Author: IntaCapital Swiss

Think Tank Advises Rising Sea Levels to Adversely Affect Oil Shipments and Oil Rigs

Due to rising temperatures, rising sea levels caused by melting ice* could seriously erode energy security and disrupt crude oil shipments in countries dependent on oil imports such as Japan, South Korea and China leaving many of the world’s biggest oil terminals vulnerable to flooding, so said researchers from CWR (China Water Risk) on 21st May 2024. Looking back to 2021, an intergovernmental panel on climate change reported that average sea levels could, on current trends, rise by more than a metre or even two metres by the end of the century.

*Melting Ice – In 2023, researchers from the BAS (British Antarctic Survey) reported that low levels of sea ice in and around the Antarctic  could well have been influenced by climate change. Experts advised that during the winter of 2023, Antarctic sea ice was circa 770,000 square miles (larger than Alaska) below average. Elsewhere, a separate report on the Thwaites Glacier (Antarctic) experts found that it is more exposed to warm water than previously thought by scientists. Researchers advise that if the glacier melts it could raise sea levels by two feet.

Experts went on to say that if sea levels rise by one metre 12 out of the top 15 oil tanker terminals would be severely impacted with five of those terminals located in Asia. Furthermore, from a global point of view, it is estimated that up to circa 42% of crude oil exports could be severely impacted from countries including the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, which in turn could affect 45% of crude oil shipments to China, South Korea, the Netherlands, and the United States.

As a  result of their infrastructure test, CWR confirmed that most low lying bunkering facilities and ports will be negatively impacted by higher sea levels. They confirmed that Asian countries were likely to be hit the hardest, and that they should lead the way in improving port infrastructure to protect them from rising sea levels, but also lead the way in transitioning to green energy. Oil is a massive component in energy security, but oil and gas operations contribute 15% of total energy carbon emissions (5.1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas) and if the world cannot reduce their dependence on this fossil fuel, far from providing energy security it may end up damaging it beyond recognition.

Bank of England Interest Rates. Will They or Won’t They?

This month on June 20th the Bank of England’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will meet and decide whether or not to keep interest rates on hold. At the last meeting of the MPC in May, interest rates were held at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive month and are still at their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 2007 – 2009. The Bank of England’s target figure for inflation is 2% and in April it dipped to 2.3% which is a significant difference to March’s figure of 3.2%. 

However, experts in the financial markets had expected CPI (Consumer Price Index a common measure for headline inflation) for April to come in at 2.1%. However an important element in core inflation (does not include figures from food and energy sectors) came in at 5.9% in April down only 0.1% from March. All the above figures are supplied by the ONS (Office of National Statistics).

At the May meeting of the MPC Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that June may see a cut in interest rates though it is not a “fait accompli”, whilst also advising that like other central banks any cut in interest rates will be data driven. In mid-May financial markets suggested that an interest rate cut in June was circa 60% as measured by the overnight index swaps*, but since the release of the April inflation figures in late May that suggestion of an interest rate cut has subsided mainly in part due to sticky service inflation figures.

*Overnight Index Swaps – This is a financial bet on the direction of short-term interest rates and is a type of interest rate swap. In this case, it is typically a fixed for floating swap, where one party pays a fixed rate and receives the floating rate (linked to an overnight index) while the other party does the opposite. The overnight index for sterling is known as Sonia (replaced sterling Libor) and stands for Sterling Overnight Index Average.So will the Bank of England cut interest rates on June 20th? A number of experts suggest that an interest rate cut may not happen as the services sector inflation remains a problem and came in a lot hotter than market analysts predicted. Many experts feel that services inflation remains a critical part of the Bank of England’s thinking regarding inflation and interest rate cuts, and therefore the MPC may well decide to once again hold rates on June 20th.

China to Issue Yuan 1 Trillion (USD 138 Billion) Long-Term Special Treasury Bonds

China’s finance ministry has confirmed that starting Friday 17th May 2024 Long-Term Treasury Bonds with a tenor of 30 years and a value of Yuan 40 Billion will be issued. Bonds with a tenor of 20 years and 50 years will be issued on 24th May 2024 and 4th June 2024 respectively, with the balance of the bonds with a tenor of 30 years being issued in November 2024. This confirms China’s bond announcement in March of this year, with the issuance being the first of its kind for 26 years.

