands have been rejected by the White House in the past, however President Trump said the 10-point peace plan was a “workable basis on which to negotiate”.

However, a number of experts have advised that the United States are unlikely to agree with some of Iran’s demands, and Democratic Senator Chris Murphy noted that with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, it would be “cataclysmic for the world”. The office of the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netan, advised that Israel has backed the decision to temporarily cease hostilities with Iran, however, the ceasefire does not include Israel’s current hostilities with Lebanon.

Experts and analysts suggest that whilst the President sees a framework to discuss a permanent ceasefire, they cannot see the United States agreeing to allow Iran to continue with nuclear enrichment. Political commentators advise that the temporary ceasefire has let President Trump “off the hook” in regard to his promise to obliterate Iran. They also note that one of the cornerstones of the attack on Iran was to get rid of the current leadership and return the country to a democratic government.

Sadly, this has not happened, in fact, nothing has really changed. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) remains the dominant force, and the old guard leadership that has essentially been wiped out has been replaced by more extreme figures. Furthermore, it should be remembered that the IRGC controls 50% of all the income from Iran’s energy exports, so if all sanctions are lifted and all assets unfrozen, this will make them even stronger.

Experts say that if any agreement is reached it will surely be a hollow victory at best for President Trump, and how this will play out in the US with the mid-terms looming could end up being totally catastrophic for the Republican party. The only other option is a resumption of hostilities, which will be a nightmare for those peace-loving citizens of Iran, and the economic and social repercussions on the rest of the world do not bear thinking about.

How Does Today’s Oil Crisis Compare to that of the Early 1970’s

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 8, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Current Impact on Consumers

As a result of the United States/Israel/Iran war the world is now reeling from a global energy shock with prices of gas, electricity and fuel at the petrol pumps all hitting the consumer where it hurts, in the pocket! In the United Kingdom, diesel prices at the pumps before the war started were circa 134p per litre, whereas today they are circa 185p per litre and rising. On the intercity motorway’s, diesel is being offered in some cases at even 200p per litre. In the EU (European Union), commentators advise that Brussels are drawing up plans for potential rationing of jet fuel and/or diesel with officials stressing that these are just emergency plans.

Lessons from the 1973 Embargo

The oil crisis back in the early 70’s was fundamentally different to the crisis the world is facing today, but the potential outcome of today’s crisis is essentially the same: It could trigger a global financial and economic crisis. The crisis began in 1973 when OAPEC* members imposed an oil embargo on the United States and other nations who were supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The result was the quadrupling of oil prices, severe shortages and rationing that consumed the countries involved. When the embargo was lifted in March 1974, there were economic recessions, massive inflation and major and lasting shifts in global energy policy.

*OAPEC – Founded in 1968 and stands for the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, limited to Arab oil-exporting nations. With headquarters in Kuwait the current membership includes Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the UAE (United Arab Emirates). This is a separate group from OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) which was founded in 1960, membership includes countries from Africa, the Middle East and South America.

The Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Today’s oil crisis is different from the 1970s insofar as oil, gas and fertiliser shortages are due to the current United States/Israel/Iran conflict. This has resulted in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which circa 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas is shipped. Analysts and experts in the energy and economic arenas are at loggerheads as to the potential fall-out from this crisis, but all are agreed that this war should end sooner rather than later.

Potential for Greater Economic Instability

A number of experts suggest that the fall-out from this crisis could be worse than the 1973 crisis, where both the USA and the UK suffered recessions from 1973 – 1975. In the UK, this resulted in the downfall of the Edward Heath led conservative government. One expert has suggested that currently, there could be a bigger energy shock as opposed to the early 70’s when there was a cut in oil of 5% – 7%, however, today we are looking at a global cut of circa 20%, and things will only get worse the longer the crisis goes on. Not only will there be a massive spike in oil, gas and food prices, but there will also be hikes in interest rates to combat the inevitable inflation.

Supply Chain Risks: Beyond Fuel

Currently, there is irrefutable proof of what the future may hold as jet fuel has almost doubled, which will lead to increases in airfares, prices for the consumer at the pumps for diesel and petrol have already risen, and some foodstuffs in supermarkets are already seeing an increase in prices. One third of the world’s helium flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for the production of semi-conductors or micro chips used in just about everything consumers use on a daily basis. Analysts report that the Gulf region is also central and crucial to the global fertilizer supply, and if it becomes scarce the world could also be in for a food shock to add to the on-going energy shock.

