Tag: Gold

Outlook for Gold 2026

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

There is a divergence amongst gold experts and analysts regarding the price of gold in 2026, where some predict a continuation of gold’s strength, and others suggest a potential correction or just a modest gain. 

The Remarkable Performance of 2025

2025 was a remarkable year for gold, returning over 60% whilst also achieving over 50 record highs. This outstanding performance was underpinned by various factors such as heightened geopolitical uncertainty, global economic uncertainty, central banks increasing their gold purchases (especially China), positive price momentum and a weaker U.S. Dollar.

Core Factors Shaping 2026

However, looking forward to 2026, many experts, analysts and financial commentators believe that gold will be defined by ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical unrest. They suggest that if the prevailing conditions currently affecting gold remain the same moving into 2026, then gold is likely to remain rangebound. However, if interest rates fall and economic growth slows, then gold could enjoy a moderate increase in value. 

Gold could perform at heightened levels in the event of a severe economic downturn driven by growing global risks. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease and White House policies boost economic growth, strengthening the dollar and pushing interest rates higher, the price of gold would likely fall.

Analysts suggest that as we move into 2026, financial markets expect the status quo to continue. However, uncertainty will persist due to geo-economic pressures on financial data, questions over whether inflation can finally be brought under control, and the outcome of political negotiations aimed at easing geopolitical unrest. 

Gold as a Strategic Diversifier

Another key aspect of gold is its role as a portfolio diversifier and a source of stability in times of political unrest and market volatility. This is especially prevalent as to whether we see a risk-on or risk-off sentiment, which will shape not only gold but all asset classes, and will affect gold’s status as a strategic diversifier*.

*Gold as a Strategic Diversifier – In investment terms, gold is included as a core, long-term asset within a multi-asset portfolio to enhance stability and improve risk-adjusted returns, rather than using the metal for short-term speculation. Some of the main characteristics of gold are an inflation and deflation hedge, and a historical record of preserving purchasing power. Other characteristics are no counterparty or credit risks (such as bonds or shares), as well as the market being highly liquid, meaning that the metal can be easily traded even in times of volatile and turbulent market conditions.

Bullish Price Targets and Downward Risks

Some market experts remain extremely bullish and are suggesting that in 2026, the yellow metal could go as high as USD 5,000, propelled by a cocktail of central bank buying, concerns over Donald Trump’s tariffs, a widening United States deficit and stubborn inflation. Some experts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in the coming year and expect strong investor demand to continue. Many believe the bull market is far from over and that gold’s long-term rally will extend well into 2026. But bulls beware, as mentioned above, there are many twists and turns expected in 2026, some of which might put downward pressure on the yellow metal.

Swiss Government Offering Gold Concessions to U.S. for Improved Tariffs

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

To reduce the tariffs currently standing at 39%, imposed by President Trump, the Swiss government has offered to invest in the United States’ gold refining industry in the hope that the White House will reconsider its position. The tariff has already harmed exports* to the United States, and in a statement, the Swiss Government said: “Diplomatic and political exchanges will continue with a view to achieving a quick reduction in additional tariffs.”

*Exports to the United States have been severely affected since the 39% tariff came into effect. In August, exports fell by 22% (excluding gold and adjusted for seasonal fluctuations) compared with the previous month. Swiss watch exports to America dropped sharply in August, further compounded by weak demand from China. In a statement on Thursday, 18 September, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry announced that all major markets were down, with the U.S. market (the industry’s largest) falling by 24%, and overall exports down 17% year-on-year.

*Gold bullion exports to the United States in August fell to 0.3 tonnes, taking a dramatic decline. However, clarification from the White House confirmed that tariffs on gold would not be implemented, a decision only formalised in September, allowing the resumption of the bullion trade. America’s trade deficit with Switzerland fell by one-third in August compared with the previous month, from CHF 2.93 billion to CHF 2.06 billion (USD 2.6 billion), marking the lowest level since 2020, according to data from the Swiss Customs Office. Overall, Swiss exports declined by just 1%, as increased shipments to Europe, Canada, and Mexico helped offset the U.S. tariffs.

Experts have advised that, according to sources close to the talks, proposals made by the Swiss government to both U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer involve Swiss refiners relocating their lowest-margin business to the United States. The offer, insiders report, also includes melting down gold bars traded in London and recasting the metal into the smaller sizes preferred in New York.

Records show that the bullion trade with the United States is, on average evenly balanced. However, this changed in the first quarter of the year as fears arose that President Trump might impose tariffs on gold. This not only created a substantial surplus but also opened up highly profitable arbitrage opportunities for traders. The first quarter distortion of Switzerland’s trade surplus figures with the United States (bullion accounted for than two-thirds of the surplus), ignited criticism of the gold industry. Attention quickly turned to the canton of Ticino, home to the world’s largest gold refining hub, through which almost all of the world’s gold passes.

