Iran Archives

Will the Price of Oil Hit $200 Per Barrel?

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on June 10, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Earlier in the year a number of energy commentators were hinting at a potential price of $200 and above for a barrel of oil if the USA/Iran/Israel conflict continued into June. However, it’s the second week of June and Brent Crude is sitting at $90.54 p/bl, and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is currently sitting at $93.09 p/bl. The price of crude oil has largely been suppressed to below the $100 – $120 mark despite the Middle East crisis, which has shut the Strait of Hormuz where circa 20 million barrels of oil flow daily — being roughly 20% of global demand.

The conflict started on February 28^th, just over three months ago, so why has the global economic catastrophe predicted by a number of traders, oil executives, analysts and experts not appeared in the form of $200 plus per barrel of oil? Analysts advise that the economic shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has to some extent been nullified by a drop in demand by China, record exports from the United States, a trickle of oil export sneaking through the strait, the Saudi Arabian pipeline*, to the Red Sea and a pre-war surplus.

Saudi Arabian pipeline – This pipeline is known as the Petroline and stretches for 746 miles from the Abqaiq oil fields in the eastern province (close to Bahrain and Qatar on the Persian Gulf coast) to the port city Yanbu on the west coast by the Red Sea. The pipeline was built during the 1980’s allowing Saudi Arabian oil exports to bypass the tanker war in the Persian Gulf, which was a result of the war between Iran and Iraq. The pipeline serves as a strategic and critical lifeline not only to Saudi Arabia but to the global economy and is currently pumping 7 million barrels a day, which is the pipeline’s maximum capacity.

One of the big surprises has been China, who up until 28^th February were the world’s largest importer of crude oil, and according to data released, the government has slashed oil imports by circa 40%. Analysts have estimated that the reduction in oil imports by China is offsetting roughly 1/3 – 1/5 of the barrels that have been lost due to the US/Iran/Israel conflict. To compensate for cuts in crude imports, China’s refineries are processing oil from strategic and commercial stockpiles which analysts estimate to be around 1.4 billion barrels. Furthermore, the country is relying on increased domestic shale oil extraction and forcing petrochemical plants to deplete their own reserves.

The United States has also proved pivotal in keeping the price of crude oil down, as May figures show that American crude and fuel exports were in excess of 2 million barrels per day, higher than the average for the whole of 2025. Indeed, U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high of 5.6 million bpd (barrels per day), whilst combined exports of crude and refined petroleum products/ fuel hit circa 9 – 10 million bpd. Elsewhere, governments from around the world have coordinated the release of strategic reserves, Qatar it is suggested is using “Dark Fleet”* operations and other Persian Gulf exporters e.g., the UAE, are rerouting shipments through alternative export routes.

*The Dark Fleet – Is a large clandestine network of aging oil tankers, shell companies and maritime service providers that operate outside international regulations to transport sanctioned oil primarily from Iran, Russia and until recently Venezuela and now allegedly Qatar. Experts and analysts estimate the fleet to be roughly in the region of 1,470 tankers that use deceptive practices such as disabled tracking systems, forged documentation and ship-to-ship transfers in open waters that enable them to bypass international sanctions.

Despite recent rhetoric emanating from the White House suggesting talks with Iran are on-going and peace is in sight, today, any compromise deal let alone peace seems to be miles apart, with Iran’s weaponised plutonium being at the heart of any negotiations. Many experts are saying that the current global strategy of keeping oil prices suppressed is unsustainable, and if China comes back into the market, prices will only move higher. A speedy end to the conflict will certainly help as this would allow for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however, some analysts note that if the war is still blazing in September, perhaps $200 p/bl could well become a reality by the end of 2026 or early 2027.

Fallout From the Middle East War Triggers Aluminium Crisis

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 22, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The Aluminium “Black Swan Event”

Analysts confirm that the global aluminium market will face a “Black Swan Event “in 2026, as continued conflict in the Middle East between the United States, Iran and Israel is triggering a supply shock. Experts point out that the Persian Gulf exporters account for circa 7 Million tonnes of smelted aluminium per annum, which is equivalent to circa 9.00% of global production per annum. Indeed, on the LME (London Metal Exchange) on April 16^th this month, prices reached a four year record high of $3,673 per ton due to concerns in supply disruption.

