United States, Israel and Iran Agree to Temporary Ceasefire
A two week temporary ceasefire in the current Middle East hostilities has been agreed, but only one hour before President Donalds Trump’s deadline where he had promised to obliterate Iran. The ceasefire, which was brokered by Pakistan, includes a 10-point plan with Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz whilst on-going peace talks continue. As a result, oil fell below $100pbl, with Brent crude falling by as much as 16% to trade within a range of $93pbl – $95pbl. West Texas Intermediate also fell to around the $95pbl mark.
Those close to the agreement have advised that the 10-point peace plan includes:
- An end to attacks on Iran and its allies
- Continued control by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz
- All primary and secondary sanctions on Iran to be lifted
- US military withdrawal from the Middle East
- The release of all frozen Iranian assets
- Iran and Oman to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (USD 2 million per ship)
Interestingly, the above points are also in Farsi, however that document includes the words “acceptance of enrichment” for their nuclear plan, which for whatever reason was left out of the English version. According to a statement issued by state media, Iran will only accept an end to hostilities if the final version of the peace plan incorporates the above demands. Some of these demands have been rejected by the White House in the past, however President Trump said the 10-point peace plan was a “workable basis on which to negotiate”.
However, a number of experts have advised that the United States are unlikely to agree with some of Iran’s demands, and Democratic Senator Chris Murphy noted that with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, it would be “cataclysmic for the world”. The office of the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netan, advised that Israel has backed the decision to temporarily cease hostilities with Iran, however, the ceasefire does not include Israel’s current hostilities with Lebanon.
Experts and analysts suggest that whilst the President sees a framework to discuss a permanent ceasefire, they cannot see the United States agreeing to allow Iran to continue with nuclear enrichment. Political commentators advise that the temporary ceasefire has let President Trump “off the hook” in regard to his promise to obliterate Iran. They also note that one of the cornerstones of the attack on Iran was to get rid of the current leadership and return the country to a democratic government.
Sadly, this has not happened, in fact, nothing has really changed. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) remains the dominant force, and the old guard leadership that has essentially been wiped out has been replaced by more extreme figures. Furthermore, it should be remembered that the IRGC controls 50% of all the income from Iran’s energy exports, so if all sanctions are lifted and all assets unfrozen, this will make them even stronger.
Experts say that if any agreement is reached it will surely be a hollow victory at best for President Trump, and how this will play out in the US with the mid-terms looming could end up being totally catastrophic for the Republican party. The only other option is a resumption of hostilities, which will be a nightmare for those peace-loving citizens of Iran, and the economic and social repercussions on the rest of the world do not bear thinking about.