The Long Road to Recovery

Consumers and governments alike are lucky that summer is fast approaching, therefore resulting in lower heating costs to households. However, experts advise that if the war was to end tomorrow, it would take at least a year for supply lines to get back to normal, and a further year to see a reduction in prices. However, if there has been substantial damage to refineries and export outlets, then analysts suggest it could be up to five years before normality resumes.

The Limitations of Renewable Energy

Data shows that in the EU, wind and solar energy combined now outpace fossil fuel generation by 30% – 29%, and in the UK in 2024, renewables for the first time produced more than 50% of electricity. However, despite forward steps being made for renewables taking over from fossil fuels, and despite the ongoing rhetoric, the crisis in the Middle East shows that even after just five weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, there is already an energy crisis which highlights how far renewable energy still has to go. It is hoped that this conflict will end soon, otherwise, and according to experts, there could be intolerable economic hardship.

The Loss of Helium Exports Due to the Iran Crisis Will Prove Critical

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 1, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Helium is a colourless, odourless, non-flammable, non-renewable inert gas. It is commercially extracted from natural gas using fractional distillation*. As the second lightest and second most abundant element in the universe, helium has widespread applications across multiple industries and medical fields. The sudden disruption to helium exports via the Strait of Hormuz is now having a significant negative impact on the medical sector, semiconductor manufacturing, and several other critical industries.

*Fractional distillation is a laboratory and industrial process used to separate mixtures of liquids with different boiling points. In the case of helium, it involves a cryogenic process in which natural gas is cooled to extremely low temperatures. This takes advantage of helium’s exceptionally low boiling point (−268.9°C), allowing it to be separated from nitrogen, methane, and other components.

Roughly two-thirds of the world’s helium supply comes from the United States, with much of the remainder supplied by Qatar. With the Strait of Hormuz currently closed, supply lines have effectively been choked. This disruption is now threatening the production and operation of semiconductor-based technologies used in everything from automobiles and washing machines to smartphones, space systems, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Helium plays a vital role in semiconductor fabrication, particularly in cooling extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used to print microchips.

At present, around 200 helium containers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, each holding approximately 41,000 litres of liquid helium. Experts warn that the gas will gradually boil off within 35 to 48 days, rendering the shipments unusable. These containers were destined for South Korea and Taiwan, which together manufacture approximately 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Without chips, global supply chains face severe disruption. Some analysts have even highlighted the knock-on effect on defence systems, noting that modern AI-driven technologies rely heavily on semiconductor availability.

In the medical sector, the shortage of helium is already affecting hospitals and diagnostic centres worldwide. MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) machines rely on helium to cool superconducting magnets to extremely low temperatures. Current shortages are delaying refills, increasing operational costs, and threatening the continuity of MRI services. Beyond MRI systems, helium is also critical for NMR spectrometers, cryosurgery procedures, and respiratory treatments.

NMR spectrometers are used to determine molecular structures essential for research and pharmaceutical development.
Cryosurgery and cryoablation use helium’s ultra-low temperatures to freeze and destroy diseased tissue.
Respiratory medicine uses helium-oxygen mixtures (heliox) to treat severe airway obstructions.

Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum stating that the United States will withdraw from the war zone “with or without a peace deal” once Iran’s nuclear capabilities are neutralised. However, logistics experts caution that even after hostilities cease, it could take more than three months for helium supply chains to normalise. If there is significant structural damage to Qatari production facilities, shortages could persist for years.

White House officials have indicated that US military forces could begin returning home within three weeks. However, recent history suggests that such timelines are often optimistic and subject to change.

Without semiconductors, modern economies could grind to a halt. Chips underpin almost every aspect of daily life, from aviation and automotive systems to global shipping, communications, and digital infrastructure. In emerging markets, access to MRI technology is already becoming limited, and prolonged disruption could soon affect developed nations as well.

