Trump, Putin and an Energy Deal
On Friday the 9th of October and in one of biggest sanction busting deals on record, President Donald Trump suspended sanctions on exports of Russian diesel until the 7th of April 2027, allowing Russia to release diesel into the United States and global markets. Russian diesel exporters immediately supplied 300,000 metric tons of diesel, with plans for up to 4.8 million metric tons. In exchange for this Russian gesture, President Trump demanded an immediate halt to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, declaring last Sunday that an immediate energy ceasefire was in place. However, this sanction busting deal of the century has triggered a cascade of complications, diplomatic rifts and domestic political resistance.
Indeed, on Tuesday the 13th of October 2026, a bipartisan coalition of 12 US senators (six Democrats and 6 Republicans) sent a heavily worded letter to President Trump demanding he cancels the deal with Russia. US lawmakers suggest this deal with Russia serves as a multi-billion dollar financial lifeline to Moscow that will directly fund Russia’s illegal war with Ukraine. Senators and other critics of this diesel deal argue that it contradicts the bipartisan Russian sanctions law that Trump signed into law a few weeks before he announced the deal with Putin, which required the lifting of sanctions. This deal also drew heavy criticism from the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, who relies on the US for military support. In his response, President Trump ripped into President Zelensky saying Ukraine should get a new President.
Indeed, it appears that the Ukrainian president is on a collision course with President Trump, whose relationship has been of a very up and down nature. Experts suggest that President Zelensky feels that the deal made with Moscow is more of a political nature rather than an effort to bring down the price of diesel at American gas stations. He feels, along with numerous other critics in the US and other countries, that this is just political grandstanding in the hope that the Republican party does not get humiliated at the mid-term elections on Tuesday the 3rd of November. A number of well-known and seasoned political experts in the United States suggest the Republicans are ‘in for a beating’ and that the Russian diesel deal could backfire on Republicans who have a small majority, as disaffected voters could either stay away or transfer their vote to the Democrats.
In Europe, some European Union (EU) officials warned that the diesel deal President Trump has made will increase the fighting potential of Moscow’s war machine in its war with Ukraine. The deal has been badly received by EU foreign ministers, who point out this agreement with Moscow undermines transatlantic unity, especially at a time when Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukraine. The word coming out of the EU is that they will continue to apply and increase sanctions on Russia, despite the recent diesel deal struck between President Trump and President Putin. Indeed, High Representative Kaja Kalla recently opined, “The US is our biggest ally, but our message is clear: if we want to end this war, the only way we can do this is by putting more pressure on Russia”*.
*More pressure on Russia – On the sanctions front it should be pointed out that the EU has hardly covered itself in glory. Whilst the EU’s Foreign Ministers gathered in Luxembourg on Monday the 11th of October regarding further sanctions on Russia and denouncing the Trump/Putin deal, data released shows the EU still imports circa 1 billion to 2 billion euros a month of Russian fossil fuels.
Experts in the diesel arena suggest that the diesel deal will have little effect on prices at the pumps and the squeeze on diesel is expected to carry on into 2027. The current high price of diesel in the US is down to President Trump, with experts saying that the war with Iran is responsible for the sky high prices. Interestingly, almost seven years ago, Nancy Pelosi (Former US House Speaker) in a heated White House meeting along with several US Officials, accused President Trump and his policies of favouring Russia and President Putin. President Trump has hailed the deal as an energy ceasefire but President Zelensky said Putin had not read the script and has continued attacking Kiev.
All in all, President Trump has failed to rid Iran of its leadership, in fact many analysts suggest that the government in Iran is even more hardline than before, and the current sanction busting diesel deal with Russia could well be his final nail in the coffin when the midterm elections arrive in less than three weeks. If the Democrats win, and win big, then experts advise if the Democrats win both houses, they will have the power to subpoena documents and testimony. Democrats have for two years been salivating over the prospect of impeaching President Trump and the diesel deal say experts may well have handed them the opportunity on a plate.