Analysts suggest that the Switzerland’s gold refining industry is an easy target for U.S. politicians. However, to portray it as the villain behind Switzerland’s distorted trade surplus with the United States is considered by many to be far-fetched. The surplus, which appears to be the justification for President Trump’s 39% tariff, is, according to some experts, merely an excuse to raise levies. They note that the United States itself had a gold surplus of approximately USD 3.6 billion in 2024. The surge in gold bullion shipments from Switzerland to New York altered that balance, as many Swiss refineries operated at full capacity to melt down the 400-troy-ounce bars traded in London into the smaller one-kilogram bars preferred in New York.

Overall, the Swiss economy has remained relatively resilient. However, due to the tariffs, the government has warned that slower growth is expected for the remainder of the year. The Swiss government is currently working to diversify its trading partnerships and, together with other members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), signed a new free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc in the third week of September. EFTA comprises Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Iceland, while the Mercosur countries include Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela.

Overview for Gold Q3 and Q4 2025

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In Q1 and Q2 gold investment demand for the metal was strong with gold rising at a record setting pace of 26% (in US Dollars terms), this was mainly a result of global geoeconomics uncertainty, rangebound rates and a weaker dollar. Indeed, the US Dollar has had its worst start to the year since 1973 and with US Treasuries underperforming, (inflows faltered in April) due to heightened uncertainty in the U.S.A, inflows into gold ETFs* from all regions in the first half of the year was very strong. By the close of business 30th June 2025 total AUM (Assets Under Management) for global ETFs totalled USD 383 Billion up 41%. Total holdings rose by USD 38 Billion equivalent to 3,616t which is the highest month end figure since August 2022.

*ETF or Exchange Traded Fund – allow investors to hold a multiple of underlying assets in this case gold. It is a type of investment fund that allows investors to gain exposure to the price of gold without physically owning the metal. It is essentially a mutual fund that buys and holds gold bullion and investors can buy and sell shares in the fund on a stock exchange.

Second Half of 2025

Analysts in the gold arena suggest that the consolidation of gold in the last few months and with technical indicators showing a pause within the current uptrend that has helped ease overbought conditions has set the stage for a potentially renewed upside. Furthermore, analysts suggest that continued global uncertainty, plus uncertainty with White House policies, (especially tariffs) together with falling interest rates will hopefully maintain investor appetite especially for OTC and ETF transactions. On the central bank front analysts suggest that appetite will remain strong, remaining well above the pre-2022 average of 500 – 600t but staying below previous records.

However, those within the gold arena warn that gold prices are probably going to continue to be elevated, possibly curbing consumer demand and encouraging recycling, thus putting a negative effect on a stronger gold performance. This neatly leads on to the flip side for gold where experts suggest gold could finish the year in a positive aspect but lose between 12% – 17%. Such figures are offered to the background of demonstrable and sustainable geoeconomic and geopolitical conflict therefore reducing the need for hedges such as gold as part of investment strategies, thus encouraging investors to take on more risk. The reduction in risk would according to experts lead to the aforementioned pullback (which is equivalent to the trade risk premium*) would be triggered by a stronger dollar and rising yields would reduce overall investment demand thus leading to outflows from ETFs.

*Trade Risk Premium – The trade risk premium for gold refers to the additional return investors expect to receive for holding gold above the risk-free rate as compensation for the inherent risks associated with investing in gold. These risks can include price volatility, potential lack of liquidity in specific markets, and the possibility of negative correlation with other assets during times of market stress. Essentially, it is the premium investors demand to hold gold instead of safer, risk-free assets such as treasuries or other safe government bonds.

Conclusion

Experts conclude that there are two scenarios regarding the future of gold in Q3 and Q4 of this year. 1. Should global financial and economic conditions continue to deteriorate further, thus applying more negative pressure on geoeconomic tensions which could further aggravate pressure on stagflation, flight to safe haven gold could potentially push the metal 10% – 15% higher. 2. The other scenario according to experts is that if there is across the board major resolutions in current conflicts such as Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza plus Iran (seems fairly unlikely), then gold could well give back the gains made in Q1 and Q2 by as much as 12% – 17%. Given all the factors, analysts within the gold arena suggest that the way forward for the metal will remain dependent on monetary policy, trade tensions (tariffs), inflation and stagflation dynamics, and policy forthcoming from the White House.

Will Gold in 2025 Outperform its Record Year of 2024?