Beyond the geopolitical narrative, the helium shortage represents a critical vulnerability in global supply chains. If the conflict continues, the consequences of helium scarcity may prove more damaging than the geopolitical tensions that caused it.

On-Going Iranian War means a Farewell to Cheap Flights

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 30, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Due to the on-going Iran conflict in the Middle East, the world can say a farewell to cheap flights, especially for those wishing to connect between Asia and Europe. Recent data released shows ticket prices rocketing, up by 560% this month. According to a number of aviation experts, the world’s busiest and largest transit corridors are airports located within the Persian Gulf region, as such, prices are expected to remain elevated throughout the summer on to autumn, and likely even the Christmas period.

The disruption to flights, which began on 28^th February, has resulted in circa 70,000 flights being cancelled. This combined with rising fuel costs (jet fuel has more than doubled), reduced capacity and the shutdown of airspaces, has experts expecting elevated airfares to remain well into late November and likely into January 2027. Experts within the aviation arena suggest that price reductions to jet fuel may take a minimum of twelve weeks to work their way through to the airlines, depending on how quick supply lines become unfettered.

The disruption to the Persian Gulf corridor is reflected in prices from Hong Kong to London, where an average fare is now circa $3,318, an increase of 560% on February prices. Other examples are the Sydney to London route (AKA the Kangaroo Route) which fares are up 429% for the same period, as well as Bangkok to Frankfurt, which has spiked to $2,870 and increased by 505% for the same period. Analysts advise that jet fuel accounts for around one third of operating costs and a number of airlines have already raised fuel surcharges. Pan European flights are expected to raise prices of tickets in the near future, as jet fuel increases are passed onto customers.

The Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates on Hold

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 19, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, the FOMC voted 11–1 to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the second consecutive meeting of unchanged policy. The one dissenting vote came from Governor Stephen Miran, who called for a rate reduction of 25 basis points. Policymakers acknowledged that due to the Iranian conflict in the Middle East, they now face increased uncertainty on how this will impact the economy, with Chairman Powell stating in a post-meeting press conference, “The thing I really want to emphasise is that nobody knows.”

Inflation Outlook and Rate Cut Criteria

On the inflation front, officials have raised their outlook in 2026 from 2.40% to 2.70%, still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.00%, and analysts point to the fact that inflation figures have been above target for the last five years. Chairman Powell advised that they need to progress in reducing inflation in order to lower interest rates, saying that, “If we do not see that progress, then we won’t see the rate cut.” He went on to point to goods inflation that had increased due to tariffs, and indeed officials pointed to core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) which they also indicated will rise to 2.70%.

Energy Volatility and Meeting Deliberations

In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Powell was questioned on rising oil prices. He noted that policymakers typically look through energy spikes, as such fluctuations often have only a transient impact on long-term inflation. The Chairman also advised that the possibility of a rate hike was discussed at some stage, but was quick to point out that most members of the FOMC did not see this as their base case. As usual, President Trump had called for a rate cut, but with the current events in the Middle East and current inflation figures, this seemed hardly likely to be on the FOMC’s agenda which of course was borne out by their vote.

Market Expectations and the “Dot Plot”

Financial markets had priced in a near 100% bet that the FOMC would hold rates this time around. Currently, consensus pricing reflects a 94% to 95.7% probability of another hold at the upcoming April meeting. Experts suggest that money market sentiment will be only one more 25 basis points this year, most likely in either September or December. The FOMC uses the “Dot Plot”* as a major guide to future interest rate decisions, and currently analysts advise that consensus has shifted toward higher-for-longer with 14 of the 19 members now predicting no change or just one cut.

*Dot Plot – This is a chart that is published by the Federal Reserve that shows where each FOMC member expects interest rates to be in the future, with each dot representing one policymaker’s projection as to where the Federal Funds rate will be at the end of any given year, with the median dot receiving the most attention. Financial markets read and assess the implications of the dot chart and if the median dot shifts higher, then it may be interpreted as a hawkish stance. If it moves lower, it can be interpreted as a dovish stance.