The breakdown of the bonds are as follows,

20 Years  – Yuan 300 Billion

30 Years  – Yuan 600 Billion

50 Years – Yuan 100 Billion

Experts suggest that the Chinese government, which is facing pressure from weak consumer confidence and the on-going housing crisis, is increasing fiscal support to help the economy. The government may well use some of the funds to spend on infrastructure which will be key to hitting their annual growth target of 5%, with some experts suggesting that the boost to Gross Domestic Product could be as much as 1%. Analysts suggest the timing of the bond issue coincides with protectionist tariffs against Chinese goods by the United States, (the latest of which announced 14th May 2024)*, and is intended to offset any impact incurred by such tariffs.

US Protectionist Tariffs – The new measures affect $18 billion in imported Chinese goods including steel and aluminium, semiconductors, electric vehicles, critical minerals, solar cells and cranes, the White House said. The EV figure, while headline-grabbing, may have more political than practical impact in the U.S., which imports very few Chinese EVs.

Experts expect that the Chinese government will use the funds to move the economy away from the investment in infrastructure and property growth model which has caused the increases in debt held by local governments. Interestingly, if compared to a global standard, the Chinese economy has enough room to potentially issue over the next five to ten years bonds to the value in excess of three trillion yuan. Indeed, analysts advise that more long-dated bonds will be issued in the future to strengthen energy and food security sectors, as well as the manufacturing supply chain.

Recent data released showed that aggregate financing (a broad credit measure) shrank for the first time in April by circa Yuan 200 Billion (USD27.7 Billion), down from March, being the first decline since comparable data began in 2017, which reflects a contraction in financing activity. Data shows that in April financial institutions offered Yuan 731 Billion in new loans lower than the project figure 0f Yuan 916 Billion. Experts advise that the issuance of the Long-Term treasury bonds will increase credit expansion in both May and June whilst officials from China’s top commercial banks were recently summoned to the Ministry of Finance to arrange underwriting of the long-term bonds.

United Kingdom Interest Rates: May 2024

Interest rates reached 5.25% in August 2023 and have held steady ever since.

Once again on 9th May 2024, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, BOE), held rates steady at 5.25%. A number of experts and analysts felt that the Bank of England would cut interest rates this time around, but data showed that inflation was stickier than otherwise predicted. A rate cut is still expected this year, but the timing may have just been kicked slightly down the road. Interestingly, the Deputy Governor of the  Bank of England along with external member Swati Dhingra voted for an immediate cut in a 7 – 2 split favouring keeping interest rates steady

However, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has given the clearest hint yet that interest rates may soon be cut by indicating that he feels the financial markets have under-priced the pace of easing in the coming months. The governor further advised that before the next meeting on June 6th, there are two rounds of data regarding inflation and wages which will be highly important regarding any rate cut. Governor Bailey went on to say, “It’s likely that we will need to cut bank rates over the coming quarters and make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period, possibly more so than currently priced into market rates”. 

Whilst the governor was not actually confirming that 6th June will see an interest cut saying that date is “neither ruled out or a fait accompli’, this is the first time he has addressed investors/financial markets directly regarding expectations on future interest rate cuts. After the governor’s comments, traders priced in a 25 basis point as 50/50 in June but have fully priced in a cut in interest rates in August. The markets are now suggesting that there will be 59 basis points cut in 2024 as opposed to early suggestions of 54 basis points.

By the end of the second quarter, officials in the Bank of England feel inflation will be down to 2% (Bank of England target) due mainly to lower energy bills. These officials have further advised that they expect inflation to rise slightly throughout Q3 and Q4 but at a gentler pace than previously expected, though they warned geopolitical factors might negatively impact inflation. Interestingly, a number of experts and economists have advised that inflation may well fall below the target figure of 2% by the end of Q2, forcing the Bank of England into cutting interest rates.