*Black Swan Event – This is a highly unpredictable event which can have severe consequences, however in retrospect, they often seem fairly obvious. Examples of a “Black Swan Event” are the Global Financial Crisis 2007 – 2009, the Dot Com bubble and the Covid-19 pandemic. In the case of the global aluminium market, analysts are calling it the largest single supply shock to any base metal this century.

Market Deficits and Regional Vulnerability

Analysts suggest that between now and the end of the year, the global aluminium market will face a deficit of circa 2 million tons, however, this may be a conservative estimation as increased shortages will be dependent on the length of the Middle East crisis, which has currently entered its 53^rd day. Experts advise that Europe and the United States are particularly vulnerable due to current low stocks with the Middle East, accounting for 22% the USA’s 3.4 million tons of imported primary and alloyed aluminium, and 18.50% of Europe’s imported 1.20 million tons of the same.

Supply Chain Limitations and Global Alternatives

Unfortunately, analysts suggest that there are few alternatives to fill the void left by the US/China/Israel conflict, as a serious amount of the metal quoted on the LME is of Russian origin, which has been sanctioned by western governments and is therefore untouchable. China is the world’s largest producer with an annual capacity of 45 million tons, however, their exports consist largely of sheet, rods and billets as opposed to speciality alloys and primary aluminium that western companies/fabricators require.

The Energy Cost Barrier

It has been suggested that idle smelters that have been mothballed both in Europe and the United States be restarted, however the cost of energy is going through the roof due to the Middle East crisis.With aluminium smelting facilities being highly energy intensive, bringing back idle smelters to production is a non-starter. Companies thinking about obtaining Russian aluminium would find a political minefield, especially as western governments are not in the mood to finance the Russian war machine.

Industrial Impacts: Automotive and EV Production

The effect of the aluminium shortage is seeping through to industry dependent sectors, such as the automotive industry where car makers are facing a dire scarcity of specialised alloys for engine components and wheels. Some companies are predicting production cuts by the end of the Q2, and the EV market which is highly dependent on aluminium, is facing cuts in production of up to 11.00% which will inevitably lead to job losses.

Construction, Consumer Packaging, and Demand Destruction

Elsewhere in the construction and infrastructure sectors, increased aluminium costs are impacting construction budgets across the board, whilst data centres and healthcare construction facilities are facing budget uncertainty. In the consumer packaging sector which includes aluminium bottles, food containers and beverage cans, the arena is facing severe supply disruptions. Firms are struggling to secure supplies due to material shortages and rising premiums which is causing what is known as “demand destruction”.*

*Demand Destruction – This is a permanent or long-term decline in the consumption of a commodity or product, driven by prolonged high prices or severely constrained supply. It represents a structural shift where consumers switch to alternatives, adopt efficiency measures, or permanently alter habits, rather than a temporary dip in purchasing.

Economic Outlook and Consumer Impact

As with the export of crude and its offshoots from the Persian Gulf, experts predict that the price of aluminium will remain elevated due to the time it will take to get supplies of the metal back to normal. Once again, the consumer will bear the brunt of this damaging war whether through the increase in prices of household energy bills and the price of fuel at the pumps, or through the negative impact on jobs as companies cut staff due lack of available commodities.

Volatility Knock-Out Options are Back in Demand

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 22, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

After the invasion of Iran by the United States and Israel on February 28^th this year, the conflict has introduced high energy shocks and what some commentators might suggest as political disinformation, which has produced geopolitical upheaval resulting in financial markets becoming extremely volatile. Increased uncertainty has boosted demand for risk-management tools, specifically volatility driven instruments, hence the return of “Volatility Knock-out Options”.