Leadership Succession and DOJ Investigation

Finally, and in a surprising statement regarding his immediate future, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he had no intention of resigning as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors until the investigation by the DOJ (Department of Justice) into the Fed’s building renovation is over. He went on to state that his Chairmanship ends this May, and if his already presidential nominated successor (Kevin Warsh) is not confirmed by the Senate by the end of his term, he will stay on as a chair pro tempore. In the past, the Federal Reserve has approved such a nomination. As one Senator has promised to withhold his vote until the DOJ investigation is dropped, no doubt this will increase President Trump’s angst towards Chairman Powell.

Russia is Reaping the Rewards from the Iranian Conflict

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 18, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

While the U.S. and Israel continue their military operations to undermine the Iranian government, Tehran’s drone and missile capabilities remain a persistent threat to the Gulf States. With the Strait of Hormuz now largely closed to commercial shipping, the global economy faces a mounting energy crisis with no immediate resolution in sight. Oil prices continue to spike and so the White House has lifted sanctions (30 days only) on those countries who wish to buy oil from Russia, thereby enabling the Kremlin to fill their coffers and fund the on-going invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s Strategic Windfall: Market Benchmarks and Sanction Waivers

While the current international climate provides President Putin with renewed regional leverage, observers note that U.S. diplomatic maneuvers have largely foreclosed any near-term opportunity for a negotiated settlement with Russia. Data released shows that Putin is enjoying a win-double as Russian export prices have spiked thanks to the global oil benchmarks going through the roof due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict. If the conflict is not resolved soon, experts suggest that further sanctions easing could well become a reality. And indeed, the current waiver has helped clear a flotilla of tankers that are full of Russian crude oil, of which many are now heading or have arrived in India.

Friction Within the Alliance: Kyiv’s Response to U.S. Policy Shifts

Ukraine and its allies in Europe have slammed the decision by the White House to partially waive sanctions against Russia, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tanker traffic. Indeed, analysts advise that American efforts to bring the Russian/Ukraine war to end have stalled, and Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the sanctions lifting will strengthen Russia’s hand. President Zelensky went on to say, “Just this easing by America could provide Russia with around $10 Billion for the war. This certainly does not help peace.”

European Security Concerns: Diverging Perspectives in the G7

A number of European leaders have spoken out against the US administration, easing sanctions on Russia with the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, saying, “The move is very concerning as it impacts European security.” The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said, “Easing of sanctions now, for whatever reason, is wrong. We believe that is the wrong course of action, after all we want to ensure that Russia does not exploit the war in Iran to weaken Ukraine.”

Quantifying the Conflict: Fossil Fuel Revenue and Military Capacity

Experts advise that whichever way you look at it, Russia has definitely profited from the Iranian conflict, not only from the spike in oil prices but also from the 30-day waiver in sanctions on those countries buying Russian crude. A German NGO, known as the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says that Russia has so far earned circa Euros 6 Billion from fossil fuel exports since strikes on Iran began on 28^thFebruary 2026. They went on to say that current levels of earnings by Russia from fossil fuels allows them to buy circa 17,000 Shahed, 136 attack drones every 24 hours, and analysts advise that sanction waivers could push this total even higher.

The On-Going Effect of the US-Israel-Iran Conflict

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 18, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The on-going Iranian conflict is affecting many aspects of life across the globe, the most notable being the price of oil and its derivatives. The price of oil remains very volatile, a week ago today the price opened at circa $120pbl and closed at circa $81.50pbl, and today Brent Crude is trading at above $104pbl.

The knock-on effect will be felt by consumers across the globe as prices go up for heating, fuel at the pumps, food etc. Governments will be keeping a watchful eye on their own CPI (Consumer Price Index), as inflation will once again begin to rise. However, as outlined below, it’s not just the cost of crude oil that the conflict is pushing up.

Fertilizer Crisis

Fertilizer is essential for food production, however, just before spring which is many farmers’ planting season, the Iran Conflict is pushing up the cost of nitrogen products such as urea and ammonia. Urea for example is primarily used as a highly concentrated nitrogen fertilizer that promotes vigorous plant growth and has a nitrogen content of 46%, an essential tool for modern farming. Due to the current conflict, the price of Urea has surged by circa 34% to $600/T, and this together with other essential raw material will mean higher prices in the supermarkets with farmers across the globe rushing to secure critical fertilizers.