Interest Rates Remain Unchanged in Europe, America, and the United Kingdom

The European Central Bank

On the 7th of March 2024 the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates on hold for the fourth meeting in succession, the deposit rate of 4% remaining unchanged. The consensus coming out of the Governing Council is that keeping borrowing costs unchanged for a sufficiently long period means that their target inflation number of 2% will be more easily accessible. Indeed, the President of the ECB Christine Lagarde advised that inflation is definitely slowing down but remains sceptical of lowering interest rates at this time. 

President Lagarde went on to say that further data in the coming months, especially by June, should give the ECB a clearer picture regarding a drop in interest rates. Like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, the ECB is considering when to announce that inflation is beaten and start the process of unwinding their unprecedented monetary tightening policy. However, like their peers the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and despite Presidents Lagarde’s coyness on a June 2024 interest rate cut, the indications from the ECB are that a June interest rate cut is in the offing, and as a result money markets are indicating three/four interest rate cuts by the end of the 2024.

The Federal Reserve

On the 20th of March 2024 the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced that they are holding the benchmark federal funds rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. However, officials signalled that they remain confident that rates will be cut in 2024 for the first time since March 2020 and they also revised downward their December 2023 forecast of four interest rate reductions in 2025 to three interest rate reductions. Whilst the Federal Reserve has seen inflation fall from a high of 9.1% in July 2022, the figure sadly ticked up slightly in February 2024 due to the cost of clothes, car insurance, airline fares, gas, rent and shelters. 

Post-meeting statements/comments were nearly identical to those made at the post meeting interviews in January 2024, being that rate cuts will not be made until the Federal Reserve is more confident that inflation is moving towards the 2% target. Experts have predicted that interest rate will be cut three times this year but there are doubts as recent data shows inflation is slowing and remains at 3.2%, meanwhile financial analysts and traders are betting that the first interest rate cut will be announced this June. Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his vow to keep interest rate elevated as the fight against inflation continues. 

The Bank of England

The Bank of England’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) on the 21st of March 2024, maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% by a majority vote of 8 to 1 as official data released showed that inflation had receded to 3.4%, its lowest level in over two years. However, whilst headline inflation has been receding rapidly, the Bank of England is very aware of prices in the service sector and wages where price growth is still in excess of 6%. The Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey was quoted as saying “Britain’s economy is moving  towards the point where the Bank of England can start cutting interest rates”. Interestingly within the 8 to 1 majority and for the first time since September 2021 none of the MPC members voted for a rate hike, and two hawks (Jonathon Haskel and Catherine Mann) became part of the no-change majority with Swati Dhingra being the one vote for a cut in interest rates. 

When asked the question ‘Were investors correct to price-in two to three rate cuts in 2024?’, Andrew Bailey replied “It is reasonable for markets to take that view”, while stressing that he would not confirm or endorse the size or the timing of the cuts. As a result experts within the financial markets have raised their bets for a first cut in June 2024 as Governor Bailey confirmed that the UK was on the way to winning the battle against inflation. Interestingly, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has alluded to an October 2024 general election, so in order to avoid criticisms of bias towards the government and to assert their independence, any interest rate cuts will have to be made sooner rather than later.

What is Bank Liquidity and Why is it Important?

The global financial crisis of 2007 – 2009 is a classic example of what happens when banks do not have enough cash to pay their debts, e.g., all those items on the liability side of their balance sheets. The reasons for the named financial crisis have been written about and discussed and dissected many times, which is why banks and other financial institutions have to adhere to very strict rules implement by their own authorities, on the back of the Basel iii Agreement*.

*The Basel iii Agreement was implemented in 2009 after the global financial meltdown, this agreement was produced by the Bank for International Settlements in conjunction with 28 central banks from across the globe. This agreement was designed to promote stability in the international banking sector and is a set of reforms to mitigate risk that require banks to keep certain levels of liquidity and maintain certain leverage ratios.

Simply put, banks are now required to maintain adequate cash or assets that can be easily turned into cash to meet the demands of depositors and financial market counterparty transactions in the event of an economic shock as seen in the global financial crisis and in events in March 2023. If liquidity rules are revoked in any way the results can be catastrophic as in the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023, which also resulted in a run on other banks.