Volatility Knock-Out Options or VKOs as they are usually referred to, are specialised cost-effective derivative instruments, typically “Put-Options”*, that become void if the underlying asset’s realized volatility exceeds a predetermined level during the life of the option. They are designed for “Buy and Hold” hedgers seeking lower premiums, cutting costs by up to 40% compared to standard vanilla puts exploiting the steepness of implied volatility skew**.

*Put Option – This is a financial contract giving the holder the right but not the obligation to sell an underlying asset (e.g., equities, commodities, currencies) at a set price, (the Strike Price) within a specific timeframe. It acts as a bearish bet or insurance increasing in value as the underlying asset’s price falls.

**Volatility Skew – Indicates variations in implied volatility across options, revealing insights into expectations and market sentiment. To develop effective trading and in order to price options, skew patterns serve as a valuable tool in this market. An important ingredient is that the skew reflects differences between implied volatility across options with different strike prices, but with same expiry dates, therefore highlighting market sentiment and expectations.

Earlier this year, markets were relatively calm, and in January, the FTSE 100 hit a record high with implied volatility at circa 50% of the current level. However, since then, implied volatility has climbed above 23%, forcing institutions to switch from expensive vanilla puts to VKOs in order to manage hedging costs. In essence, VKO adoption is usually higher than 23%, more often than not around a realised volatility threshold of 30%, and in particular in the context of the S&P 500 (SPX) hedging.

Overall, the renewed interest, especially institutional interest in VKOs, is down to the Middle East crisis and the ensuing volatility that has been engendered. Participants have turned to this option as it is cheaper than standard vanilla puts. The VKO features a realised volatility barrier that makes the option expire worthless if the market becomes too volatile, which eliminates the premium costs associated with volatility.

IEA Declares Largest Ever Global Oil Supply Disruption

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 15, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Headquartered in Paris, France, the IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently declared that the current Middle East Crisis is responsible for the creation of what will most likely be the largest supply disruption the global oil market has ever encountered. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is eroding the current oil surplus, and it is forcing energy producers and exporters within the Persian Gulf to cut output.

Officials from the IEA have estimated that the current US/Iran/Israel conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 Million/bls a day this month, and they went on to confirm that overall exports of crude oil and other products through the Strait of Hormuz are already down by circa 90%. Original predictions by the IEA for 2026 was for a record oil glut/surplus, these have now been dramatically reduced. As of Wednesday last week, the IEA announced that members (32 OECD* nations) had approved to let go 400 Million/bls from emergency reserves.

*OECD – Based in Paris, France the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is an international forum of 38, mostly industrialised countries that promote policies to improve economic and social well-being worldwide. Founded in 1961, it acts as a knowledge-based organisation developing standards and research to improve trade, financial stability and public policy.

Despite output losses from the Persian gulf being slightly set off by increased production from non-OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), the IEA has said that the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be felt well beyond the time that the Strait is reopened. Sadly, consumers in many countries around the world will be forced to endure for many months, maybe years, higher prices for food, petrol and diesel, airline flights, restaurants and many other day-to-day purchases.

United States, Israel and Iran Agree to Temporary Ceasefire

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 8, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

A two week temporary ceasefire in the current Middle East hostilities has been agreed, but only one hour before President Donalds Trump’s deadline where he had promised to obliterate Iran. The ceasefire, which was brokered by Pakistan, includes a 10-point plan with Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz whilst on-going peace talks continue. As a result, oil fell below $100pbl, with Brent crude falling by as much as 16% to trade within a range of $93pbl – $95pbl. West Texas Intermediate also fell to around the $95pbl mark.

Those close to the agreement have advised that the 10-point peace plan includes:

An end to attacks on Iran and its allies
Continued control by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz
All primary and secondary sanctions on Iran to be lifted
US military withdrawal from the Middle East
The release of all frozen Iranian assets
Iran and Oman to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (USD 2 million per ship)

Interestingly, the above points are also in Farsi, however that document includes the words “acceptance of enrichment” for their nuclear plan, which for whatever reason was left out of the English version. According to a statement issued by state media, Iran will only accept an end to hostilities if the final version of the peace plan incorporates the above demands. Some of these demands have been rejected by the White House in the past, however President Trump said the 10-point peace plan was a “workable basis on which to negotiate”.