Palm Oil

Due to the on-going Iranian crisis, Palm Oil futures are now over $100pbl as prospective demand for biofuel feedstocks spike and is almost at a parity with gasoil*. Palm oil is a versatile vegetable oil found in nearly 50% of packaged supermarket products. It is also a key ingredient in cosmetics, cleaning supplies, and biofuels, and is frequently added to livestock feed, especially in the dairy industry, due to its exceptionally high energy content.

*Gasoil – (AKA red diesel or tractor diesel) is a low-duty, red-dyed fuel identical to regular road diesel but restricted to off-road industrial, agricultural and heating use. It is a middle distillate derived from crude oil refining, primarily powering machinery such as tractors, cranes and generators.

Global Food Supply

Farmers across many regions including Europe and Asia, are vulnerable to an oil and gas crunch due to the Iran conflict, and the scarcity of fuel will make it difficult to operate essential farm machinery. For example, in Bangladesh, farmers are unable to start their irrigation pumps due to the lack of diesel. In Australia, it is almost the planting season, and farmers have been advised of fuel delivery cutbacks. In the Philippines, it is predicted that fishermen and boat owners will not be able to go to sea.

Europe is also vulnerable, for example in Germany 100 litres of diesel is up by EUR 30, and in Romania, farm diesel prices have jumped about 30%. A UK farmer highlighted that existing diesel stocks will be exhausted by mid-spring. Beyond that point, agricultural operations will be forced to pay the prevailing market rate, provided that fuel supplies remain accessible.

Fuel Oil

Fuel oil powers container ships and is the backbone of globalisation, however, the price of this commodity is skyrocketing. Fuel oil is also known in the industry as the “bottom of the barrel”, and is usually cheap, flying under the radar compared to the more well-known fuels (that get distilled higher up petroleum distillation towers) such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

The shipping industry is now sounding the alarm as it’s not only the price of fuel oil that is worrying, some of the key ports across the globe may run out of stock forcing bulk carriers and container ships to halt in their tracks. Recent data released shows that fuel oil in two of the top three bunkering locations (Fujairah UAE and Singapore) are beginning to run very low on stocks. If the conflict continues for a couple months, fuel oil will become a major problem.

Conclusion

Analysts warn that if geopolitical tensions are not resolved swiftly, the global cost-of-living crisis will intensify, potentially causing inflation to become entrenched across G7 economies once again. This means that central banks may be forced to increase interest rates, thereby increasing the cost of borrowing, energy and food, which will be very hard on consumers.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Hikes Interest Rates

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 17, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Today, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.85% to 4.10%, with the nine-member policy committee voting by 5 – 4 in a split decision. In 2023, officials delivered three rate cuts, and today’s first back-to-back rate hike since 2023 reverses two of those three cuts. After the vote, Governor Michelle Bullock advised that the Iranian conflict in the Middle East represented part of the decision to hike rates, but pointed out that prices still remained too high.

The Deputy Governor of the RBA, Andrew Hauser, has already echoed the Governor’s words in a statement last week when he advised that price rises driven by the Iranian conflict would not be helpful in combating inflation. Experts suggest that a rise in interest rates was on the cards, and perhaps the on-going conflict in the Middle East fuelled the debate as to whether to hike interest rates now or at the next policy meeting.

In February this year, officials from the RBA had forecasted that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) would peak at 4.2%, this was partly based on the technical assumption that crude oil would remain at circa $63.8pbl through to 2028, but today, Brent Crude is trading between $103pbl – $104pbl. However, the Treasurer of Australia, Mr James Chalmers, has announced that he anticipates inflation rising to 4.5% and that households can expect increased cost of living expenses. Today, he went on to say that Australia already had an inflation challenge, but the war in the Middle East is making this challenge worse.

Many experts and analysts are expecting another 25-basis point hike in May, and if the Iranian conflict is still going on and oil surpasses the $150pbl mark, the increase could be even higher. Elsewhere in Indonesia, BI (Bank Indonesia) held its benchmark interest rate (BI-Rate) at 4.75% marking a continued stance of stability amid the on-going Middle East conflict and other geopolitical and geo-economic unrest. However, the Middle East conflict has brought Asia and South East Asia to the forefront of the oil crisis and only time will tell how their economies will react.