These failures were put down to President Donald Trump signing into law a bill that reduced scrutiny on banks with assets under USD250 Billion. This was down to the naive thought that with the extra liquidity now available to certain banks, they would be able to invest the funds profitably. What became clear, however, is that these financial rules make a huge difference, and are truly there to stop banks failing. 

Sadly, it appears that despite financial disasters, lessons are never learned and the next financial crisis could be just around the corner. If this is the case, it is hoped that throughout the major financial centres in the world, the banks have got their houses in order. Indeed, last year the vice president of the European Central Bank announced that banks in Europe had robust liquidity and high capital ratios and depositors would be safe in times of economic stress. Furthermore, recent announcements from the Federal Reserve in the United States advise they will stress test thirty two large lenders in scenarios under severe economic shock.

Today it appears that financial authorities and regulators have put in place (or are putting in place) sufficient regulations and stress tests that will satisfy the Basel iii agreement. However, extreme vigilance must be constant by authorities and political masters should be advised to keep well away from the rules and regulations of banking systems. Financial shocks always come as a surprise, so it is always important to make sure that the regulations implemented to protect society are followed to a letter, and not just undone the moment someone forgets about the last crisis.

What is Basis Trading and How Does it Affect the Treasury Bond Market?

Basis trading is a financial trading strategy regarding the purchase of a particular financial instrument or security (in this case Treasury Bonds) or commodity, and the sale of its related derivative. In this example, it is the purchase of a Treasury Bond and the sale of its related futures contract. In the treasury market, the trade is centred on the price differential between treasury bonds and their associated futures contracts.

From time to time, due to heavy purchasing of Treasury bond futures by insurance companies, institutional investors and pension funds*, the bond futures price rises above the price of the underlying bond. Once this price differential is in place hedge funds take advantage of this price differential and will buy Treasury bonds and at the same time sell corresponding Treasury futures. The upshot of this trade is that by selling the higher priced bonds in one market and buying the cheaper priced bonds in another market, the hedge funds can profit from the price differential. 

*Purchasing Treasury Bond Futures – Asset managers instead of buying actual Treasury bonds quite often prefer to buy futures because there is less upfront cash to pay. 

However, the profits from these trades are very small, and therefore heavy borrowing is required in order to make them more lucrative. Sometimes when there are unexpected episodes or events, this can quite often lead to market volatility leading to potential tragic consequences for the trade leaving the trader no option but to straight away unload all their holdings. This form of arbitrage*, as mentioned previously, requires heavy borrowing, and hedge funds usually borrow from the Repo Market**. It is normal for hedge funds to offer their Treasury bonds as collateral, as the normal practice is to roll-over these loans on a daily basis. Experts advise that these trades can be quite risky due to the amount of leverage involved (on average USD50 for every USD1 invested so 50 times leverage), plus a big reliance on short-term borrowings. 

*Arbitrage – the simultaneous buying and selling of currencies, commodities or securities in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of the differing prices of the same asset.

**Repo (Repurchase Agreement) Market – In this market money market funds, banks and others lend short-term capital against government securities, in this case US Treasury Bonds. Basically, in this transaction a borrower temporarily lends a security to a lender for cash with an agreement to buy it back in the future at a predetermined price. Ownership of the security does not change hands in a repo transaction.

When the Treasuries market experiences volatility, it can increase the cost of the trade thereby negating profitability, so hedge funds must very quickly unwind their trades in order to repay their loans thereby increasing volatility in an already volatile market.  Such fluctuations can see liquidity drying up and a decrease in the availability of buyers. In such instances* the Treasuries market can literally seize up, and with Treasury bonds being so fundamental to the credit market (and they are risk-free), the US Federal Reserve has had to intervene when the normal functioning of the market has become impaired. 

*Onset of the CoronaVirus – Back in 2020 when the Covid-19 appeared the huge volatility in the markets prompted margin calls in Treasury bond futures, amplifying funding problems in the repo market. Simultaneously, Treasury bond holdings were being dumped by foreign central banks in order to prop their own currencies with US Dollars. This prompted cash bonds to underperform their futures counterparts which is the opposite of the conditions needed for the basis trade to make a profit. It was never fully understood how much basis trading contributed to the turmoil in the market, but the rapid unwinding of positions by hedge funds certainly increased volatility. The upshot was the Federal Reserve promised to buy trillions of dollars of Treasury Bonds to keep markets running smoothly whilst providing the repo market with emergency funding. 