However, a number of experts have advised that the United States are unlikely to agree with some of Iran’s demands, and Democratic Senator Chris Murphy noted that with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, it would be “cataclysmic for the world”. The office of the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netan, advised that Israel has backed the decision to temporarily cease hostilities with Iran, however, the ceasefire does not include Israel’s current hostilities with Lebanon.

Experts and analysts suggest that whilst the President sees a framework to discuss a permanent ceasefire, they cannot see the United States agreeing to allow Iran to continue with nuclear enrichment. Political commentators advise that the temporary ceasefire has let President Trump “off the hook” in regard to his promise to obliterate Iran. They also note that one of the cornerstones of the attack on Iran was to get rid of the current leadership and return the country to a democratic government.

Sadly, this has not happened, in fact, nothing has really changed. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) remains the dominant force, and the old guard leadership that has essentially been wiped out has been replaced by more extreme figures. Furthermore, it should be remembered that the IRGC controls 50% of all the income from Iran’s energy exports, so if all sanctions are lifted and all assets unfrozen, this will make them even stronger.

Experts say that if any agreement is reached it will surely be a hollow victory at best for President Trump, and how this will play out in the US with the mid-terms looming could end up being totally catastrophic for the Republican party. The only other option is a resumption of hostilities, which will be a nightmare for those peace-loving citizens of Iran, and the economic and social repercussions on the rest of the world do not bear thinking about.

How Does Today’s Oil Crisis Compare to that of the Early 1970’s

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 8, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Current Impact on Consumers

As a result of the United States/Israel/Iran war the world is now reeling from a global energy shock with prices of gas, electricity and fuel at the petrol pumps all hitting the consumer where it hurts, in the pocket! In the United Kingdom, diesel prices at the pumps before the war started were circa 134p per litre, whereas today they are circa 185p per litre and rising. On the intercity motorway’s, diesel is being offered in some cases at even 200p per litre. In the EU (European Union), commentators advise that Brussels are drawing up plans for potential rationing of jet fuel and/or diesel with officials stressing that these are just emergency plans.

Lessons from the 1973 Embargo

The oil crisis back in the early 70’s was fundamentally different to the crisis the world is facing today, but the potential outcome of today’s crisis is essentially the same: It could trigger a global financial and economic crisis. The crisis began in 1973 when OAPEC* members imposed an oil embargo on the United States and other nations who were supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The result was the quadrupling of oil prices, severe shortages and rationing that consumed the countries involved. When the embargo was lifted in March 1974, there were economic recessions, massive inflation and major and lasting shifts in global energy policy.

*OAPEC – Founded in 1968 and stands for the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, limited to Arab oil-exporting nations. With headquarters in Kuwait the current membership includes Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the UAE (United Arab Emirates). This is a separate group from OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) which was founded in 1960, membership includes countries from Africa, the Middle East and South America.

The Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Today’s oil crisis is different from the 1970s insofar as oil, gas and fertiliser shortages are due to the current United States/Israel/Iran conflict. This has resulted in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which circa 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas is shipped. Analysts and experts in the energy and economic arenas are at loggerheads as to the potential fall-out from this crisis, but all are agreed that this war should end sooner rather than later.

Potential for Greater Economic Instability

A number of experts suggest that the fall-out from this crisis could be worse than the 1973 crisis, where both the USA and the UK suffered recessions from 1973 – 1975. In the UK, this resulted in the downfall of the Edward Heath led conservative government. One expert has suggested that currently, there could be a bigger energy shock as opposed to the early 70’s when there was a cut in oil of 5% – 7%, however, today we are looking at a global cut of circa 20%, and things will only get worse the longer the crisis goes on. Not only will there be a massive spike in oil, gas and food prices, but there will also be hikes in interest rates to combat the inevitable inflation.