Written by Joesph Patterson on . Posted in News & Reports, Precious Stones. Leave a Comment

Gold could possibly be on for another record annual performance in 2025, up 28% through to November 2024. Even though consumer demand decelerated, this was offset by investor and central bank buying. In Asia, investors’ presence was a constant and in Q3 2024, western investment flows were fuelled by a weakening US Dollar and lower yields. However, experts suggest that this quite remarkable performance was fuelled by the role gold plays as a hedge amidst geopolitical risk and market volatility.

2024

Data released shows, without a doubt, that 2024 was a record year for gold as it increased by more than 28% where the trading average was up 22% compared to 2023. Gold also hit forty new records against currencies, plus for the first time gold demand surpassed USD100 Billion. 

Other data released shows that in many regional financial markets, volatility and geopolitical risk supported investment demand for gold, especially in OTC *(over the counter) demand. Central banks (who have been net buyers for just about 15 years) were again to the fore, continuing to add to gold reserves picking up the pace in early October 2024. As central bank began to cut interest rates, investors in the western world made a beeline to purchase gold. 

*OTC Market – OTC or Over-The -Counter trading is the process of trading commodities such as gold, stocks, bonds, and derivatives without the oversight of a central exchange. OTC trading is different from exchange based trading where transactions take place on a centralised exchange such as the London Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, or New York Stock Exchange. OTC trading takes place between a network of participants such as brokers, banks, and other financial institutions that trade directly (not via an exchange) with each other.

2025

The world waits with bated breath to see the outcome of a Trump2 presidency, and the effect the new administration’s policies will have on the economies of many countries. Many experts suggest that the Federal Reserve will deliver 100 basis points cut by the end of the year with the ECB  (European Central Bank) and their associate central banks following suit to one degree or another. Historic data shows that gold has risen by as much as 6% in the first six months of a rate cycle, with its subsequent performance swayed by the depth and length of that cycle. 

Gold’s largest markets are India and China, with both making up 60% of annual demand (not including central banks). In China, experts hope for increased economic  growth (more likely through government stimuli in the Q1 and Q2) to keep gold investment at the forefront of consumer demand. Once again, central banks are expected to have a positive impact on gold with analysts suggesting that the current trend is not likely to decelerate, and some analysts predicting central bank buying could outpace 2024. 

Conclusion

Experts in the arena suggest that gold will remain rangebound, with a dovish Federal Reserve having a positive impact on gold. However, if inflation returns to the US economy as some experts predict (due to Trump2 policies), a reversal in Federal reserve policy will have a negative impact on gold. Geopolitical problems in 2025 are expected to have a positive effect on gold, and as long as India’s economic growth remains above 6.5% demand from that country will be along the 2024 levels.

Analysts advise that currently the same factors are in plac  in 2025 that drove gold’s record breaking performance in 2024, however it could be positively impacted if Donald Trump makes good on his tariff policy and provokes a trade war with investors fleeing to safe havens such as gold. Furthermore, the gold world will be keeping an eye on China, as consumer demand will more than likely depend on improved economic growth.

Current Overview of the Gold Market: September 2024

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in News & Reports. Leave a Comment

July and August 2024 witnessed strong gains for gold, with September continuing this trend. Indeed, by the end of September, the month had seen an increase in the gold price of 4.6% to USD2,630 per oz, and witnessed eight new highs, the last one of which was seen on 26th September. However, data released shows a very marginal decline as the month drifted towards its end date.

Gold analysts suggest that the price of gold was pushed higher due to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) dropping interest rates by a somewhat surprising 50 basis points.  Analysts suggest another important factor regarding the gains in gold are the increasing geopolitical tensions that are being witnessed, especially in the Middle East and the Russian/Ukrainian war.

On the *ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) front, Global Physically Backed Gold Exchange-Traded Funds witnessed, according to data released, a fifth consecutive month of in-flows. These were recorded at 18.4 metric tons, equivalent to USD1.4 Billion. Data released revealed collective holdings now stand at 3,200 tons, with recent in-flows pushing assets under management to USD270.9 Billion as of close of business 30th September 2024.

*ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds – These are a type of investment fund, but it is also an exchange-traded product which means it is traded on a stock exchange. ETFs buy into and own financial assets such as currencies, bonds, stocks, and commodities such as gold bars. In the case of Physical Gold ETFs they invest directly into gold bullion usually held in a vault. The value of Gold ETFs moves correspondingly with the spot price of gold.

Estimates released by expert analysts showed that in September, global trading volumes rose by 7% month on month to USD259 Million per day, whilst in the OTC* market trading volumes added 10% to USD176 Billion. This year, the gold price has risen 28%, with the Federal Reserve suggesting that there are more interest rate cuts to come. On COMEX**, speculators were seen to increase their total net long position by 6% or 976 tons from August to 30th September, with data showing this to be the highest level since February 2020.