Basis trading subsided after the 2020 debacle but returned in early 2023 due the Federal Reserve monetary tightening policies by raising interest rates a record eleven times in eighteen months, which pushed up yields on 10 year Treasury bonds to circa 5%. On the demand side, this yield (highest since 2007) once again attracted large institutional buyers to buy futures, and on the supply side the Federal Reserve has increased sales of bonds to fund the US Government deficits, which has put downward price pressure on cash bonds. Therefore there is now a sufficient gap between the price of cash bonds and futures to have basis traders up and running again.

Financial watchdogs and authorities are unhappy over these trades, specifically because they are highly leveraged, and the fact that they are direct from one party to another. This means regulation is difficult, plus hedge funds themselves have much less regulation than banks. To this end, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have called for closer monitoring of basis trades. Indeed the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalised a rule in May of this year (starting June 2024)requiring all private funds to report sudden large losses, margin increases and any other significant changes.

Due to Government Crackdown, Chinese Quant Funds Suffer

 For many international investors who are eyeing the Chinese equity markets with suspicion, the recent and sudden trading restrictions is yet another reason to avoid the markets. Indeed, until February 2024, China has endured a record outflow from the equity market, and due to never before seen crackdowns on the property and tech sectors, foreign direct investment is at a thirty year low. Furthermore, as a result of the Chinese government’s efforts to halt a USD$ Trillion sell-off in stocks the Quant industry*, (once a booming and integral part of the equity market) it has suffered losses and is yet another casualty of government policy.

*Quant (Quantitative) Fund – This is a fund that identifies with automated algorithms and advanced quantitative models together with statistical and mathematical techniques to make investment decisions and execute trades. Unlike other funds (e.g., hedge funds) a Quant fund has no human judgement or intellect in investment decisions, and experts argue that the computer based models mitigate losses and risks related to human fund management. 

Market analysts advise that the new restrictions will require Quant funds to be scrutinised and regulators will demand that any new entrants will have to report trading strategies before actually trading. Apart from sweeping regulations that are harming Quant funds, they have been caught off-guard by government intervention. Due to the five year low on the *CSI 300 index, they took very hard and forceful measures to stabilise the markets, with Quant funds firmly in their sights.

*The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is designed to replicate the performance of the top 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and is weighted for market capitalization. As such, it is seen as a blue-chip index for mainland Chinese stocks.

First of all, in early February 2024, the head securities regulator was dismissed and replaced by a veteran known as the “Butcher Broker” due to his previous record of hard crackdowns Experts suggest that Quants were targeted as the authorities were concerned that declines in equities were compounded by Quant funds making short bets and unloading large blocks of shares. Therefore some Quant funds were limited in their ability to undertake short trades, which, combined with shifts in the market, inhibited and stifled Quant funds. 

Analysts advise that a favourite trade for Quant funds is purchasing small cap stocks as they are susceptible to mispricing and the quants computer programmes exploits this opportunity to gain profitability, whilst hedging market exposure by shorting index futures. However, declines in small cap stocks made sure that quant funds reduce holdings and the huge selling triggered losses in the derivatives market known as snowballs*. This caused further panic in the market (known as a quant quake) and index futures were dumped by brokerages as well. 

*Snowballs – A Snowball product is a structured hybrid derivative which pays a bond-like coupon and consists of additional options on basic financial assets, which include underlying assets such as stocks or stock indexes. The word snowball derives from the fact that coupons can be rolled over and coupon pay-outs rely on the underlying asset trading within a certain range. 

Finally the volatility that was in the equity markets impacted those funds (e.g. hedge funds) who had invested in what is known as market-neutral products* and in many cases had leveraged themselves up to 300%, thus forcing them to unwind their positions creating even more havoc in the market which was already going south. This prompted the authorities to prop up exchange traded funds via government-led funds known as the national team, which resulted in a boost for large caps stocks but ignoring the small caps. Data released showed some of the top Quant funds lagging behind the CSI 500 Index (a well-known indicator of the performance of Chinese mid and small cap companies), by circa 12 points for 2 week’s ending 8th February 2024.