Supply Chain Risks: Beyond Fuel

Currently, there is irrefutable proof of what the future may hold as jet fuel has almost doubled, which will lead to increases in airfares, prices for the consumer at the pumps for diesel and petrol have already risen, and some foodstuffs in supermarkets are already seeing an increase in prices. One third of the world’s helium flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for the production of semi-conductors or micro chips used in just about everything consumers use on a daily basis. Analysts report that the Gulf region is also central and crucial to the global fertilizer supply, and if it becomes scarce the world could also be in for a food shock to add to the on-going energy shock.

The Long Road to Recovery

Consumers and governments alike are lucky that summer is fast approaching, therefore resulting in lower heating costs to households. However, experts advise that if the war was to end tomorrow, it would take at least a year for supply lines to get back to normal, and a further year to see a reduction in prices. However, if there has been substantial damage to refineries and export outlets, then analysts suggest it could be up to five years before normality resumes.

The Limitations of Renewable Energy

Data shows that in the EU, wind and solar energy combined now outpace fossil fuel generation by 30% – 29%, and in the UK in 2024, renewables for the first time produced more than 50% of electricity. However, despite forward steps being made for renewables taking over from fossil fuels, and despite the ongoing rhetoric, the crisis in the Middle East shows that even after just five weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, there is already an energy crisis which highlights how far renewable energy still has to go. It is hoped that this conflict will end soon, otherwise, and according to experts, there could be intolerable economic hardship.

The Loss of Helium Exports Due to the Iran Crisis Will Prove Critical

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on April 1, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Helium is a colourless, odourless, non-flammable, non-renewable inert gas. It is commercially extracted from natural gas using fractional distillation*. As the second lightest and second most abundant element in the universe, helium has widespread applications across multiple industries and medical fields. The sudden disruption to helium exports via the Strait of Hormuz is now having a significant negative impact on the medical sector, semiconductor manufacturing, and several other critical industries.

*Fractional distillation is a laboratory and industrial process used to separate mixtures of liquids with different boiling points. In the case of helium, it involves a cryogenic process in which natural gas is cooled to extremely low temperatures. This takes advantage of helium’s exceptionally low boiling point (−268.9°C), allowing it to be separated from nitrogen, methane, and other components.

Roughly two-thirds of the world’s helium supply comes from the United States, with much of the remainder supplied by Qatar. With the Strait of Hormuz currently closed, supply lines have effectively been choked. This disruption is now threatening the production and operation of semiconductor-based technologies used in everything from automobiles and washing machines to smartphones, space systems, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Helium plays a vital role in semiconductor fabrication, particularly in cooling extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used to print microchips.

At present, around 200 helium containers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, each holding approximately 41,000 litres of liquid helium. Experts warn that the gas will gradually boil off within 35 to 48 days, rendering the shipments unusable. These containers were destined for South Korea and Taiwan, which together manufacture approximately 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Without chips, global supply chains face severe disruption. Some analysts have even highlighted the knock-on effect on defence systems, noting that modern AI-driven technologies rely heavily on semiconductor availability.

In the medical sector, the shortage of helium is already affecting hospitals and diagnostic centres worldwide. MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) machines rely on helium to cool superconducting magnets to extremely low temperatures. Current shortages are delaying refills, increasing operational costs, and threatening the continuity of MRI services. Beyond MRI systems, helium is also critical for NMR spectrometers, cryosurgery procedures, and respiratory treatments.

NMR spectrometers are used to determine molecular structures essential for research and pharmaceutical development.
Cryosurgery and cryoablation use helium’s ultra-low temperatures to freeze and destroy diseased tissue.
Respiratory medicine uses helium-oxygen mixtures (heliox) to treat severe airway obstructions.

Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum stating that the United States will withdraw from the war zone “with or without a peace deal” once Iran’s nuclear capabilities are neutralised. However, logistics experts caution that even after hostilities cease, it could take more than three months for helium supply chains to normalise. If there is significant structural damage to Qatari production facilities, shortages could persist for years.

White House officials have indicated that US military forces could begin returning home within three weeks. However, recent history suggests that such timelines are often optimistic and subject to change.

Without semiconductors, modern economies could grind to a halt. Chips underpin almost every aspect of daily life, from aviation and automotive systems to global shipping, communications, and digital infrastructure. In emerging markets, access to MRI technology is already becoming limited, and prolonged disruption could soon affect developed nations as well.

