Russia is Reaping the Rewards from the Iranian Conflict
While the U.S. and Israel continue their military operations to undermine the Iranian government, Tehran’s drone and missile capabilities remain a persistent threat to the Gulf States. With the Strait of Hormuz now largely closed to commercial shipping, the global economy faces a mounting energy crisis with no immediate resolution in sight. Oil prices continue to spike and so the White House has lifted sanctions (30 days only) on those countries who wish to buy oil from Russia, thereby enabling the Kremlin to fill their coffers and fund the on-going invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s Strategic Windfall: Market Benchmarks and Sanction Waivers
While the current international climate provides President Putin with renewed regional leverage, observers note that U.S. diplomatic maneuvers have largely foreclosed any near-term opportunity for a negotiated settlement with Russia. Data released shows that Putin is enjoying a win-double as Russian export prices have spiked thanks to the global oil benchmarks going through the roof due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict. If the conflict is not resolved soon, experts suggest that further sanctions easing could well become a reality. And indeed, the current waiver has helped clear a flotilla of tankers that are full of Russian crude oil, of which many are now heading or have arrived in India.
Friction Within the Alliance: Kyiv’s Response to U.S. Policy Shifts
Ukraine and its allies in Europe have slammed the decision by the White House to partially waive sanctions against Russia, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tanker traffic. Indeed, analysts advise that American efforts to bring the Russian/Ukraine war to end have stalled, and Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the sanctions lifting will strengthen Russia’s hand. President Zelensky went on to say, “Just this easing by America could provide Russia with around $10 Billion for the war. This certainly does not help peace.”
European Security Concerns: Diverging Perspectives in the G7
A number of European leaders have spoken out against the US administration, easing sanctions on Russia with the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, saying, “The move is very concerning as it impacts European security.” The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said, “Easing of sanctions now, for whatever reason, is wrong. We believe that is the wrong course of action, after all we want to ensure that Russia does not exploit the war in Iran to weaken Ukraine.”
Quantifying the Conflict: Fossil Fuel Revenue and Military Capacity
Experts advise that whichever way you look at it, Russia has definitely profited from the Iranian conflict, not only from the spike in oil prices but also from the 30-day waiver in sanctions on those countries buying Russian crude. A German NGO, known as the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says that Russia has so far earned circa Euros 6 Billion from fossil fuel exports since strikes on Iran began on 28th February 2026. They went on to say that current levels of earnings by Russia from fossil fuels allows them to buy circa 17,000 Shahed, 136 attack drones every 24 hours, and analysts advise that sanction waivers could push this total even higher.