*Market Neutral Products – These funds/investments are designed to target returns that are independent of market directions. This is achieved with equal long and short positions in any industry and by investing in equities where the long positions are expected to outperform their peers and the short equities are expected to underperform. Any losses in the short position are offset by profits in the long position.

Following the crackdown on quants the main equity index has risen in nine straight sessions including every day from 19th -23rd February 2024, the longest run of uninterrupted gains in six years. So for now, the strong arm tactics of the authorities are working to stop the downward spiral of equities, however experts wonder if Quant funds will continue operating where there are such arbitrary market interventions. The question is this: will investors be convinced this a one off intervention? Or will the image the authorities have tried to create over the last thirty years that China is committed to a professional and open market be soured?

 The Continuing March Upwards of Private Credit

Private credit can trace its roots back to the 1980’s where companies with strong credit/borrowing records were being loaned funds directly from insurance companies. However, post the 2007 – 2009 Global Financial Crisis, private credit really came into its own as an alternative to bank lending, especially as financial regulators were cracking down on those deposit taking institutions who were involved in risky lending. In today’s market, private credit has become a major contender in the loans market, and a serious rival to banks and similar lending institutions.

As of June 2023, data released shows that global closed-end private debt funds* have assets under management of circa USD1.7 Trillion, whereas as of close of business December 2015 global assets under management were circa USD500 Billion. Indeed, expert money managers suggest that by 2028, due to possible massive shifts in the financial markets, borrowers would flock to the front door of private credit funds, boosting the value of the global private debt market to USD3.5 Trillion. 

Closed-End Fund – This fund is a type of mutual fund, and in order to raise capital or investment, the fund issues a fixed number of shares through a one-time initial public offering (IPO). The shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange if the fund is quoted, but no new money can be received into the fund once the IPO closes. Access to closed-end funds is only available during a New Fund Offer (NFO).

Open-End Fund – As opposed to a closed-end fund, the open-end fund such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) accept new capital on a constant basis and also issue new shares. 

Mutual Fund – This is an investment opportunity where monies/investments are received from a wide range of individuals and pooled together in order to purchase a wide range of stocks, bonds and other securities. Funds are managed by professional money managers and are structured to match the prospectus where the investment objectives are stated.

Private credit is responsible for providing a vast amount of financial resources into a number of differing investment strategies, some of which are outlined below.

1.     Mezzanine Finance – Mezzanine loans or capital can be structured either as subordinated debt or as equity which is usually in the form of preferred stock. Mezzanine financing is recognised as a capital resource which can often be seen as subordinated debt and sits between higher risk equity and less risky senior debt. To facilitate the explanation of mezzanine debt, below are the definitions of senior debt and subordinated debt.

·      Senior Debt – often issued in the form of senior notes and also known as a senior loan, is a debt that will be paid first by the borrowing company. In other words, it takes priority over other unsecured debt and in the event the borrowing company goes into liquidation, owners of senior debt will be the first to be repaid.

·      Subordinated Debt – or as the name implies junior debt, is usually the last type of debt to be repaid. It has a lower status to senior debt and hence the name subordinated debt. Typically, subordinated debt or loans will carry a lower credit rating and will therefore offer a higher return than senior debt.

2.     Venture Debt – Venture debt, sometimes referred to as venture lending, is a certain type of debt lending to venture-backed companies. A venture-backed company that receives venture debt is defined as companies who are at the start-up stage of their existence and rely on venture capital to expand their business. Typically the company has yet to make a profit, and loan size is usually based on the company’s recurring revenue

3.     Distressed Debt – Private credit funds are known a). for buying up corporate debt that is currently trading well under its original value and b). where companies are in difficulties to provide new financing, with a view to make a profit when the company either liquidates or restructures. 

4.     Direct Lending – This type of lending by private credit funds, (aka unitranche loans), are typically a senior term loan (first lien and the least) but can also involve credit lines and second lien loans which are subordinated to the first lien. 

5.     Special Situations –  As the subject suggests, loans in this case are applicable when a special situation or event occurs, and the company’s profitability or growth (a company’s metrics) are not taken into account when lending decisions are made.

