Will the Price of Oil Hit $200 Per Barrel?
Earlier in the year a number of energy commentators were hinting at a potential price of $200 and above for a barrel of oil if the USA/Iran/Israel conflict continued into June. However, it’s the second week of June and Brent Crude is sitting at $90.54 p/bl, and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is currently sitting at $93.09 p/bl. The price of crude oil has largely been suppressed to below the $100 – $120 mark despite the Middle East crisis, which has shut the Strait of Hormuz where circa 20 million barrels of oil flow daily — being roughly 20% of global demand.
The conflict started on February 28th, just over three months ago, so why has the global economic catastrophe predicted by a number of traders, oil executives, analysts and experts not appeared in the form of $200 plus per barrel of oil? Analysts advise that the economic shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has to some extent been nullified by a drop in demand by China, record exports from the United States, a trickle of oil export sneaking through the strait, the Saudi Arabian pipeline*, to the Red Sea and a pre-war surplus.
Saudi Arabian pipeline – This pipeline is known as the Petroline and stretches for 746 miles from the Abqaiq oil fields in the eastern province (close to Bahrain and Qatar on the Persian Gulf coast) to the port city Yanbu on the west coast by the Red Sea. The pipeline was built during the 1980’s allowing Saudi Arabian oil exports to bypass the tanker war in the Persian Gulf, which was a result of the war between Iran and Iraq. The pipeline serves as a strategic and critical lifeline not only to Saudi Arabia but to the global economy and is currently pumping 7 million barrels a day, which is the pipeline’s maximum capacity.
One of the big surprises has been China, who up until 28th February were the world’s largest importer of crude oil, and according to data released, the government has slashed oil imports by circa 40%. Analysts have estimated that the reduction in oil imports by China is offsetting roughly 1/3 – 1/5 of the barrels that have been lost due to the US/Iran/Israel conflict. To compensate for cuts in crude imports, China’s refineries are processing oil from strategic and commercial stockpiles which analysts estimate to be around 1.4 billion barrels. Furthermore, the country is relying on increased domestic shale oil extraction and forcing petrochemical plants to deplete their own reserves.
The United States has also proved pivotal in keeping the price of crude oil down, as May figures show that American crude and fuel exports were in excess of 2 million barrels per day, higher than the average for the whole of 2025. Indeed, U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high of 5.6 million bpd (barrels per day), whilst combined exports of crude and refined petroleum products/ fuel hit circa 9 – 10 million bpd. Elsewhere, governments from around the world have coordinated the release of strategic reserves, Qatar it is suggested is using “Dark Fleet”* operations and other Persian Gulf exporters e.g., the UAE, are rerouting shipments through alternative export routes.
*The Dark Fleet – Is a large clandestine network of aging oil tankers, shell companies and maritime service providers that operate outside international regulations to transport sanctioned oil primarily from Iran, Russia and until recently Venezuela and now allegedly Qatar. Experts and analysts estimate the fleet to be roughly in the region of 1,470 tankers that use deceptive practices such as disabled tracking systems, forged documentation and ship-to-ship transfers in open waters that enable them to bypass international sanctions.
Despite recent rhetoric emanating from the White House suggesting talks with Iran are on-going and peace is in sight, today, any compromise deal let alone peace seems to be miles apart, with Iran’s weaponised plutonium being at the heart of any negotiations. Many experts are saying that the current global strategy of keeping oil prices suppressed is unsustainable, and if China comes back into the market, prices will only move higher. A speedy end to the conflict will certainly help as this would allow for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however, some analysts note that if the war is still blazing in September, perhaps $200 p/bl could well become a reality by the end of 2026 or early 2027.