Beyond the geopolitical narrative, the helium shortage represents a critical vulnerability in global supply chains. If the conflict continues, the consequences of helium scarcity may prove more damaging than the geopolitical tensions that caused it.

On-Going Iranian War means a Farewell to Cheap Flights

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 30, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

Due to the on-going Iran conflict in the Middle East, the world can say a farewell to cheap flights, especially for those wishing to connect between Asia and Europe. Recent data released shows ticket prices rocketing, up by 560% this month. According to a number of aviation experts, the world’s busiest and largest transit corridors are airports located within the Persian Gulf region, as such, prices are expected to remain elevated throughout the summer on to autumn, and likely even the Christmas period.

The disruption to flights, which began on 28^th February, has resulted in circa 70,000 flights being cancelled. This combined with rising fuel costs (jet fuel has more than doubled), reduced capacity and the shutdown of airspaces, has experts expecting elevated airfares to remain well into late November and likely into January 2027. Experts within the aviation arena suggest that price reductions to jet fuel may take a minimum of twelve weeks to work their way through to the airlines, depending on how quick supply lines become unfettered.

The disruption to the Persian Gulf corridor is reflected in prices from Hong Kong to London, where an average fare is now circa $3,318, an increase of 560% on February prices. Other examples are the Sydney to London route (AKA the Kangaroo Route) which fares are up 429% for the same period, as well as Bangkok to Frankfurt, which has spiked to $2,870 and increased by 505% for the same period. Analysts advise that jet fuel accounts for around one third of operating costs and a number of airlines have already raised fuel surcharges. Pan European flights are expected to raise prices of tickets in the near future, as jet fuel increases are passed onto customers.

Russia is Reaping the Rewards from the Iranian Conflict

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 18, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

While the U.S. and Israel continue their military operations to undermine the Iranian government, Tehran’s drone and missile capabilities remain a persistent threat to the Gulf States. With the Strait of Hormuz now largely closed to commercial shipping, the global economy faces a mounting energy crisis with no immediate resolution in sight. Oil prices continue to spike and so the White House has lifted sanctions (30 days only) on those countries who wish to buy oil from Russia, thereby enabling the Kremlin to fill their coffers and fund the on-going invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s Strategic Windfall: Market Benchmarks and Sanction Waivers

While the current international climate provides President Putin with renewed regional leverage, observers note that U.S. diplomatic maneuvers have largely foreclosed any near-term opportunity for a negotiated settlement with Russia. Data released shows that Putin is enjoying a win-double as Russian export prices have spiked thanks to the global oil benchmarks going through the roof due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict. If the conflict is not resolved soon, experts suggest that further sanctions easing could well become a reality. And indeed, the current waiver has helped clear a flotilla of tankers that are full of Russian crude oil, of which many are now heading or have arrived in India.

Friction Within the Alliance: Kyiv’s Response to U.S. Policy Shifts

Ukraine and its allies in Europe have slammed the decision by the White House to partially waive sanctions against Russia, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tanker traffic. Indeed, analysts advise that American efforts to bring the Russian/Ukraine war to end have stalled, and Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the sanctions lifting will strengthen Russia’s hand. President Zelensky went on to say, “Just this easing by America could provide Russia with around $10 Billion for the war. This certainly does not help peace.”

European Security Concerns: Diverging Perspectives in the G7

A number of European leaders have spoken out against the US administration, easing sanctions on Russia with the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, saying, “The move is very concerning as it impacts European security.” The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said, “Easing of sanctions now, for whatever reason, is wrong. We believe that is the wrong course of action, after all we want to ensure that Russia does not exploit the war in Iran to weaken Ukraine.”