A number of experts have asked the question: will private credit stand a sustained protracted recession? Private credit fund managers have answered that in many cases their loans are safer as they are locked in for longer than your standard lending institutions. However, the uncertainty that surrounds the terms in the private credit market means that in a recession no one really knows how far valuations would fall, and as a result would investors in funds that are struggling be able to sell out their positions. 

Regulators in the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union are looking at expanding regulation in the private credit market. Indeed, regulators in the EU are putting strictures in place which ensure that private credit funds will diversify risk, and will cap leverage, whereby funds use borrowed funds to enhance profits. However, it appears that regulation will remain somewhat opaque as there seems to be a lack of appetite to bring regulation in line with banks and other lending institutions. This of course may reflect the attitudes of many governments, who seem happy to encourage private credit investment that they deem too risky for banks.

Interest Rate Overview: Eurozone, United States, United Kingdom February 2024

As predicted by many commentators, the governing council of the ECB (European Central Bank), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States Federal Reserve and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, all kept interest rates on hold. All three central banks cited the continuing fight against inflation as the reason for keeping interest rates on hold, but as many experts are predicting, interest rates will fall in 2024 in all three jurisdictions.

The Eurozone

On Thursday 25th January the Governing Council of the ECB announced for the third time in a row that interest rates were being held at a record high of 4%, reaffirming their fight against inflation. Many traders and analysts in the financial markets are betting on a rate reduction at the next Governing Council meeting on April 11th, 2024. 

However, Governor Christine Lagarde announced it was “premature to discuss rates”, though some unnamed members of the council have added that if upcoming data shows that inflation is beaten, then the April meeting could be dovish for a fall in interest rates at the June meeting. Despite these utterances, many in the financial markets believe the ECB have got it wrong and will be forced to cut interest rates in April.

The United States

On Wednesday January 31st, 2024, the Federal Reserve kept policy rates at a 22 year high of 5.25% – 5.50%, where the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell gave a massive endorsement on the economy’s strengths. He further advised that with the on-going expectation of falling inflation, coupled with economic growth, that rates had now peaked and would fall in the coming months. However, despite this pledge, Chairman Powell went on to say that he did not expect a rate cut at their next policy meeting in March, as they wish to see on-going positive data on the reduction of inflation to their figure of 2%. 

Interestingly, the Federal Reserve is hoping to accomplish beating inflation through tighter credit without putting the economy into recession, which historians suggest they only accomplished once in the last 100 years. But with inflation falling more quickly than expected, (2.6% as at close of business 2023), the Chairman is coming under political pressure to reduce rates in March. 

A massively divided country is going to the polls in November to elect a new president, and Chairman Powel received written requests to reduce interest rates from Senator Elizabeth Warren (Dem, former presidential candidate), and Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (Dem). Some market experts are suggesting that there is a circa 63% chance that the Federal reserve will cut interest rates in March, but with seven weeks of economic data to come the markets will have much to mull over.

United Kingdom

On February 1st, 2024, the Bank of England’s MPC announced that it was holding interest rates steady at 5.25%, admitting that a rate cut had been part of their discussions. In the end there was a split decision in the MPC with six members in favour of holding, two members voting to increase rates and one member voting for a drop in interest rates. Interestingly, this is the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic that a rate-setter has voted for a cut in interest rates, and the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008, that there has been a three-way split in the MPC.

Following the announcement, The governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey announced that “the level of bank rate remains appropriate, and we are not yet at a point where we can lower rates”. He also pointed out that there is an upside risk to inflation due to continuing trade disruptions, and ambiguously advised how long policy remains restrictive depends on incoming data. However, experts suggest that the Bank of England is now warming to rate cuts in 2024, with officials believing that consumer price inflation will be at 2% in the second quarter, mainly due to falling energy prices., a year earlier than forecasted last November.

Market analysts mainly agree that whatever the statement that comes out of the above central banks, interest rates are set to fall in 2024. It would appear that the Bank of England is set to lag behind the ECB and the Federal Reserve when it comes to cutting interest rates. However, better than expected January US employment figures may delay a US interest rate cut beyond March, and as to whether or not they all fall at the same time, only time will tell.