Forecast Update for Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium

Analysts advise that in 2026, precious metals will hit new highs on the back of a strong 2025, but at the same time expect them to face several growing challenges as perceived risks collide with momentum, creating the setting for potential volatility.  Experts within the precious metals arena see gold, silver, platinum and palladium enjoying another breakout year, with some analysts advising the current consensus suggests gold could go as high as $6,500 – $7,000, whilst silver could hit the $160-mark, platinum could be seen at $3,000, with palladium not far behind.

Gold

Gold enjoyed a record-breaking bull run in 2025, with some analysts now expecting the yellow metal to average 38% above 2025 levels. These expectations are driven by continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases, as countries — particularly BRICS* nations — seek to diversify away from the US dollar. Further expectations suggest that gold’s safe haven status will be considerably enhanced as it is expected that the geopolitical tensions will continue into 2026, whilst global economic uncertainty will also be a driver of gold.

Bearish sentiment suggests that there are cracks in the bulls’ outlook, as currently the market is experiencing a retreat in jewellery demand*, plus central banks appear to be somewhat price sensitive. Price range across the board for 2026 differs from analyst to analyst, with average gains predicted at $4,741.97 across the year and a trading range from $3,450 – $7,150. However, as of today, gold broke another record, going through the $5,000 barrier for the first time, hitting $5,094oz, giving a pat on the back to the bulls.

*BRICS – An intergovernmental agency and an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China (all joined in 2009), followed by South Africa in 2010 as the original participants. Today, membership has grown to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with Thailand and Malaysia on the cusp of joining. Russia sees BRICS as continuing its fight against Western sanctions, and China (through BRICS) is increasing its influence throughout Africa and wants to be the voice of the “Global South”. Several commentators feel that as the years progress, BRICS will become an economic and geopolitical powerhouse and will represent a direct threat to the G7 group of nations. Currently, this group represents 44% of the world’s crude oil production, and the combined economies are worth in excess of $28.5 trillion, equivalent to 28% of the global economy.

**Jewellery Purchases – In China, the high price of gold has seen a decline in the volume of physical jewellery purchases, with January imports via Hong Kong down 40% month-on-month. A similar situation is being faced in India, where analysts are projecting a 20% contraction in gold jewellery volume again due to high prices and weak consumer demand, which is moving away from traditional heavy jewellery to lighter and more affordable designs. India and China are the world’s largest consumers of gold jewellery, together accounting for over 55% of global demand.

Silver

The metal enjoyed an outstanding 2025 with prices increasing in excess of 100%, entering 2026 with the previous year’s industrial momentum on its back. Many analysts predicted that silver would reach $100+ per ounce in 2026, and this milestone was achieved on Friday, 23rd January, when prices rose 6.9% to $102.87 — pushing year-to-date gains to over 40%.

Like gold, silver is also viewed as a haven, and the rise in silver was fuelled by failure to reach an agreement for a deal to end the Russian/Ukraine war, plus the breakdown in European USA relations. Experts also suggested that the White House’s continued attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve has also helped to push the price of silver on an upward trajectory.

Some analysts forecast silver could climb as high as $165 per ounce, with bullish market sentiment driven by structural supply deficits, rising industrial demand from solar panels and EVs, strong retail buying, particularly in China, and increased investment inflows. Safe haven appetites will continue to increase, especially as upward momentum is also fanned by what is known as “the debasement trade”*. Recently, silver hit another high of $113.22oz, another record and another pat on the back for the bulls.

*The Debasement Trade – A financial strategy where investors divest themselves of fiat currencies and sovereign bonds, and invest in hard assets such as precious metals, e.g., gold and silver. Key takeaways are rising sovereign or government debt, geopolitical instability, and inflation. Experts advise that investors have been selling major currencies and running to alternative assets such as gold (both physical and ETF), silver, Bitcoin, and even some collectables such as Pokémon cards, which recently reached an all-time high.

Debasement trading, say many commentators, will continue on an upper curve in 2026 with Europe having to deal with France and other issues. Japan has unsettled markets with the appointment of a new pro-stimulus, tax-cutting Prime Minister, raising concerns about further debt increases. In the UK, the Chancellor is preparing a budget many commentators see as potentially explosive. Meanwhile, the United States is grappling with an already unsustainable debt burden, as the President intervenes in Venezuela, clashes with both allies and adversaries, and attempts to exert influence over the Federal Reserve.

Platinum

The bull analysts are back in town for PGMs*, and suggestions are that platinum will reach $2,450/oz in 2026 due to acute market tightness. However, as at 14.20 GMT on the 23rd of January, platinum was sitting at $2,820, reflecting how investors are fleeing to safe-haven hard assets. Market deficits have helped underwrite the increase in the price of platinum, with market deficits predicted to be between 329,000oz and 460,000oz. Industrial demand is a key driver of price, especially in the areas of auto catalysts,  with the slower EVs (electric vehicles) and the rising demand for hydrogen-related technologies (PEM – Proton Electric Membrane fuel cells and electrolysers). The automotive industry accounts for circa 30 – 45% of global annual demand.

*PGMs – In the metal markets, most commonly known as Platinum Group Metals, are a group of six noble precious metallic elements, being Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Ruthenium, Iridium, and Osmium. Typically, they are highly resistant to wear and tear and tarnish, making platinum particularly suited for up-market jewellery. PGMs are used across many industries plus can be found in anti-cancer drugs, electronics, dentistry and vehicle exhaust catalysts (VECs).

Palladium 

The sentiment for palladium from many analysts appears to be on the bullish side, with many seeing the metal breaking higher this year, which reflects a physically tight market plus continued demand for hybrid vehicle catalysts. On the bear side, prices differed substantially, with the average forecast of $1,400oz with a trading range of $1,100oz – $2,100oz. On the bull side, the average forecast is $2.300oz with a trading range of $1,100 – $2,900oz. However, as of 15.44 GMT on January 23rd, the bid-ask spread was $2,112/2,152 per ounce, showing that, like other metals, the price has been on an upward path compared to some predictions, although palladium did hit a high of $2,155oz.

The late surge this month of gold, silver and PGMs has been driven by structural deficits and expectations of the US. The Federal Reserve is dropping interest rates due to intense geopolitical tensions. Safe-Haven demand has increased mainly due to U.S. military posturing near Iran, and President Trump’s threatened military attack on Greenland (on which he peddled back), culminating in a breakdown in relations with America’s European allies, plus threatening further tariffs on his allies but not his enemies.

There has been a shift away from US assets as investors rotate capital away from bonds and equities and the U.S. dollar, which fell to its lowest against the Euro since September 2021 at EUR/USD 1.19 and a four-month low against sterling at $1.37. Analysts have also advised that further central bank buying of gold this week has also acted as a price driver for the yellow metal, and even though recent rallies are unprecedented, the gold and silver markets are liable for a series of sharp corrections to the downside, excluding any profit taking, which will also soften prices.