Quantifying the Conflict: Fossil Fuel Revenue and Military Capacity

Experts advise that whichever way you look at it, Russia has definitely profited from the Iranian conflict, not only from the spike in oil prices but also from the 30-day waiver in sanctions on those countries buying Russian crude. A German NGO, known as the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says that Russia has so far earned circa Euros 6 Billion from fossil fuel exports since strikes on Iran began on 28^thFebruary 2026. They went on to say that current levels of earnings by Russia from fossil fuels allows them to buy circa 17,000 Shahed, 136 attack drones every 24 hours, and analysts advise that sanction waivers could push this total even higher.

The On-Going Effect of the US-Israel-Iran Conflict

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on March 18, 2026. Posted in Iran, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

The on-going Iranian conflict is affecting many aspects of life across the globe, the most notable being the price of oil and its derivatives. The price of oil remains very volatile, a week ago today the price opened at circa $120pbl and closed at circa $81.50pbl, and today Brent Crude is trading at above $104pbl.

The knock-on effect will be felt by consumers across the globe as prices go up for heating, fuel at the pumps, food etc. Governments will be keeping a watchful eye on their own CPI (Consumer Price Index), as inflation will once again begin to rise. However, as outlined below, it’s not just the cost of crude oil that the conflict is pushing up.

Fertilizer Crisis

Fertilizer is essential for food production, however, just before spring which is many farmers’ planting season, the Iran Conflict is pushing up the cost of nitrogen products such as urea and ammonia. Urea for example is primarily used as a highly concentrated nitrogen fertilizer that promotes vigorous plant growth and has a nitrogen content of 46%, an essential tool for modern farming. Due to the current conflict, the price of Urea has surged by circa 34% to $600/T, and this together with other essential raw material will mean higher prices in the supermarkets with farmers across the globe rushing to secure critical fertilizers.

Palm Oil

Due to the on-going Iranian crisis, Palm Oil futures are now over $100pbl as prospective demand for biofuel feedstocks spike and is almost at a parity with gasoil*. Palm oil is a versatile vegetable oil found in nearly 50% of packaged supermarket products. It is also a key ingredient in cosmetics, cleaning supplies, and biofuels, and is frequently added to livestock feed, especially in the dairy industry, due to its exceptionally high energy content.

*Gasoil – (AKA red diesel or tractor diesel) is a low-duty, red-dyed fuel identical to regular road diesel but restricted to off-road industrial, agricultural and heating use. It is a middle distillate derived from crude oil refining, primarily powering machinery such as tractors, cranes and generators.

Global Food Supply

Farmers across many regions including Europe and Asia, are vulnerable to an oil and gas crunch due to the Iran conflict, and the scarcity of fuel will make it difficult to operate essential farm machinery. For example, in Bangladesh, farmers are unable to start their irrigation pumps due to the lack of diesel. In Australia, it is almost the planting season, and farmers have been advised of fuel delivery cutbacks. In the Philippines, it is predicted that fishermen and boat owners will not be able to go to sea.

Europe is also vulnerable, for example in Germany 100 litres of diesel is up by EUR 30, and in Romania, farm diesel prices have jumped about 30%. A UK farmer highlighted that existing diesel stocks will be exhausted by mid-spring. Beyond that point, agricultural operations will be forced to pay the prevailing market rate, provided that fuel supplies remain accessible.

Fuel Oil

Fuel oil powers container ships and is the backbone of globalisation, however, the price of this commodity is skyrocketing. Fuel oil is also known in the industry as the “bottom of the barrel”, and is usually cheap, flying under the radar compared to the more well-known fuels (that get distilled higher up petroleum distillation towers) such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

The shipping industry is now sounding the alarm as it’s not only the price of fuel oil that is worrying, some of the key ports across the globe may run out of stock forcing bulk carriers and container ships to halt in their tracks. Recent data released shows that fuel oil in two of the top three bunkering locations (Fujairah UAE and Singapore) are beginning to run very low on stocks. If the conflict continues for a couple months, fuel oil will become a major problem.

Conclusion

Analysts warn that if geopolitical tensions are not resolved swiftly, the global cost-of-living crisis will intensify, potentially causing inflation to become entrenched across G7 economies once again. This means that central banks may be forced to increase interest rates, thereby increasing the cost of borrowing, energy and food, which will be very hard on consumers.

Tag: Iran