*OTC Market – OTC or Over-The -Counter trading is the process of trading commodities such as gold, stocks, bond, and derivatives without the oversight of a central exchange. OTC trading is different from exchanged based trading where transactions take place on a centralised exchange such as the London Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, or New Yor Stock Exchange. OTC trading takes place between a network of participants such as brokers banks, and other financial institutions that trade directly (not via an exchange) with each other.

**COMEX – This is the abbreviation for The Commodity Exchange and is the world’s largest options and futures market, where metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminium are traded. COMEX is a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group. 

Elsewhere, official data showed that China’s central bank, the PBOC (The People’s Bank of China), refrained for the fifth month in succession in buying gold to increase their reserves, with officials indicating the reason is due to the surge in gold prices. Experts suggest that pauses in new purchases of gold by the PBOC is that they are waiting for a more attractive entry point. On a global basis, central banks were actively buying gold from 2022 – 2023, but data shows they are currently on-track to reduce purchases in 2024. 

Experts suggest that with US interest rates due to fall, and the likelihood of continuing global geopolitical pressures, especially those emanating from the Middle East, gold will continue to climb, and perhaps the PBOC would be better off buying now rather than later. With analysts and experts alike currently forecasting gold to rise to in excess of USD3000 per ounce in 2025, investors across the gold markets may well continue to buy, pushing the price even higher.

Gold Hits Record High December 2023

Written by IntaCapital Swiss on . Posted in Industry, News & Reports. Leave a Comment

This week, gold touched an all-time high of $2,135.39 as the metal continued on a rally which started in early October of this year and has seen the metal gain 16%. Gold last reached a record high back in August 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic sparked a rush into gold as a safe haven. As the world becomes more volatile, the old adage of gold being a safe haven tends to make it increase in value.

This of course can be seen in the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the continued conflict between Israel and Palestine, providing a geopolitical risk as a reason to invest in gold. Furthermore, the dovish stance being taken on interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the United States has given the gold price some staggering momentum.

When the Federal Reserve first started hiking interest rates, assets such as bonds became more lucrative for investors due to the higher yields on offer. Consequently, the demand for gold lessened due to the fact the metal carries no interest rate thus diminishing investor appeal. Conversely, when interest rates come down the appetite for gold increases, and the prospect of easing money supply and reducing interest rates appears to have been confirmed by recent comments coming out of the Federal Reserve.

Analysts are advising that gold’s surge towards a record high was aided by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Weller, who indicated that interest rates will not have to be increased to get inflation to return to 2%. Further dovish remarks followed from the Chairman himself, Jerome Powell, who said the central bank’s policy rate was now well into restrictive territory, which suggests that rate increases have now concluded.

This potential end to rate hikes will prove beneficial to gold, as the metal tends to struggle under higher rates whilst benefiting from lower rates. Therefore, as mentioned above, gold is not only rising from geopolitical risks, (also 41% of the world’s population will go to the polls next year,) but from traders aggressively pricing in rate cuts from March 2024. Indeed, experts advise that the swaps markets are now predicting a better than even chance of a rate reduction in March 2024, and are pricing in a cut in May of the same year. The recent decline in the value of the dollar has also spurred investor interest in gold as the metal is usually valued against the greenback. 

Experts suggest that gold may well go higher as there are many investors still on the side-lines, which increases the possibilities  of further spikes/rallies in gold. Previous gold bull markets have been driven by investors using exchange-traded funds or ETFs*, but analysts advise that investors in the mechanism have seen sellers for much of 2023 down 20% from the high of 2020. 

*Gold ETFs – This is a very popular way for investors to buy gold as they do not have to go through the process of owning the metal. Gold ETFs enjoy good liquidity and investors can buy and sell shares of the ETF on the stock exchange. When a purchase of shares is made the fund manager must buy the equivalent amount in physical gold. This not only will increase the price of gold but can act as a signal to the broader market that demand is increasing thereby impacting investor sentiment.

Furthermore, experts advise that the current price of gold (down at the time of writing form the high of USD2,135.39 to USD2019.17) may well be underpinned by the continuing support of purchases by governments and central banks. For example, Poland has bought circa 300 tonnes of gold in the past few years falling in line with the Eurozone average of gold to GDP ratio. This is a covert requirement* and as such analysts suggest Poland will buy an additional 130 tonnes of gold. 

*Covert Requirement – is referred to because some central banks within the Eurozone (e.g., Belgium) refuse to be transparent with regard to the gold reserve alignment on the grounds of professional secrecy. 

Market sentiment appears to favour a bull run in 2024 as experts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut US Dollar interest rates four times in 2024. However, if inflation figures do not match market sentiment and rates are put on hold or even hiked once more, traders and investors will not hesitate to cut their positions and gold will fall back to weaker levels.

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