UAE to Leave OPEC
A historic departure and strategic vision
The UAE (United Arab Emirates) recently announced that after sixty years of membership the country has left OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OPEC+* on May 1st 2026, saying the decision to leave the two oil cartels will allow them greater flexibility to charter their own path under their long-term strategic and economic vision. Furthermore, the UAE had threatened to quit the cartels in the past, due to longstanding tensions between themselves and Saudi Arabia.
*OPEC+ – Short for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations, and is a coalition of 23 oil producing countries of which the full members are Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. There are a further 10 non-OPEC Partner Countries that form the OPEC+ and make up the DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) and consist of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan. The whole group’s modus operandi is to cooperate on influencing the global oil market and stabilise prices.
Reserving the right to increase output
The UAE is not the first member to exit; Indonesia departed in 2016, followed by Qatar in 2019, Ecuador in 2020, and Angola in 2024. While various experts and oil commentators repeatedly predicted the demise of OPEC, the organization has proven resilient, continuing its operations largely unaffected. However, the UAE is on a different level to those countries who previously departed, wanting to increase the output of oil. With the geological backing on its side, the country has the finances to turn their ambitions into reality. Some observers suggest that leaving OPEC is due to the current Iranian crisis and the on-going closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but there are many observers who disagree with this.
Decades of tension over pricing and quotas
Many experts suggest that whilst the UAE has been majorly taken aback by the attacks by the Iranian regime, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the move to quit the cartel started nearly ten years ago. Experts say that the reasoning boils down to the price of crude oil, which the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been at loggerheads for over a decade, and over OPEC’s direction. Both Saudi and Russia have wanted to keep the price as close to $100 p/bbl, which meant at times curbing output, whilst the UAE, at the risk of lower prices, wanted to increase output. This argument was kept under wraps until July 2021, when at an OPEC+ meeting the divisions boiled over into the public domain.
The shift from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi’s autonomy
The clash between the two oil producers caused the meeting to be adjourned for two days, until Abu Dhabi eventually retreated from their stance under massive pressure from Riyadh. Experts advise that the UAE has never forgotten this humiliating experience and are perhaps using the current Iranian conflict as a front to leave the cartel. They are in reality leaving to produce more oil, which is against the express wishes and interests of Saudi Arabia. The authorities in Abu Dhabi have been quick to calm any nerves within the energy market, promising to act responsibly by bringing additional output in a measured and gradual manner.
Weakening OPEC’s global market influence
Analysts point out that without the barrels from the UAE, OPEC’s global market share will fall below 30% for the first time as the UAE’s was OPEC’s third largest producer and second highest spare production capacity. Indeed, OPEC loses circa 15% of its total capacity, severely weakening its position and ability to adjust and set global prices. OPEC’s share of global oil production has been slowly declining due to the rise of US shale. Some analysts feel that now Abu Dhabi has left the cartel, other nations may follow, looking to capitalise on the current heightened price of oil.
Standing alone: The path forward
In the end, experts believe that the UAE did not need OPEC, and their production was already in excess of OPEC quotas before the current conflict. Officials in Abu Dhabi have long felt the direction taken by OPEC was more to favour Saudi needs than to serve the needs of its members. The UAE has spent years in expanding its production capacity and is now ready to stand alone, dropping the shackles of OPEC, increasing total exports which may well see the dropping in prices in the medium term.
